Would Balon attacking the Westerlands really change anything?

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

18 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

How does Mace handle Littlefinger's attempt to broker Margery and Joff's marriage if the Lannisters are losing?  Perhaps he takes his army and goes home especially considering if the Iron Born are near Lannisport.  That would be too close to the Shields and the Mander for me.  Mace would have to make a choice, go East and defend KL or go west and defend Highgarden.  I think he would chose to go West.

Some good points, but the problem is it's Stannis. Tywin would probably allow someone who first rebelled, then marched home, to return to the King's peace, but Stannis would not. He even implies to Davos that he plans to give just deserts to those that sided with him after Renly died. I can see Stannis, once he's secure on the throne, serving the Tyrells with fire and sword. The Florents would probably end up with the Reach (which was probably a big reason that they switched sides in the first place). 

The Queen of Thorns makes a good point to Sansa, once they were involved they had to keep playing, staying out of it wasn't an option. They had a great deal of interest in ensuring Stannis didn't end up on the Iron Throne. Also, I think the Tyrells, and a lot of their bannermen, genuinely loved Renly (Loras obviously did), and they hated Stannis. 

[Blackfish Tully]

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Some good points, but the problem is it's Stannis. Tywin would probably allow someone who first rebelled, then marched home, to return to the King's peace, but Stannis would not. He even implies to Davos that he plans to give just deserts to those that sided with him after Renly died. I can see Stannis, once he's secure on the throne, serving the Tyrells with fire and sword. The Florents would probably end up with the Reach (which was probably a big reason that they switched sides in the first place). 

 

After Renly was killed Stannis pardoned all the Lords that joined Renly and welcomed them into his army , he was not happy about it but he did it for the greater good just as he would with the Tyrells .

"Davos, I have missed you sorely," the king said. "Aye, I have a tail of traitors, your nose does not deceive you. My lords bannermen are inconstant even in their treasons. I need them, but you should know how it sickens me to pardon such as these when I have punished better men for lesser crimes. You have every right to reproach me, Ser Davos."

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

5 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

After Renly was killed Stannis pardoned all the Lords that joined Renly and welcomed them into his army , he was not happy about it but he did it for the greater good just as he would with the Tyrells .

"Davos, I have missed you sorely," the king said. "Aye, I have a tail of traitors, your nose does not deceive you. My lords bannermen are inconstant even in their treasons. I need them, but you should know how it sickens me to pardon such as these when I have punished better men for lesser crimes. You have every right to reproach me, Ser Davos."

Didn't he go on to say he'd get back at them later? I may be misremembering.

Anyway, my point was he was unlikely to pardon the Tyrells, if they not only backed Renly, but then marched home afterwards.

[Bernie Mac]

8 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Funny fact, Fair Island's current ruling house is of Ironborn origin.

 

Are you perhaps thinking of the Kayces, who reside on the mainland, rather than the Farmans?

 

On 4/3/2018 at 7:01 PM, cpg2016 said:

It's one and the same.  Tywin is damn lucky he doesn't face a mass revolt by his nobles. 

He's not damn lucky, management is not down to luck.

Quote

  He had to go back West once Robb starts pillaging, and that does not mean taking castles.  

Except he didnt. Robb is in the West for months after the Battle of Blackwater and we hear not a peep from the Westerland lords with Tywin. He had also been there for months before the Blackwater and the only reason Tywin moved is due to Stannis' movements, not Robb's.  

Robb was not in a serious position to hurt Tywin, they were acceptable losses to Tywin and through a combination of his long standing rule and command over his vassals meant that they too were accepting of these losses. 

Quote

There is a reason he abandoned every strategic goal he'd been fighting for to scurry home and protect his vassals - politically, he has to.

Except he does not. Not all threats are equal, not all losses are equal, some are acceptable during war. 

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Didn't he go on to say he'd get back at them later? I may be misremembering.

Anyway, my point was he was unlikely to pardon the Tyrells, if they not only backed Renly, but then marched home afterwards.

I'm pretty sure he didn't and I also imagine that he would have reluctantly pardoned the Tyrells (but not without some form of punishment) but what is important here is not what Stannis would or would not have done but the perception of what he would have done and the perception of Stannis is that he holds grudges and never lets slights against him, both real or imagined, go. 

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

After Renly was killed Stannis pardoned all the Lords that joined Renly and welcomed them into his army , he was not happy about it but he did it for the greater good just as he would with the Tyrells .

"Davos, I have missed you sorely," the king said. "Aye, I have a tail of traitors, your nose does not deceive you. My lords bannermen are inconstant even in their treasons. I need them, but you should know how it sickens me to pardon such as these when I have punished better men for lesser crimes. You have every right to reproach me, Ser Davos."

the problem is that Loras burned that bridge by imprisioning Stannis mensager and killing the men that were willing to go with him.

Mace could remain neutral see how the thinks plays out and handle it later since that he is sitting in the supplies for KL he could use it to bargain with Stannis later.

But a King Stannis might have power to punish Mace later on. The Tyrells already crossed Stannis twice by siding with Renly and later refusing to bend the knee after Renly's death. With the bad blood between them from the siege of SE, than siding with Renly and them refusing to bend the knee and imprisioning Stannis's mensager... thinks could be ugly.

Mace could join the Lannister gain high profts(Margery Queen; position in the small concil) and make a lot of enemies (Robb Balon and Stannis), and Robb would not be weak like in the canon and could expose the Reach to a IB invasion.

Mace could join Robb but there is no real gain for him there, Mace didn't think much of the North, Robb is already promissed to the Freys, and is not fighting for the Iron Throne. The only good think is that he garantee a easy victory over Stannis and Tywin, but would let a vacum power in the Iron throne with no clear sucessor.

[Bernie Mac]

On 4/3/2018 at 7:04 PM, cpg2016 said:

Stop including the Freys.  First off, they are going to betray Robb no matter what if he starts losing, this was confirmed by GRRM.

No, he never confirms that. He points out that "it is likely he would have searched for some way to disentangle himself from a losing cause sooner or later", that is not a betrayal. Dropping out of a war is not a betrayal.

What Walder and Roose did at the Red Wedding was a betrayal, what Tywin did to Aerys at Kings Landing was a betrayal, what Ulf the Sot and Hugh Hammer did at Tumbleton was a betrayal. Pretending to be on someone's side when you are working against them is a betrayal, there is zero evidence that the Freys would have done that had Robb not married Jeyne. Them dropping out of an unwinnable war is not a betrayal. 

 

On 4/3/2018 at 7:04 PM, cpg2016 said:

Robb sleeping with and marrying Jeyne has literally nothing to do with Walder's actions,

What nonsense is this? Of course it did.

On 4/3/2018 at 7:04 PM, cpg2016 said:

except to make his "revenge" more savage.  We've heard this from the author and it's made clear by the text.

lol that sentence makes nonsense. His revenge is savage, he has no need of 'revenge' if Robb does not marry Jeyne. 

On 4/3/2018 at 7:04 PM, cpg2016 said:

Second, they aren't particularly important.

Clearly they are. 

"We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope."

[Chris Mormont]

Everyone keeps mentioning the Tyrells not siding with Stannis because of what he may do to them as king, but what would he do to them if they fought Stannis and Stannis won? 

The point I made based on the initial question, what would have happened if Balon sided with Robb, is that the Westerlands and the Reach would have been threatened by the Iron Fleet.  So both Tywin and Mace would have had to make a critical decision, protect KL from Stannis or protect your homes from the Iron Born and the Northern army.

Mace is a cautious man, why would he choose the Lannisters if they are now under attack on three fronts from 3 different armies/ navy?  I would take my chances with Stannis knowing that the realm is starving and the Reach is the only kingdom which can provide food.  Trading food for a pardon would not be a bad deal for either side.  But that deal is off the table if the Iron Born start raving in the Reach.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎4‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 2:04 PM, cpg2016 said:

Stop including the Freys.  First off, they are going to betray Robb no matter what if he starts losing, this was confirmed by GRRM.  Robb sleeping with and marrying Jeyne has literally nothing to do with Walder's actions, except to make his "revenge" more savage.  We've heard this from the author and it's made clear by the text.

Second, they aren't particularly important.  Yes, they have a few thousand men, which is nice.  But it isn't like they are the Tyrells or Tullys, who can call on enough vassal troops to make a true difference in the war.  The Freys represent and important, but small part of the Riverlands.  Far more important is Lysa keeping the Vale out of the war, for example.

Robb would not have lost  . The plan was to draw Tywin back to the Westderlands , while Stannis attacks King's Landing , Balon's attacking the Westerlands would have achieved that . It is true that the Freys may have had an army of about 5000 , the Iron Born can field about  35000 and also ships .

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 4/6/2018 at 3:33 AM, Corvo the Crow said:

Funny fact, Fair Island's current ruling house is of Ironborn origin.

As for the what if, not going into much detail;

 no events in the North, possibly including the Hornwood incident.

No betrayals, including Karstarks'.

Tywin has to strike for West earlier or retreats toward KL since he would be facing Edmure with an emboldened Roose behind him with Robb possibly not in the west but somewhere in the RL as a third army to think of.

Wat?

[Corvo the Crow]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Wat?

My bad I confused it with Kayce

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Kenning_of_Kayce

[Arthur Peres]

On 06/04/2018 at 2:13 PM, Bernie Mac said:

He's not damn lucky, management is not down to luck.

 

Tywin was very lucky after the Whispering Woods

Losing a Battle with a number superiority to 2 to 1 to Edmure and it endeed up being a good think.

Renly dying by magic and the Tyrells turning to their side and pretty much winning the war alone for him

with the IB and Ramsey pretty much eroding Robb's war efort in the north.

After Whispering woods Tywin already has some of his nobles asking to make peace with Robb such as Leo Lefford and Harys Swift

If the Ironborns do not invade the north but instead turn into the undefended Westerlands, he would be forced to sue for peace on Robb's terms. 

He would be in big problem losing his last 3 big decisive battles in a row,(Whispering Woods/Camps, Oxcross and the Fords), Robb holding Tywin's bannermen as hostages(Jaime and 2 of Kevan's sons; the Lords Brax, Banefort; Estren; Greenfield and Westerlings) and escoring the Westerlands free of oposition. Meanwhile the sellswords turn sides and free the Northeam Hostagens in Harenhall wilding the castle to Roose with no virtual loss.

 

[Arthur Peres]

On 06/04/2018 at 3:08 PM, Chris Mormont said:

Everyone keeps mentioning the Tyrells not siding with Stannis because of what he may do to them as king, but what would he do to them if they fought Stannis and Stannis won? 

The point I made based on the initial question, what would have happened if Balon sided with Robb, is that the Westerlands and the Reach would have been threatened by the Iron Fleet.  So both Tywin and Mace would have had to make a critical decision, protect KL from Stannis or protect your homes from the Iron Born and the Northern army.

Mace is a cautious man, why would he choose the Lannisters if they are now under attack on three fronts from 3 different armies/ navy?  I would take my chances with Stannis knowing that the realm is starving and the Reach is the only kingdom which can provide food.  Trading food for a pardon would not be a bad deal for either side.  But that deal is off the table if the Iron Born start raving in the Reach.

I do agree with you, that Mace could keep his neutrality and bargain he pardon later by letting the supplies arrive to KL, as I also pointed it before and Mace still has the biggest army assembled and that would also happen to prevent retaliation by Stannis.

The thing is that Varys describe the fact that many lords now with Stannis still have their foot levies with Mace as a "ticklish situation". The loyalty of the men under Loras and Tarly are dubbious, they had to kill a lot of men to stop them joining with Stannis, also I do belive that in that host some part is composed by stormlanders that do not own any alligiance to the Tyrells.

Stannis winning at KL could erode Mace's army without even battle.

Taking Tywins side is very risky, Tywin is losing, and joining the Lannister means becoming enemies of the North and the Trident; the Iron Islands; Dorne and Stannis in one step. But joining him makes gives the Tyrells a queen, and pretty much the control of the small concil( if they win) 

Taking Robb's side is very safe and he could do it to beat Stannis, but Mace's opinion of the northems is very low, and he does not have common cause with them. Northem independence get's him nothing, and finishing Stannis and the Lannisters leaves a power vacum in the Iron Throne.

staying neutral it's tricky.

But if Mace does not decide at time to save KL, Robb would have won his independence 

[Bernie Mac]

On 4/9/2018 at 1:06 AM, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin was very lucky after the Whispering Woods

He was also unlucky after the Whispering Woods given

• the Lannister army was caught sleeping with not one competent scout who noticed an advancing army or the loss of their cavalry
• Joffrey executing Ned and the loss of Arya
• Robb's telepathic pet finding a hidden path into the Westerlands, bypassing the well fortified Golden Tooth, which the people of the Westerland were unaware about
• no Westerland citizen or any of Stafford's men noticing this 6k travelling army
• Stafford posting no sentries and being caught asleep
• Stannis' being gifted a magical assassin that allowed him to take Storm's End in a night intead of the months, at minimum, it should have taken

but of course that is just after the whispering wood, he was pretty much the unluckiest faction leader before that

• given his grandchildren being illegitimate
•  the Freys acting out of character, logic and reason
•  Jaime's scouts being incompetent
• Jaime personally dealing with bandits

but this is just one of the basic tenement's of command during wars, leaders will be blessed with both good luck and bad luck; the better commanders will be able to take advantage of their good luck and minimize their bad luck. 

 

[Arthur Peres]

35 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

He was also unlucky after the Whispering Woods given

• the Lannister army was caught sleeping with not one competent scout who noticed an advancing army or the loss of their cavalry
• Joffrey executing Ned and the loss of Arya
• Robb's telepathic pet finding a hidden path into the Westerlands, bypassing the well fortified Golden Tooth, which the people of the Westerland were unaware about
• no Westerland citizen or any of Stafford's men noticing this 6k travelling army
• Stafford posting no sentries and being caught asleep
• Stannis' being gifted a magical assassin that allowed him to take Storm's End in a night intead of the months, at minimum, it should have taken

but of course that is just after the whispering wood, he was pretty much the unluckiest faction leader before that

• given his grandchildren being illegitimate
•  the Freys acting out of character, logic and reason
•  Jaime's scouts being incompetent
• Jaime personally dealing with bandits

but this is just one of the basic tenement's of command during wars, leaders will be blessed with both good luck and bad luck; the better commanders will be able to take advantage of their good luck and minimize their bad luck. 

 

Tywin was the luckiest guy on Westeros.

Just Robert being killed by a pig while being guarded by Barristan Selmy is lucky enough but I can continue.

When Tywin invaded the Riverlands he was expected to fight the North and the Vale. Jaime usurping the title of protector of the east, the Lannisters being public acused by Lisa of Jon Arryn's death and Tyrion armoring the montain clans, and the blood ties of Lisa and Edmure it's a miracle that he didn't face also the Vale (this is a entire region acting out of character)

Walder Frey didn't act out of character, he was Hoster Tully vassal and Tywin had previously misstreted the Freys oposing the marriage of Gemma. Tywin was dumb to think that a House that never swear alligiance to him would take his side against it's own liege lord.

Jaime trusted in Tywin's information about Robb's location, Tywin was deceived by a 14~15 years old boy "soo green that pisses grass". Prior to that we see Jaime as fairly competent smashing the riverlords at the Golden Tooth and capturing Edmure in Riverrun then sieging the castle in the right manner. Tywins arrogance and incompetence cost him his heir and gold boy.

After WW

Renly the biggest threath with a army of 80k decides to sits on his hands and do nothing against the Lannisters when even Stannis with only 5k could take the city by bribering it. Than Renly decides to march against his own brother, to relieve a siege that it's pretty much a joke  as it represents no danger to the castle and get's killed in the process.

Tywin was beat out of the riverlands, cut out of his homland, couldn't get reinforcements got defeated on the field in the last 3 battles and was being raided by the BWB and the riverlords In one struck not only his biggest threat(Renly) vanished but Tywin also gained 60k swords in one stroke.

Meanwhile Robb offers Balon the chance to pillage the richest region in the realm,a alliance and shows good faith by releasing Theon. Balon decides then to ignore every sense of logic, declares independance and war against the ones that never held power over him ( makes as much sense as the USA declaring indepence and atacking Spain)

Theon takes Winterfell with 30 men... Bran and Rickon "dies" and the rest is history...

Tywin was beat at WW, Oxcross and the battle of the fords, 2 of his 3 host were crushed but Balon decides to go against every little shrewd of logic and with the death of Renly (a event that Tywin had nothing to do with) not only finishes the biggest threat but also gives him 60k swords...

Everything went right for Tywin from the begining. But after WW everything also went wrong for Robb.

[GallowsKnight]

10 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

The thing is that Varys describe the fact that many lords now with Stannis still have their foot levies with Mace as a "ticklish situation". The loyalty of the men under Loras and Tarly are dubbious, they had to kill a lot of men to stop them joining with Stannis, also I do belive that in that host some part is composed by stormlanders that do not own any alligiance to the Tyrells.

It's not just the Stormlords infantry that might have dubious loyalty. Stannis had a huge chunk of Reach lords and knights in his host, who would have infantry sworn to them marching under Mace Tyrell's banner. Renly took 20k mounted men to Storm's End, Loras rode away with only 4k. Leaving Stannis with 16k of the original force. Even if you're generous and say 1/3rd of that mounted force where Stormlords, that still leave ~9-10k reachmen with Stannis. 

We know that Reach houses like the Florents, (Red and Green) Fossoways, Mullendores, Meadows, Crane, Willum, and Varner switched sides. It's probably why they all switched/surrendered so quickly on Blackwater. But had Stannis managed to win the Blackwater and secured theirloyalties Mace would have to worry about them leaching back their men.

I think in the scenario OP outlined Mace wound have just eaten humble pie, bend the knee and make concessions. Stannis might dislike it but he was pragmatic enough to pardon the lords under Renly. He needs the Reach to have any hope of securing the entire Seven Kingdoms.

[Bernie Mac]

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin was the luckiest guy on Westeros.

No, he clearly was not. His luck balanced out but considering

• his children cuckolding the king not, preventing Tywin from having a legitimate royal grandchild
• Tyrion happening to visit the same inn that Cat was at and being captured
• his grandson executing a hostage that could have ended his war with the north/riverlands
• being on the toilet, without guards or weapons the precise time his son escapes from jail and decides to pay him a visit rather than escape

it is bizarre how anyone can call him the luckiest guy in Westeros, especially when Stannis and Tyrion are present in the series. 

 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Just Robert being killed by a pig while being guarded by Barristan Selmy is lucky enough but I can continue.

How is this lucky for Tywin? This whole clusterfuck of a situation is unlucky for Tywin, Cersei not producing a legitimate heir is not something that Tywin planned for or should have expected. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

When Tywin invaded the Riverlands he was expected to fight the North and the Vale.

no, he was not. check the books, he expected neither to get involved

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Jaime usurping the title of protector of the east,

how so? Robert gave him that title. How can he have usurped a title that the King can award to whoever he pleases? 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

the Lannisters being public acused by Lisa of Jon Arryn's death

in public? not really. If it was public why did Robert not hear of these claims? 

and claims mean shit without evidence. people claiming that Shireen is not Stannis' does not mean that she is accepted as a bastard. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

and Tyrion armoring the montain clans,

after he was released. That is actually a pertinent reason why the Vale knights should stay back and defend their own lands. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

and the blood ties of Lisa and Edmure it's a miracle that he didn't face also the Vale (this is a entire region acting out of character)

no, not really. Lysa is not some unknown person whose actions can not be guessed, Tywin correctly guesses that they won't get involved.  The Vale, like every other region, is not one hive mind that acts as one, it has many agendas and with no strong leader like Jon to influence the region was always going to be split.  we witnessed in Robert's Rebellion the Vale was split between the Crown and Jon Arryn and GRRM points out we would have likely seen another split had Lysa choose to go to war

GeoRR: The lords of the Vale are numerous. As with any large group, their views vary.

GeoRR: "Brothers" overstates the case, but certainly Ned made friends during his years in the Eyrie... so did Robert, however, so some of the Vale houses would be just as well disposed toward Baratheon as toward Stark.

For some reason many new to the fandom take it for granted that the North. Vale and Riverlands is some kind of voting block which is clearly not the case, they are independent kingdoms, the North and the Vale in particular with a rich histry of them being enemies; the idea that they would automatically rebel with them is simply not the case 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Walder Frey didn't act out of character,

Yeah, he did. The Riverlands was pretty much subdued, neither the Reach or the Stormlands had rebelled at that point and Tywin was the Hand. Walder choosing to support a rebel against those odds was out of character. 

"Leaving you unopposed?" Tyrion said.

"Not wholly," Ser Kevan said. "The Mallisters still hold Seagard and Walder Frey is marshaling his levies at the Twins."

"No matter," Lord Tywin said. "Frey only takes the field when the scent of victory is in the air, and all he smells now is ruin. And Jason Mallister lacks the strength to fight alone.

 

It was a minor miracle that Cat was able to negotiate his alliance. 

Which has nothing to do with character. 

"He's your father's bannerman."

"Some men take their oaths more seriously than others, Robb. And Lord Walder was always friendlier with Casterly Rock than my father would have liked. One of his sons is wed to Tywin Lannister's sister. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Lord Walder Frey might be sworn to Riverrun, but he was a cautious man who had lived a long time by making certain he was always on the winning side.

 

Walder's character has been firmly established, him taking Cat's side was a surprise. 

 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

and Tywin had previously misstreted the Freys oposing the marriage of Gemma.

And since then we have seen many Frey marriages to Westerland Houses, there is even a Frey squire at Casterly Rock. It is established that one of the reasons Hoster disliked Walder was his close ties to the West. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Tywin was dumb to think that a House that never swear alligiance to him would take his side against it's own liege lord.

no, Tywin expected Walder to be pragmatic and not rebel against the Crown. That is not dumb, that is common sense. Walder had already protected his own self interests. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Jaime trusted in Tywin's information about Robb's location,

Tywin's information? Where are you getting that from? 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Tywin was deceived by a 14~15 years old boy "soo green that pisses grass".

Well yes and no, Cat was left in charge and we know that had Cat reached Winterfell (as she told all the witnesses at the inn) earlier the Northern army would not have reached the Riverlands so quickly, if at all. Tywin was acting on the assumption that the Tully sisters were in charge. 

He was also acting on the assumption that Walder would remain cautious. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Prior to that we see Jaime as fairly competent smashing the riverlords at the Golden Tooth and capturing Edmure in Riverrun then sieging the castle in the right manner. Tywins arrogance and incompetence cost him his heir and gold boy.

What are you babbling about? Jaime being caught was on him, only the most idiotic of commander's decides to not act defensive when all his scouts go missing, or not to raise the alarm with the rest of his army. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Renly the biggest threath with a army of 80k decides to sits on his hands and do nothing against the Lannisters

read the books, Renly's whole host was not there, he was still awaiting Mace and his 10k. And in actual fact Renly is not doing nothing, he is letting two rival factions weaken eachother. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

when even Stannis with only 5k could take the city by bribering it.

according to who? Certainly not Stannis. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Than Renly decides to march against his own brother, to relieve a siege that it's pretty much a joke  as it represents no danger to the castle and get's killed in the process.

Well it does serve a purpose, you not understanding what the purpose is does not mean that it has no purpose. 

Renly looked to the others. "What say you all?"

"I say that Stannis is a danger to you," Lord Randyll Tarly declared. "Leave him unblooded and he will only grow stronger, while your own power is diminished by battle. The Lannisters will not be beaten in a day. By the time you are done with them, Lord Stannis may be as strong as you . . . or stronger."

Others chorused their agreement. The king looked pleased. "We shall fight, then."

 

That would be the main purpose, but it also served a secondary one

 

"If you are set on battle, my purpose here is done. I ask your leave to return to Riverrun."

"You do not have it." Renly seated himself on a camp chair.

She stiffened. "I had hoped to help you make a peace, my lord. I will not help you make a war."

Renly gave a shrug. "I daresay we'll prevail without your five-and-twenty, my lady. I do not mean for you to take part in the battle, only to watch it."

"I was at the Whispering Wood, my lord. I have seen enough butchery. I came here an envoy - "

"And an envoy you shall leave," Renly said, "but wiser than you came. You shall see what befalls rebels with your own eyes, so your son can hear it from your own lips.

Renly was using it as an example of his power, to potentially avoid bloodshed with Robb. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin was beat out of the riverlands,

no, he was not. He was in the Riverlands for most of the war and it was his decision to leave. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

cut out of his homland,

no, he was stopped from going one route. The Westerlands, unlike the North with Moat Cailin or the Vale with the Bloody Gate, has multiple entrances into the West. Edmure stopped him going the speediest route, he was not 'cut' out of his homeland. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

couldn't get reinforcements

yup, down to bad luck. enemies that have telepathic pets that can find unknown hidden paths is bad luck. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

got defeated on the field in the last 3 battles

which last three battles? 

and the last battle Tywin was in was victory at the battle of blackwater, while the last two battles his subordinates fought in were also victories

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

and was being raided by the BWB and the riverlords

yeah, not sure your point here. This was war, the other side is allowed to fight back you know. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

In one struck not only his biggest threat(Renly) vanished but Tywin also gained 60k swords in one stroke.

yup, this was a mixture of luck (initially for Stannis and Robb) and then for Tywin, but it was not just luck, their alliance took negotiation, it took Tywin appointing the right subordinates and it took offering an accepted price. 

 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Meanwhile Robb offers Balon the chance to pillage the richest region in the realm

how does Robb offer that? Balon does not need Robb to give him permission to do that. 

The Tyrells are brought on side by both Renly and the Crown because they offer them prizes that they don't have and can not get without Renly/Joffrey. That is an offer, asking a thief to mug someone is not offering them anything they could not have done by themselves. 

And of course Balon points out why the North is the better prospect

Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half. Aye, we might take Lannisport, but we should never keep it. No. I hunger for a different plum . . . not so juicy sweet, to be sure, yet it hangs there ripe and undefended."

Tywin left enough strength at home to put off Balon from attacking, that is down to management not luck, Robb stripped the North of the majority of its defenses, certainly on its West coast. that was down to poor management not luck. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

a alliance and shows good faith by releasing Theon. Balon decides then to ignore every sense of logic,

no, he is clear on why attacking the North is the more logical choice. Fewer casualties means a greater chance of defending any gains you make. 

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Theon takes Winterfell with 30 men... Bran and Rickon "dies" and the rest is history...

eh? Robb, ignoring the good advice from his mother, sends Theon to the Iron Islands. He sent the Iron Islands someone who knew how poorly defended Winterfell was but also someone who knew the castle better than the neophyte teenagers Robb left to protect his siblings and the capital. This is poor leadership. 

 

 

[Arthur Peres]

9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, he clearly was not. His luck balanced out but considering

• his children cuckolding the king not, preventing Tywin from having a legitimate royal grandchild
• Tyrion happening to visit the same inn that Cat was at and being captured
• his grandson executing a hostage that could have ended his war with the north/riverlands
• being on the toilet, without guards or weapons the precise time his son escapes from jail and decides to pay him a visit rather than escape

it is bizarre how anyone can call him the luckiest guy in Westeros, especially when Stannis and Tyrion are present in the series. 

Ok I agree with you on Tyrion, but don't really see Stannis as lucky, and what Joffrey did was a shittystorm for everybody Tywin is not particulary unlucky for it, if anything he started the whole war by overreacting.

9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How is this lucky for Tywin? This whole clusterfuck of a situation is unlucky for Tywin, Cersei not producing a legitimate heir is not something that Tywin planned for or should have expected. 

What do you expected to happen when Robert comes out of him hunting, finds out he was cuckolded by his wife with her brother and his father in law that he hates is breaking the kings peace. If Robert survives Tywin is done.

9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

no, he was not. check the books, he expected neither to get involved

Kevan already counted the Arryns as hostile

Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners.

The Blackfish is suprised and angry when Lysa refused to help the Tully

9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

how so? Robert gave him that title. How can he have usurped a title that the King can award to whoever he pleases? 

in public? not really. If it was public why did Robert not hear of these claims? 

and claims mean shit without evidence. people claiming that Shireen is not Stannis' does not mean that she is accepted as a bastard. 

after he was released. That is actually a pertinent reason why the Vale knights should stay back and defend their own lands. 

no, not really. Lysa is not some unknown person whose actions can not be guessed, Tywin correctly guesses that they won't get involved.  The Vale, like every other region, is not one hive mind that acts as one, it has many agendas and with no strong leader like Jon to influence the region was always going to be split.  we witnessed in Robert's Rebellion the Vale was split between the Crown and Jon Arryn and GRRM points out we would have likely seen another split had Lysa choose to go to war

That still was taken as a ofense in the Vale,

In the eyrie Lysa summoned every knight of the Vale and in front of everyone acused the Lannisters of killing Jon Arryn. Is very diferent a acusation of murder from gossip.

The Lannister alredy started a war against a region that was their allies, they tooked they honor title, they were acused of murdering Jon Arryn and now they're arming the montain clans, this is beyond provocation. The vale had just as much reason as the North to go to war with the Lannisters.

9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yeah, he did. The Riverlands was pretty much subdued, neither the Reach or the Stormlands had rebelled at that point and Tywin was the Hand. Walder choosing to support a rebel against those odds was out of character. 

"Leaving you unopposed?" Tyrion said.

"Not wholly," Ser Kevan said. "The Mallisters still hold Seagard and Walder Frey is marshaling his levies at the Twins."

"No matter," Lord Tywin said. "Frey only takes the field when the scent of victory is in the air, and all he smells now is ruin. And Jason Mallister lacks the strength to fight alone.

 

It was a minor miracle that Cat was able to negotiate his alliance. 

Which has nothing to do with character. 

"He's your father's bannerman."

"Some men take their oaths more seriously than others, Robb. And Lord Walder was always friendlier with Casterly Rock than my father would have liked. One of his sons is wed to Tywin Lannister's sister. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Lord Walder Frey might be sworn to Riverrun, but he was a cautious man who had lived a long time by making certain he was always on the winning side.

 

Walder's character has been firmly established, him taking Cat's side was a surprise. 

And since then we have seen many Frey marriages to Westerland Houses, there is even a Frey squire at Casterly Rock. It is established that one of the reasons Hoster disliked Walder was his close ties to the West. 

no, Tywin expected Walder to be pragmatic and not rebel against the Crown. That is not dumb, that is common sense. Walder had already protected his own self interests. 

Walder always intended to help fight the Lannisters, but just as Jason Mallister(to give a exemple of a loyal bannermen that no one would doubt) he didn't assembled his army fast enough.

"I called my swords, yes I did, here they are, you saw them on the walls. It was my intent to march as soon as all my strength was assembled. Well, to send my sons. I am well past marching myself, Lady Catelyn. Tell her, Jared. Tell her that was my intent."

It was only after Edmure being crushed and captured that it become a lost cause, than he jumped ship.

"Is it my fault that your foll brother lost his battle before we could march? I am told the, Kingslayer went through him like an axe through ripe cheese. Why should my boys hurry south to die? All those who did go south are running north again."

When Robb shows up with a fresh army read to fight giving new hope Walder has no reason to block his way.

Walder marrieng to Westerlands Houses is not out of the ordinary,he had so many children that he marry them off to anyone. Bolton Swan, Lannister, Stark, Vance,Haigh, Darry, Royce, Blackwood, Rosby and soo on. 

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Tywin's information? Where are you getting that from? 

Well yes and no, Cat was left in charge and we know that had Cat reached Winterfell (as she told all the witnesses at the inn) earlier the Northern army would not have reached the Riverlands so quickly, if at all. Tywin was acting on the assumption that the Tully sisters were in charge. 

He was also acting on the assumption that Walder would remain cautious. 

 

 

Robb gathered his army when Eddard was arrested and he already was in Moat Caillin when Edmure lost the battle at Riverrun. What Tywin expected Robb to do there? Turn around and go North?

Cat was smart to trick everyone about her location but Tywin was also dumb to ignore everything that happen during that time. (Eddard being arrested and Robb marching south)

Tywin was arrogant and was turned into a fool by Robb.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

29 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

alder always intended to help fight the Lannisters, but just as Jason Mallister(to give a exemple of a loyal bannermen that no one would doubt) he didn't assembled his army fast enough.

"I called my swords, yes I did, here they are, you saw them on the walls. It was my intent to march as soon as all my strength was assembled. Well, to send my sons. I am well past marching myself, Lady Catelyn. Tell her, Jared. Tell her that was my intent."

It was only after Edmure being crushed and captured that it become a lost cause, than he jumped ship.

"Is it my fault that your foll brother lost his battle before we could march? I am told the, Kingslayer went through him like an axe through ripe cheese. Why should my boys hurry south to die? All those who did go south are running north again."

When Robb shows up with a fresh army read to fight giving new hope Walder has no reason to block his way.

That's a very generous interpretation of Walder's actions. He's known, as Tywin said, to delay and wait to see who wins. Just because he says he intended to march to help Riverrun, doesn't mean he was actually going to. He's not exactly an honest man. 

Walder has no reason to block his way...except he does block his way, until he's offered a deal too good to refuse. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

48 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

"Tell her, Jared. Tell her that was my intent."

I'd also add, that if the person backing up your claim is someone who, with a straight face, told a room full of people that Wyllis Manderly was killed by Robb Stark after the latter turned into a wolf, I'd recommend seeking a second source. 

[Arthur Peres]

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Tywin's information? Where are you getting that from? 

Didn't Tywin send ravens to Jaime informing that he was marching against Robb or it was only in the TV Show?

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

read the books, Renly's whole host was not there, he was still awaiting Mace and his 10k. And in actual fact Renly is not doing nothing, he is letting two rival factions weaken eachother. 

Well it does serve a purpose, you not understanding what the purpose is does not mean that it has no purpose. 

Renly looked to the others. "What say you all?"

"I say that Stannis is a danger to you," Lord Randyll Tarly declared. "Leave him unblooded and he will only grow stronger, while your own power is diminished by battle. The Lannisters will not be beaten in a day. By the time you are done with them, Lord Stannis may be as strong as you . . . or stronger."

Others chorused their agreement. The king looked pleased. "We shall fight, then."

That would be the main purpose, but it also served a secondary one

"If you are set on battle, my purpose here is done. I ask your leave to return to Riverrun."

"You do not have it." Renly seated himself on a camp chair.

She stiffened. "I had hoped to help you make a peace, my lord. I will not help you make a war."

Renly gave a shrug. "I daresay we'll prevail without your five-and-twenty, my lady. I do not mean for you to take part in the battle, only to watch it."

"I was at the Whispering Wood, my lord. I have seen enough butchery. I came here an envoy - "

"And an envoy you shall leave," Renly said, "but wiser than you came. You shall see what befalls rebels with your own eyes, so your son can hear it from your own lips.

Renly was using it as an example of his power, to potentially avoid bloodshed with Robb. 

Renly got more than enough man to deal with Tywin and Stannis at the same time.

But instead he decided to play king and make feast when he has 80k man with him and another 10k with Mace.

Then Stannis starts to siege SE with 5k man and renly decides to act... Even when Stannis killed Renly and got his cavalry he didn't think that he could take the castle...

The reason for Renly to act that way are awful. KL is already starving, if he march he will takes the city and he taking the supplies makes him be loved there. He would have won, crushing Tywin and forcing Robb into the fold again. Stannis is a no-threat, no matter how good a general is he can't win a war without an army.

This is Tywin lucky at it best. Stannis the most cynical lord decides to siege a castle that he has no chance of taking. Then Renly marching to relive a castle that is not under any threat and getting killed by magic. Tywin then gains 60k swords out of the nothing and his biggest threat vanishes into oblivion. This is the luckyest event in the series bar none.

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

no, he was not. He was in the Riverlands for most of the war and it was his decision to leave. 

no, he was stopped from going one route. The Westerlands, unlike the North with Moat Cailin or the Vale with the Bloody Gate, has multiple entrances into the West. Edmure stopped him going the speediest route, he was not 'cut' out of his homeland. 

yup, down to bad luck. enemies that have telepathic pets that can find unknown hidden paths is bad luck. 

which last three battles? 

and the last battle Tywin was in was victory at the battle of blackwater, while the last two battles his subordinates fought in were also victories

yeah, not sure your point here. This was war, the other side is allowed to fight back you know. 

yup, this was a mixture of luck (initially for Stannis and Robb) and then for Tywin, but it was not just luck, their alliance took negotiation, it took Tywin appointing the right subordinates and it took offering an accepted price. 

you're talking about the situation after Blackwater. I'm talking about prior to that.

The 3 battles that Tywin lost being Whispering Woods, Oxcross and then the Battle of the Red Fort. The first two ended with 2 of 3 Lannisters army and the third one ended with Tywin losing with heavy loses and also losing his biggest defensive position in the Riverlands.

Tywin after the Red Fort also lost Harenhall to Roose and held no castle in the Riverlands, he was forced to retreat to KL because he could go to the west and he couldn't go back to harenhall... Losing a battle when he outnumbers the enemy 2 to 1 and suffering heavy casualities in the process and this still end up as a good thing for him... talking about luck.

Tywin held nothing in the negotiation with the Tyrells, this was LF and Tyrion plot.

Robb has the biggest bad lucky in the series, his aunt refused to fight with him, his best friend betrayed him, took his castle with 30 men, killed his brothers and heirs, his bannemen (Bolton and Manderly) are fighting a civil war over the hornwood lands when The Ironborns are invading, his mother frees his biggest hostage and he was killed by his second in command later... 

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

how does Robb offer that? Balon does not need Robb to give him permission to do that. 

The Tyrells are brought on side by both Renly and the Crown because they offer them prizes that they don't have and can not get without Renly/Joffrey. That is an offer, asking a thief to mug someone is not offering them anything they could not have done by themselves. 

And of course Balon points out why the North is the better prospect

Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half. Aye, we might take Lannisport, but we should never keep it. No. I hunger for a different plum . . . not so juicy sweet, to be sure, yet it hangs there ripe and undefended."

Tywin left enough strength at home to put off Balon from attacking, that is down to management not luck, Robb stripped the North of the majority of its defenses, certainly on its West coast. that was down to poor management not luck. 

no, he is clear on why attacking the North is the more logical choice. Fewer casualties means a greater chance of defending any gains you make. 

eh? Robb, ignoring the good advice from his mother, sends Theon to the Iron Islands. He sent the Iron Islands someone who knew how poorly defended Winterfell was but also someone who knew the castle better than the neophyte teenagers Robb left to protect his siblings and the capital. This is poor leadership. 

You're changing my words, I never said that Balon needed Robb's permission. I said that Robb offers the better oportunit for doing so.

Tywin had no streng in home, Robb run freely with his 6k for mounths without any oposition. CR just like SE is not easy to take, but many targest were still avaible for Balon. The north had much more men to defend itself than the westerlands and much less to gain.

The north still had at least 2.000 under Rodrik + 3.000 montain clan + 800 Umbers  + 600 Boltons under Ramsey + 450 Karstark + others  Houses that didn't send all their forces with Robb such as Dustin and Ryswell, and the garrisons of the castles.

Balon invasion of the north let him captured Deepwood Motte and Moat Callin, from that he got nothing as Asha point's out in the Kingsmoot.

It's not coincidence that the major of the fandom thinks that Balon is a idiot.