Would Balon attacking the Westerlands really change anything?

[Loose Bolt]

Another thing is that if Moat Cailin is still occupied by troops that are loyal to Starks and Ramsey is either prisoner in WF or dead Roose cannot betray Starks, because he would have no way to take his army back to North. So there would be a possibility that he would lose Dreadfort and his lands. Naturally assuming that there are still a Stark in WF and that person has enough available troops to successfully invade DF.

[UnFit Finlay]

On 27/03/2018 at 5:25 PM, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Let’s assume that Balon wasn’t a complete idiot and was persuaded by Theon to raid the Westerlands.

I always think Balon is a bit hard one by with this. I mean,it's a choice between taking on one of the most seasoned, and notorious, commanders in Westeros or an unproven teenage boy. If it's me then I'm going after Robb every time.

You could argue that he was right too. Robb lost. Balon's actions certainly played a massive part in that but, he still lost.

21 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Yes, the war changes.  Ignore the nonsense being spouted about the Freys, because the importance of the Freys is vastly overstated in the fandom - Walder was going to betray Robb the moment he could, if he thought Robb was losing, and that comes from GRRM.

A bit off topic but do you have a source for that? Only I vaguely remember making the same argument once and someone posted a SSM saying that the Freys fully intended to keep faith with Robb. Which makes sense, I suppose. Walder's actions in actually fighting FOR Robb were pretty unusual given his inaction at the Trident and the first siege of Riverrun.

I'd love to see a Walder POV at some point.

[Adam Yozza]

I'd say yes. No Ironborn in the North means Robb can, if needed, call for reinforcements. An Ironborn alliance also means that Robb doesn't have to personally stay in the West and do the raiding after Oxcross; Vic and Asha would be doing that instead; and probably doing it better anyway; so Robb can take his 6k cav and do something else with them; maybe circling around and attacking Tywin's rearguard as his army tries to cross the Red Fork. Plus, he'd be able to personally ensure that Edmure doesn't stop Tywin crossing. That leaves Tywin trapped in the West regardless of whether the Ironborn capture Lannisport/CR or not, and thus unable to go and defend King's Landing from Stannis. Without Tywin there, the City would most likely fall* (Stannis would take heavy losses to do it and whether he could hold it or not is another matter). With Joff, Cersei and Tyrion dead, all that's left is Tommen; who Rosby would, IMO, almost certainly hand over willingly; and Myrcella, in the hands of the Dornish who have made no move to actively assist the Iron Throne.

*I'm saying this because without Tywin I doubt the Tyrell's would save the City. Oh I'm sure Littlefinger could still convince them into an alliance, but without Tywin turning up and essentially leading the army I'm not sure they'd rush to the City with all haste. I'm personally of the belief that they'd only get there after the battle was lost, and put the City under siege; to little effect because Stannis has control of the seas.

As to whether Balon could capture the Rock or Lannisport; well I'm not 100% certain but I think if they played their hand right they could do it. After all, the West wouldn't be expected an attack from the sea, most of their remaining manpower is with Stafford at Oxcross and gets virtually wiped out by Robb. Balon; if he timed his attack right; could at the very least burn Lannisport, if not capture it. And there's plenty of other locations that can be captured (Banefort's sort of near the sea, Crakehall, Kayce, Feastfires, Fair Isle etc.) plus a whole load of villages to plunder along the coast.

[Canon Claude]

47 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I'd say yes. No Ironborn in the North means Robb can, if needed, call for reinforcements. An Ironborn alliance also means that Robb doesn't have to personally stay in the West and do the raiding after Oxcross; Vic and Asha would be doing that instead; and probably doing it better anyway; so Robb can take his 6k cav and do something else with them; maybe circling around and attacking Tywin's rearguard as his army tries to cross the Red Fork. Plus, he'd be able to personally ensure that Edmure doesn't stop Tywin crossing. That leaves Tywin trapped in the West regardless of whether the Ironborn capture Lannisport/CR or not, and thus unable to go and defend King's Landing from Stannis. Without Tywin there, the City would most likely fall* (Stannis would take heavy losses to do it and whether he could hold it or not is another matter). With Joff, Cersei and Tyrion dead, all that's left is Tommen; who Rosby would, IMO, almost certainly hand over willingly; and Myrcella, in the hands of the Dornish who have made no move to actively assist the Iron Throne.

*I'm saying this because without Tywin I doubt the Tyrell's would save the City. Oh I'm sure Littlefinger could still convince them into an alliance, but without Tywin turning up and essentially leading the army I'm not sure they'd rush to the City with all haste. I'm personally of the belief that they'd only get there after the battle was lost, and put the City under siege; to little effect because Stannis has control of the seas.

As to whether Balon could capture the Rock or Lannisport; well I'm not 100% certain but I think if they played their hand right they could do it. After all, the West wouldn't be expected an attack from the sea, most of their remaining manpower is with Stafford at Oxcross and gets virtually wiped out by Robb. Balon; if he timed his attack right; could at the very least burn Lannisport, if not capture it. And there's plenty of other locations that can be captured (Banefort's sort of near the sea, Crakehall, Kayce, Feastfires, Fair Isle etc.) plus a whole load of villages to plunder along the coast.

The Ironborn couldn’t even hold Torrhen’s Square against the few decent men that Rodrick had at his disposal. They lost control of Moat Cailin or Deepwood Motte against crannogmen and mountain clans armed with sticks and darts and rusty swords. Their big invasion of the Riverlands was defeated by the Mallisters on their own. They stood no chance against enemies on land. 

[Blackfish Tully]

I think one of the big things about the Ironborn joining Robb would be the pressure that might put on the Reach Lords to protect their own lands . They might be less willing to join Tywin and attack Kings Landing if there are Ironborn raiding the Westerlands because it's a pretty short trip from the Westerlands to the Reach. 

[Blackfish Tully]

33 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

The Ironborn couldn’t even hold Torrhen’s Square against the few decent men that Rodrick had at his disposal. They lost control of Moat Cailin or Deepwood Motte against crannogmen and mountain clans armed with sticks and darts and rusty swords. Their big invasion of the Riverlands was defeated by the Mallisters on their own. They stood no chance against enemies on land. 

holding castles and towns is a much more difficult task than taking them . we have seen that the Iron Born are causing tremendous damage to the Reach and there is no reason to think that they would not have caused extensive damage to the Westerlands especially with Robb's army helping . 

[Canon Claude]

10 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

holding castles and towns is a much more difficult task than taking them . we have seen that the Iron Born are causing tremendous damage to the Reach and there is no reason to think that they would not have caused extensive damage to the Westerlands especially with Robb's army helping . 

Extensive damage is a bit of an exaggeration. They’ve taken the islands and attacked Oldtown, but most of the Reach has been untouched. Euron is delusional if he thinks the Ironborn can conquer the Reach. He sent the Iron Fleet on a wild goose chase, which means thousands of his best men are gone. He’s just a lunatic on too much nightshade.

[Adam Yozza]

1 hour ago, Canon Claude said:

The Ironborn couldn’t even hold Torrhen’s Square against the few decent men that Rodrick had at his disposal. They lost control of Moat Cailin or Deepwood Motte against crannogmen and mountain clans armed with sticks and darts and rusty swords. Their big invasion of the Riverlands was defeated by the Mallisters on their own. They stood no chance against enemies on land. 

They don't need to be able to hold the castles afterwards they just need to be able to take them. Once that's done, they can sack it and then leave.

[Leonardo]

21 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The ships are described, its something like 200 real warships that we are explicitly told the ironfleet cannot go toe to toe with.  The Ironborn could attack the shield islands sure, but they wouldn't hold them if the Redwyn fleet was around.  The fleet is about to be destroyed by Euron using magic, which is a completely different scenario.

Wrooooong

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Strength_of_the_Regions

 

The Iron Fleet by its lonesome may have a time of it trying to take on the Redwyne's but an even partially united Iron Isles would smash the Redwyne's provided both sides had decent commanders. The ironborn are no. 1 at sea, uncontested. They have their own large warships along with hundreds and hundreds of longships

[UnFit Finlay]

2 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

The Ironborn couldn’t even hold Torrhen’s Square against the few decent men that Rodrick had at his disposal. They lost control of Moat Cailin or Deepwood Motte against crannogmen and mountain clans armed with sticks and darts and rusty swords. Their big invasion of the Riverlands was defeated by the Mallisters on their own. They stood no chance against enemies on land. 

While I agree with the general point, I think those examples are really harsh.

Dagmar wasn't supposed to hold Torrhen's Square, or even take it. The attack was a distraction to lure Rodrick's forces away from Winterfell. They surrendered control of Moat Cailin because Victarion took the bulk of his forces to the Kingsmoot, leaving only a skeleton garrison. Likewise it was Asha's army, those rebelling against King Euron, who lost to STANNIS BARATHEON, who had a massive numbers advantage even without the the help of the mountain clans.

I agree that the Lannisters likely would've beaten them - mainly because Tywin - but using those examples would be like using Theon taking Winterfell as evidence that the Northmen can't fight. A united Ironborn, well supplied, reinforced and working with the North, might not have beaten the Lannisters but they would've caused them a lot of trouble.

[Blackfish Tully]

Robb with his 6000 or so men were able to crush Stafford's army , take 2 castles and pretty much have free run in the Westerlands , the only things he could not do was take Casterly Rock and Lannisiport , if Balon joined with Robb then who knows what kind of damage they could cause, Lannisport would probably fall and everything else would be at risk except for Casterly Rock. .

[Bernie Mac]

34 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Robb with his 6000 or so men were able to crush Stafford's army , take 2 castles and pretty much have free run in the Westerlands , the only things he could not do was take Casterly Rock and Lannisiport ,

One of those castles was described as being mostly ruin and was a destitute House that likely did not have a strong garrison compared to most. I think you are being a little disingenuous with the claim the only settlements he could not take were CR and Lanisport as if he had the strength to take places like the highly valuable and strategic Golden Tooth he would have. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

This debate is heading down the wrong track. The Ironborn don't have siege engines, they are raiders. The point would not be to try and capture Casterly Rock or Lannisport, or to try and occuppy any castle in the Westerlands on a permanent basis. The point would have been to raid the shit out of the West. Robb did so with 6000 men. The Ironborn could have done significantly more with 500 ships and 20,000 men. The West is of no use to Tywin if his lords are holed up quaking in their castles while the Ironborn lay waste and loot their lands at will. And not only on land. All Westerland sea trade would instantly cease. The Ironborn would capture every trading ship trying to enter or leave Lannisport. That would be rich pickings in itself.

So the purpose would not have been for Balon to carve off part of the West for himself. The point would have been to break Tywin's ability to play a role in the War of the Five Kings, help Robb achieve victory and as part of a final settlement get the Iron Isles independence back. And capturing boatloads of loot and plunder from the West in the process would have been a nice bonus to top it all off.

So talk about capturing Lannisport and this or that castle is nonsense. There was no need for that.

[aryagonnakill#2]

On ‎3‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 6:06 PM, Leonardo said:

Wrooooong

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Strength_of_the_Regions

 

The Iron Fleet by its lonesome may have a time of it trying to take on the Redwyne's but an even partially united Iron Isles would smash the Redwyne's provided both sides had decent commanders. The ironborn are no. 1 at sea, uncontested. They have their own large warships along with hundreds and hundreds of longships

Interesting that you say I'm wrong, then provide a link that is unrelated to the topic...

As I am not wrong, I would invite you to provide an actual reason why you think so.  If the Ironborn were number 1 at sea then they would have defeated the Redwyn fleet during Balons rebellion, in fact they clearly avoided it staying in the Westerlands and Riverlands, then when confronted by the Redwyn fleet, or the Royal fleet, they ran for the Iron Isles, and Stannis knew they would run, that's why he took the other fleet around Faircastle Isle to trap them.  Clearly Stannis, whoever was in control of the Redwyn fleet, presumably Paxter, and Victarion, all thought the Ironborn would loose.

The link you provide has a quote from martin saying that the Reach and Westerlands have the greatest strength at sea after the Iron Isles, but that is clearly in context of manpower, it is not a statement that the Ironborn would win.  If a longship tried to ram a war galley or dromond, the longship would break apart.  If it pulled alongside a war galley/dromond, they would have to throw grappling hooks up over the war galley/dromond, then climb up a rope while the ship was heaving in the water.  Why do you think the Iron Isles lost control of the Arbor and shield isles etc etc, its because longships are for raiding, not for battling in open water.

Why was the Redwyn fleet capable of bringing Westerlands troops to the Iron Isles after the Dance of Dragons?  Why do the Redwyns and everyone else expect them to crush the Ironborn now?  The answer is pretty simple, when two things ram each other, the bigger one is gonna win, especially since longships generally wouldn't have actual rams.

[Loose Bolt]

Actually one place that IB would likely try to occupy is Fair Isle.

[Blackfish Tully]

16 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

One of those castles was described as being mostly ruin and was a destitute House that likely did not have a strong garrison compared to most. I think you are being a little disingenuous with the claim the only settlements he could not take were CR and Lanisport as if he had the strength to take places like the highly valuable and strategic Golden Tooth he would have. 

Good point , the Golden Tooth would have been nearly impossible for Robb to take with his 6000 especially considering the remains of Jaimie's army were holed up there but that does not change the  fact that Robb had completely cowed the West and since  the men from the Golden Tooth and Lannisport and Casterly Rock seemed to have zero interest in coming out of hiding to fight him shows that you add 20,000 Iron Born to the mix and the Westerlands would have been in serious jeopardy of being completely destroyed . Casterly Rock may have held out but Lannisport and the Golden Tooth would been in trouble unless Tywin came West. 

[Bernie Mac]

16 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 that does not change the  fact that Robb had completely cowed the West

No, this seems to be an odd exaggeration. It would be like suggesting the Ironborn completely cowed the North in ACOK & ASOS, this is simply not true, the vast majority of the West was untouched by Robb. 

16 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and since  the men from the Golden Tooth and Lannisport and Casterly Rock seemed to have zero interest in coming out of hiding

lol hiding. Robb and his army were, till the Crag and the Westerling honeypot, continuously on the move, they wisely did not telegraph their location and their targets were mostly unimportant. It was a wise move on Robb's side, but it was also wise on the Daven and Prester's given that marching out and hoping to run into them is just dumb. 

16 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

to fight him shows that you add 20,000 Iron Born to the mix and the

Those 20k would have to get past the Westerland Navy and its coastal defences, the North being deprived of both meant their landing was smooth, this would not be the case with the West. 

16 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Westerlands would have been in serious jeopardy of being completely destroyed .

16 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Casterly Rock may have held out but Lannisport and the Golden Tooth would been in trouble unless Tywin came West. 

Sure, had the Ironborn been successful in landing and not taken significant casualties in the process, valid reasons why Balon chose the North over the West, then yes, the West would be in trouble and Tywin would need to return. But you seem to be ignoring important variables to the equation that Balon had taken into equation. 

[Blackfish Tully]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

. lol hiding. Robb and his army were, till the Crag and the Westerling honeypot, continuously on the move, they wisely did not telegraph their location and their targets were mostly unimportant. It was a wise move on Robb's side, but it was also wise on the Daven and Prester's given that marching out and hoping to run into them is just dumb. 

 

Do you honestly think that Robb was worried about what remains of the Lannister's army in the Westerlands? the only reason he kept moving was because he knew that he could not take Lannisport or Casterly Rock and he knew that there was zero chance that any army would be coming out of Lannisport anytime soon so he kept moving to plunder as much we could to destroy as much  of Tywin's resources as he could get his hands on . We must be reading a different story if you think that Daven or Prester would even think about going to battle with Robb after the destruction he laid upon them at the Battle of Oxcross. 

[Blackfish Tully]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure, had the Ironborn been successful in landing and not taken significant casualties in the process, valid reasons why Balon chose the North over the West, then yes, the West would be in trouble and Tywin would need to return. But you seem to be ignoring important variables to the equation that Balon had taken into equation. 

casualties from what army ? Robb had crushed Jaimie and Stafford's armies with mass causalities  and Tywin had 20,000 in Harrenhall , what was left in the Westerlands to fight the Iron Born ?

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

On 3/28/2018 at 6:54 PM, UnFit Finlay said:

I always think Balon is a bit hard one by with this. I mean,it's a choice between taking on one of the most seasoned, and notorious, commanders in Westeros or an unproven teenage boy. If it's me then I'm going after Robb every time.

I agree. The proof of our wisdom is that the Ironborn are the only force that bundled in at the beginning of the War of the Five Kings that are not spent, except the Tyrells. 

44 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Do you honestly think that Robb was worried about what remains of the Lannister's army in the Westerlands? the only reason he kept moving was because he knew that he could not take Lannisport or Casterly Rock and he knew that there was zero chance that any army would be coming out of Lannisport anytime soon so he kept moving to plunder as much we could to destroy as much  of Tywin's resources as he could get his hands on . We must be reading a different story if you think that Daven or Prester would even think about going to battle with Robb after the destruction he laid upon them at the Battle of Oxcross. 

This is spot on. The Northmen were harrying the Westerlands in order to draw the Lannister forces west. Taking the Lannisport or Casterly Rock was never the objective, and wouldn't have been the plan for the Ironborn if they had sided with Robb either. I think the idea of attacking Casterly Rock was Theon's silly notion.