Is Varys a Blackfyre?

[Der Karrenkönig]

On ‎12‎.‎04‎.‎2018 at 2:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

One assumes Marwyn takes his glass candle with him - not to mention that any maester taking his vows actually spends time with one of the glass candles the Citadel owns. Jaqen wouldn't need the key of an archmaester to get a glass candle - assuming he would have to go to Oldtown for that at all (which is not that likely - in the Free Cities should also be some such artifacts).

The book is the thing that's supposed to be under lock and key in the vaults.

Marwyn hasn't taken his glass candle with him, he already left in the last Samwell chapter and went in direction of the port. Do you expect that he comes back and says "Oh no, I forget that glass candle." Marwyn's glass candle is burning, we don't have the indication yet, that the other glass candles of the Citadel or some in the Free Cities are burning (there are some burning glass candles in Qarth in the house of Urrathon Night-Walker, but they should be too far away to let Jaqen favor them over that one of Marwyn and he is unlikely to even know about them in the first place.) Burning glass candles are very useful ("All Valyrian sorcery was rooted in blood or fire. The sorcerers of the Freehold could see across mountains, seas, and deserts with one of these glass candles. They could enter a man's dreams and give him visions, and speak to one another half a world apart, seated before their candles."), while not burning ones aren't apparently.

Quote

Only under the assumption that we actually do know the depth of Belwas' character at this point. And I think that we can't be sure that we do.

I think we can, there should be no need for him to pose as dumb eunuch, if he isn't in fact that.

Quote

Euron has hundreds of ships. Aurane Waters has, how many? A dozen? A score? He is no match against Euron.

Ten big dromonds and likely some more ships he has boarded at the Stepstones. But those obviosly wouldn't be Aegon's only ships if he ever sails against Euron. Together with sellsword fleets from the free cities and possibly some ships of the Redwyne-Hightower-fleet that escaped Euron Aegon could very well have around 100 or even 200 war ships. We shouldn't  Forget that Euron has send most of his best battle ships with the Iron Fleet away, and he will also have casualties, perhaps high ones, in his Battle of Blood while it doesn't seem as he will board many ships there. If Aegon could find a way to attack Euron's fleet without him being possible to use "Magic" or use it only restricted (for example by surprising him or attacking his fleet while Euron is away (for example in Castarly Rock)), Euron becomes vulnerable. Euron is still likely to have the higher numbers in such a Scenario, but those dromonds equal a large number of Ironborn longships in fighting value and if Aegon uses a good tactic and perhaps trickery he could certainly win.

Quote

Euron is the great antagonist. Aegon literally pales in comparison to him. Aegon isn't even the main character of his own story. Euron isn't a POV, either, sure, but he undoubtedly the center of all those new Greyjoy POVs. Everything revolves around him.

But Aegon is little more than an extra in his story. Connington, Haldon, Lemore, Strickland, possibly even Duck are more developed characters than 'the lad'. That may change in the future, but I'm not holding my breath.

Aegon could possibly become an important character in Jon Con's, Jaime's, Brienne's, Arianne's and possibly Sansa's POVs if he will rule in his own right.

Quote

If Euron actually ends up using magic to destroy the Redwyne fleet then nobody is likely going to be stupid/mad enough to challenge him in battle. A man controlling the elements/sea is a very dangerous opponent.

A brave guy with a plan could, he would be only remembered as stupid/mad if he loses, if he wins ... well then, it is not difficult to guess what effects that would have. And you yourself assume that Euron and Dany will clash in that epic sea battle, how does it come to that then?

Quote

Anything else would be rather boring, if you ask me. It is clear that he doesn't want to infect other people, but we don't always get what we want (especially not Jon Connington). Besides, there is also a reason why the author chose to not have Connington hack off the infected fingers. That should have consequences - and him infecting other people by touching them (or though them touching his clothes, etc.) - is simply the likeliest scenario.

It could, it must not. It could be also just an explanation why Aegon's hand and former foster-father dies after he has taken the throne and Aegon must now rule on his own, for whatever consequences that could have.

Quote

Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock. And the way the Tyrells and the Faith treated her - not to mention that they murdered Ser Kevan (at least in their mind - in addition with whatever is going to happen to Tommen and Myrcella, the chances are pretty good that the majority of the West will stand with Cersei.

And if Aegon - or his people - have a hand in Tommen/Myrcella's deaths then the chances aren't that good that a majority of the Westermen will stand with Aegon. There are some Westermen I expect to join Aegon - at least at first -, the Plumms prominently among them, but if/when Cersei returns back home to Casterly Rock the West should bow to her. She is the Lioness, and she will get what she want.

Especially if she comes with her king consort, Euron Greyjoy, and a vast navy. Lannisport is coastal city. The West will fall in line or face Cersei and Euron's wrath.

Jaime likely will join Aegon - but he is just a Kingsguard knight without a family now. He rejected power and influence in the West when he refused to leave the KG. When Tommen/Myrcella are dead all authority in the West he way have had (as Lord Commander of the Kingsguard of King Tommen) will evaporate.

If Aegon kills Tommen and/or Myrcella, or they die with his blessing, Jaime wouldn't join him in the first place. And Varys would make sure that Aegon doesn't make the same mistake as Robert Baratheon when ascending his throne. They might die through someone else or Jaime could publically declare them his bastards and with that destroy their claims.

Jaime is still a respected figure in the West. If he goes there to bring as much of it as possible to Aegon's cause many would follow him even against Cersei, especially if she marries that mad pirate king. Cersei doesn't seem to have any friends in the Westerlands, while Jaime has, and then there is the fact that she grows more and more unpopular with commonborn and nobles alike. Especially the faithful will develop to Cersei's enemies in the near future. It shouldn't be too difficult for Jaime to bring them to Aegon's cause if they haven't joined it already. And Jaime could offer everyone that joins Aegon protection against Euron and Cersei.

On ‎12‎.‎04‎.‎2018 at 0:44 PM, Lord Varys said:

 

 

 

[Der Karrenkönig]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, chances are that the name 'Second Dance of the Dragons' as a name for a war between Daenerys and Aegon will come up not because there are dragons on each side but because a female pretender challenging a Targaryen king named Aegon will be very reminiscent of the Dance of the Dragons.

The Second Dance is not going to resemble the first in many ways - and the least should be the dragons. Both the dragons and the Targaryens were very numerous back during the Dance. This time we'll have just two Targaryen pretenders, and perhaps their families by marriages. Tyrion could join the fray as a dragonseed and dragonrider, Arianne may become a Targaryen by marriage (and could even give Aegon an heir, a child that could also end up being accepted as Dany's presumptive heir while she believes she can't/doesn't have any children of her own), not to mention Dany's own multiple husbands (Tyrion perhaps among them).

But unless we get the return of the Cannibal - which I'd actually like - the dragons are not going to play even remotely the same role as they did back during the First Dance. Vhagar's very existence put fear in the hearts of Rhaenyra and her followers, not to mention the people of Westeros. None of Dany's dragons will ever grow to that enormous size.

There can be dragon vs. dragon battles, of course, and the dragonriders can serve as scouts and messengers and put awe and wonder in the people of the other side, but they won't be utilized as weapons of terror. There won't be another Harrenhal, nor a Field of Fire. It will be winter. Dragonfire can burn some soldiers, but if we assume Dany's three dragonriders and a weak host being attacked by a very large host of Aegon's the dragons are not necessarily going to work miracles. If the fighting took place during a snowstorm, the dragons might not even be able to fly properly, let alone precisely target the enemy. And on the ground Dany's dragons aren't even remotely as effective or dangerous as they can be in the air.

The only real power, I think, Dany's dragons will have is the simple fact that dragons are usually see as a divine sign of kingship. Dany is the Mother of Dragons, Aegon is not. If he has to deal with her - really deal with her when she is there, he won't stand a chance. Which is why I think they will try to take her out before she can come and use her dragons as propaganda tools.

Aegon's own legitimacy could be strengthened if George gives him some dragons - say, from the eggs Illyrio likely gave him in one of those chests. If Aegon can hatch dragon eggs, too - or if his eggs just hatched, caused by the presence of Dany's dragons in the world - then he might really be seen as wondrous/magical as Daenerys. But such young dragon hatchlings are not likely going to be grow large enough to be used in a war. Still they would be living wonders and make him look better than he does now.

It is also likely going to be a rather short with three dragons on different sides. The dragons will fight, Drogon will win, and Dany is going to feed Aegon to her dragon. End of story.

I mean, if it is just Dany's dragons it should be a rather poor Dance of the Dragons. And what we learned from the Dance implies that dragons are not going to be able to last through a succession of dragon vs. dragon battles. They are all roughly of equal size, which means that we are not likely to see them getting out of a battle unscathed/unharmed unless we see two dragonriders team up and rip a third dragon to pieces (which could very well be how Aegon meets his end if he becomes a dragonrider).

Drogon vs. Viserion/Rhaegal or Rhaegal vs. Viserion might have one dragon killing the other, but only at the price of the other dragon being severely injured or crippled. Unless a dragon attacks the other in a successful surprise attack, chances are very high that both are going to be injured severely.

In fact, a proper Second Dance of the Dragons should successfully neutralize Dany's dragons in the fight against the Others. Drogon could very well end up like Sunfyre if he has to fight repeatedly against both Viserion and/or Rhaegal.

Yes, the dragons main value in this Dance will be not that of fighting but mostly that of propaganda. But with Dany likely already having the advantage of much bigger numbers when the war starts she doesn't need any more of that bigger advantages, Aegon should also have a chance. Dragons will be one of that big advantages, and that's why I think Aegon will also have a Dragon, there must some sort of balance there. I mean if Dany comes to Westeros with three Dragons while Aegon has none or only some minor hatchlings, many of Aegon's supporters should go over to Dany pretty quickly, it simply wouldn't be a proper Dance. The scenario I would simply like the most is if the Cannibal on Aegon's side would stand against Dany's Dragons on her side, that should have the most potential. But even if Aegon only get's one of Dany's dragons their should be still some scenarios preventing that the war ends as fast as Lord Varys explained above, because it again wouldn't be a proper Dance then.

I also like the idea that the Dance has successfully neutralized off all that dragons that are big enough to fight, when the Others make their move. The world would then be much more endangered.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Check out his portrait in TWoIaF.

Checked. What can I say - Magali Villeneuve art is more impressive than Karla Ortiz's. I didn't even though, that that picture of Egg and his sons were actually official. 

Is your avatar with Varys' portrait also from "official" source? i.e. confirmed by GRRM, that the art is similar to his own idea, how those characters should look.

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Checked. What can I say - Magali Villeneuve art is more impressive than Karla Ortiz's. I didn't even though, that that picture of Egg and his sons were actually official. 

It is published in an official book which is canon. Now, not every detail in there is canon, but the artist wouldn't have drawn Prince Duncan with black hair if George thought the guy had Valyrian hair.

You can also see in that portrait that Jaehaerys II has a crippled, claw-like left hand. He is a partial monstrosity, not just 'sickly'. That fits very well with George's description of Jaehaerys II for Amok which had him conceal Jaehaerys II's left arm. I originally speculated he may have suffered severe burnings at Summerhall, but it seems the man was disfigured from birth.

That detail also indicates that George gave the artist of that portrait a pretty precise description.

5 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Is your avatar with Varys' portrait also from "official" source? i.e. confirmed by GRRM, that the art is similar to his own idea, how those characters should look.

That's the one I talked about, the one from Amok. Most of his portraits are based on descriptions by George.

[Megorova]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That's the one I talked about, the one from Amok. Most of his portraits are based on descriptions by George.

Ok, so Varys has brown eyes, or some other dark-colored eyes, hard to say. Though it doesn't mean, that he's not a Blackfyre. Varys is a mummer/actor, so it is possible that he uses color lenses, to hide his real eye color. City Myr is famous for making glass, and a very thin lace, and a glass lenses for telescopes. Thus why not to use in ASOIAF contact lenses, as one of mummer's tools? Seems kind of bothersome, but not totally impossible. Or maybe Varys is like Baelor and Duncan - not a typical Valyrian, at least not by color of his eyes.

[Brynden Blackfyre]

14 hours ago, Megorova said:

Ok, so Varys has brown eyes, or some other dark-colored eyes, hard to say. Though it doesn't mean, that he's not a Blackfyre. Varys is a mummer/actor, so it is possible that he uses color lenses, to hide his real eye color. City Myr is famous for making glass, and a very thin lace, and a glass lenses for telescopes. Thus why not to use in ASOIAF contact lenses, as one of mummer's tools? Seems kind of bothersome, but not totally impossible. Or maybe Varys is like Baelor and Duncan - not a typical Valyrian, at least not by color of his eyes.

He did travel to Myr when he was in the circus, I think. He might be familiar with it and might certainly use its lenses to disguise his true eye colour. But what is is end-game with this? I do not see a good use for hiding your eye colour.

[Lord Varys]

There is no reason to believe there are such lenses in Martinworld.

[Lost Melnibonean]

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to believe there are such lenses in Martinworld.

This. I mean really, guys... the telescope I can buy--they weren't invented until the modern area, but we can accept them in the middle ages. But contact lenses? These were only invented a little more than 100 years ago. 

[goldenmaps]

For some strange reason I think that there are more Blackfyres in the books than what is speculated with Aegon and Varys.

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 minutes ago, goldenmaps said:

For some strange reason I think that there are more Blackfyres in the books than what is speculated with Aegon and Varys.

Like Lysono Maar? 

Or maybe Daario Naharis?

[goldenmaps]

44 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Like Lysono Maar? 

Or maybe Daario Naharis?

I don't have any clue who any other Blackfyres will be one way or another.  I just think that if it is true that either Aegon or Varys are Blackfyres that there must be more out there.  Now if we have met them already in the story, I don't know.  It would be interesting if there is any Blackfyres that we have already met that has not been speculated on the threads.  I will think that will be very cool.  I also think that if Varys is a Blackfyre that he would know who the other Blackfyres are.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Like Lysono Maar? 

Or maybe Daario Naharis?

My candidates - Aurane Waters, Gerold Dayne.

Swanns are probably bloodrelated to Blackfyres, thru Johanna Swann and Jeyne Swann.

Leyton Hightower is very suspicious. I think him and his children are Blackfyre supporters. And all their relatives too - Rowans, Ambroses, Redwynes, some of Fossoways, everyone in Hightowers' extended family, except Tyrells.

Daemon's wife Rohanne had 7 children. Two of them died young. Third probably was gay. But four others, icluding Calla and Aenys, and two others - their younger brother and sister, lived long enough to have their own children. Aenys was executed when he was either 36 or 37 years old, or maybe even older. By that time he could have had 10+ children, and even a few grandchildren. So it's very unlikely, that Varys and fAegon are the only ones left.

If Aenys' line continued thru his daughters, and other Blackfyres are descendants of Calla and her sister, and line of Daemon's last son got cut off after death of last Daemon and his cousin Maelys the Monstrous, then Blackfyres' family continued only thru female line. Which doesn't mean, that there are only a few of them. There could be dozens Blackfyre descendants of Calla, her sister, and Aenys' daughters. Dozens. This isn't totally impossible.

[goldenmaps]

Just now, Megorova said:

My candidates - Aurane Waters, Gerold Dayne.

Swanns are probably bloodrelated to Blackfyres, thru Johanna Swann and Jeyne Swann.

Leyton Hightower is very suspicious. I think him and his children are Blackfyre supporters. And all their relatives too - Rowans, Ambroses, Redwynes, some of Fossoways, everyone in Hightowers' extended family, except Tyrells.

Daemon's wife Rohanne had 7 children. Two of them died young. Third probably was gay. But four others, icluding Calla and Aenys, and two others - their younger brother and sister, lived long enough to have their own children. Aenys was executed when he was either 36 or 37 years old, or maybe even older. By that time he could have had 10+ children, and even a few grandchildren. So it's very unlikely, that Varys and fAegon are the only ones left.

If Aenys' line continued thru his daughters, and other Blackfyres are descendants of Calla and her sister, and line of Daemon's last son got cut off after death of last Daemon and his cousin Maelys the Monstrous, then Blackfyres' family continued only thru female line. Which doesn't mean, that there are only a few of them. There could be dozens Blackfyre descendants of Calla, her sister, and Aenys' daughters. Dozens. This isn't totally impossible.

Interesting candidates.  it will be interesting if there is a Blackfyre that is a surprise and not the obvious candidates.  Doubt that would happen though.  Even though I do agree that the Blackfyre line did continue through the females.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, goldenmaps said:

For some strange reason I think that there are more Blackfyres in the books than what is speculated with Aegon and Varys.

The Blackfyres are all dead.

There might be a veritable army of Blackfyre descendents through the female line, though. Not just Illyrio and Aegon. I mean, if a single descendant of Daemon Blackfyre produced as many daughters as he produced sons, then half the men of the Golden Company could be Blackfyre descendants. Perhaps even Myles Toyne and Harry Strickland?

The whole talk about the contract being written in blood doesn't make that unlikely. Let's say Illyrio/Aegon are descendants of both Daemon Blackfyre and Bittersteel - why should Myles Toyne care? Just because the Golden Company always stand at attention when somebody mentions the legendary founder? Or because the captain-general (and some other officers) still have a real blood connection to the Blackfyre descendants?

Could very well be.

George deliberately chose to not make some obvious Blackfyre descendant (or a man from a known Blackfyre supporter house) the leader of the Golden Company. The Stricklands are a completely new house, and the Toynes aren't exactly known as Blackfyre partisans, either. In fact, they shouldn't be fans of any descendants of Aegon the Unworthy.

He may have done that deliberately to gradually reveal that those 'Targaryen loyalists' working with Rhaegar's buddy Jon Connington may have other motivations, too.

But as a house, the Blackfyres are dead. And just like nobody runs around in the Vale crying 'A potential Lord of Winterfell! Hail Lord Stark!' whenever a Corbray or a Waynwood makes an appearance, nobody should care that there are guys who are descended through some women from the famous Daemon Blackfyre.

[goldenmaps]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Blackfyres are all dead.

There might be a veritable army of Blackfyre descended through the female line, though. Not just Illyrio and Aegon. I mean, if single descendant of Daemon Blackfyre produced as many daughters as he produced sons, then half the men of the Golden Company could be Blackfyre descendants. Perhaps even Myles Toyne and Harry Strickland?

The whole talk about the contract being written in blood doesn't make that unlikely. Let's say Illyrio/Aegon are descendants of both Daemon Blackfyre and Bittersteel - why should Myles Toyne care? Just because the Golden Company always stand at attention when somebody mentions the legendary founder? Or because the captain-general (and some other officers) still have a real blood connection to the Blackfyre descendants?

Could very well be.

George deliberately chose to not make some obvious Blackfyre descendant (or a man from a known Blackfyre supporter house) the leader of the Golden Company. The Stricklands are a completely new house, and the Toynes aren't exactly known as Blackfyre partisans, either. In fact, they shouldn't be fans of any descendants of Aegon the Unworthy.

He may have done that deliberately to gradually reveal that those 'Targaryen loyalists' working with Rhaegar's buddy Jon Connington may have other motivations, too.

But as a house, the Blackfyres are dead. And just like nobody runs around in the Vale crying 'A potential Lord of Winterfell! Hail Lord Stark!' whenever a Corbray or a Waynwood makes an appearance, nobody should care that there are guys who are descended through some women from the famous Daemon Blackfyre.

I agree with you.  As a House, the Blackfyres are dead.  There might be some descended from the female line.

[Der Karrenkönig]

On ‎13‎.‎04‎.‎2018 at 11:51 PM, Lord Varys said:

There might be a veritable army of Blackfyre descendents through the female line, though.

And through bastard lines, we shouldn't forget that

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Petyr Baelish is the only Blackfyre . ARE YOU SICK YET !

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, Der Karrenkönig said:

And through bastard lines, we shouldn't forget that

Those might figure into the whole thing as well. In fact, perhaps even more prominently, considering that the Blackfyres would have traveled many cities with the Golden Company, hanging out with many whores and camp followers. There could have been a considerable number of illegitimate children, and the sons of those camp followers staying with the company could have ended up filling the ranks of the company later in life.

[Rufus Snow]

Do we actually have any other evidence beyond the dubious word of the dead sea cow that all the male Blackfyres are dead? As things stand, who would benefit most from the tale that all male Blackfyres are dead, than living male Blackfyres who are not in a position to act? After all, even JonCon managed to play quite an important role even when he was 'dead', too...

[Brynden Blackfyre]

On 4/3/2018 at 5:13 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

The spider has a drop of dragonblood, be it red, black or brown. 

Brown?