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Weird dragon logistics


Lord Varys

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The various historical accounts include certain tidbits that make one wonder about dragon logistics. How do dragonriders travel with dragons if they are not traveling only with dragons?

Some of the larger dragons - like Balerion and Vhagar - can likely carry a number of adult people, not just children (like Ronnel Arryn), but the smaller, younger dragons can likely only carry their rider.

Now, historically there are a number of instances where things really look weird in relation to dragon-travel.

Apparently, King Aenys and his court and family fled KL by ship in 41 AC, making it look rather weird how the royal dragons (including the king's own dragon, Quicksilver) were transported. We don't know whether Jaehaerys and Alysanne already had Vermithor and Silverwing at that point, but if they did, the king would have transported at least three dragons by ship or he would have allowed his young children to fly to Dragonstone on dragonback, or the dragons magically knew where their riders went and followed the ships (or flew ahead on their own).

Quicksilver herself seems to have been too large be carried by a ship, so either she flew to Dragonstone on her own, or King Aenys flew her there (which would mean the king himself actually did not go by ship to Dragonstone).

Later, we have the problem of how Quicksilver got to the Westerlands to be claimed by Prince Aegon. Considering that a dragon only follows the directions of its rider - and his rider was King Aenys who was dead - it is very implausible to assume she got to Casterly Rock by herself. A journey by ship sounds even more unlikely considering her size and the danger this would pose for the ship and its crew (not to mention the lack of motivation of pretty much anyone to do something as risky as that).

Prince Aegon traveling to Dragonstone and claiming Quicksilver there sounds theoretically possible but makes little sense narrative-wise considering that the man first showed up as a dragonrider in the West. Considering that dragons are not sparrows people would have seen him flying back in the West - which they did not. Not to mention that there would have been little reason to go back to Casterly Rock - he could have tried to attack Maegor then and there, or he could have tried to find allies in regions where people were more inclined to favor him rather than his uncle.

Later still we have the same weirdo naval dragon logistics when Alyssa Velaryon and her children (presumably) escape with two dragons by ship, and are able to hide with two dragons either in the Free Cities (nonsense, if you ask me) or at Storm's End/the Stormlands (even more more nonsense, if you ask me).

Chances are about zero that they could have hidden that way, but they are even lower that anybody would have been willing to accept dragons of considerable size on ships.

Later still, those issues seem to be addressed. Prince Daemon can take Vhagar back to Westeros while her rider takes a ship. Prince Aemond's army is much slower than Vhagar, making the army a disadvantage in war.

Any views on that matter?

And how do you think the logistical problems of Dany's dragons are going to be handled. I think the days when Drogon, Viserion, and Rhaegal could travel by ship are pretty much over. They can no longer be chained or stored on a ship, and without riders they are unlikely to accompany anyone to Westeros (or even Volantis). Even with riders it sounds very daring/risky for a dragonrider to land/fly off a ship to stay/accompany the fleet for a time. The risk that they will burn the ship(s) or at least the sails should be too high.

Will Dany and the other dragonriders choose to fly west along the shorelines, mostly accompany those parts of the overall forces that will march to the western shores of Essos to take ship for Westeros there? They cannot stay atop a dragon for days on end, they have to drink, eat, and sleep.

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50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Will Dany and the other dragonriders chose to fly west along the shorelines, mostly accompany those parts of the overall forces that will march to the western shores of Essos to take ship for Westeros there? They cannot stay atop a dragon for days on end, they have to drink, eat, and sleep.

Travel by land is best, through the wicked city of Mantarys.  Dany can be quite charismatic when she wants to be and more than likely to pick up soldiers and converts along the way.  The glorious army will only get bigger as they march west.  

I don't think Dany will have trouble.  The ones that present problems for me are Jaenerys and Allisanne when they traveled to the wall.  Specifically, their servants and guards had to travel very slowly while they flew their dragons.  As we saw from Robert's visit to Winterfell, a royal parade travels slowly.  How was that accomplished when the royals were flying fast and 99% of the royal party is on horseback and wagons.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Apparently, King Aenys and his court and family fled KL by ship in 41 AC, making rather weird how the royal dragons (including the king's own dragon, Quicksilver) were transported. We don't know whether Jaehaerys and Alysanne already had Vermithor and Silverwing at that point, but if they did, the king would have transported at least three dragons by ship or he would have allowed his young children to fly to Dragonstone on dragonback, or the dragons magically knew where their riders went and followed the ships (or flew ahead on their own).

 

This was my best guess, but I don't hesitate to leap into the Pit of Tinfoil rather than admit it might just be a Plot Hole.

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10 minutes ago, hiemal said:

This was my best guess, but I don't hesitate to leap into the Pit of Tinfoil rather than admit it might just be a Plot Hole.

Well, they could have just flown to Dragonstone with the dragons, while the court followed them by ship. If that's what happened then it should have been written that way.

And with Quicksilver-Aegon even that thing doesn't work. The only thing that even remotely would make sense if the dragon had a rider between Aenys and Aegon - a bastard half-brother of Aegon, perhaps, or a Velaryon nephew of Queen Alyssa - who took it upon himself to help 'the true king' by standing at his side with his father's dragon. That guy would have to die soon so that Aegon could claim the dragon.

If such a person were indeed a Targaryen bastard or a Velaryon the amount of loyalty this guy would have shown would make sense, if he was a KG. Then it could be the very old Corlys Velaryon or some bastard King Aenys fathered early on in his youth, perhaps even before he married Alyssa Velaryon (at the age of 14, perhaps).

A Kingsguard would lay down his life for his king, and could have given his life to protect Aegon and Rhaena against assassins sent by Maegor or Tyanna (perhaps the news about the pregnancy/birth of the twins arrived at court). It could also be what triggered Aegon's final decision to move against his uncle.

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10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, they could have just flown to Dragonstone with the dragons, while the court followed them by ship. If that's what happened then it should have been written that way.

And with Quicksilver-Aegon even that thing doesn't work. The only thing that even remotely would make sense if the dragon had a rider between Aenys and Aegon - a bastard half-brother of Aegon, perhaps, or a Velaryon nephew of Queen Alyssa - who took it upon himself to help 'the true king' by standing at his side with his father's dragon. That guy would have to die soon so that Aegon could claim the dragon.

If such a person were indeed a Targaryen bastard or a Velaryon the amount of loyalty this guy would have shown would make sense, if he was a KG. Then it could be the very old Corlys Velaryon or some bastard King Aenys fathered early on in his youth, perhaps even before he married Alyssa Velaryon (at the age of 14, perhaps).

A Kingsguard would lay down his life for his king, and could have given his life to protect Aegon and Rhaena against assassins sent by Maegor or Tyanna (perhaps the news about the pregnancy/birth of the twins arrived at court). It could also be what triggered Aegon's final decision to move against his uncle.

You spin a masterful web, Lord Spider.

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This is pretty good detail teasing @Lord Varys.   I wondered about big dragons on ships too and assumed they flew with the ships.  We don't know much about the bond between dragon and rider, nor how that bond is really forged.    I get the egg in the cradle.    That actually makes some sense.  It is the larger, older dragons who seem to sort of choose their riders.   Maegor waited for Balerion?  Really?   I suspect there is some sorcery involved in this sort of bonding.   Maybe that horn of Euron's will work?  You can't just decide you will ride Balerion.   Particularly when you never bonded another dragon.    It's unlikely.    There is more to it.  

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8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And how do you think the logistical problems of Dany's dragons are going to be handled. I think the days when Drogon, Viserion, and Rhaegal could travel by ship are pretty much over. They can no longer be chained or stored on a ship, and without riders they are unlikely to accompany anyone to Westeros (or even Volantis). Even with riders it sounds very daring/risky for a dragonrider to land/fly off a ship to stay/accompany the fleet for a time. The risk that they will burn the ship(s) or at least the sails should be too high.

They aren't that large yet. Drogon must be bull-sized and the other two about the size of a horse. Even if they grow larger by the time Dany crosses the narrow sea, the big Aurane Waters dromons may be of help here, which can easily carry elephants or larger creatures. The issue is controlling them so they do not burn the ships.

It is reasonable to think that Dany is by now in full control of Drogon, so as long as she stays nearby, he is able to fly several times per day and the dragon has enough to eat (roasting meat in a ship is a problem though), probably he would be fine inside the big holds.

The same may apply to Viserion which seems to be the less dangerous of the dragons. Tyrion (and Ben) will need to work hard to tame him so he behaves reasonably.

The question remains about Rhaegal... Is he (she?) going to be stolen by Euron's horn? In that case he will fly to Westeros in his own. Otherwise we need a rider and there seems to be none. May the horn be of help here? or some magic by Marwin or Moqorro?

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Will Dany and the other dragonriders choose to fly west along the shorelines, mostly accompany those parts of the overall forces that will march to the western shores of Essos to take ship for Westeros there? They cannot stay atop a dragon for days on end, they have to drink, eat, and sleep.

That is a reasonable assumption during their march through Essos. The dragon riders need to slow down to keep the pace of ground forces. Even Dothraki are slower than dragons, so there is no much problem here.

 

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7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

They aren't that large yet. Drogon must be bull-sized and the other two about the size of a horse. Even if they grow larger by the time Dany crosses the narrow sea, the big Aurane Waters dromons may be of help here, which can easily carry elephants or larger creatures. The issue is controlling them so they do not burn the ships.

Aurane Waters has set himself up in the Stepstones. He knows about Daenerys and the dragons but he doesn't care.

Besides, the Volantenes should bring great galleys to Slaver's Bay, anyway.

But there is no way to prevent the dragons from burning the ships. They are animals. And their riders do not control their every move.

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It is reasonable to think that Dany is by now in full control of Drogon, so as long as she stays nearby, he is able to fly several times per day and the dragon has enough to eat (roasting meat in a ship is a problem though), probably he would be fine inside the big holds.

Drogon is not likely to allow them to put himself into some hold. I don't doubt that he would be willing to land and hang out on deck, but beneath decks? Not very likely. 

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The same may apply to Viserion which seems to be the less dangerous of the dragons. Tyrion (and Ben) will need to work hard to tame him so he behaves reasonably.

Considering how the dragons dealt with their prison beneath the pyramid this seems to be extremely unlikely. Ships are made of wood, and even an extremely well-behaving dragon should burn down a ship in no-time.

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The question remains about Rhaegal... Is he (she?) going to be stolen by Euron's horn? In that case he will fly to Westeros in his own. Otherwise we need a rider and there seems to be none. May the horn be of help here? or some magic by Marwin or Moqorro?

You really think Rhaegal (or any dragon) would fly straight to Westeros because of the horn? That would be a very silly sight. There is no indication that Dragonbinder is actually Dragon Remote Control... And at this point it would Victarion in any case who would gain a dragon via the horn. He has Moqorro to help him with that - and if Moqorro wants a Greyjoy to claim a dragon it is Victarion, not Euron.

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That is a reasonable assumption during their march through Essos. The dragon riders need to slow down to keep the pace of ground forces. Even Dothraki are slower than dragons, so there is no much problem here.

The question would be whether they would want to take the Demon Road. Possibly not. If they go through the Dothraki Sea and then via Qohor or Norvos whoever accompanies the land forces is not likely going to stay in contact with the naval forces. Volantis could be taken by the navy alone, considering that the very sight of a dragonrider above the city would likely be enough to cause a slave-uprising. Not to mention that they would go west in Volantene ships, which should allow them to enter the harbor without any problems.

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This is an interesting question. I always assumed riding by dragon is more like flying on a plane. Whereas a ship would take days to travel, a modern plane can carry a person around the world in like 24 hours. We know that Aegon, the original, flew back and forth between Dragonstone, Westeros, and Essos. He did it on dragonback without any ships or an escort on the ground. In DwD, when Dany is flying around with Drogon on the Dothraki sea, she eats with Drogon. So over land, they can make pit stops. When travelling by sea, if the distance takes days, they might stop atop islets and such to eat. 

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Later still, those issues seem to be addressed. Prince Daemon can take Vhagar back to Westeros while her rider takes a ship. Prince Aemond's army is much slower than Vhagar, making the army a disadvantage in war.

Any views on that matter?

Not necessarily. Even if the army is slow, the dragon can go ahead and do damage because there are no anti-dragon weapons. The dragons can move between a forward point and the soldier camps easily. I suppose this could be like providing aerial support in modern warfare. The planes can always fly ahead of the ground army (with slow weapons like tanks), but that doesn't put the army or the planes at a disadvantage (in the absence of anti-aircraft missiles). In fact, the aircraft are deployed for reconnaissance. 

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even with riders it sounds very daring/risky for a dragonrider to land/fly off a ship to stay/accompany the fleet for a time. The risk that they will burn the ship(s) or at least the sails should be too high.

This reminds me of the story of Nettles. At the end of Dance, it's presumed that Nettles and Sheepstealer flies off across an ocean somewhere. The maesters assume that that the dragon may have died from exhaustion while flying. But the way GRRM puts this is highly suspicious.

Dragons probably can fly for days without food or water, like migratory birds. The dragonrider might have to accommodate accordingly, or make stops on islands on the way, when crossing an ocean. 

I remember from DWD that dragons also have home bases, sort of. Drogon has his Dragonstone II, the place he can always fly back to. So a dragon, even without a rider, can probably fly back to a home base or a temporary home base by its own. 

It's also possible that a dragon can follow a rider on a ship or a land carriage by generally flying in the direction they are going. If the dragonrider knows where they are going, I think the dragon knows too, even if they are not on the same path. It's sort of what happens in Dany's last chapter in DwD. Also, Drogon seem to fly to her whenever she needs him. 

I highly doubt there's a risk of a dragon burning a ship when there's a rider on board. They don't do it unless instructed. These are tame dragons after all. Besides, the dragons would be flying too high for it anyway. 

Unless, of course, GRRM hasn't thought any of this through. Like George Lucas, who came up with the Millennium Falcon, but couldn't tell Harrison Ford how to actually fly it. 

10 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

A bit off topic but can dragons swim for long periods of time? That way they could travel stealthy and not be seen or heard from the sky where they'd be expected to be.

Dragons don't swim. They would probably hate it even if they could because water is cold. Dragons don't like the cold. Unless you are talking about a sea dragon, of course, but those creatures are mythical even in AWOIAF, like ice dragons. 

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24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

This is an interesting question. I always assumed riding by dragon is more like flying on a plane. Whereas a ship would take days to travel, a modern plane can carry a person around the world in like 24 hours. We know that Aegon, the original, flew back and forth between Dragonstone, Westeros, and Essos. He did it on dragonback without any ships or an escort on the ground. In DwD, when Dany is flying around with Drogon on the Dothraki sea, she eats with Drogon. So over land, they can make pit stops. When travelling by sea, if the distance takes days, they might stop atop islets and such to eat.

Dragonstone-KL seems to be the distance a dragon can fly in a day. Daemon and Rhaenyra did it later, too. And, sure, flying overland allows you to make stops whenever you feel like it.

24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

Not necessarily. Even if the army is slow, the dragon can go ahead and do damage because there are no anti-dragon weapons. The dragons can move between a forward point and the soldier camps easily. I suppose this could be like providing aerial support in modern warfare. The planes can always fly ahead of the ground army (with slow weapons like tanks), but that doesn't put the army or the planes at a disadvantage (in the absence of anti-aircraft missiles). In fact, the aircraft are deployed for reconnaissance. 

Oh, dragons certainly can be a great asset to an army, it is just that Aemond failed to make Vhagar an asset to his army. Instead he felt that his army was slowing him down, preventing him from what he and his dragon could do if they were not slowed down.

Dany's dragons should not be great weapons in war. It will be winter when she comes to Westeros, and snow doesn't burn. Even if Drogon and the others grew too vast size very quickly, it should be still pretty much impossible to burn a house covered in snow, much less a castle.

At best, the dragonriders could serve as messengers and scouts, and providing some aerial support by intimidating the enemy army with blasts of fire. But Dany's dragons won't give us another Field of Fire or another Harrenhal. But they could be as effective as Tessarion was during Ormund Hightower's campaign in the Reach.

24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

This reminds me of the story of Nettles. At the end of Dance, it's presumed that Nettles and Sheepstealer flies off across an ocean somewhere. The maesters assume that that the dragon may have died from exhaustion while flying. But the way GRRM puts this is highly suspicious.

We know that Sheepstealer and Nettles ended up in the Mountains of the Moon, co-founding the Burned Men. They did not leave Westeros. 

24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

Dragons probably can fly for days without food or water, like migratory birds. The dragonrider might have to accommodate accordingly, or make stops on islands on the way, when crossing an ocean. 

That would depend on their being islands. Or them finding some. If there are some, it should be easy to find see them from the air, but if there aren't any and you have been on dragonback all day, you are in trouble.

24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

I remember from DWD that dragons also have home bases, sort of. Drogon has his Dragonstone II, the place he can always fly back to. So a dragon, even without a rider, can probably fly back to a home base or a temporary home base by its own. 

Dragons make lairs. They are stationary animals. The wild dragons have their lairs on the Dragonmount, Silverwing later makes herself a lair on an island in Red Lake, and Drogon has his lair on his rock. On their own they only seem to travel in search for food. And they would only look for a new lair, presumably, if they no longer found food in their usual hunting grounds.

24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

It's also possible that a dragon can follow a rider on a ship or a land carriage by generally flying in the direction they are going. If the dragonrider knows where they are going, I think the dragon knows too, even if they are not on the same path. It's sort of what happens in Dany's last chapter in DwD. Also, Drogon seem to fly to her whenever she needs him.

Yes, there is such a possibility. Dany's dragons also always returned to the ships while she was traveling from Qarth to Astapor.

But I doubt they feel or know about the ultimate destination. They might know/feel where their rider is while he or she is on a ship, but if Dany was on her way to, say, KL by ship then Drogon should be as 'smart' or 'knowledgeable' to know that, too, resulting in him flying ahead and waiting for her at a place neither she nor he ever was before.

24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

I highly doubt there's a risk of a dragon burning a ship when there's a rider on board. They don't do it unless instructed. These are tame dragons after all. Besides, the dragons would be flying too high for it anyway.

Drogon doesn't need Dany's permission or instruction to breathe fire, just as he doesn't need her instruction to kill horses. I'm pretty sure dragons on a ship wouldn't breathe fire to burn a ship against the will of their rider (if that person was also on board) but the chances that they would *never* breathe are pretty small. They may be animals bound to the will of a person, but they are still dangerous animals, not mindless puppets.

If they are afraid, angry, pissed, enraged, etc. they should breathe fire. And then the ship should burn rather quickly.

None of Dany's dragons should like beneath decks on a ship. They don't like it beneath the pyramid, either.

24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

Unless, of course, GRRM hasn't thought any of this through. Like George Lucas, who came up with the Millennium Falcon, but couldn't tell Harrison Ford how to actually fly it. 

He will have to think about. The dragons will have to go to Westeros somehow.

24 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

Dragons don't swim. They would probably hate it even if they could because water is cold. Dragons don't like the cold. Unless you are talking about a sea dragon, of course, but those creatures are mythical even in AWOIAF, like ice dragons. 

Grey Ghost apparently lived exclusively on a diet of fish. But then, he didn't need to swim to catch them.

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9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany's dragons should not be great weapons in war. It will be winter when she comes to Westeros, and snow doesn't burn. Even if Drogon and the others grew too vast size very quickly, it should be still pretty much impossible to burn a house covered in snow, much less a castle.

At best, the dragonriders could serve as messengers and scouts, and providing some aerial support by intimidating the enemy army with blasts of fire. But Dany's dragons won't give us another Field of Fire or another Harrenhal. But they could be as effective as Tessarion was during Ormund Hightower's campaign in the Reach.

The dragonfire would melt the snow, and whatever underneath would take fire. The snow will prevent the fire from spreading, unlike in the summer. If it's stone, then it may not matter if the stone is hot or cold or covered in snow. Balerion burned down Harrenhal by melting the stone and everyone inside just got baked to death.  Dragonfire burns several thousand degrees high so snow would be near instantly evaporated.  

When Dany comes to Westeros, I think her concern is not going to be about conquest. Even if it is, she may not really need to go around burning down random houses. In ASOS I think, she dreams she's at the Trident burning down  Robert's army, here clad in ice. It's possible that when Dany shows up, winter is already here and WW have advanced as far south as the Riverlands. 

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That would depend on their being islands. Or them finding some. If there are some, it should be easy to find see them from the air, but if there aren't any and you have been on dragonback all day, you are in trouble.

Yes, when crossing the ocean, they might not encounter islets at all. But obviously there's a way the dragonrider can survive on dragoback for long distances, as seen with Aegon I who crossed the narrow sea to Essos on dragonback. Maybe they can pack food or water. Or they probably only need to learn to stay mounted for a day, like flying from North America to Asia. The non-stop flights can last nearly a day, and you just sleep it off mostly. On a massive dragon, this is very likely possible. But probably not on a smaller dragon the size of Viserion or Rhaegal in Dance. 

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We know that Sheepstealer and Nettles ended up in the Mountains of the Moon, co-founding the Burned Men. They did not leave Westeros. 

So she's the fire witch? Really?

22 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They might know/feel where their rider is while he or she is on a ship, but if Dany was on her way to, say, KL by ship then Drogon should be as 'smart' or 'knowledgeable' to know that, too, resulting in him flying ahead and waiting for her at a place neither she nor he ever was before.

They don't have to go there and wait for Dany, the dragon can fly back and forth. Make a temporary lair until the dragonrider finally calls. but Dany would fly ahead on the dragons. There's no need for her to be on the ship, if she does cross to Essos in the manner of the show. The dragons are knowledgeable I think. Given their flying nature, they would need to have a good sense of navigation. Drogon survived on the Dothraki sea on his own, but he never veered far from Dany. 

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Drogon doesn't need Dany's permission or instruction to breathe fire, just as he doesn't need her instruction to kill horses. I'm pretty sure dragons on a ship wouldn't breathe fire to burn a ship against the will of their rider (if that person was also on board) but the chances that they would *never* breathe are pretty small. They may be animals bound to the will of a person, but they are still dangerous animals, not mindless puppets.

If they are afraid, angry, pissed, enraged, etc. they should breathe fire. And then the ship should burn rather quickly.

None of Dany's dragons should like beneath decks on a ship. They don't like it beneath the pyramid, either.

You mean him going hunting? But the horses are prey, the ships are not. If a dragon gets agitated, then that means there's some serious danger on the ship. Are you trying to say their fire might accidentally burn down a ship? it's a possibility, but I'm not sure how that would happen unless a fight between the dragonrider and someone else breaks out on the ship. Doesn't this happen during a battle at sea during Dance? But on a casual voyage, that would be very unlikely considering that adult dragons would be flying way overhead. 

I highly doubt the dragons can be kept beneath the decks considering their size. Viserion and Rhaegal doesn't like living confined in that pyramid because it's confinement.  But they have lived in tents and similar confined spaces with Dany just fine. Like with the Targ ancestors, the dragons would always fly with the ships, not stay in the cabins or on deck. They are just too big. 

I think they just follow the dragonrider around when instructed. The humans would need to learn how to ride dragons for days on end if they are to be expert dragonriders. It's like the Mongols and their horses (or the Dothraki in the story). They can travel farther distances than average riders on horseback, and even learned to sleep on horseback. The Mongols were just super mobile on horseback, which is the main advantage they got in war over their enemies. The dragonriders, at least the original ones from Valyria, were probably similar. They were flying between cities crossing vast distances and oceans on dragonback without a problem. 

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aurane Waters has set himself up in the Stepstones. He knows about Daenerys and the dragons but he doesn't care.

We don't know what Aurane Waters cares or not, but these dromons should be put in use at some point of the story, otherwise why bother?

But I think there might be the answer to your question. Flying island to island through the Stepstones should be possible for the dragons and their riders with the navy following close. No need of long distance flies.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You really think Rhaegal (or any dragon) would fly straight to Westeros because of the horn?

I actually think the horn will not work as advertised, but who knows? Maybe I'm wrong and Euron gets his dragon that way, although I'm pretty sure what he gets is that "great stone beast breathing shadow fire", whatever is that

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And at this point it would Victarion in any case who would gain a dragon via the horn. He has Moqorro to help him with that - and if Moqorro wants a Greyjoy to claim a dragon it is Victarion, not Euron.

Victarion is a toast, literally. Either he falls to the temptation and blow the horn himself, and burns from inside, or Rhaegal roast him, or Moqorro himself does it. What Moqorro wants is to forestall Euron, he doesn't care about Victarion.

 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The question would be whether they would want to take the Demon Road. Possibly not. If they go through the Dothraki Sea and then via Qohor or Norvos whoever accompanies the land forces is not likely going to stay in contact with the naval forces. Volantis could be taken by the navy alone, considering that the very sight of a dragonrider above the city would likely be enough to cause a slave-uprising. Not to mention that they would go west in Volantene ships, which should allow them to enter the harbor without any problems.

I'd love to see the Demon Road, Maybe I'll get that wish.

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4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

The dragonfire would melt the snow, and whatever underneath would take fire.

Perhaps after it the structure was bathed in flame of 15 minutes or so. The snow would melt, yes, and then the things beneath it would be wet.

4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

The snow will prevent the fire from spreading, unlike in the summer. If it's stone, then it may not matter if the stone is hot or cold or covered in snow. Balerion burned down Harrenhal by melting the stone and everyone inside just got baked to death.  Dragonfire burns several thousand degrees high so snow would be near instantly evaporated.  

Not all dragonfire burns so hot. Only the fire or large and old dragons. The fire of young dragons cannot melt stone.

4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

When Dany comes to Westeros, I think her concern is not going to be about conquest. Even if it is, she may not really need to go around burning down random houses.

Nobody was talking about random houses. It would be important targets in a war waged by Dany in Westeros. But that is not likely going to happen for the reasons mentioned above. It was already snowing in KL in the Epilogue.

4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

In ASOS I think, she dreams she's at the Trident burning down  Robert's army, here clad in ice. It's possible that when Dany shows up, winter is already here and WW have advanced as far south as the Riverlands. 

Winter is there already. And it should be much colder when Dany finally arrives, with snow falling not only in KL but also in Storm's End, Highgarden, Oldtown, and even in Dorne.

4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

Yes, when crossing the ocean, they might not encounter islets at all. But obviously there's a way the dragonrider can survive on dragoback for long distances, as seen with Aegon I who crossed the narrow sea to Essos on dragonback. Maybe they can pack food or water. Or they probably only need to learn to stay mounted for a day, like flying from North America to Asia. The non-stop flights can last nearly a day, and you just sleep it off mostly. On a massive dragon, this is very likely possible. But probably not on a smaller dragon the size of Viserion or Rhaegal in Dance. 

Not sure, but it might be that a dragon can make the journey Dragonstone-Pentos in a single day (and perhaps even a night), too.

4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

So she's the fire witch? Really?

That is the implication, yes. It isn't confirmed or anything, but she is the only female dragonrider we know of who may have ended up in the Mountains of the Moon, and she had more than enough reason to go underground in a place like that.

4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

They don't have to go there and wait for Dany, the dragon can fly back and forth. Make a temporary lair until the dragonrider finally calls. but Dany would fly ahead on the dragons. There's no need for her to be on the ship, if she does cross to Essos in the manner of the show. The dragons are knowledgeable I think. Given their flying nature, they would need to have a good sense of navigation. Drogon survived on the Dothraki sea on his own, but he never veered far from Dany. 

Oh, I agree that the dragonriders don't have to go with the ships, but it might be that one or two of them decide they want to go with the ships. If Vic became a dragonrider he likely would want to stay with his ships and men. The same might even go for Euron. And depending what Dany's war ships are supposed to do Dany might also be inclined to be with them rather than safely in the air or at the shore. Or rather: She might want to be with the fleet with her dragon to take wing during a naval battle or when they attack a coastal city.

Actually doing that might turn out to be difficult, though.

4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

You mean him going hunting? But the horses are prey, the ships are not. If a dragon gets agitated, then that means there's some serious danger on the ship. Are you trying to say their fire might accidentally burn down a ship? it's a possibility, but I'm not sure how that would happen unless a fight between the dragonrider and someone else breaks out on the ship. Doesn't this happen during a battle at sea during Dance? But on a casual voyage, that would be very unlikely considering that adult dragons would be flying way overhead.

The dragons grow more and more daughters in ASoS and ADwD, snapping even at people they knew since birth like Dany's maids. A dragon claimed by a rider might be less, well, independent, but there is no reason to believe that he would take shit from anyone or always behave like a good little puppy.

For instance, Rhaenyra most definitely did not want her Syrax to kill Prince Joffrey, but she still did. She didn't burn or devour him but she killed him anyway, and the same way one of Dany's dragons could certainly accidentally burn down one of her ships.

4 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

I highly doubt the dragons can be kept beneath the decks considering their size. Viserion and Rhaegal doesn't like living confined in that pyramid because it's confinement.  But they have lived in tents and similar confined spaces with Dany just fine. Like with the Targ ancestors, the dragons would always fly with the ships, not stay in the cabins or on deck. They are just too big.

Well, that carries the risk of them not being there when their rider - based on one of the ships - needs his or her dragon. If a dragonrider travels by ship for a longer period of time both the dragonrider and the dragon should have a basis on the ship.

And, of course, they could not keep the dragons against their will beneath decks on a ship - which should become a serious issue if the horn actually worked the way it was supposed to and Vic has to take 2-3 dragons to Westeros by ship. He cannot ride all of them. In fact, he might not be able to ride of them at this point considering his size and weight in comparison to the dragons. A dragon who can barely carry Dany can most definitely not carry Victarion. Especially not a Victarion wearing armor.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

We don't know what Aurane Waters cares or not, but these dromons should be put in use at some point of the story, otherwise why bother?

Well, if Aurane is going to suck up to somebody in the near future it should either be Aegon (who could use his ships) or Euron (who might take his ships and his life if he doesn't bend the knee).

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

But I think there might be the answer to your question. Flying island to island through the Stepstones should be possible for the dragons and their riders with the navy following close. No need of long distance flies.

Sure, that could work.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I actually think the horn will not work as advertised, but who knows? Maybe I'm wrong and Euron gets his dragon that way, although I'm pretty sure what he gets is that "great stone beast breathing shadow fire", whatever is that.

Not likely one of Dany's dragons. If George wanted Euron to claim one of them he and not Vic would have gone to Slaver's Bay. That would be the way and the moment for him to claim either Viserion or Rhaegal.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Victarion is a toast, literally. Either he falls to the temptation and blow the horn himself, and burns from inside, or Rhaegal roast him, or Moqorro himself does it. What Moqorro wants is to forestall Euron, he doesn't care about Victarion.

Vic might already have the chance to blow the horn and live know. Moqorro imbued him with fire. Is he still a mortal man? We don't know.

I also expect him to be burned and devoured (half-)alive by Rhaegal - who is not likely going to react the way Vic expects to the horn blow(s) - but we don't know that yet.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I'd love to see the Demon Road, Maybe I'll get that wish.

If Dany would want to take the city both from land and sea it might be the way to go. Even if she doesn't make the plan, Tyrion and the others might decide to finally go west without her, having a part of the army march on land while the others go with their many ships.

For Dany it would be more effective to just send some Dothraki to Volantis - which would mean they cross the Dorthraki Sea and do not take the Demon Road.

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18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Perhaps after it the structure was bathed in flame of 15 minutes or so. The snow would melt, yes, and then the things beneath it would be wet.

 

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not all dragonfire burns so hot. Only the fire or large and old dragons. The fire of young dragons cannot melt stone.

Quote

The power of the fire depends on the dragon's age of course, but it still burns really hot. Viserion manages to make himself a lair underneath the pyramid they are locked in by burning off stone bricks. Drogon, when he's an adult, would be like Balerion. I'm not a physicist but I don't think it takes 15 minutes to melt snow about an inch or two high under heat that is several thousand degrees high. The water would evaporate naturally as the heat is applied.  Even if the fire doesn't spread, it can still do some serious damage. 

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The dragons grow more and more daughters in ASoS and ADwD, snapping even at people they knew since birth like Dany's maids. A dragon claimed by a rider might be less, well, independent, but there is no reason to believe that he would take shit from anyone or always behave like a good little puppy.

For instance, Rhaenyra most definitely did not want her Syrax to kill Prince Joffrey, but she still did. She didn't burn or devour him but she killed him anyway, and the same way one of Dany's dragons could certainly accidentally burn down one of her ships

That prince mounts Syrax and she kills him. I don't see Rhaenyra trying to stop it anywhere. 

It's Dany that takes care of the dragons when they are hatchlings, not the maids, so they snap at others who are not Dany. I think this is where the dragon affinity comes in. Of course, if the dragon is mistreated, it would defend itself. I think it's a case of mistreatment that happens with Syrax. I mean, the prince rides her when she doesn't want to. In any case, the Valyrians had a massive naval fleet and dragons. They two don't seem to have had any trouble going together. 

If Dany is ever in a battle to take a coastal city, she just needs to go ahead on a dragon and burn down the ships. Much more effective than cannons. 

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And, of course, they could not keep the dragons against their will beneath decks on a ship - which should become a serious issue if the horn actually worked the way it was supposed to and Vic has to take 2-3 dragons to Westeros by ship. He cannot ride all of them. In fact, he might not be able to ride of them at this point considering his size and weight in comparison to the dragons. A dragon who can barely carry Dany can most definitely not carry Victarion. Especially not a Victarion wearing armor.

Even if anyone other than Dany manages to get dragons to bend to their will, they are just too big now to be carried on ship. Even Viserion and Rhaegal are big dragons now. And since they've been out, they've been getting bigger. I think these dragons are bigger than horses, so they can probably carry Victarion, even in armor. Even some ponies can carry an adult man in armor. But let's face it, this isn't happening. At least not with Victarion. 

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20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Perhaps after it the structure was bathed in flame of 15 minutes or so. The snow would melt, yes, and then the things beneath it would be wet.

So dragons are useless in winter and particularly against the Others who can unleash severe winter storms and create a cold beyond description? I'm confused now.

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, if Aurane is going to suck up to somebody in the near future it should either be Aegon (who could use his ships) or Euron (who might take his ships and his life if he doesn't bend the knee).

Why not Dany? There is no indication in either way, although I lean more towards Aegon due to their relative geographical proximity, but someone needs to lead Dany's navy. Aurane is a possibility, Asha+Theon another or even UnVictarion.

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not likely one of Dany's dragons. If George wanted Euron to claim one of them he and not Vic would have gone to Slaver's Bay. That would be the way and the moment for him to claim either Viserion or Rhaegal.

Apparently, that was the original plan "kranken and crow" instead of "kraken and dark flame"

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Vic might already have the chance to blow the horn and live know. Moqorro imbued him with fire. Is he still a mortal man? We don't know.

Mmmmm. I haven't considered that, but there is little in his last PoVs that indicates that.

 

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15 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

The power of the fire depends on the dragon's age of course, but it still burns really hot. Viserion manages to make himself a lair underneath the pyramid they are locked in by burning off stone bricks. Drogon, when he's an adult, would be like Balerion. I'm not a physicist but I don't think it takes 15 minutes to melt snow about an inch or two high under heat that is several thousand degrees high. The water would evaporate naturally as the heat is applied.  Even if the fire doesn't spread, it can still do some serious damage. 

Aren't those bricks just normal bricks, made of clay?

And it isn't said that the dragons destroyed them with the fire alone, they used their claws, too, which are powerful as well.

15 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

That prince mounts Syrax and she kills him. I don't see Rhaenyra trying to stop it anywhere. 

The comparison would be that Dany is on the ship somewhere - as Rhaenyra was in the throne room of the Red Keep - and then something happens with her dragon beneath decks/in the yard. If Rhaenyra's presence cannot prevent Syrax from killing her own son, then Dany's presence is not likely going to be enough to prevent a dragon from accidentally burning a ship...

15 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

It's Dany that takes care of the dragons when they are hatchlings, not the maids, so they snap at others who are not Dany. I think this is where the dragon affinity comes in. Of course, if the dragon is mistreated, it would defend itself. I think it's a case of mistreatment that happens with Syrax. I mean, the prince rides her when she doesn't want to. In any case, the Valyrians had a massive naval fleet and dragons. They two don't seem to have had any trouble going together.

The point here is also that Dany does not wish any of her dragons to snap at her maids and friends. Yet they do it anyway. Although the difference there is that she hasn't yet claimed any of them. We'll have to wait and see how Drogon is going to treat Dany's friends after they interact again, now that Drogon definitely belongs to her.

15 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

Even if anyone other than Dany manages to get dragons to bend to their will, they are just too big now to be carried on ship. Even Viserion and Rhaegal are big dragons now. And since they've been out, they've been getting bigger. I think these dragons are bigger than horses, so they can probably carry Victarion, even in armor. Even some ponies can carry an adult man in armor. But let's face it, this isn't happening. At least not with Victarion. 

The way the situation in Daznak's Pit is described indicates that Drogon still struggles to carry Dany into the air. The size of the dragon doesn't necessarily mean it has the strength to carry any weight. Victarion (in armor) is much heavier than Dany the little girl (or Tyrion).

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

So dragons are useless in winter and particularly against the Others who can unleash severe winter storms and create a cold beyond description? I'm confused now.

Well, if the Others are weak against dragonfire - which they might be, who knows? - then they will be melted by it. I was talking about structures covered in snow being attacked by dragonfire.

And, of course, if the Others can create snowstorms and blizzards and hailstorms then they should effectively neutralize the dragons. Even if they could withstand weather like that, their riders might not.

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Why not Dany? There is no indication in either way, although I lean more towards Aegon due to their relative geographical proximity, but someone needs to lead Dany's navy. Aurane is a possibility, Asha+Theon another or even UnVictarion.

If Aurane cared about Dany, he wouldn't be in the Stepstones right now, he would be on his way to Meereen. Sure, he could team up with her eventually, but she is not likely going to come soon. He might be long dead by then.

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Apparently, that was the original plan "kranken and crow" instead of "kraken and dark flame"

Wouldn't that have been Aemon back then? I think you refer to the old reports we had from the readings when AFfC/ADwD were still supposed to be one book? Back then Quaithe may have believe Aemon was on his way to Dany.

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Mmmmm. I haven't considered that, but there is little in his last PoVs that indicates that.

His arm is smoking. And he actually does worship R'hllor now, in his own way. He is no longer a normal human being.

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Interesting stuff LV.  I've only read the OP, so forgive me if I'm being repetitive..

On 3/29/2018 at 7:19 PM, Lord Varys said:

Later, we have the problem of how Quicksilver got to the Westerlands to be claimed by Prince Aegon. Considering that a dragon only follows the directions of its rider - and his rider was King Aenys who was dead - it is very implausible to assume she got to Casterly Rock by herself. A journey by ship sounds even more unlikely considering her size and the danger this would pose for the ship and its crew (not to mention the lack of motivation of pretty much anyone to do something as risky as that).

Ok, so this seems to be the first thing that's truly problematic, right?  How Quicksilver went from Aenys to Prince Aegon.  Allow me to propose a mechanism - the dragon bond is similar to the direwolf bond we see with the Starks.  If there is some type of "pack" bond between the Stark direwolves - which has been demonstrated - perhaps there is something similar with dragons, particularly when they simultaneously bond with very close kin.  So, we have Rhaena's Dreamfyre that was presumably with her with Prince Aegon.  Upon Aenys' death, is it not plausible that Quicksilver enjoyed some type of bond so as to come to Aegon in the Westerlands?

On 3/29/2018 at 7:19 PM, Lord Varys said:

Later still we have the same weirdo naval dragon logistics when Alyssa Velaryon and her children (presumably) escape with two dragons by ship, and are able to hide with two dragons either in the Free Cities (nonsense, if you ask me) or at Storm's End/the Stormlands (even more more nonsense, if you ask me).

Chances are about zero that they could have hidden that way, but they are even lower that anybody would have been willing to accept dragons of considerable size on ships.

I don't know SotD as well as you, surely (or really that well at all), but looking over the World Book, I don't really see a problem here.  At least one that can't simply be explained away by the bond between dragon and rider.  Why can't dragons travel along the ships carrying their masters, or even be tamed within?  Are they "hidden" in such a way?  Well, no, not inasmuch as I think you are looking for, but certainly they would be out of the reach of certain enemies for the time being.  And either Storm's End, or the Free Cities of Tyrosh or Volantis sound like fairly safe exile for Alyssa to spirit her children toward.  To me the more immediate question would be why didn't the leadership of Tyrosh or Volantis try to seize the dragons upon arrival.

Anyway, if you accept that dragonbonding is similar to the direwolf bond we've seen, I think this all makes sense, and will be for Dany's journey back to Westeros.  I also think this type of bond is indicated in ADWD by Drogon's timely arrival in Daznak's Pit just as Dany realizes someone was trying to poison her.  If you don't accept the riders have some type of mastery control over the dragons, then yeah, any type of seafaring is always a suicidal notion.

Finally, on this topic, I'm still wondering how Jaenara Belaerys and Terrax traveled Sothoryos for three years on their own.  Explain that! ;)

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Maybe the dragonriders can control the dragon in a basic way, like driving a car, which might be one of the reasons that makes them dragonriders in the first place. 

Then again, I agree that one of the two-the dragon or the rider, must know how to get to the wanted destination, which is hard to say how it's done when they fly to that place for the first time. 

While at it, how high do they ride? I never noticed. The rider can see the way to the wanted point on a map before flying, so when they depart, on a certain height the rider can know where to go, and it's easier if the rider can control the animal via simple commands. This would be possible if the rider goes from point A to point B in Westeros, for example, but still difficult flying to oversea places.

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1 hour ago, dmc515 said:

Interesting stuff LV.  I've only read the OP, so forgive me if I'm being repetitive..

Ok, so this seems to be the first thing that's truly problematic, right?  How Quicksilver went from Aenys to Prince Aegon.  Allow me to propose a mechanism - the dragon bond is similar to the direwolf bond we see with the Starks.  If there is some type of "pack" bond between the Stark direwolves - which has been demonstrated - perhaps there is something similar with dragons, particularly when they simultaneously bond with very close kin.  So, we have Rhaena's Dreamfyre that was presumably with her with Prince Aegon.  Upon Aenys' death, is it not plausible that Quicksilver enjoyed some type of bond so as to come to Aegon in the Westerlands?

The problem with that idea is that the riderless dragons actually need to be claimed, and do not fly around looking for people to ride them. For instance, we don't see Silverwing, Vermithor, and Seasmoke actively search out potential riders, never mind that plenty of dragonless Targaryens were around - Viserys I, Aemond, Lady Rhaena, Prince Viserys, and all the children of Rhaenyra, Daemon, Alicent, and Aegon II before the eggs they got did hatch.

In addition, we have dragons killing each other and bonding with people who are not exactly friends with their previous riders (the example would be Vhagar who passed from Laena Velaryon to Aemond Targaryen).

This doesn't fit all that well with a 'pack loyalty' thing. But even if that were a thing, why on earth did Quicksilver search out Prince Aegon rather than bond with Alyssa Velaryon or Aenys' second son, Prince Viserys, who were there on Dragonstone when King Aenys died? As of yet we have no evidence that Prince Viserys was a dragonrider, so he would have been free to claim Quicksilver, no?

And the idea that Prince Aegon was dragonless as Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne also sounds rather implausible, in light of the fact that his sister-wife and his two youngest siblings were dragonriders. This is why I have speculated that Aegon may have had a dragon with him in the West who was killed there by the Poor Fellows when they were forced to seek refuge at Crakehall.

We also have to assume that Rhaena was separated from her for a considerable time since she didn't accompany Prince Aegon to the Gods Eye - which is odd considering that two dragons would have been better than one. Not to mention that both of them should have been able to escape the Poor Fellows if Dreamfyre had been with them. Last time I looked, dragon could fly. Why didn't Rhaena and Aegon (or only Rhaena, if Dreamfyre couldn't carry them both) escape from Crakehall on dragonback? Why didn't they use their dragon(s) to attack the Poor Fellows?

1 hour ago, dmc515 said:

I don't know SotD as well as you, surely (or really that well at all), but looking over the World Book, I don't really see a problem here.  At least one that can't simply be explained away by the bond between dragon and rider.  Why can't dragons travel along the ships carrying their masters, or even be tamed within?  Are they "hidden" in such a way?  Well, no, not inasmuch as I think you are looking for, but certainly they would be out of the reach of certain enemies for the time being.  And either Storm's End, or the Free Cities of Tyrosh or Volantis sound like fairly safe exile for Alyssa to spirit her children toward.  To me the more immediate question would be why didn't the leadership of Tyrosh or Volantis try to seize the dragons upon arrival.

TSotD makes it clear that Alyssa and the children disappeared from everybody's radar when they escaped Dragonstone by ship. Tyanna and Maegor could not find them, despite the fact that (for all we know) they would have escaped with two dragons of considerable size - when Jaehaerys I and Alysanne show up later again they are dragonriders. That simply isn't very plausible.

Especially since in the same text the author declares that Princess Rhaena couldn't hide from Maegor the way her children could (by changing their names, dying their hair, etc. - which didn't work in the end) because she couldn't possibly hide her dragon. But apparently Jaehaerys and Alysanne could. Which makes little sense.

If they had shown up in the Free Cities or Storm's End with dragons somebody would have talked. Dragons are beautiful, wondrous creatures. And if Lord Baratheon had suddenly shut down his castle, refusing to allow his servants and men to leave the castle Maegor and Tyanna would have learned about that, too. Storm's End isn't exactly that far away from KL, is it?

1 hour ago, dmc515 said:

Anyway, if you accept that dragonbonding is similar to the direwolf bond we've seen, I think this all makes sense, and will be for Dany's journey back to Westeros.  I also think this type of bond is indicated in ADWD by Drogon's timely arrival in Daznak's Pit just as Dany realizes someone was trying to poison her.  If you don't accept the riders have some type of mastery control over the dragons, then yeah, any type of seafaring is always a suicidal notion.

Sorry, but Drogon most definitely didn't come back to Meereen to save Daenerys. He grew so wild that he nearly killed her, and he gives on indication that he wanted to prevent her from eating the locusts that were already long gone by the time he arrived.

1 hour ago, dmc515 said:

Finally, on this topic, I'm still wondering how Jaenara Belaerys and Terrax traveled Sothoryos for three years on their own.  Explain that! ;)

I guess that actually can make sense if you imagine her as an adventurer with survival skills. Sothoryos isn't an empty place. She could have gotten food and supplies in various villages and settlements, not to mention the possibility that she and Terrax hunted down animals together (the way Dany and Drogon do in the Dothraki Sea). Depending on the size of her dragon she could also have carried some equipment - a tent, etc. - on Terrax's back.

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