Sansa retakes the North

[Corvo the Crow]

Only way Sansa goes North or anywhere outside Vale is on a boat like papa wolf Ned did back in the day. Winter has come so Kniggets of the Veil will stay put no matter how much they are eager to vawe the eagle.

Stannis the Menace will do a winter cleaning in the North starting with suns of winter, only then will Sansa return home because only then she'll have a home again.

News of Rickon or Jon returning home may aid her decision making.

Since I offered she may go with a boat like Ned, it is also possible she is smuggled out of the Vale as it was with Danaerys, Viserys and Edric Storm.

[Clegane'sPup]

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Since I offered she may go with a boat like Ned, it is also possible she is smuggled out of the Vale as it was with Danaerys, Viserys and Edric Storm.

I'm joking around so pay me no heed. Sansa ferries the army of the Vale and their horses on that ship that is awaiting her at Gulltown or does she travel over the mountains and through the Fingers stopping at the Three Sisters where she partakes in that scrumptious stew----

served in a trencher hollowed out of a stale loaf, thick with leeks, carrots, barley, and turnips white and yellow, along with clams and chunks of cod and crabmeat, swimming in a stock of heavy cream and butter. Yum.

[Corvo the Crow]

7 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I'm joking around so pay me no heed. Sansa ferries the army of the Vale and their horses on that ship that is awaiting her at Gulltown or does she travel over the mountains and through the Fingers stopping at the Three Sisters where she partakes in that scrumptious stew----

served in a trencher hollowed out of a stale loaf, thick with leeks, carrots, barley, and turnips white and yellow, along with clams and chunks of cod and crabmeat, swimming in a stock of heavy cream and butter. Yum.

In this world only winter is certain so one must taste the sister's stew if they can. You never know if  you'll have the oppurtunity again... or the brown beer to go with it.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Martin has set up much of the plot to hinge on false beliefs about heirs being dead. His problem now is to get the timing of the revelations that they are in fact alive, just right. I think he is facing a problem, because getting that timing right is pretty difficult.

Sansa's value rests exclusively on her being the last surviving Stark heir. But we know that this is invalidated three times over, by the survival of Bran and Rickon and Jon being named heir by Robb.

Similarly, Jon being heir to Winterfell is based on the assumption that Bran and Rickon are dead, and when they are revealed to be alive, Jon's future plot is impacted significantly as well.

To top it all off, once Jon is revealed to be the heir to the Iron Throne, it throws Robb's will into turmoil even further. So the chronology pretty much as to be:

1. Sansa marries Harry while she is still presumed to be heir to Winterfell.

2. Robb's will is revealed and Jon becomes ruler of Winterfell.

3. Rickon arrives and Jon cedes Winterfell to him, acting as his regent instead to see out the coming war

4. Things get really dire before Jon is revealed as heir to the Iron Throne and rallies the entire Westeros behind him to defeat the Others.

Now, the above chronology becomes pretty hard to achieve, given Jon's current state, Rickon's current whereabouts, and a whole host of other factors that must still occur. Change the order of any of the above, and it has a lot of knock on effects that make the plot go in a completely different direction.

 

[Corvo the Crow]

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Martin has set up much of the plot to hinge on false beliefs about heirs being dead. His problem now is to get the timing of the revelations that they are in fact alive, just right. I think he is facing a problem, because getting that timing right is pretty difficult.

Sansa's value rests exclusively on her being the last surviving Stark heir. But we know that this is invalidated three times over, by the survival of Bran and Rickon and Jon being named heir by Robb.

Similarly, Jon being heir to Winterfell is based on the assumption that Bran and Rickon are dead, and when they are revealed to be alive, Jon's future plot is impacted significantly as well.

To top it all off, once Jon is revealed to be the heir to the Iron Throne, it throws Robb's will into turmoil even further. So the chronology pretty much as to be:

1. Sansa marries Harry while she is still presumed to be heir to Winterfell.

2. Robb's will is revealed and Jon becomes ruler of Winterfell.

3. Rickon arrives and Jon cedes Winterfell to him, acting as his regent instead to see out the coming war

4. Things get really dire before Jon is revealed as heir to the Iron Throne and rallies the entire Westeros behind him to defeat the Others.

Now, the above chronology becomes pretty hard to achieve, given Jon's current state, Rickon's current whereabouts, and a whole host of other factors that must still occur. Change the order of any of the above, and it has a lot of knock on effects that make the plot go in a completely different direction.

 

Wasn't Dany supposed to go to asshai but it was later taken down? If one plot is changed, others can also get some changes.

[Chris Mormont]

If Sansa retakes the North and Rickon is returned, then a regent will be needed since Sansa is not of age either.  I do not think she will take WF from Rickon, because a) I think she has gained respect for family and (b) the Northern Lords would then be divided, but she could request the Dreadfort for herself.

[Lollygag]

A lot of people are saying that the North will be inaccessible very soon, but I really don't recall anything to that effect in the text. Winter eases in, it doesn't just start like a switch. Instead of becoming instantly inaccessible, it would be becoming increasingly difficult as time goes on. And Winter still has warm spells, especially as one is still near to Fall and again as it gets close to Spring. Having the North just shut down sounds like it'd just bring a number of plotlines to a screeching halt for years which would make for a dull book.

If the North was really looking at being closed down for possibly years because of the long summer, then I think we'd see a different reaction from the various characters. Unless I'm forgetting something?

[The Mother of The Others]

On Vale Troop mobility northward--

This stiff epiph isn't real likely to happen , but it is a particularly "iconic" image that popped into my brain- - 

Dragons aren't super useful in the ice on an average day.  They aren't going to "turn things around" necessarily.  But if you have a trained dragon and you're standing at the mouth of a frozen river?!?!   You have the ability to get a floatila of ships up that waterway in the deep of winter when it should be impossible by anyone else's tactical thinking.  Unfreezing rivers, like deploying ice busting equipment right in front of the ships.   There's a five star dragon app.   (There is that rare contingent of fans who see a future where Sansa enjoys ridership of such a beast, pre-softened by Bran's inter- mentalizing.)

 

[Clegane'sPup]

58 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

A lot of people are saying that the North will be inaccessible very soon, but I really don't recall anything to that effect in the text. Winter eases in,

The snow storm starts somewhere in the last third of the book. It is talked about in the Theon (who is with Bolton) and Asha (who is with Stannis) chapters. Keep in mind that martin switched up using name chapters with descriptive titles for chapters.

Supposedly there are 100 leagues (approximately 300 miles) between Deepwood and WF; a fifteen day journey. Approximately 32 days after leaving Deepwood Stannis’ crew roll up into the crofter’s village starving and weather beaten with rumor that they are three days from WF.

What is happening in the Neck I do not know. Just keep in mind the the Vale lords would need to mass, travel to the King's Road, pass through the Neck (where Howland and the bog devils reign). Do you perchance remember one of the reasons that is is difficult to invade the North?

I keep repeating this ---- the north is snow bound --- Sansa is planning a tourney at the foot of the Eyrie. The Eyrie is shut down because winter is coming and the people do not want to be stranded high up on the mountain.

Two examples of what is happening in and around WF are below.

A Dance with Dragons - A Ghost in Winterfell      "He [Stannis]  could be camped five feet from our walls with a hundred thousand men," said an archer wearing Cerwyn colors. "We'd never see a one o' them through this storm."    Endless, ceaseless, merciless, the snow had fallen day and night. Drifts climbed the walls and filled the crenels along the battlements, white blankets covered every roof, tents sagged beneath the weight. Ropes were strung from hall to hall to help men keep from getting lost as they crossed the yards. Sentries crowded into the guard turrets to warm half-frozen hands over glowing braziers, leaving the wallwalks to the snowy sentinels the squires had thrown up, who grew larger and stranger every night as wind and weather worked their will upon them./

A Dance with Dragons - The King's Prize     But it snowed again the next day, and the day after, and the day after that. The thick beards of the wolves were soon caked with ice where their breath had frozen, and every clean-shaved southron boy was letting his whiskers grow out to keep his face warm. Before long the ground ahead of the column was blanketed in white, concealing stones and twisted roots and deadfalls, turning every step into an adventure. The wind picked up as well, driving the snow before it. The king's host became a column of snowmen, staggering through knee-high drifts.

On the third day of snow, the king's host began to come apart. Whilst the southron knights and lordlings struggled, the men of the northern hills fared better. Their garrons were sure-footed beasts that ate less than palfreys, and much less than the big destriers, and the men who rode them were at home in the snow. Many of the wolves donned curious footwear. Bear-paws, they called them, queer elongated things made with bent wood and leather strips. Lashed onto the bottoms of their boots, the things somehow allowed them to walk on top of the snow without breaking through the crust and sinking down to their thighs./

 

[Nowy Tends]

2 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

If Sansa retakes the North and Rickon is returned, then a regent will be needed since Sansa is not of age either. 

But by the time she's able to go back to the North, after the events in the Vale (mariage, etc.) she should be of age, or nearly?

[Lollygag]

4 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

The snow storm starts somewhere in the last third of the book. It is talked about in the Theon (who is with Bolton) and Asha (who is with Stannis) chapters. Keep in mind that martin switched up using name chapters with descriptive titles for chapters.

Supposedly there are 100 leagues (approximately 300 miles) between Deepwood and WF; a fifteen day journey. Approximately 32 days after leaving Deepwood Stannis’ crew roll up into the crofter’s village starving and weather beaten with rumor that they are three days from WF.

What is happening in the Neck I do not know. Just keep in mind the the Vale lords would need to mass, travel to the King's Road, pass through the Neck (where Howland and the bog devils reign). Do you perchance remember one of the reasons that is is difficult to invade the North?

I keep repeating this ---- the north is snow bound --- Sansa is planning a tourney at the foot of the Eyrie. The Eyrie is shut down because winter is coming and the people do not want to be stranded high up on the mountain.

Two examples of what is happening in and around WF are below.

A Dance with Dragons - A Ghost in Winterfell      "He [Stannis]  could be camped five feet from our walls with a hundred thousand men," said an archer wearing Cerwyn colors. "We'd never see a one o' them through this storm."    Endless, ceaseless, merciless, the snow had fallen day and night. Drifts climbed the walls and filled the crenels along the battlements, white blankets covered every roof, tents sagged beneath the weight. Ropes were strung from hall to hall to help men keep from getting lost as they crossed the yards. Sentries crowded into the guard turrets to warm half-frozen hands over glowing braziers, leaving the wallwalks to the snowy sentinels the squires had thrown up, who grew larger and stranger every night as wind and weather worked their will upon them./

 

A Dance with Dragons - The King's Prize     But it snowed again the next day, and the day after, and the day after that. The thick beards of the wolves were soon caked with ice where their breath had frozen, and every clean-shaved southron boy was letting his whiskers grow out to keep his face warm. Before long the ground ahead of the column was blanketed in white, concealing stones and twisted roots and deadfalls, turning every step into an adventure. The wind picked up as well, driving the snow before it. The king's host became a column of snowmen, staggering through knee-high drifts.

On the third day of snow, the king's host began to come apart. Whilst the southron knights and lordlings struggled, the men of the northern hills fared better. Their garrons were sure-footed beasts that ate less than palfreys, and much less than the big destriers, and the men who rode them were at home in the snow. Many of the wolves donned curious footwear. Bear-paws, they called them, queer elongated things made with bent wood and leather strips. Lashed onto the bottoms of their boots, the things somehow allowed them to walk on top of the snow without breaking through the crust and sinking down to their thighs./

 

Ah, I think I wasn't clear.

I was questioning the assertion that the North would be inaccessible until Spring which isn't how Winter works. Yeah, getting North during a storm is tough, maybe impossible, but Winter isn't one solid storm.

For the record, I don't think Sansa will lead the Vale let alone lead the Vale army North. I just don't see this storm as a reason to believe the Northern plotlines just stop nor do I see it as any reason movement back and forth between the North and South just stops especially as it's barely into Winter yet. It just means it becomes more difficult and makes timing an issue.

Thanks for the response though!

[Clegane'sPup]

8 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

For the record, I don't think Sansa will lead the Vale let alone lead the Vale army North.

okay

27 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I was questioning the assertion that the North would be inaccessible until Spring which isn't how Winter works

okay

[The Drunkard]

There's no reason for Sansa (or Littlefinger, given he's in charge) to invade the north throughout winter. Not only is it a logistical nightmare, any potential invader has nothing to gain from getting entangled in the current northern conflict. Like Tywin planned, they'd be better off waiting until spring when Stannis, Roose and the ironborn would have smashed themselves to pieces or else had their armies starved away. If the Vale were to invade now they'd need to take on the victor at Winterfell and then keep themselves fed throughout the occupation, all of which resolves itself if they delay for a few years. 

[Chris Mormont]

22 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Two examples of what is happening in and around WF are below.

These examples are exactly what you said, what is happening in and around WF.  Stannis had to travel through the Wolfswood, from the north.  If an army were to come from the Vale, they would be coming from the South up the Kingsroad, the weather and the route would be better.

[Clegane'sPup]

4 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

These examples are exactly what you said, what is happening in and around WF.

Stannis had to travel through the Wolfswood, from the north.

If an army were to come from the Vale, they would be coming from the South up the Kingsroad, the weather and the route would be better.

Okay.

Sam and Jon aren’t sure whether the Others bring the cold or whether the cold brings the Others. There a few ways to interpret martin’s saga. One being winter is coming and so is the long night.

How far winter and the long night extend throughout Westeros is beyond my pay grade. It does however affect the comings and goings of the Westeros population.

The Eryie has been shut down and the inhabitants have moved to the bottom of the mountain. While the blizzard is happening up north and Sansa is planning a tourney.

Keep in mind that LC Snow has been taken out of commission after he received and read the pink/bastard letter. Stannis is hunkered down at a crofters village. Bolton has sent out Frey & Manderly troops to find and defeat Stannis. Theon and Jeyne are in Stannis’ grasp. Stannis has Asha. The Banker, the one that made a deal with LC Snow, is now at Stannis’ camp waiting to trudge back to Castle Black so he can then travel back to Eastwatch and take a ship back to Braavos (another dilemma).

I have twice acknowledged that maybe in Spring the Vale lords will travel to WF. As it stands during Dance the Vale lords are unhappy with LF. Sansa is a fugitive. I simply do not see the Vale lords traveling to WF in Winter be it the book or the weather unless they go there to help fight off the impending Other attack.

Which brings up another theory--- is the Wall going to fall allowing the Others/white walkers and their minions the wights to invade. And I am back to does the cold bring the Others or do the Others bring the cold.

As to the title thread question, Sansa, in my humble opinion does not re-take WF. If martin and Manderly haven’t sent Davos on a wild goose chase to find Rickon, Rickon will rule whatever is left of WF through an appointed adult. That is unless Bran comes home. He too will need an appointed adult.

Then there is the theory about Robb’s will and Jon Snow.

Take into consideration that if Stannis manages to take WF from the Bolton’s he’s going to plant one of his loyalists there before he heads back to CB and the Nightfort. Will the northmen bow to one of Stannis’ southern loyalists?

There are a lot of ifs, whats, ands and buts, yes? That’s why I rarely hard fast dispute stuff. That and the fact that occasionally some of my posts are removed from a thread.

If a person were to look at the map included in DwD ---- Deepwood is approximately 300 miles from WF. Any guess on the distance between the Eyrie and WF not including the time it would take to traverse the mountainous area before the Vale lords reached the King’s Road?

[Nevets]

4 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

These examples are exactly what you said, what is happening in and around WF.  Stannis had to travel through the Wolfswood, from the north.  If an army were to come from the Vale, they would be coming from the South up the Kingsroad, the weather and the route would be better.

 

5 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

How far winter and the long night extend throughout Westeros is beyond my pay grade. It does however affect the comings and goings of the Westeros population.

The Eryie has been shut down and the inhabitants have moved to the bottom of the mountain. While the blizzard is happening up north and Sansa is planning a tourney.

The Vale army isn't going to go up the Kingsroad.  The road from the Vale to the Kingsroad is closed due to snow, and won't be opening any time soon.  

Any movement by the armies of the Vale is going to be by ship, which likely means through White Harbour.  What the Manderlys will think of this I don't know.  If Sansa is seen as a puppet, they could cause problems.  Otherwise, she would probably be welcomed.  

However, I see no reason for the Vale armies to leave at this time.  To me, the most likely scenario is that the Others' invade, and the Vale armies go North at Sansa's request to help the North.   By the way, for what it's worth, I don't expect Rickon to arrive south of the Wall any time soon, either.  I think he will end up in the Far North with Davos.

[Springwatch]

On 01/04/2018 at 8:13 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

There are posters who are very knowledgeable about the Vale situation. I am not one of them though. Winter is coming and I have a difficult time seeing the Vale lords marching through the snow to WF unless it is to help defeat the Others.

I'm a big fan of sweetsunray's catastrophe theory for the Vale:

That sorts out the problem of finding an arc for the Vale army.

On 01/04/2018 at 8:13 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

I think something harsh is going to take place in the Vale if Robert Arryn dies while he is under LF’s protection. Sansa participated in the lie about how Lysa died. .Sansa because she is a fugitive, is in a perilous predicament. If Robert Arryn dies or if Sansa spills the beans of what she knows, are the Vale lords going to be supportive or are they going to get angry?

Here’s another what if --- Robert Arryn does not die, LF does marry his false daughter to Harry without revealing his false daughter is Sansa Stark Lannister ---- what can 14 year old Sansa do? I still do not see the force of the Vale tramping through the snow to WF. Maybe come Spring they will.

Waiting till Spring is the only sensible option for someone wanting to invade the north (Stannis is not exactly Captain Sensible here).

The most likely reason for Sansa to go north is to escape justice. I don't think she will be able to aid Ned's people with an army or food (history repeats itself: she has no luck feeding people. "I tried to tell them, I had no bread to give them...." and "He looks like a starving child, but I have no food to give him.")

She's not powerless and without friends though.

Quote

"You will not take Winterfell!"

"Aye we will," came a cackle from the high table, where Arnolf Karstark sat with his son Arthur and three grandsons.... "We'll take it for the Ned and for his daughter. Aye, and for the Young Wolf too, him who was so cruelly slaughtered. Me and mine will show the way, if need be. I've said as much to His Good Grace the king. March,  I said, and before the moon can turn, we'll all be bathing in the blood of Freys and Boltons."

ADWD

The northerners don't blame the girls for their unwanted husbands. In fact, they have way of dealing with unwanted husbands.

[The Mother of The Others]

Less snowy on the road to the capital.

[Lollygag]

King’s Landing is going to be constant warfare with Aegon, Euron, Cersei vs Tyrells and High Sparrow, Dany and her dragons, Sand Snakes, I'm probably forgetting someone. Bloody mess. Literally. And only 2 books left. I recall GRRM saying a number of people will be sitting the IT before all is said and done. The King’s Landing we’ve seen in the past books has its days numbered.

Don’t see a place for Sansa (and a number of other characters) among all of this.

Not to mention:

• Sansa's Dad had a hand in ruining Aegon's family and life and she doesn't know that Aegon isn't all "usurper's dogs" like Viserys

• JonCon is not a Stark fan to say the least
• No way is LF going to let Sansa anywhere near Varys, which is what would happen should she and Aegon marry. It also puts her right in the line of fire of Dany and her dragons which LF isn't going to allow.

[Springwatch]

2 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Less snowy on the road to the capital.

Well, I can absolutely see Sansa appearing once more in a royal court. It's her thing. So far we've had:

• Sansa pleading before King Robert to smooth over the Trident incident.
• Sansa pleading before King Joffrey for Ned's life.
• Sansa pleading before Lady Lysa for her own life.

It's not been going well! But it's like some nightmare video game that keeps levelling up even though she never wins, and never gains the power to win. Nevertheless, this is her battle and she's got to learn to win it - fighting with words and armoured with courtesy. (Good luck with that, Sansa.)

Not necessarily in King's Landing though.