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Would Balon attacking the Westerlands really change anything?


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On 4/11/2018 at 8:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Where is that claimed? 

"Is that wise? You are strongly placed here. It's said that the old Kings in the North could stand at Moat Cailin and throw back hosts ten times the size of their own."
"Yes, but our food and supplies are running low, and this is not land we can live off easily. We've been waiting for Lord Manderly, but now that his sons have joined us, we need to march."
 
No evidence from here that Robb was in a hurry.  And if he was in a hurry
 
  1. why did he not summon a second army
  2. why did he feel the need to take the entire Northern army, and the Freys, in a bid to retake the North

 

The simple truth is that the North was stretched thin, Robb could not have brought many more men North without impacting the safety of the North even further. 

This is actually inaccurate. 

Based on the numbers that Stannis was able to raise from the mountain clans, the North still had thousands more to offer.

The North is large and sparsely populated, making it difficult to gather large numbers quickly.

Also, the fact that their moving on as soon as Manderly's men arrive shows his sense of urgency.

As an aside, he took the entire northern army with him to draw the Ironborne attention South. He also sent men to Greywater to get assistance traveling through the neck.

The Freys were meant more as a means of crossing their bridge.

On 4/11/2018 at 8:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Of course, when he was under the impression that Stannis was occupied at Storm's End. It was Stannis' movements that made Tywin head West, not Robb's. 

You don't actually know this, because Tywin doesn't have a POV.

We know that he returns because he learns of the attack on King's Landing.

On 4/11/2018 at 8:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

eh? If there was no strength in the West then why did Robb have to sneak past the Golden Tooth, why did he not try to take Lannisport

Two things.

The reason why he had to sneak past the Golden Tooth is because it's a FUCKING FORTRESS!!

This was part of Jon's argument against attacking the Dreadfort, and the idea of Moat Cailin: a strong castle weakly defended is still a strong castle.

If I have fifty men inside and you're trying to get by, you may win eventually, but you're going to pay for it.

The other point is that he wasn't trying to occupy the Westerlands. He was trying to draw Tywin back. If he takes Lannisport, he'll certainly draw Tywin back, but once he's There, ROBB WILL HAVE NOWHERE TO GO!!

Just the ocean to his back and a lot of angry enemies in front of him.

On 4/11/2018 at 8:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Not only could he, he was. You are now arguing against events that actually happened in the books. 

You're saying he was holding the North, but was he really.

You could say he was, but in the same way that a valet holds you keys. You're leaving it unattended for a while, and sure he might go for a joyride, but once you return, he's going to give it up.

Also, to correct another point, the ironborne were being held captive in Moat Cailin, in the sense that leaving meant certain death. That's why Theon had to ride in to get them to surrender, promising sanctuary.

On 4/11/2018 at 8:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

 

On 4/11/2018 at 4:57 PM, cpg2016 said:

Not sure where you get this.  It is factually incorrect.

Both Tyrion and the author make it clear that Tywin heading to deal with Robb has more to do with Stannis' movements than it is with Robb being in the West. 

Storm's End is a hugely formidable castle, and should have been able to hold out much longer, as it did during Robert's Rebellion when Stannis was inside rather than outside. And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear. There was also the psychological aspect, as Stannis himself explains to Davos; he could not risk being seen as having suffered a "defeat," however minor.

Was Lord Tywin marching west a huge risk? Of course it was. That was why he sat at Harrenhal for so long, hoping to lure Robb into attacking him... or Stannis into committing against King's Landing. Neither of his foes would play into his hands, however. At which point he made a calculated gamble.    -GRRM

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?" -Tyrion

Robb had gone West months before Tywin left Harrnehal and after the Blackwater, with Robb still West, Tywin does nothing and we hear nothing of the lords of the Westerlands pressuring Tywin to act ergo Robb attacking the West was not as influential as he had hoped it would be. 

On 4/11/2018 at 4:57 PM, cpg2016 said:

Then we can chat.

We are already chatting. When you reply to someone you engage them in a conversation. 

 

On 4/11/2018 at 8:50 AM, Arthur Peres said:

 

1- Balon objectives

He wants lands? he can take it from the westerlands too,

Except he does not think that is possible. 

Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half. Aye, we might take Lannisport, but we should never keep it.

The North is weaker, parts of it have been ruled by the Ironborn before and has a natural choke point (Moat Cailin) that has successfully stopped all armies from the South while there are multiple entrance into the West. 

As I said, Balon may not be a genius but his decision to take the North was not on a whim but on pragmatic decision making.  The North not only offered less casualties to the Ironborn but offered a greater chance of success as well as the fact that with no Navy the North could not offer any retribution while, historically, the West has frequently got their revenge on the Iron Islands. 

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they are fertile unlike the freezy north that as Mace points out snow and rocks...Asha in her kingsmoot show us what Balon gain from that "cobblestones, pinecones and turnips"

What you are looking at is buzzwords and ignoring the fact that Asha was in complete agreement with her father in taking the North, she saw its value, she is arguing against Euron's plan to take the Reach as it is short term thinking. She wanted to remain in the North and is adamant that had her father lived they would still hold Moat Cailin.

 

On 4/11/2018 at 8:50 AM, Arthur Peres said:

 

Balon wants too much when he does not have the means to achieve.  He does not have the man power to hold the north, let alone in the middle of winter.

You are taking his words too literal. Holding the North does not necessarily mean ironborn soldiers in every town, William the Conqueror was crowned and accepted as the King of England long before he had control of the much of the country. 

"No," said Catelyn. "Leave them to guard their own, and win back the north with northmen."

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She saw how he studied his maps whenever they made camp, searching for some plan that might win back the north.

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"He has lost the north," insisted Hosteen Frey. "He has lost Winterfell! His brothers are dead . . ."

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He smiled a wet red smile. "Or should I call you the King Who Lost the North, Your Grace?"

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Mace Tyrell spoke up. "Is there anything as pointless as a king without a kingdom?

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"He ought to be offering fealty," snapped Cersei. "By what right does he call himself king?"

 "By right of conquest," Lord Tywin said. "King Balon has strangler's fingers round the Neck. Robb Stark's heirs are dead, Winterfell is fallen, and the ironmen hold Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, and most of the Stony Shore. King Balon's longships command the sunset sea

 

It is accepted that Robb had lost the North, the characters in the novel are not quibbling over semantics. 

On 4/11/2018 at 8:50 AM, Arthur Peres said:

He let his entire army trapped in Moat Caillin doing nothing.

They are not trapped, they are there for a specific reason, no one has trapped them there, Balon's orders were to stay there and once he was dead the vast majority were free to leave. 

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The moment the garrison of moat caillin goes away Robb tries to take it back.

You do understand that is precisely why they are there? Robb was either going to have to attack or would be ddefeate in the South, that is why the majority of the ironborn soldiers were stationed there. 

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His army is trapped there being poisoned by Holowand Reed milita warfare getting weak everyday while he gains nothing.

Again not trapped, they are there for a clear purpose. The gain is clear, just because it is not instant gratification does not mean there are no long term gains to holding Moat Cailin till Robb came undone. 

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He wants indepence? he is fighting the wrong enemy.

He wanted more land. How does attacking Lannisssport gain him independence? All it does is leave him weaker through the casualties that would occur from such an attack. 

Attacking the North means fewer casualties than attacking the West

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He wants wealth? The lannister had more to take.

I feel we are going around in circles. Why do muggers more commonly pick on old people than banks? Why are shops targeted by thieve more than banks? It is all about risk vs reward. Balon did not think the risk was worth the reward when it came to the West. 

 

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2- the strenght of each target

The north is not out of men power,

 

No one has claimed it was, what has been claimed by Balon is that it poorly defended in comparison to the West. 

  • The West has a Navy, the North does not
  • The Western capital is strongly defended, the Northern capital is not
  • Robb and his army are more than a thousand miles away from home, Tywin only a few hundred

These are just facts, just look at the Crag, despite the Westerlings lowly status they were left with more competent guards than Robb left his capital.

 

The North actually has an eastern navy, and there's no evidence that the what's navy is particularly large or formidable.

Also, Winterfell had a competent guard; the problem was Bran sent them to deal with another issue.

We don't see what a fully staffed Winterfell guard can do against someone who WASN'T raised there, but the Westerlings lost to Robb's host.

There's also no allusion to the quality of Casterly Rock's guard.

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On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

This is actually inaccurate. 

no, it is not. by all means quote from the books if you think it is but we both know the evidence is not there

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

Based on the numbers that Stannis was able to raise from the mountain clans, the North still had thousands more to offer.

of course they have thousands of men left, hundreds of thousands of fit healthy men left, but they are not soldiers, the men raised from the clans are (mostly) not well trained or well equipped soldiers, they are peasants who realize that there is not enough supplies for them all to survive. 

"Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned's little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks"

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It was a tale that any northmen knew well. "My father's grandmother was a Flint of the mountains, on his mother's side," Jon told her. "The First Flints, they call themselves. They say the other Flints are the blood of younger sons, who had to leave the mountains to find food and land and wives. It has always been a harsh life up there. When the snows fall and food grows scarce, their young must travel to the winter town or take service at one castle or the other. The old men gather up what strength remains in them and announce that they are going hunting. Some are found come spring. More are never seen again."

These mountain clan men are not effective soldiers, certainly not for Robb's war in the South, we only have to look at how many were killed by the tiny number of Ironborn Asha has with her when she fled Deepwood Motte. The war has been a disaster for the north and as a consequence they will have more bodies willing to risk themselves as they know the alternative is starvation for their family, many will choose sacrifice. 

And because of the war this is not just limited to the mountain clans and winterfell lands, but many other parts of the realm such as hornwood, tallhart, glover and even the karstark an umber lands. 

 "My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"

"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."
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 aye, and strong men to sail them. The Greatjon took too many. Half our harvest is gone to seed for want of arms to swing the scythes."
 
Many of the men we see getting recruited now would have been little use to Robb, being mostly greybeards, green boys or farmers, and are only an option now, in the North, because winter is finally here.  so yeah, obviously there are more men in the north, but that is the same for every realm, but no other realm counts these as soldiers in summer time and more than likely nor did Robb
 
On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

The North is large and sparsely populated, making it difficult to gather large numbers quickly.

True. I'm not sure anyone has claimed otherwise.

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

Also, the fact that their moving on as soon as Manderly's men arrive shows his sense of urgency.

there is nothing to suggest that Robb left without the amount of men he wanted. at no point, despite being desperate for his aunts help and not getting it, does he request more men, send back one of the many nobles with him to recruit more men. the north was, for many regions, stretched thin. 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

As an aside, he took the entire northern army with him to draw the Ironborne attention South. He also sent men to Greywater to get assistance traveling through the neck.

an aside to what? 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

The Freys were meant more as a means of crossing their bridge.

no, he was including them in his plans to retake the north

 Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart.

the expectation that the Freys were to leave their own lands vulnerable to help him retake his

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

You don't actually know this, because Tywin doesn't have a POV.

the author seems pretty clear on the matter. 

 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

We know that he returns because he learns of the attack on King's Landing.

yup, and we know that even after the victory, with the biggest assembled army at his disposal he does nothing, lets Robb remain in the West as long as he likes. 

his actions, as well as Tyrion an the authors comments on the matter,  indicate that Robb's actions were not enough of a threat to see Tywin have to leave the capital. 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

Two things.

The reason why he had to sneak past the Golden Tooth is because it's a FUCKING FORTRESS!!

they are all fortresses. 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

This was part of Jon's argument against attacking the Dreadfort, and the idea of Moat Cailin: a strong castle weakly defended is still a strong castle.

no, Jon's argument was that Stannis 1,000 men would be vulnerable to attack in the Umber lands before they even reached the Bolton lands

"To reach the Dreadfort, Your Grace must travel down the kingsroad past the Last River, turn south by east and cross the Lonely Hills." He pointed. "Those are Umber lands, where they know every tree and every rock. The kingsroad runs along their western marches for a hundred leagues. Mors will cut your host to pieces unless you meet his terms and win him to your cause."

and of course what makes the experienced Stannis from abandoning his plans is not the strong castle but numbers

"That will bring you to the Dreadfort," said Jon, "but unless your host can outmarch a raven or a line of beacon fires, the castle will know of your approach. It will be an easy thing for Ramsay Bolton to cut off your retreat and leave you far from the Wall, without food or refuge, surrounded by your foes."

"Only if he abandons his siege of Moat Cailin."

 "Moat Cailin will fall before you ever reach the Dreadfort. Once Lord Roose has joined his strength to Ramsay's, they will have you outnumbered five to one."

It is not the strength of the castle that stops Stannis from attacking the Dreadfort, is numbers. 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

If I have fifty men inside and you're trying to get by, you may win eventually, but you're going to pay for it.

If Robb wanted to actually get Tywin's attention he would have focused on hurting the important nobility homes and not the smallfolk. 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

The other point is that he wasn't trying to occupy the Westerlands. He was trying to draw Tywin back. If he takes Lannisport, he'll certainly draw Tywin back, but once he's There, ROBB WILL HAVE NOWHERE TO GO!!

his plan was to run away, where was he originally going to go? 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

Just the ocean to his back and a lot of angry enemies in front of him.

which is the same in both situations. attacking an plundering Tywin's capital and/or some of his prominent nobles is going to have a much greater effect on Tywin's leadership. Robb knows this, he just does not have enough strength in the West to focus on them. 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

You're saying he was holding the North, but was he really.

i'm not saying , many of the characters in the books were. 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

You could say he was, but in the same way that a valet holds you keys. You're leaving it unattended for a while, and sure he might go for a joyride, but once you return, he's going to give it up.

nothing at all like a valet, you don't have to gather up all your friends and family to go beat up the valet and try to break into your car to get back in. awful analogy

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

Also, to correct another point, the ironborne were being held captive in Moat Cailin, in the sense that leaving meant certain death 

The claim wast they were trapped there from the start, and clearly that was not the case as Victarion and the vast majority of his men left on their own accord after news of Balon's death reached them. 

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

The North actually has an eastern navy,

not when Balon made his choice, and merely having boats does not make it a navy, ship-men to man those boats make it a navy. there is a reason Manderly makes a deal with Davos, he has no one he feels capable of making that journey to Skagos

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

 

and there's no evidence that the what's navy is particularly large or formidable.

who claimed it was large?

For what it's worth, however, their ships would be larger and more formidable than the longships of the ironmen -- cogs, carracks, and war galleys of various sides, up to the great dromonds with scorpions and catapults on deck.

The Tyrells are in more or less the same position as the Lannisters, though they depend even more on their bannermen -GRRM

On 4/13/2018 at 4:43 AM, Jon_Stargaryen said:

Also, Winterfell had a competent guard; the problem was Bran sent them to deal with another issue.

no, they did not. Robb took all the trained men with him

When the distant cheers had faded to silence and the yard was empty at last, Winterfell seemed deserted and dead. Bran looked around at the faces of those who remained, women and children and old men … and Hodor. The huge stableboy had a lost and frightened look to his face. "Hodor?" he said sadly.

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The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less.

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"They don't fight very well," Bran said dubiously. He scratched Summer idly behind the ears as the direwolf tore at a haunch of meat. Bones crunched between his teeth.
"For a certainty," Maester Luwin agreed with a deep sigh. The maester was peering through his big Myrish lens tube, measuring shadows and noting the position of the comet that hung low in the morning sky. "Yet given time … Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. Many will not come back to us, and we must needs find the men to take their places."
Bran stared resentfully at the sweating boys below. "If I still had my legs, I could beat them all."

In fairness to Robb he was 15 and the two senior military officers of Winterfell, Jory and Rodrik Cassell, were with his parents leaving his primary military adviser Theon, an equally inexperienced commander  but with too much bravado. 

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We don't see what a fully staffed Winterfell guard can do against someone who WASN'T raised there, but the Westerlings lost to Robb's host.

Right, but even the Crag was left with better trained men than Robb left Winterfell, seemingly more as well. 

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There's also no allusion to the quality of Casterly Rock's guard.

There is. Balon is certain that he, even with Robb's help, would never be able to take Casterly Rock and Robb points out his own force is not even strong enough to threaten it. 

Although some lords do better than others. Tywin Lannister's infantry was notoriously well disciplined, and the City Watch of Lannisport is well trained as well... much better than their counterparts in Oldtown and King's Landing. -grrm

We only have to look at Kings Landing, despite the losses to both Jaime and Stafford's hosts he never uses the garrison at kings landing to augment his own forces nor does he send the westerland navy to the crownlands to help them. He keeps his capitals well protected, most commanders with experience do. 

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5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

There is. Balon is certain that he, even with Robb's help, would never be able to take Casterly Rock and Robb points out his own force is not even strong enough to threaten it. 

 

There is also the fact that Casterly Rock is a castle sitting on a massive rock , the logistics of trying to siege the castle would be just brutal . Even if they were able to fight their way to the castle the loss of lives would be massive and just not worth it . Tywin is in a very precarious position at Harrenhall his families fortunes and survival hangs on a thread . While Renly is in the field he has no choice but to leave the Westerlands to their own fate while he try to save Kings Landing from Renly and the Tyrells . It's only after Renly's death and Stannis's decision to lay siege to Stroms End does he make the gamble to head West and try to destroy Robb before getting back to stop Stannis before he can take Kings Landing . It's a risky move because if he gets West and Stannis moves on Kings Landing he may not make it back before Stannis takes the city and things good get really ugly for him and his family . When he heads West he has no idea what the Tyrells are going to do or what the Vale and Dorne are liable to do . There are some many variables involved at that time that anything could have happened .

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5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

If Robb wanted to actually get Tywin's attention he would have focused on hurting the important nobility homes and not the smallfolk. 

He did...

Baneford> Lord captured

Brax> Lord Killed, Heir captured

Crackhall> Lord and the 2nd son captured

Lefford > Lord Killed in battle

Jast> Lord and heir captured

Marbrand> castle taken

Westeling> Everyone captured and Castle taken

Greenfield> Lord captured

Spicer> Everyone captured and golden mines sacked by Greatjon

Lannister> Jaime Captured, 2 Kevan son's Captured, Stafford Killed

This is not counting on what he did with the smalfolk, or the generic "raided the coast, stole the livestocks, sacked the mines of nun's deep and  

6 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

yup, and we know that even after the victory, with the biggest assembled army at his disposal he does nothing, lets Robb remain in the West as long as he likes. 

his actions, as well as Tyrion an the authors comments on the matter,  indicate that Robb's actions were not enough of a threat to see Tywin have to leave the capital. 

You keep calling the situation after blackwater when Robb's army was already a mess losing the Freys and the Karstarks and Tywin miracoulous won 60k new swords... prior to that Tywin was down to 20k with most of his bannerman being captured, killed or getting their lands raveshed. He was coming back to the Westerlands because he was forced to. His situation was so dire that the sellswords traded sides.

"You and your father lost too many battles. We had to trade our lion pelts for wolfskins."

6 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The claim wast they were trapped there from the start, and clearly that was not the case as Victarion and the vast majority of his men left on their own accord after news of Balon's death reached them.

They couldn't leave the MC, they couldn't help Asha, and she only had 1000 men to conquer the north... Howland Reed was poisoning their food and water, they couldn't hold MC forever. They couldn't ocupy the north, they couldn't even travel around the land during winter. Balon's plan was ridiculous. 

Balon took 3 castles MC, Deepwood Motle and Winterfell... and the biggest one (winterfell) wasn't even part of his plan.

Of the quotes you give:

"He has lost the north," insisted Hosteen Frey. "He has lost Winterfell! His brothers are dead . . ."

Not part of Balon's plan....

 "By right of conquest," Lord Tywin said. "King Balon has strangler's fingers round the Neck. Robb Stark's heirs are dead, Winterfell is fallen, and the ironmen hold Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, and most of the Stony Shore. King Balon's longships command the sunset sea

Not part of Balon's plan....and Tywin ignores his request.... a request to the crow he is rebelling against... do I need to point how dumb this is?

Balon couldn't take the north let alone hold it. He gained nothing by invading it as Asha later points out in the Kingsmoot... Theon went up against everything that Balon ordered and made the impossible when he took WF with 30 men.

Asha's offer is basically to ally with the northems against the crow, prety much Robb's and Theon's terms...  but now a much weaker north, a much stronger crown than at the time of Balon's invasion, without the help of the riverlands with the bad blood between the 2 faction up to eleven...

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On 11/04/2018 at 10:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

He wanted more land. How does attacking Lannisssport gain him independence? All it does is leave him weaker through the casualties that would occur from such an attack. 

 

1- When he tried independence before this was what he did, so yeah... atacking Tywin will help him win over his independence, knows what won't help him? atacking the enemies of the crown.

2- Atacking the west don't leave him weaker... it leaves him richer.

3- the Lands of the north gives him "cobblestones, pinecones and turnips", the lands of Westerlands are much more fertile and worth it.

On 11/04/2018 at 10:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

You do understand that is precisely why they are there? Robb was either going to have to attack or would be ddefeate in the South, that is why the majority of the ironborn soldiers were stationed there. 

Do you understand that a stationery army can't take the north? and the army  that is "taking the North" is just 1000 men and are outnumbered by Rodrik alone 2 to 1, in foreing land that the enemy knows much better?

On 11/04/2018 at 10:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?" -Tyrion

Robb had gone West months before Tywin left Harrnehal and after the Blackwater, with Robb still West, Tywin does nothing and we hear nothing of the lords of the Westerlands pressuring Tywin to act ergo Robb attacking the West was not as influential as he had hoped it would be. 

We do not have a POV in Tywin's camp.

What we have is after just Whispering Woods two of his bannermen already asking him to sue for peace, or truce with Robb.

Situation was bad for Tywin

 

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19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

He did...

Clearly not enough as Tywin does not head west after the battle of the blackwater, we hear of no uproar from the westerland nobles in kings landing demanding they go west. 

There is no indication that Robb's presence in the West was forcing Tywin to act, as logic dictates he would have sent some of his idle forces west to deal with it rather than have them all camp outside kings landing. 

I'm only going on what happened in the books.

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Spicer> Everyone captured and golden mines sacked by Greatjon

The gold is either in a castle or in the ground, it is not left sitting idly. We hear of cattle coming to the Riverlands from the pillaging, we never hear of gold. Logically the taking of these mines was more a nuisance than a genuine problem for Tywin. 

it should also be pointed out that the mines of Castamere were flooded, have been inactive since the fall of the Reynes. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

You keep calling the situation after blackwater when Robb's army was already a mess losing the Freys and the Karstarks

He didn't lose the Kartarks in the West, the Karstark cavalry only left Robb much later after returning to the Riverlands and the karstark foot only seem to have turned against Robb at the red weddding. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

and Tywin miracoulous won 60k new swords...

Negotiation is not a miracle. Look up the War of the Roses, or any longstanding military conflict, being able to negotiate other factions into allies is not a miracle, it is standard practice. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

prior to that Tywin was down to 20k

No, there was still the forces with Prester Forely at the Golden Tooth and the forces with Daven Lannister at Lannisport. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

 with most of his bannerman being captured,

seems unlikely, if not an outright lie. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

killed

do you also think the majority of the northern nobility were killed?  As there were twice as many northern nobles killed in the war of the five kings than there was westerland

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

or getting their lands raveshed.

Well this is clearly bullshit. Name all the Westerland lords whose lands were ravished? 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

He was coming back to the Westerlands because he was forced to.

Except he wasn't as he never set foot in the west, even when he had the largest army in westeros. Stannis was his priority, not Robb, 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

His situation was so dire that the sellswords traded sides.

that is what sellswords do, notice his bannermen unlike Robb's bannerman who turned sides when things looked dire for him. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

They couldn't leave the MC

No, the plan was not to leave Moat Cailin until either Robb was defeated by his enemies in the South or till he came to do them battle

It would have been idiotic to leave Moat Cailin ahead of schedule. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

and she only had 1000 men to conquer the north...

She wasn't supposed to conquer the north with 1,000 men, she was only told to take Deepwood Motte. Balon is more than clear on this in his plan and Asha even chastises Theon when he goes of script and captures Winterfell. 

It is pointless having this discussion when you are failing to acknowledge what actually happened in the books. 

 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Howland Reed was poisoning their food and water,

No, he was not, I am not sure who told you that but they were mistaken. the land around Moat Cailin is pretty much uninhabitable, thus why there is no lord in that area. With Victarion and the vast majority of the Ironborn gone and no new supplies coming from the Fever river the Ironborn in Moat Cailin are left stranded. Euron did not care about retaining the north, those men were left there to die. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

they couldn't hold MC forever.

They didn't have to. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

They couldn't ocupy the north, they couldn't even travel around the land during winter. Balon's plan was ridiculous. 

Clearly not. Robb, Cat and other Northmen acknowledge that Robb has lost the North and it needs to be won back, Tywin thinks they can hold onto the North for the winter

Lord Tywin steepled his fingers beneath his chin. "Balon Greyjoy thinks in terms of plunder, not rule. Let him enjoy an autumn crown and suffer a northern winter. 

Why do they assume it is a possibility? What information do you have that they are lacking? 

 

 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Not part of Balon's plan....and Tywin ignores his request.... a request to the crow he is rebelling against... do I need to point how dumb this is?

Sorry, I have no idea your point here. When Robb had the north the crown also ignored his requests. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Balon couldn't take the north let alone hold it.

Again, you are being far too literal, none of the characters take it as literally as you are. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

He gained nothing by invading it as Asha later points out in the Kingsmoot...

She pointed out no such thing, she is stressing the point that lands are more important than plunder, plunder is short term thinking. 

If my father still lived, Moat Cailin would never have fallen. Balon Greyjoy had known that the Moat was the key to holding the north. Euron knew that as well; he simply did not care.

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Theon went up against everything that Balon ordered and made the impossible when he took WF with 30 men.

Showing that the North was actually even weaker than Balon thought. Balon clearly overestimated how strong the north was, you have just proven his point. 

19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Asha's offer is basically to ally with the northems against the crow

Obviously, they have already left. Balon's longterm planning was ended when he died and their armies (mostly) left the north allowing a northern army back into the north, the entire point that VIctarion's presence was needed to avoid

 

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

1- When he tried independence before this was what he did, so yeah... atacking Tywin will help him win over his independence, knows what won't help him? atacking the enemies of the crown.

It helped him gain more lands and it did not piss of the sitting king of westeros like his actions a decade earlier. it was the smart move to make

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

2- Atacking the west don't leave him weaker... it leaves him richer.

Of course it leaves him weaker, they have a navy, their homelands are better defended and Tywin is closer to his home than Robb is to his. 

Attacking the West means more ironborn lose their lives, it leaves Balon weaker. 

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

3- the Lands of the north gives him "cobblestones, pinecones and turnips", the lands of Westerlands are much more fertile and worth it.

Everyone is well aware that the West is richer than the North, not sure why you keep on bringing it up. They are also better defended. 

Though I have to say you are downplaying the North's importance, they have more forest land than any other realm and the Ironborn need forests. 

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Do you understand that a stationery army can't take the north?

What do pencils and pens have to do with this discussion? 

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

and the army  that is "taking the North" is just 1000 men

No it is not, you are confusing the force tasked with taking Deepwood Motte with the Ironborn's entire force. 

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

 

We do not have a POV in Tywin's camp.

and? 

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

What we have is after just Whispering Woods two of his bannermen already asking him to sue for peace, or truce with Robb.

similar to Robb's camp after the battle of the whispering wood as both Stevron and Cat suggest the same., 

plus Marbrand points out how idiotic Swyft is sounding

"Two battles do not make a war," Ser Addam insisted. "We are far from lost. I should welcome the chance to try my own steel against this Stark boy."

20 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Situation was bad for Tywin

 

Off course it was, it was a multi factioned war, that is always a danger for all participants of such wars. 

Tywin was hugely unlucky to be fighting to sit his grandson on a throne that should have been rightfully his, the actions of hi children made it hugely unlucky, not only that Stannis and Robb both have magical advantages. 

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The North lacked ships and was in open rebellion against the Crown with most of their fighting forces in the Riverlands. That's why Ned told Catelyn to keep Theon hostage no matter what. The North was the easiest pickings for the Iron Born and Balon wanted fast victories and castles to go along with his new Kingship.

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:
1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:
2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Quote

seems unlikely, if not an outright lie. 

Quote

I've already point out the cases we know by name, but if you still want to disagree...

Perhaps they would consent to a truce, and allow us to trade our prisoners for theirs,” offered Lord Lefford.
“Unless they trade three-for-one, we still come out light on those scales,” Tyrion said acidly.

Three to one disavantage after only WW..then you have Oxcross the battle of the fords and the Fall of Harenhall that free the northem lords.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

do you also think the majority of the northern nobility were killed?  As there were twice as many northern nobles killed in the war of the five kings than there was westerland

Quote

Only after the Blackwater where Karstark rebelled, Roose turned sides and send them in suicide missions and the Red Wedding... Again prior to Blackwatter Tywin bannermen were being picked off one by one, captured or killed. Crakchall, Lefford, Jast, Brax, Westerling, Estreen, Greenfield, Bannefort.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Negotiation is not a miracle. Look up the War of the Roses, or any longstanding military conflict, being able to negotiate other factions into allies is not a miracle, it is standard practice. 

Quote

Yes... now point me in history where rebbels against the crow, turned friends with the crow when the crow was weaker than when they rebelled, and pretty much won the war for them...

In one night Tywin was beat in the Fords, cut off from his homeland, his son and nephews prisioners, a army ocupying his homeland and another marching on his capital, one night later his war is won... that is lucky no matter whatcide you say.

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

similar to Robb's camp after the battle of the whispering wood as both Stevron and Cat suggest the same., 

plus Marbrand points out how idiotic Swyft is sounding

"Two battles do not make a war," Ser Addam insisted. "We are far from lost. I should welcome the chance to try my own steel against this Stark boy."

The only person asking for peace in Robb's camp is Catelyn and she is ignored by everyone. The closest to that is the Freys that say that they should wait Renly Stannis or Joffrey fight each other to death, and bend the knee to the winner or opose him whe he is weaker...the one to opose being obviously Joffrey. 

 

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Well this is clearly bullshit. Name all the Westerland lords whose lands were ravished? 

Quote

We don't know the locations or the seats in the westerlands, but we do know that Tywin tried to go back only to be stopped by Edmure. Stop ignoring it. Tywin was lured into the West, this is a fact.

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Off course it was, it was a multi factioned war, that is always a danger for all participants of such wars. 

Tywin's Lords didn't even knew that Renly crowed himself... Tywin made them leave the room and only told it only to Tyrion and Kevan

Our position is worse than you know,” his father went on. “It would seem we have a new king.”
Ser Kevan looked poleaxed. “A new—who? What have they done to Joffrey?”
The faintest flicker of distaste played across Lord Tywin’s thin lips. “Nothing. . . yet. My grandson still sits the Iron Throne, but the eunuch has heard whispers from the south. Renly Baratheon wed Margaery Tyrell at Highgarden this fortnight past, and now he has claimed the crown. The bride’s father and brothers have bent the knee and sworn him their swords.”
“Those are grave tidings.” When Ser Kevan frowned, the furrows in his brow grew deep as canyons.

Against Robb alone, after only WW we already have 2 lords asking to sue for peace, after Oxcross and with the news of Renly how much would they take it? Tywin was the clear loser until the miracle of Blackwater happen

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Why do they assume it is a possibility? What information do you have that they are lacking? 

The information that Theon also lost Winterfell to Ramsey.

"Balon Greyjoy thinks in terms of plunder, not rule. 

Guess what has more to plunder...

Let him enjoy an autumn crown and suffer a northern winter.

.it's never stated that Balon would hold the north during winter... in fact let him suffer it.

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13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I've already point out the cases we know by name, but if you still want to disagree...

You have shown he had nobles captured, as did Robb, but you have claimed that most of the Westerland nobility were captured or killed, that is complete bullshit. 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Perhaps they would consent to a truce, and allow us to trade our prisoners for theirs,” offered Lord Lefford.
“Unless they trade three-for-one, we still come out light on those scales,” Tyrion said acidly.

As pointed out Robb's council also had people in favor of peace and a truce to exchange prisoners, not sure what your point is. 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Three to one disavantage after only WW

what? how so? 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

..then you have Oxcross the battle of the fords and the Fall of Harenhall that free the northem lords.

lol you mean the fall of Harrenhal after Tywin and his army left it?

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Only after the Blackwater where Karstark rebelled, Roose turned sides and send them in suicide missions and the Red Wedding...

We know of more of Robb's side being killed or captured before the battle of the blackwater than we of the westerlands

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Again prior to Blackwatter Tywin bannermen were being picked off one by one,

no, they were not. 

and i'd also point out that the northern nobility bodycount was higher than the westerland noble boycount before the battle of blackwater. 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

captured or killed. Crakchall, Lefford, Jast, Brax, Westerling, Estreen, Greenfield, Bannefort.

captured or killed; Hornwood (x2), Cerwyn (x2), Kartark (x2), Manderly, Locke, Tallhart, Cassell

and that is just the northern nobles, the riverland nobles also seen significant captures and deaths, that is what happens during long running wars, the casualty list will climb

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Yes... now point me in history where rebbels against the crow, turned friends with the crow when the crow was weaker than when they rebelled, and pretty much won the war for them...

I'm sorry, I have no idea what you are talking about. Who is the crow? What does the Nights Watch have to do with this discussion? 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

In one night Tywin was beat in the Fords, cut off from his homeland, his son and nephews prisioners, a army ocupying his homeland and another marching on his capital, one night later his war is won... that is lucky no matter whatcide you say.

how is that lucky, that sounds incredibly unlucky. 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

The only person asking for peace in Robb's camp is Catelyn and she is ignored by everyone.

the only person asking for peace in Tywin's camp is Swyft and he is ignored by everyone

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

The closest to that is the Freys that say that they should wait Renly Stannis or Joffrey fight each other to death, and bend the knee to the winner or opose him whe he is weaker...the one to opose being obviously Joffrey. 

same is exactly true in the Westerland camp, Robb had not yet crowned himself, he was seen as less of a threat than either Renly or Stannis

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

We don't know the locations or the seats in the westerlands, but we do know that Tywin tried to go back only to be stopped by Edmure.

he was stopped from going one route, he does not turn around until he hears of Stanniss

 "you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once"

the author seems clear on this. The Westerlands is not like the North, there are multiple entrances into the West, what Edmure had done was successfully block the quickest entrance. 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Stop ignoring it.

no one is ignoring it

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Tywin was lured into the West, this is a fact.

Except he never entered the West, so it is not a fact. Robb remains in the West for a few more months after the battle of the blackwater and Tywin does nothing. Robb being there is not the big deal you are making it out to be. 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin's Lords didn't even knew that Renly crowed himself...

Kevan did not even know, the news had only just reached Tywin. I'm not sure your point, once the North joined the war it became a war of multi factions. 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Against Robb alone,

they were never against Robb alone though, they were initially against the Riverlands and Tywin, like any commander with common sense, made sure that both the Westerland's capital and the Crown capital were well defended. 

Tywin's planning was the expectation that others could join the war against him he was looking at the long term strategists, Robb never considered this, there was no real longterm planning from Robb. Tywin was playing chess while Robb checkers.

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

after only WW we already have 2 lords asking to sue for peace,

no, one lord one asking for a truce, just like Robb's camp. 

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

after Oxcross and with the news of Renly how much would they take it? Tywin was the clear loser until the miracle of Blackwater happen

and yet no mutinies like Robb suffered from the Boltons, Karstarks and Freys

Only one of them was in such a bad position that his own men turned against him

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

.it's never stated that Balon would hold the north during winter... in fact let him suffer it.

it is right their in that quote. 

none of the characters in the series share your opinion that it was impossible for the Ironborn to hold the North. 

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On 4/11/2018 at 9:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Both Tyrion and the author make it clear that Tywin heading to deal with Robb has more to do with Stannis' movements than it is with Robb being in the West. 

Storm's End is a hugely formidable castle, and should have been able to hold out much longer, as it did during Robert's Rebellion when Stannis was inside rather than outside. And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear. There was also the psychological aspect, as Stannis himself explains to Davos; he could not risk being seen as having suffered a "defeat," however minor.

Was Lord Tywin marching west a huge risk? Of course it was. That was why he sat at Harrenhal for so long, hoping to lure Robb into attacking him... or Stannis into committing against King's Landing. Neither of his foes would play into his hands, however. At which point he made a calculated gamble.    -GRRM

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?" -Tyrion

Robb had gone West months before Tywin left Harrnehal and after the Blackwater, with Robb still West, Tywin does nothing and we hear nothing of the lords of the Westerlands pressuring Tywin to act ergo Robb attacking the West was not as influential as he had hoped it would be. 

Tywin is sitting in Harrenhal for exactly the reasons you offer.  Because he is keeping an eye on both Stannis and Robb from a strategically important place.  But he marches west before the Battle of the Blackwater.  In other words, he marches west despite Stannis still being a threat in his rear.

And Robb is emphatically not in the Westerlands for months before Tywin marches.  We know that he is in Riverrun when he decides to send Cat south to deal with Renly, having not yet marched on the West.  However long you think it takes Catelyn to get to Renly's camp, it's hard to imagine it takes much longer than Robb marching a full army into the West.  Lets say it takes her an extra week, to be super generous.  So Robb has now been in the Westerlands for a week.  He waits outside Storm's End for 2 weeks, and then it takes him another 3 weeks to get up to King's Landing.  So at most, Robb is in the Westerlands for a month and a half at the time of the Battle of the Blackwater.

Now, of course, Tywin marches west long before this, as he has time to march to his tactical defeat at the Battle of the Fords, march all the way to Bitterbridge, and then up to Kings Landing in the space of those 5 or so weeks.  Which, again, strongly implies that he left for the West at almost the very moment he heard Robb had won at Oxcross and the Northerners were pillaging the Westerlands.  There just isn't time for anything else.  Tywin's move is not motivated by Stannis' actions, because the situation with Stannis doesn't change before he moves.  What changes is Oxcross; Tywin is explicitly waiting for that second army so he can both crush Robb between him and Stafford, and then deal with the Brothers Baratheon.

I think your version of the timeline is a little effed up, sir.  Robb attacking the Westerlands had exactly the desired effect.  Tywin Lannister left his effectively impregnable, and highly strategic, position at Harrenhal.  He was there because it afforded him a safe spot to keep and eye on both Robb and the Baratheons.  By leaving, he gives up one of those two advantages.  The only reason he doesn't totally abandon Kings Landing is because Edmure contests him at the Battle of the Fords.

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On 4/14/2018 at 4:08 AM, Bernie Mac said:

no, it is not. by all means quote from the books if you think it is but we both know the evidence is not there

Are you joking?  The evidence is there, you just don't ever bother to do your own research.  You make an assumption and present it as fact.  Shall I disprove this for you?

There are at least 2,500 men present at the Battle of Winterfell.  The Boltons show up with 600, and there are a little under 2,000 men with Rodrik Cassel.  So lets call it 2,500.  There are another 2,000 to 3,000 men the Hill Clans provide to Stannis, according to Jon Snow.  Lets average it to 2,500.  He finds another 1,000 men in the North somewhere (he has 5,000 before the Battle of Ice, and came north with no more than 1,500).  So 6,000.

Now, Roose Bolton has several thousand men in Winterfell as well.  We know in addition to his own men, he has 2,000 Freys, and neither group counts.  However, we know Whoresbane Umber has 400 men, which is half the strength of House Umber, which means at least 400 Umber men remained in the North.  Arnolf Karstark brings 400-500 to Stannis.  Wyman Manderly brings 300 to Winterfell.  So already another 1,000.  We know Barbrey Dustin sent as few men south as she dared, so I think it's reasonable to assume she can levy at least the same 4-500 men as House Karstark.  So there is another 1,500-2,000 men.

In other words, without even taking into account men left behind as garrisons, unlevied troops, etc, we know that there are at minimum 7,500 to 8,000 Northern levies that Robb could have conceivably called upon without leaving the various castles and towns completely defenseless.

I think Robb marches south with something like 20,000 men, right?  Too lazy to look that up.  Which means a full 30% of the available Northern strength was still sitting at home in the North.  "Stretched thin" is the Lannisters after Oxcross.  Being able to raise a second host isn't stretched thin.  Robb didn't call on those troops because at first he didn't have time, then he didn't need them, and then he couldn't.

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12 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Are you joking?  The evidence is there,

the evidence is there for what? as I said the north was already stretched, there was not many more thousands Robb could have taken south, men were needed to stay at home to farm and to protect their own lands. 

taking more would only have made the north even  more vulnerable

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you just don't ever bother to do your own research.  You make an assumption and present it as fact.  Shall I disprove this for you?

what exactly do you think you are disproving? 

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There are at least 2,500 men present at the Battle of Winterfell. 

right, and we know that some of Rorik's host were simply not an option for Robb given that they were untrained teenagers when Robb had already left

The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less.

it is likely that it was not just the Stark, Umbers and Karstarks who were stuck with green boys and greybeards after Robb left. 

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The Boltons show up with 600, and there are a little under 2,000 men with Rodrik Cassel.  So lets call it 2,500.  There are another 2,000 to 3,000 men the Hill Clans provide to Stannis, according to Jon Snow.

what does this have to do with my claim that the north's military was stretched thin? these mountain clan men have only became an option now that it is winter. when Bran and Rickon were taken hostage they did nothing as it was still summer and they had more important matters to deal with, it is only now that it is winter are they willing to sacrifice themselves. 

 

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  Lets average it to 2,500.  He finds another 1,000 men in the North somewhere (he has 5,000 before the Battle of Ice, and came north with no more than 1,500).  So 6,000.

most are remnants from Rodrik Cassels host

… more northmen coming in as word spreads of our victory. Fisherfolk, freeriders, hillmen, crofters from the deep of the wolfswood and villagers who fled their homes along the stony shore to escape the ironmen, survivors from the battle outside the gates of Winterfell, men once sworn to the Hornwoods, the Cerwyns, and the Tallharts. 

you appear to be counting some soldiers twice

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Now, Roose Bolton has several thousand men in Winterfell as well. 

yes, he returned home with the majority of them. these are not new recruits, once again you seem to be counting some soldiers twice

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 However, we know Whoresbane Umber has 400 men, which is half the strength of House Umber, which means at least 400 Umber men remained in the North.

yup, and these two forces are described in the books

"As you will. Tell me, Theon, how many men did Mors Umber have with him at Winterfell?"
"None. No men." He grinned at his own wit. "He had boys. I saw them." Aside from a handful of half-crippled serjeants, the warriors that Crowfood had brought down from Last Hearth were hardly old enough to shave. "Their spears and axes were older than the hands that clutched them. It was Whoresbane Umber who had the men, inside the castle. I saw them too. Old men, every one." Theon tittered. "Mors took the green boys and Hother took the greybeards. All the real men went with the Greatjon and died at the Red Wedding.
 
which we already suspected since as long ago as ACOK we knew how stretched the Umbers were
 
It's longships we need, aye, and strong men to sail them. The Greatjon took too many. Half our harvest is gone to seed for want of arms to swing the scythes."
 
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  Arnolf Karstark brings 400-500 to Stannis.

yes, but going on Aly's description of the state of karhold it seems the kartarks were stretched thin

"My lady, how do things stand at Karhold with your food stores?"
"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war. Crops withered in the fields or were pounded into the mud by autumn rains. And now the snows are come. This winter will be hard. Few of the old people will survive it, and many children will perish as well."
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  Wyman Manderly brings 300 to Winterfell.  So already another 1,000.  We know Barbrey Dustin sent as few men south as she dared, so I think it's reasonable to assume she can levy at least the same 4-500 men as House Karstark.  So there is another 1,500-2,000 men.

which means what? how is this evidence that the north was not stretched? 

are you really arguing that Robb should have taken these men south with him? 

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In other words, without even taking into account men left behind as garrisons, unlevied troops, etc, we know that there are at minimum 7,500 to 8,000

no we don't, as for some odd reason you decided to double count some of the troops and for some reason have decided to bring up the freys into the conversation. 

but yeah, I imagine the North's total soldiers is between 30-35k, not once have I ever disputed that, but having those numbers does not mean the north can send them all south, or even allow many of them to leave their own lands. 

even with Robb only bringing 20k south with him the north became vulnerable, some like the Hornwoods and Glovers were to weak to defend themselves, others like the Umbers and Kastarks had issues with the bringing in the harvests, the north being stretched thin is something we have seen, Robb taking even more men was not the solution. 

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Northern levies that Robb could have conceivably called upon without leaving the various castles and towns completely defenseless.

the North was already strecthed thin, taking more men, some who would have been needed on the farms or to defend their own lands, would have been idiotic

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I think Robb marches south with something like 20,000 men, right?  Too lazy to look that up.  Which means a full 30% of the available Northern strength was still sitting at home in the North.

come on, that seems unlikely. not all soldiers are viable options to travel a thousand miles away from their homes,not during summer when they were needed to help farm. especially when many of these '30%' are untrained greenboys or greybeards on their last legs

all i'm asking is to be a little bit more pragmatic in your thinking. 

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"Stretched thin" is the Lannisters after Oxcross.

I agree. but the same applies to the North, neither region could afford to send out more men out of their homeland, it only endangers them

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  Being able to raise a second host isn't stretched thin.  Robb didn't call on those troops because at first he didn't have time, then he didn't need them, and then he couldn't.

he couldn't call upon a second host to go south because the north simply did not have the numbers for it. perhaps had they stored more food Robb could have called upon a second host come winter, but not until then.

 

13 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Tywin is sitting in Harrenhal for exactly the reasons you offer.  Because he is keeping an eye on both Stannis and Robb from a strategically important place.  But he marches west before the Battle of the Blackwater.  In other words, he marches west despite Stannis still being a threat in his rear.

according to Tyrion, Stannis and the author Stannis was expected to be at Storm's End for months at a minimum. 

Tywin leaving Harrenhal had far more to do with Stannis than it did Robb. 

Quote

And Robb is emphatically not in the Westerlands for months before Tywin marches.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8

25th day of the 3rd month Robb is in the Westerlands

25th day of the 6th month Tywin marches West

8th day of the 9th month end of the battle of the blackwater

2nd day of the 11th month Robb returns from the Westerlands

 

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On 4/18/2018 at 8:01 PM, Bernie Mac said:

according to Tyrion, Stannis and the author Stannis was expected to be at Storm's End for months at a minimum. 

Tywin leaving Harrenhal had far more to do with Stannis than it did Robb.

 

 

Sieges are unpredictable  there is no way to tell how long they will last . The commander under siege can either go all Stannis and hold out till the end or they can go Lady Whent and give up at the beginning (don't forget that Stannis is the last Braetheon and the people inside Storms End had to be conflicted about not supporting him ) . Tywin staying at Harrenhall for as long as he did was all about making the best strategic decision to protect Kings Landing and  once Stannis laid siege to Storms End he made the very risky but probably the right decision to drive Robb out of the Westerlands . If Tywin is in the West when Stannis attacks Kings Landing he has very little chance to get back to help them so the risk is massive and any attempt to deny that risk is just silly . . The only reason he would take that risk is because Robb being in the Westerlands taking castles ,plundering resources , capturing Gold Mines and probably most importantly cutting off Tywin from any help from his homeland against his enemies is a huge problem for him in the war . For all Tywin knows the war could last for months or even years (who knows what the Vale or Dorne or the Iron Islands or the Gold Company etc...are capable of ) he needs the resources of his homeland just like Robb needs to recapture the North later on to have any chance in a long drawn out war .

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2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Sieges are unpredictable

War is unpredictable, but that does not mean you can not expect certain situations to happen. 

I said Stannis was 'expected' to be there longer, he was.  That is simply a fact. 

Storm's End is a hugely formidable castle, and should have been able to hold out much longer, as it did during Robert's Rebellion when Stannis was inside rather than outside. And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear. There was also the psychological aspect, as Stannis himself explains to Davos; he could not risk being seen as having suffered a "defeat," however minor. - GRRM

At no point did I claim that he was 100% nailed onto be there, I said he was expected to be there for a long time. 

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?"

 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

  there is no way to tell how long they will last .

no one has claimed you could 100% accurately predict something like that, but you can expect certain outcomes. A castle of Storm's Ends strength can reasonably be predicted to last for months against an enemy. This is not a case of flipping a coin to reach a decision but taking a reasoned guess on the outcome. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

War is unpredictable, but that does not mean you can not expect certain situations to happen. 

I said Stannis was 'expected' to be there longer, he was.  That is simply a fact. 

 

what fact are you talking about ? the castle fell very quickly when the shadowbaby killed Penrose and Stannis was on his way to Kings Landing in a very short time after Tywin heads to the Westlands  . Tywin could not have been more wrong about how long the castle would last , he would have just barely gotten into the Westlands before the castle fell if Edmure had not slowed him down . No matter how long Tywin expected or hoped the castle would hold out it still was very risky to make the move west , once he got there  he would have to engage Robb and defeat him and then head back east as fast as possible because at any time the castle could fall or be given up or Stannis could just decide to forget about the castle and head to Kings Landing . It was just a massively risky move by Tywin but the right move in my opinion just like Robb's attack on the West was the right move no matter how it turned out .

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

what fact are you talking about ?

The fact that multiple characters, including Stannis himself, point out that he should have been there longer. he was expected to be there longer, that is a fact. 

The only reason he was not there longer was because he had a magical shadowbaby, this is not something that others could have expected. 

30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

the castle fell very quickly when the shadowbaby killed Penrose and Stannis was on his way to Kings Landing in a very short time after Tywin heads to the Westlands  . Tywin could not have been more wrong about how long the castle would last ,

Yes, as he had no idea that magical shadow babies are now a part of medieval warfare. that is not something he could have reasonably expected. same goes for Renly against Stannis. 

30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

. No matter how long Tywin expected or hoped the castle would hold out it still was very risky to make the move west ,

Of course, that is the nature of warfare, there is no such thing as a 'sure thing', but commanders in war can have expectations and Stannis, due to a combination of his personality, the importance of the Stormlands capital and how well protected it is, was expected to be there for longer than he was. 

 

the characters in the book point out that Stannis was expected to be there longer, I really don't understand what your problem with this is. 

 

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Is this old, dead horse being beaten again?

The reasons why Robb could not raise the full strength of the North at the start of the war have been discussed at length. And similarly, the reasons why he could not raise more reinforcements after Winterfell had fallen and each lord was looking out to protect his own lands against the raiding Ironborn have also been discussed to death.

Torhenn Stark marched 30,000 Northmen into the Riverlands in a single host. That means that there will be well more than that in total in the North if raised in separate hosts without the need to logistically support them all in one place at any given time.

Also, Dorne has demonstrated a rough strength of around 30k warriors over the centuries, and we know the North is more populated than Dorne.

So quite aside from any specific quotes of remaining strength in the North - of which there are plenty - at a macro level the North must be able to raise at least 35k men, and quite likely well above that level. So the idea that Robb's 19500 men represented the extent of his military strength is quite clearly flawed.

If Winterfell was intact with a Stark in charge and with a united North under it, Robb could have had a second 19k army following on the first, had he requested it, and given enough time to raise it.

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4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Is this old, dead horse being beaten again?

Participation in this thread is not mandatory, you are free to ignore it if you think you have spent enough time discussing the subject. Not everyone will have seen the same previous topics. 

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The reasons why Robb could not raise the full strength of the North at the start of the war have been discussed at length. And similarly, the reasons why he could not raise more reinforcements after Winterfell had fallen and each lord was looking out to protect his own lands against the raiding Ironborn have also been discussed to death.

Yeah, not sure your point. The literature is what is canon. We can all sit around here and come to a conclusion amongst ourselves that Robert was really born Roberta and convinced the world that she was a man, it is not going to make it true no matter how many like minded people who agree with us. 

In the books that GRRM has wrote many regions of the North are stretched thin. There are multiple examples of this in the text, this is not a claim that is being pulled out of thin air.

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Torhenn Stark marched 30,000 Northmen into the Riverlands in a single host.

Yes he did, 300 years ago. What was possible 3 centuries ago may not be possible in the present period. We also see such a host assembled for only a few weeks. Robb's army was needed for more than a year, logistics is an important part of any army.

  • On top of that we have no idea the season this happened in, had it been winter there is a chance that he was able to bring all the useless mouths that would have starved regardless. 
  • We don't know how long he could have maintained such a host, they quickly departed, it may be Torhen did not have the food or even arms for such a host
  • We don't know the effects that this had on the North. With Robb's host gone we know the North was vulnerable to attack both domestic and foreign, we know that some lords could not properly defend themselvess, we know that some struggled with their harvests as a result.
4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That means that there will be well more than that in total in the North if raised in separate hosts without the need to logistically support them all in one place at any given time.

No it does not, it does not rule this out but no conclusion can be made just because Torhen briefly raised a larger host 3 centuries ago. 

Robb's host had been active for months, there simply may not have been the resources to feed and equip another host. 

On top of that we don't know much about the circumstances of the North three centuries ago. We now that the North fought in two major civil wars in the previous 16 years of Robb calling his banners, such wars would have an effect on how many men were available to Robb, how many men were there to farm the lands, how much supplies were needed to survive the winter these are all pertinent factors and without knowing if Torhen was similarly hindered it is impossible to presume that Robb had access to the same pool of resources as his ancestor. 

It may well be that without Robert's Rebellion and the Greyjoy Rebellion Robb may have been able to raise a 30k army, but these are important factors. 

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Also, Dorne has demonstrated a rough strength of around 30k warriors over the centuries,

We don't know that. What historical examples do you have of Dorne raising 30k warriors? 

And lets be real, Dorne has mostly fought within their own borders, it has mostly been guerrilla warfare,  you are talking about raising another host for another foreign invasion, travelling hundreds, some over a thousand miles. The logistics for this are completly different. 

I have no doubt that in its own borders the North, under invasion, can raise and arm another 10k over what we have already seen in the books (the same goes for every region), but I'd also imagine that the majority of that 10k would be green boys and greybeards and not of much use (again, the same goes for every region). 

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

and we know the North is more populated than Dorne.

We suspect, we don't know. I find it hard to believe that Doran is aware of the populations of every other region. I have significant doubts that the iron islands has more people than Dorne. 

On top of that, what does this really mean? Without knowing approximately the differences in population this information is close to useless, it could be ten thousand or it could be 10 million. 

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So quite aside from any specific quotes of remaining strength in the North - of which there are plenty - at a macro level the North must be able to raise at least 35k men,

How do you think you have proven that? 

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

and quite likely well above that level. So the idea that Robb's 19500 men represented the extent of his military strength is quite clearly flawed.

has anyone in this thread claimed that the 19.500 is the extent? I know I have not, perhaps you could quote the person in this thread that made that claim. My claim is that they have been stretched thin, which they have.

We have seen around 27k raised in the North, I'd guess there are a few thousand more, over 30k but it seems unlikely that it would be over 35k on what we have seen, not unless Skagos is far more populated than the limited details of that island suggest. 

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

If Winterfell was intact with a Stark in charge and with a united North under it, Robb could have had a second 19k army following on the first, had he requested it, and given enough time to raise it.

Seems unlikely. The North was already stretched thin, harvests having been affected and it being unable to defend itself. Arming and supplying another 19k host to spend months away from the North would only have sped up its capitulation. It would have been the action of a madman. 

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13 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Participation in this thread is not mandatory, you are free to ignore it if you think you have spent enough time discussing the subject. Not everyone will have seen the same previous topics. 

Yeah, not sure your point. The literature is what is canon. We can all sit around here and come to a conclusion amongst ourselves that Robert was really born Roberta and convinced the world that she was a man, it is not going to make it true no matter how many like minded people who agree with us. 

In the books that GRRM has wrote many regions of the North are stretched thin. There are multiple examples of this in the text, this is not a claim that is being pulled out of thin air.

Yes he did, 300 years ago. What was possible 3 centuries ago may not be possible in the present period. We also see such a host assembled for only a few weeks. Robb's army was needed for more than a year, logistics is an important part of any army.

  • On top of that we have no idea the season this happened in, had it been winter there is a chance that he was able to bring all the useless mouths that would have starved regardless. 
  • We don't know how long he could have maintained such a host, they quickly departed, it may be Torhen did not have the food or even arms for such a host
  • We don't know the effects that this had on the North. With Robb's host gone we know the North was vulnerable to attack both domestic and foreign, we know that some lords could not properly defend themselvess, we know that some struggled with their harvests as a result.

No it does not, it does not rule this out but no conclusion can be made just because Torhen briefly raised a larger host 3 centuries ago. 

Robb's host had been active for months, there simply may not have been the resources to feed and equip another host. 

On top of that we don't know much about the circumstances of the North three centuries ago. We now that the North fought in two major civil wars in the previous 16 years of Robb calling his banners, such wars would have an effect on how many men were available to Robb, how many men were there to farm the lands, how much supplies were needed to survive the winter these are all pertinent factors and without knowing if Torhen was similarly hindered it is impossible to presume that Robb had access to the same pool of resources as his ancestor. 

It may well be that without Robert's Rebellion and the Greyjoy Rebellion Robb may have been able to raise a 30k army, but these are important factors. 

We don't know that. What historical examples do you have of Dorne raising 30k warriors? 

And lets be real, Dorne has mostly fought within their own borders, it has mostly been guerrilla warfare,  you are talking about raising another host for another foreign invasion, travelling hundreds, some over a thousand miles. The logistics for this are completly different. 

I have no doubt that in its own borders the North, under invasion, can raise and arm another 10k over what we have already seen in the books (the same goes for every region), but I'd also imagine that the majority of that 10k would be green boys and greybeards and not of much use (again, the same goes for every region). 

We suspect, we don't know. I find it hard to believe that Doran is aware of the populations of every other region. I have significant doubts that the iron islands has more people than Dorne. 

On top of that, what does this really mean? Without knowing approximately the differences in population this information is close to useless, it could be ten thousand or it could be 10 million. 

How do you think you have proven that? 

has anyone in this thread claimed that the 19.500 is the extent? I know I have not, perhaps you could quote the person in this thread that made that claim. My claim is that they have been stretched thin, which they have.

We have seen around 27k raised in the North, I'd guess there are a few thousand more, over 30k but it seems unlikely that it would be over 35k on what we have seen, not unless Skagos is far more populated than the limited details of that island suggest. 

Seems unlikely. The North was already stretched thin, harvests having been affected and it being unable to defend itself. Arming and supplying another 19k host to spend months away from the North would only have sped up its capitulation. It would have been the action of a madman. 

Oh, I am not at all unhappy that this topic remains under discussion. In fact, I delight in it. The dead horse I am referring to is my surprise that you still hold to your flawed position on this, despite the mass of evidence that disproves it. I must admit, I thought you had mellowed from this position over time, and hence my surprise at you raising this argument again after all this time.

In this series, there are basically three positions one can take on most issues of this nature. Two are extreme and one is the middle of the road, reasonable position. Yours clearly is an extreme position, ascribing to the North the absolute smallest number of men you can package into a coherent argument. And only budging from that grudgingly once more men appear on screen in undeniable fashion. Hence your 27k admission made through gritted teeth and with many qualifications, riders and conditions.

The other extreme is to see the North as having 50-60 thousand soldiers available, as some on the board indeed advocate.

The reasonable position is to look at all the evidence, and the context of the comparative quotes about the various kingdoms, historical hosts raised etc and arrive somewhere inbetween these two extremes.

I can start going into all of that again, and indeed will do so happily if asked to, but I suspect it would bore you, as you have indeed read it all before. Let me suffice by saying that I believe the North, given the right timing, geographical settings and when fully mobilized can put 40-45k men in the field. As Martin has indeed previously roughly endorsed. But not in a single host. And not projected into a foreign battlefield, as that would be a logistical challenge of probably insurmountable magnitude, given the distances involved.

But as two or three separate hosts, yes I can see that as feasible.

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2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Oh, I am not at all unhappy that this topic remains under discussion. In fact, I delight in it. The dead horse I am referring to is my surprise that you still hold to your flawed position on this, despite the mass of evidence that disproves it.

My claim is that the North has been stretched thin.  Please cite the mass of evidence that disproves this. 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I must admit, I thought you had mellowed from this position over time, and hence my surprise at you raising this argument again after all this time.

I'm perfectly mellow, but there is zero evidence from the 5 books published to suggest that the North has not been strecthed thin by the war of the five kings. 

Your claims that Robb could have raised another 19k to bring South seem, forgive me for saying, far fetched and not based on anything we had seen in the books. 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In this series, there are basically three positions one can take on most issues of this nature. Two are extreme and one is the middle of the road, reasonable position. Yours clearly is an extreme position,

How so? What is extreme about it? 

In fact why not explain what you think my position is as you have been skirting around actually saying so, relying on vague catch all phrases

  1. What is my position? 
  2. In what way is it extreme? 

 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

ascribing to the North the absolute smallest number of men you can package into a coherent argument.

No, I claimed over 30k. 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

And only budging from that grudgingly once more men appear on screen in undeniable fashion. Hence your 27k admission made through gritted teeth and with many qualifications, riders and conditions.

lol gritted teeth? dude you have a fevered imagination. 

27K is what we have seen in the books (and some of that has been stretched by including greybeards and green boys). I have always maintained there are more than that, a few thousand more.  

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The other extreme is to see the North as having 50-60 thousand soldiers available, as some on the board indeed advocate.

Being able to raise two 19k hosts to invade the South is equally extreme. Also completely unfounded. 

Even the nearby Westerlands ran into issues sending around 35k to the Riverlands. I doubt any region, other than the Reach, can send 40k troops a thousand miles away from their homeland and not suffer dire consequences as result. Infact I doubt most regions even have the resources needed for so many men or the rations to feed them that far away from their homeland. 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The reasonable position is to look at all the evidence, and the context of the comparative quotes about the various kingdoms, historical hosts raised etc and arrive somewhere inbetween these two extremes.

Which extremes? Seeing as you have misrepresented my position and, clearly not biased at all, decided that your own position of 38k was not an extreme, you clearly are not the person to judge.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I can start going into all of that again, and indeed will do so happily if asked to,

please do. and start off with the evidence from the current timeframe. 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

but I suspect it would bore you,

no, I am all ears (or eyes). 

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 Let me suffice by saying that I believe the North, given the right timing, geographical settings and when fully mobilized can put 40-45k men in the field.

Clearly not. Why did Torrhen stop at 30k? Was Aegon not a big enough threat? Why did Robb not summon a second host? Why could Rodrik only raise less than 2k from the North? 

Where is this evidence for 45k?

 

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