Would Balon attacking the Westerlands really change anything?

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Let’s assume that Balon wasn’t a complete idiot and was persuaded by Theon to raid the Westerlands. Would that really have changed much in the grand scheme of things? Tywin and the Tyrells still would have made their bargain, and this would still have persuaded the Boltons and the Freys to turn cloaks. Maybe we’d still have the Starks in Winterfell, but the Stark and Tully forces would still have been broken and destroyed with Robb dead. Roose would likely still have gotten Winterfell and the North and this time he would make sure that Bran and Rickon would be killed. 

 

Or am I mistaken?

[Adam Targaryen]

I'm afraid you are, Lord Floki. Everything that happened would not necessarily have played out the same way. If The Iron Islands had joined The North, Robb's force would have been truly great. The North, The Riverlands and The Iron Islands against The Westerlands and most of the Crownlands. If the Ironborn had raided The Westerlands, Robb wouldn't have had to and he probably wouldn't have met and fallen in love with Jeyne Westerling - hence he could have married Roslin Frey and the Frey alliance would be intact. And even if Robb had married Jeyne or some other girl and slighted House Frey the same way, the Freys wouldn't neccesarily have made the same choice if they were more sure of Robb's victory. And if the Ironborn had raided The Westerlands, they probably would have gotten it done way before Robb did, which would mean a far greater victory for Robb and a greater pressure on The Westerlands. Who knows, maybe they could even have sacked Lannisport or Casterly Rock? Okay, not super likely, but still. And maybe Stannis and House Tyrell and everyone would have made different choices then as well

[Lord Lannister]

If Lannisport and the Rock were under direct threat, Tywin would be under great pressure to relieve the Westerlands rather than King's Landing. Even if the Tyrells still sided with the Lannisters, and independently marched against Stannis while Tywin went west, Mace Tyrell isn't exactly a swift commander. The city very well could have fallen and Mace would arrive just in time to begin a slow, methodical siege against the man who couldn't break before.

[Stormking902]

If Balon attacks the Westerlands Robb wouldn't of attacked the Crag which means no marriage to Jeyne, also with WF still in Stark control and Robb still promised to the Freys Roose Bolton and Walder would stay loyal. Would house Tyrell wanna align with Tywin when a victory doesn't look as guarenteed? Tywin would have to defend his lands before he defended KL so his war plan would he completely different and Stannis would probably take KL. With Robb alive he could also request more men from the North where I could see another 4000-6000 men head South to help, the same goes for the Riverlords with the Western army in the West more men could be summoned. 

[KingLordPresidentMaster]

2 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Let’s assume that Balon wasn’t a complete idiot and was persuaded by Theon to raid the Westerlands. Would that really have changed much in the grand scheme of things? Tywin and the Tyrells still would have made their bargain, and this would still have persuaded the Boltons and the Freys to turn cloaks. Maybe we’d still have the Starks in Winterfell, but the Stark and Tully forces would still have been broken and destroyed with Robb dead. Roose would likely still have gotten Winterfell and the North and this time he would make sure that Bran and Rickon would be killed. 

 

Or am I mistaken?

If the full might of the iron born attacked the westerlands they would be in big trouble and Walder Frey might take Robbs side instead of the Starks especially because robb partly had sex with jeyne because he was so damn sad. 

The Starks would help out the wall when the wildlings attacked.

I still think that he would die fighting in the riverlands because i dont think he would just abandon them.

[Howlin' Howland]

Robb Stark was "comforted" by Jeyne Westerling the night that he learned that Bran and Rickon had been killed.  If Theon never takes Winterfell it's unlikely that Robb would have broken his word with the Freys.

When Cat learned that Rickon and Bran had been killed the released Jaime.  This is what caused Rickard Karstark to murder Willem Lannister and Tion Frey.  If Theon never takes Winterfell it's unlikely that Cat frees Jaime.

If the Freys and the Karstarks had no reason to betray Robb then it's unlikely the Boltons would have risked betraying him on their own.

If Balon sides with the Starks then there would have been no Red Wedding.

And if Balon had launched the same sort of attacks that Eurone did; taking The Shields, raiding up the Mander, taking the Arbor and threatening Oldtown; the Tyrells would have reacted the same way they did against Euron, taking their fleet back west and sending a large portion of their troops home to defend their homelands against the Ironborn.

From there it's a completely different story, who knows what would have happened.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Roose didn't plan to betray Robb from the beginning. Roose kept his options open. He confirmed to Theon that he made his final decision once Theon took Winterfell. So if the Ironborn didn't invade the North, Robb would have been sitting pretty in the Riverlands and Roose would not have engaged in his betrayal. Robb would also not have raided the West, as Balon's forces would have been doing so. The Frey wedding would have gone ahead, and the Red Wedding would have never happened.

So without doing any further extrapolations, after the Whispering Wood we would have had Robb in the Riverlands with 15,000 Northmen and maybe 15,000 Riverlands troops. And 20,000 Ironborn raiding the Westerlands. In addition, Robb would have had Rodrik in charge of Winterfell and the North, serving as a powerbase for raising more troops if necessary.

We know Tywin desperately tried to head back West once Robb started raiding the Westerlands, so we can be sure that he would have done the same once the Ironborn started raiding his lands. That would have meant that Robb and his force of 30k Northmen/Rivermen could either have chosen their ground to smash Tywin's 20k host on its retreat back to the West, or have left Tywin to get back West and then sealed him off from the East.

Either way, the entire dynamic of the War is changed.

From then on a myriad of factors come into play, such as what the Vale does, what Dorne does, and how many more men Edmure can raise from the populous Riverlands now that Tywin is no longer laying it to waste. Quite conceivably 25k men could be raised from the Riverlands in these conditions, in addition to more forces from the North raising Robb's host to 25k Northmen, giving Robb 50k soldiers in the Riverlands, in addition to the Ironborn fleet.

That is a situation that begs for a peace deal, because Robb is bargaining from a position of strength. And that's without the Vale and Dorne entering the fray.

[cpg2016]

Yes, the war changes.  Ignore the nonsense being spouted about the Freys, because the importance of the Freys is vastly overstated in the fandom - Walder was going to betray Robb the moment he could, if he thought Robb was losing, and that comes from GRRM.

Balon raiding the West makes a HUGE difference, though.  Tywin's first responsibility HAS to be defending his lands, much as Robb's is.  He will not be able to keep armies in the field if his vassals are forced to go home and defend their fiefs.  It also puts the Lannisters in a much shakier position vis a vis the Tyrells.  When it boils down to it, the Iron Throne has 3 major fleets at it's disposal; the royal fleet (controlled by Stannis and nonexistent after the Blackwater), the ironborn, and the Redwyne fleet.  Then it becomes a question of whether the Tyrells/Redwynes agree to fight the ironborn, which they certainly won't do until Dragonstone falls.

The West is in for a tough time, is my point.  It's highly likely that Robb wins the whole shebang, in this case; my guess is that as time goes on, the discontent in the Vale over sitting out the war grows until a move is forced, and that will inevitably be towards the Stark camp, and not the Lannisters.

[aryagonnakill#2]

17 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Yes, the war changes.  Ignore the nonsense being spouted about the Freys, because the importance of the Freys is vastly overstated in the fandom - Walder was going to betray Robb the moment he could, if he thought Robb was losing, and that comes from GRRM.

Balon raiding the West makes a HUGE difference, though.  Tywin's first responsibility HAS to be defending his lands, much as Robb's is.  He will not be able to keep armies in the field if his vassals are forced to go home and defend their fiefs.  It also puts the Lannisters in a much shakier position vis a vis the Tyrells.  When it boils down to it, the Iron Throne has 3 major fleets at it's disposal; the royal fleet (controlled by Stannis and nonexistent after the Blackwater), the ironborn, and the Redwyne fleet.  Then it becomes a question of whether the Tyrells/Redwynes agree to fight the ironborn, which they certainly won't do until Dragonstone falls.

The West is in for a tough time, is my point.  It's highly likely that Robb wins the whole shebang, in this case; my guess is that as time goes on, the discontent in the Vale over sitting out the war grows until a move is forced, and that will inevitably be towards the Stark camp, and not the Lannisters.

The Redwyn fleet only went to Kings Landing and then Dragonstone because it was called there to lay siege to Dragonstone, they didn't really want to be there.  The Lannisters had both of Lord Paxter Redwyns sons.

In this scenario, the Redwyn fleet would have never gone to Kings Landing, and the Ironborn would likely only be able to raid the West, not the Reach.  If things did continue to move forward and the Ironborn and the Reach wound up on different sides, it would be very difficult if not impossible for them to destroy the Redwyn fleet without the element of surprise or magic.  While the Ironborn have more ships overall, the vast majority are just longships, whereas there are something like 200 warships in the Redwyn fleet that are much larger.

They could of course do a little raiding, but they couldn't just move in and capture the shields/arbor like Euron did.

[Dorian Martell's son]

4 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Or am I mistaken?

No, George needed to have theon betray Robb, hook up with Ramsay,  fake kill the Stark kids and then lose winterfell to Bolton troops 

[Dorian Martell's son]

2 hours ago, Adam Targaryen said:

I'm afraid you are, Lord Floki. Everything that happened would not necessarily have played out the same way. 

Actually, he isn't. The story is written in a very specific way, and if you alter the beginning, the story would have to right itself to work. 

[ravenous reader]

9 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Actually, he isn't. The story is written in a very specific way, and if you alter the beginning, the story would have to right itself to work. 

We could always throw in a bit of time travel -- that would surely right things...

[Dorian Martell's son]

3 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

We could always throw in a bit of time travel -- that would surely right things...

[cpg2016]

49 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The Redwyn fleet only went to Kings Landing and then Dragonstone because it was called there to lay siege to Dragonstone, they didn't really want to be there.  The Lannisters had both of Lord Paxter Redwyns sons.

In this scenario, the Redwyn fleet would have never gone to Kings Landing, and the Ironborn would likely only be able to raid the West, not the Reach.  If things did continue to move forward and the Ironborn and the Reach wound up on different sides, it would be very difficult if not impossible for them to destroy the Redwyn fleet without the element of surprise or magic.  While the Ironborn have more ships overall, the vast majority are just longships, whereas there are something like 200 warships in the Redwyn fleet that are much larger.

They could of course do a little raiding, but they couldn't just move in and capture the shields/arbor like Euron did.

Right, but they are still not helping the Lannisters in the west.

And by the way, the ironborn could have done what they wanted in the Shield Islands either way - it's made explicit that it's clever tactics that win the day, not superior numbers, because they draw the main fleet up the Mander.  And they're about to butcher a fleet in TWOW, so... yeah.

Also, it's never stated what constitutes the "Redwyne fleet".  Most likely it is a lot of merchant ships and carracks repurposed with marines.  The Iron Fleet, aside from being crewed by the best sailors in Westeros, is made up of the kinds of warships that can stand up to galleys.  The hundreds of other ships are longships as you say, but the difference in quality of ships would not be as pronounced as you think.

[Adam Targaryen]

On 2018-03-27 at 10:56 PM, Dorian Martell's son said:

Actually, he isn't. The story is written in a very specific way, and if you alter the beginning, the story would have to right itself to work. 

What do you mean? Surely things would have played out differently if Balon had sided with Robb? Because that's what I mean. What do you mean by "the story would have to right itself to work"? Do you mean that it would have to correct itself to work (and that it in fact would do so); that GRRM would have twisted the story into the same result by inserting some other factor to make Robb lose? Or have you simply misspelt the word "write"?

[aryagonnakill#2]

2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Right, but they are still not helping the Lannisters in the west.

And by the way, the ironborn could have done what they wanted in the Shield Islands either way - it's made explicit that it's clever tactics that win the day, not superior numbers, because they draw the main fleet up the Mander.  And they're about to butcher a fleet in TWOW, so... yeah.

Also, it's never stated what constitutes the "Redwyne fleet".  Most likely it is a lot of merchant ships and carracks repurposed with marines.  The Iron Fleet, aside from being crewed by the best sailors in Westeros, is made up of the kinds of warships that can stand up to galleys.  The hundreds of other ships are longships as you say, but the difference in quality of ships would not be as pronounced as you think.

The ships are described, its something like 200 real warships that we are explicitly told the ironfleet cannot go toe to toe with.  The Ironborn could attack the shield islands sure, but they wouldn't hold them if the Redwyn fleet was around.  The fleet is about to be destroyed by Euron using magic, which is a completely different scenario.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

7 hours ago, Adam Targaryen said:

I'm afraid you are, Lord Floki. Everything that happened would not necessarily have played out the same way. If The Iron Islands had joined The North, Robb's force would have been truly great. The North, The Riverlands and The Iron Islands against The Westerlands and most of the Crownlands. If the Ironborn had raided The Westerlands, Robb wouldn't have had to and he probably wouldn't have met and fallen in love with Jeyne Westerling - hence he could have married Roslin Frey and the Frey alliance would be intact. And even if Robb had married Jeyne or some other girl and slighted House Frey the same way, the Freys wouldn't neccesarily have made the same choice if they were more sure of Robb's victory. And if the Ironborn had raided The Westerlands, they probably would have gotten it done way before Robb did, which would mean a far greater victory for Robb and a greater pressure on The Westerlands. Who knows, maybe they could even have sacked Lannisport or Casterly Rock? Okay, not super likely, but still. And maybe Stannis and House Tyrell and everyone would have made different choices then as well

Fair enough. As a fan of House Stark, it’s good to be mistaken in this case. I was just persuaded otherwise by a conversation I had with another ASOIAF fan who made a convincing argument that the West would have repelled the Ironborn without Tywin’s help, since the North was only taken by surprise and didn’t drive the Ironborn out because the Bolton forces betrayed them utterly at the right moment. He also pointed out how Baelish and Tywin, both very smart men, were against the Starks and their plotting would have led to Robb’s death somehow eventually, given that the Freys and Boltons were looking for an excuse. It was a rather sad conversation to have, honestly.

[Dorian Martell's son]

4 hours ago, Adam Targaryen said:

What do you mean? Surely things would have played out differently if Balon sided with Robb? Because that's what I mean. What do you mean by "the story would have to right itself to work"? Do you mean that it would have to correct itself to work (and that it in fact would do so); that GRRM would have twisted the story into the same result by inserting some other factor to make Robb lose? Or have you simply misspelt the word "write"?

Right, as in sailing. 

[Bernie Mac]

14 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Let’s assume that Balon wasn’t a complete idiot and was persuaded by Theon to raid the Westerlands. 

Balon was not an idiot for attacking defenceless prey, he was merely following the ideology of his culture. 

Ultimately it depends on how successful the Ironborn were. Balon is certain that Casterly Rock would never have fallen and I think he is pretty correct about that. And he is unsure if he could capture Lannisport, so it all hinges on the defense of Lannisport,

• If Lannisport does not fall then Tywin remains where he is and the outcome in the South only slightly changes, the Crown still gains the Reach and the Stormlands while politically having the Vale and Dorne accept Joffrey as King while Robb is in a stronger position with the Ironborn, Freys and Boltons still with him but all of questionable loyalty. 

 

• if Lannisport does fall then Tywin has to go home, abandons the capital and may even pull the royal family from the capital (Unless there is another plan that, Tywin not being a POV and not particularly open with all of his plans, we the reader are unaware of) which changes the possibility of the Reach backing him which results in either a loss or a divided realm and a prolonged war

[Kandrax]

No attack on the North=No fall of Winterfell=No Bran and Rickon "death"=No sex with Jeyne=No RW=Freys remain more honorable.