Free folk Daemon

Is Varys a Blackfyre?

163 posts in this topic

@Lord Varys@Bloodraven's Spider, @Lady Blizzardborn

It's very unlikely, that Tattered Prince is Aerion's son Maegor. Though there are clues, that Tatters could be Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf.

Detailed overview is under spoiler, short resume of it is below spoiler.

Spoiler

Probably Rodrik is still alive, and this was him:

Quote

Inside the tent the shapes were dancing, circling the brazier and the bloody bath, dark against the sandsilk, and some did not look human. She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames.

Same as Tattered Prince, Rodrik served with Second Sons:

Quote

You will find famous names in here, some from your Seven Kingdoms. Aegor Rivers served a year with us, before he left to found the Golden Company. Bittersteel, you call him. The Bright Prince, Aerion Targaryen, he was a Second Son. And Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf, him as well.

Tattered Prince was born in 238 or 239 AC (he was 23 in 262).

This

Quote

Even the commander of the Windblown kept his true name to himself. Some free companies had been born during the century of blood and chaos that had followed the Doom of Valyria. Others had been formed yesterday and would be gone upon the morrow. The Windblown went back thirty years, and had known but one commander, the soft-spoken, sad-eyed Pentoshi nobleman called the Tattered Prince. His hair and mail were silver-grey, but his ragged cloak was made of twists of cloth of many colors, blue and grey and purple, red and gold and green, magenta and vermilion and cerulean, all faded by the sun. When the Tattered Prince was three-and-twenty, as Dick Straw told the story, the magisters of Pentos had chosen him to be their new prince, hours after beheading their old prince. Instead he’d buckled on a sword, mounted his favorite horse, and fled to the Disputed Lands, never to return. He had ridden with the Second Sons, the Iron Shields, and the Maiden’s Men, then joined with five brothers-in-arms to form the Windblown. Of those six founders, only he survived.

Frog had no notion whether any of that was true.

doesn't actually mean, that Tattered Prince was born in Pentos.

We don't know age of Rodrik Stark, though it's possible to approximately calculate his age, based on to which generation he belonged, and known age of his relatives.

He was grandfather of Lyanna Stark, and father of Lyarra Stark. Lyarra's husband Rickard Stark was born in 230-249 (their first child Brandon was born in 262). Rodrik was seventh child, and fifth son of Beron Stark and Lorra Royce. He could have been 30 years younger than Beron's oldest child Donnor, or their second son Willam (grandfather of Rickard Stark). For example Rohanne Webber first time gave birth, when she was 13 years old, and last time when she was 44. If her first child would have survived, then the age difference between her oldest and her youngest children would have been 31 year. So maybe by the time, when Lorra Royce gave birth to her youngest son Rodrik, her second son Willam was already married for a long time, and his own son Edwyle (Rickard's father) was already a teenager (or older), close to getting married to Marna Locke (or already married, and they already had children). So age of Rodrik Stark is close to age of Edwyle's and Marna's son Rickard Stark, that was born sometime between 230 and 249. And Tattered Prince was born in 238 or 239, in that time frame.

If Tatters/Rodrik was born in 238 or 239, and his first grandson Brandon was born in 262, when he was 23 or 24 years old, then how old was his daughter Lyarra, when she gave birth to Brandon? Seems that she was VERY young, and he was also very young, when he married. Though this scenario is still possible. For example, he married when he was 12, in 250, and his daughter Lyarra was born in the same year. So in 262, when Lyarra gave birth to Brandon, she also was 12 years old.

At age 12 married - Viserys II, Sansa Stark.

Rohanne Webber became a widow, when she was only 10 years old, her husband was 12. She got married second time, and then gave birth to her first child, when she was 13.

It isn't known how old was Jeyne Poole, fake Arya Stark, when she got married with Ramsay Bolton, and was raped by him. Though, if she's posing as Arya, then she's probably close to age of real Arya, and that's 11.

Egg's sister Rhae slipped a love potion into his drink, so that he would marry her. Egg just falling in love with Rhae, wouldn't have made them to marry. Also it's unlikely, that love potion makes someone to actually fall in love, more like it's some sort of potency drug, that helps to seduce intended victim. Egg would have had to marry Rhae, only if he would have taken her virginity. He was born in 200, Tournament at Ashford Meadow happened in 209. And that story happened prior Egg and Dunk met, so at that time he was not older than 9. And Rhae was either 8, or 9 (if she was Egg's twin).

Youngest couple of parents in the real world are 12 years old boy, and his 10 years old girlfriend. Youngest mother in the world is a 5 years old girl. Youngest father in the world is 11 years old boy. Which means, that when his child was consumated, he was 10 years old. There was also a 13 y.o. father, and 8 y.o. mother, she reached puberty when she was 7 years old.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_youngest_birth_fathers

So it's possible that both Rodrik Stark and his daughter Lyarra, both married and became parents, when they were 12 years old.

Even in our world, in Middle Ages, 12 was an acceptable age for marriage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriageable_age

So based on his age, Tattered Prince could be Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf. Could be that he married, when he was very young. Same year were born his two daughters, Branda and Lyarra (or Branda was born later). And then, some time after that, he has left his family (because he was fifth son, so no one expected anything from him), and went to Essos, where he settled in Pentos. So by 262, when he was chosen to become a new prince, by that time he has already spent in Pentos many years. Could even be as many as 12, if he left Westeros after consumating his marriage in 250 AC, and his twin daughters were born, when he was already away in Essos.

Aside from Tatters' suitable age, to be Rodrik Stark, there are other things about him, that support possibility of him being Wandering Wolf.

His colors - silver-greyed mail, grey warhorse. Grey is traditional color of House Stark. Windblown's banners are blue-and-white - like blue winter roses of Winterfell, and white snow. The Windblown command tent is a great grey sailcloth pavilion, which the Tattered Prince calls his canvas castle. Are there castles in Essos? :huh: This little hint, betray, that actually he's a person from Westeros. Also this - The Windblown are comprised out of two thousand men in total, both infantry and cavalry.[1] According to Dick Straw, there are three score Westerosi in the company.[2]

And name of his company is also very telling - Windblown / Wandering Wolf / prodigal son / tumbleweed.

Tumbleweed - a plant of dry regions, that breaks off near the ground in late summer, and is tumbled about by the wind.

Tumbleweed is windblown. Rodrik Stark the Wandering Wolf is a prodigal son. He left his family and homeland long ago, and was wandering thru distant lands, with various sellswords companies, without settling down. So he was like tumbleweed, going to wherever the wind brought him. So he named his sellswords company the Windblown.

Another clue is his ongoing enmity against Bloodbeard, commander of the Company of the Cat. Probably this Bloodbeard is a descendant of King-beyond-The-Wall Raymun Redbeard, or his brother Red Raven, and relative of wildling Gerrick Kingsblood, founder of House Redbeard. Bloodbeard and Gerrick even look alike, both are tall, big, with long red hair, and red beard.

So could be that Tatters and Bloodbeard are enemies, because one of them is a Stark, and the other is a wildling.

Also this - "Tattered Prince takes a dim view of deserters. He’ll send hunters after us", same as Starks are punishing deserters from Night's Watch.

So clues, that hint, that the Tattered Prince could be Rodrik Stark the Wandering Wolf, are:

  1. his age;
  2. used by him colors - grey (Starks color), blue and white - winter roses and snow;
  3. name that he has chosen for his company - Windblown;
  4. enmity between him and Bloodbeard, who could be a wildling;
  5. his opinion about deserters;
  6. tree scores of his people are from Westeros, same as Pretty Meris;
  7. he calls his grey sailcloth pavilion his canvas castle.

And what clues are there, that hint to him being Maegor Targaryen, son of Aerion Brightflame? Even age is wrong - Maegor was born in 232, and Tatters in 238 or 239, so Maegor is 6-7 years too old to be Tatters.

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24 minutes ago, Megorova said:

@Lord Varys@Bloodraven's Spider, @Lady Blizzardborn

It's very unlikely, that Tattered Prince is Aerion's son Maegor. Though there are clues, that Tatters could be Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf.

Detailed overview is under spoiler, short resume of it is below spoiler.

  Reveal hidden contents

Probably Rodrik is still alive, and this was him:

Same as Tattered Prince, Rodrik served with Second Sons:

Tattered Prince was born in 238 or 239 AC (he was 23 in 262).

This

doesn't actually mean, that Tattered Prince was born in Pentos.

We don't know age of Rodrik Stark, though it's possible to approximately calculate his age, based on to which generation he belonged, and known age of his relatives.

He was grandfather of Lyanna Stark, and father of Lyarra Stark. Lyarra's husband Rickard Stark was born in 230-249 (their first child Brandon was born in 262). Rodrik was seventh child, and fifth son of Beron Stark and Lorra Royce. He could have been 30 years younger than Beron's oldest child Donnor, or their second son Willam (grandfather of Rickard Stark). For example Rohanne Webber first time gave birth, when she was 13 years old, and last time when she was 44. If her first child would have survived, then the age difference between her oldest and her youngest children would have been 31 year. So maybe by the time, when Lorra Royce gave birth to her youngest son Rodrik, her second son Willam was already married for a long time, and his own son Edwyle (Rickard's father) was already a teenager (or older), close to getting married to Marna Locke (or already married, and they already had children). So age of Rodrik Stark is close to age of Edwyle's and Marna's son Rickard Stark, that was born sometime between 230 and 249. And Tattered Prince was born in 238 or 239, in that time frame.

If Tatters/Rodrik was born in 238 or 239, and his first grandson Brandon was born in 262, when he was 23 or 24 years old, then how old was his daughter Lyarra, when she gave birth to Brandon? Seems that she was VERY young, and he was also very young, when he married. Though this scenario is still possible. For example, he married when he was 12, in 250, and his daughter Lyarra was born in the same year. So in 262, when Lyarra gave birth to Brandon, she also was 12 years old.

At age 12 married - Viserys II, Sansa Stark.

Rohanne Webber became a widow, when she was only 10 years old, her husband was 12. She got married second time, and then gave birth to her first child, when she was 13.

It isn't known how old was Jeyne Poole, fake Arya Stark, when she got married with Ramsay Bolton, and was raped by him. Though, if she's posing as Arya, then she's probably close to age of real Arya, and that's 11.

Egg's sister Rhae slipped a love potion into his drink, so that he would marry her. Egg just falling in love with Rhae, wouldn't have made them to marry. Also it's unlikely, that love potion makes someone to actually fall in love, more like it's some sort of potency drug, that helps to seduce intended victim. Egg would have had to marry Rhae, only if he would have taken her virginity. He was born in 200, Tournament at Ashford Meadow happened in 209. And that story happened prior Egg and Dunk met, so at that time he was not older than 9. And Rhae was either 8, or 9 (if she was Egg's twin).

Youngest couple of parents in the real world are 12 years old boy, and his 10 years old girlfriend. Youngest mother in the world is a 5 years old girl. Youngest father in the world is 11 years old boy. Which means, that when his child was consumated, he was 10 years old. There was also a 13 y.o. father, and 8 y.o. mother, she reached puberty when she was 7 years old.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_youngest_birth_fathers

So it's possible that both Rodrik Stark and his daughter Lyarra, both married and became parents, when they were 12 years old.

Even in our world, in Middle Ages, 12 was an acceptable age for marriage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriageable_age

So based on his age, Tattered Prince could be Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf. Could be that he married, when he was very young. Same year were born his two daughters, Branda and Lyarra (or Branda was born later). And then, some time after that, he has left his family (because he was fifth son, so no one expected anything from him), and went to Essos, where he settled in Pentos. So by 262, when he was chosen to become a new prince, by that time he has already spent in Pentos many years. Could even be as many as 12, if he left Westeros after consumating his marriage in 250 AC, and his twin daughters were born, when he was already away in Essos.

Aside from Tatters' suitable age, to be Rodrik Stark, there are other things about him, that support possibility of him being Wandering Wolf.

His colors - silver-greyed mail, grey warhorse. Grey is traditional color of House Stark. Windblown's banners are blue-and-white - like blue winter roses of Winterfell, and white snow. The Windblown command tent is a great grey sailcloth pavilion, which the Tattered Prince calls his canvas castle. Are there castles in Essos? :huh: This little hint, betray, that actually he's a person from Westeros. Also this - The Windblown are comprised out of two thousand men in total, both infantry and cavalry.[1] According to Dick Straw, there are three score Westerosi in the company.[2]

And name of his company is also very telling - Windblown / Wandering Wolf / prodigal son / tumbleweed.

Tumbleweed - a plant of dry regions, that breaks off near the ground in late summer, and is tumbled about by the wind.

Tumbleweed is windblown. Rodrik Stark the Wandering Wolf is a prodigal son. He left his family and homeland long ago, and was wandering thru distant lands, with various sellswords companies, without settling down. So he was like tumbleweed, going to wherever the wind brought him. So he named his sellswords company the Windblown.

Another clue is his ongoing enmity against Bloodbeard, commander of the Company of the Cat. Probably this Bloodbeard is a descendant of King-beyond-The-Wall Raymun Redbeard, or his brother Red Raven, and relative of wildling Gerrick Kingsblood, founder of House Redbeard. Bloodbeard and Gerrick even look alike, both are tall, big, with long red hair, and red beard.

So could be that Tatters and Bloodbeard are enemies, because one of them is a Stark, and the other is a wildling.

Also this - "Tattered Prince takes a dim view of deserters. He’ll send hunters after us", same as Starks are punishing deserters from Night's Watch.

So clues, that hint, that the Tattered Prince could be Rodrik Stark the Wandering Wolf, are:

  1. his age;
  2. used by him colors - grey (Starks color), blue and white - winter roses and snow;
  3. name that he has chosen for his company - Windblown;
  4. enmity between him and Bloodbeard, who could be a wildling;
  5. his opinion about deserters;
  6. tree scores of his people are from Westeros, same as Pretty Meris;
  7. he calls his grey sailcloth pavilion his canvas castle.

And what clues are there, that hint to him being Maegor Targaryen, son of Aerion Brightflame? Even age is wrong - Maegor was born in 232, and Tatters in 238 or 239, so Maegor is 6-7 years too old to be Tatters.

:fetchespopcorn:

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@Megorova

I agree that the timeline does not fit for Maegor being the Tattered Prince, but neither does it for Rodrik. His father was Beron Stark who died around 215 AC.

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36 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

:fetchespopcorn:

...I’ll fetch some sody pop...

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Sounds like something I could come up with if I was drunk (and drinking). Or perhaps taking acid.

My idea is that Princess Daenora may have remarried after Aerion's death, which could, in a fashion, have made Prince Maegor a Pentoshi nobleman if his stepfather adopted him.

But I really don't buy that idea. It just sounds interesting. The age is not that much of a problem, though, considering that we don't necessarily have very good information on that.

Thinking about the whole thing - guys, what if the Tattered Prince is actually Illyrio's father, a grandson of Bittersteel (through a daughter he had by Calla Blackfyre), whose exile from Pentos triggered Illyrio Mopatis' fall from grace?

Maelys Blackfyre's end (and Tatters' support of the Ninepenny Kings) could have caused this, and the idea that Varys/Illyrio were responsible for Tatters' exile makes no sense with the date of 262 AC in mind. They would have to be at least around twenty to pull something like that off, but neither Varys nor Illyrio is around sixty (or in the late fifties) in 300 AC.

That way Tatters' interest in Daenerys Targaryen could be much more complex, as would his interest in Pentos. And, of course, he could know much and more about the dealings and plans of his son and his eunuch partner...

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Just now, Lord Varys said:

Sounds like something I could come up with if I was drunk (and drinking). Or perhaps taking acid.

My idea is that Princess Daenora may have remarried after Aerion's death, which could, in a fashion, have made Prince Maegor a Pentoshi nobleman if his stepfather adopted him.

But I really don't buy that idea. It just sounds interesting. The age is not that much of a problem, though, considering that we don't necessarily have very good information on that.

Thinking about the whole thing - guys, what if the Tattered Prince is actually Illyrio's father, a grandson of Bittersteel (through a daughter he had by Calla Blackfyre), whose exile from Pentos triggered Illyrio Mopatis' fall from grace?

Maelys Blackfyre's end (and Tatters' support of the Ninepenny Kings) could have caused this, and the idea that Varys/Illyrio were responsible for Tatters' exile makes no sense with the date of 262 AC in mind. They would have to be at least around twenty to pull something like that off, but neither Varys nor Illyrio is around sixty (or in the late fifties) in 300 AC.

That way Tatters' interest in Daenerys Targaryen could be much more complex, as would his interest in Pentos. And, of course, he could know much and more about the dealings and plans of his son and his eunuch partner...

I laughed so hard I spilled a little of my popcorn and the Dr. Pepper @The Fattest Leechwas kind enough to share. 

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9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I laughed so hard I spilled a little of my popcorn and the Dr. Pepper @The Fattest Leechwas kind enough to share. 

I'd prefer it, if you actually commented on the idea... What do you think about the Tattered Prince possibly being Illyrio's father?

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34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd prefer it, if you actually commented on the idea... What do you think about the Tattered Prince possibly being Illyrio's father?

I think I have seen the idea, and/or a  possible relation to Varys before. Such a relationship seems pretty speculative at this point. 

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47 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

@Megorova

I agree that the timeline does not fit for Maegor being the Tattered Prince, but neither does it for Rodrik. His father was Beron Stark who died around 215 AC.

Though it isn't known when exactly did Beron died. Maybe he was wounded in a battle against Ironborn. But when exactly did that battle happened? His preparations for that battle were mentioned in The Mystery Knight novel, in 211 AC. Doesn't mean, that the battle actually happened around that time.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Beron_Stark

There are six sources, in which Beron was mentioned:

1. ACOK, Bran VII:

Quote

When the shadows moved, it looked for an instant as if the dead were rising as well. Lyanna and Brandon, Lord Rickard Stark their father, Lord Edwyle his father, Lord Willam and his brother Artos the Implacable, Lord Donnor and Lord Beron and Lord Rodwell, one-eyed Lord Jonnel, Lord Barth and Lord Brandon and Lord Cregan who had fought the Dragonknight.

2. The Mystery Knight:

Quote

Egg and I have a long journey before us. We're headed north to Winterfell. Lord Beron Stark is gathering swords to drive the krakens from his shores for good.

3. ADWD, The Turncloak:

Quote

Lord Beron Stark, who made common cause with Casterly Rock to war against Dagon Greyjoy, Lord of Pyke, in the days when the Seven Kingdoms were ruled in all but name by the bastard sorcerer men called Bloodraven.

4. http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1408/

Quote

GRRM did mention at last nights meal that he had been working on D&E Part 3 but wrapping it up wasn't as easy as he hoped. But he is close. Originally it took place right after tSS but now he has decided to give it a 1.5 year gap but that means another round of mods to ensure the timeline works. (A 1.5 year gap makes sense to me if he wants to continue to progress Egg's story up to and beyond him taking the crown). He also reminded me of the state of the Starks 100 years ago...

SPOILER: Starks 100 years ago
I was suggesting it would be nice to see the Starks in power, without the current disarray. But GRRM pointed out that things were not so good 90 years either, with a lot of Stark widows struggling for power, with the current lord dieing from a wound taken against some Ironborn. Although I could have the reason for his wound up. I'm reading the RPG game book at the moment and I might be mixing things together. There is a lot of Stark kids around though, so ending the line wasn't a problem. I think he said 10 children, from various Starks members.

Oh, and I don't know whether the Starks are actually going to feature in the next book. It does seem like he has an idea about a Stark story though.

Anyone remember what he called the Stark widows btw? Wolf crones or something?

5. http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1409/

Quote

He mentioned something about five Lady Starks running Winterfell -- the Wolf Women or something like that -- with four of them widows of a bunch of fairly recent former Lord Starks, and the current Lady Stark, whose 30-something husband is fading fast from a wound taken from fighting the Ironborn.

6. Stark family tree in the World book. Without years.

Some of this information seems unreliable, especially 4 & 5.

"He was mortally wounded in the ensuing clash, and House Stark faced a crisis of succession as his wife and four other recent Stark widows made claim for their own children.[4][5]" - This is NOT what was written in that entry in The Citadel.

Furthermore, that person - Padraig, posting that info from Boskone of 2006, where he/she wrote that GRRM mentioned this and that, and also admitting that he/she could be confusing, what was actually said then, with some RPG book, that he/she is currently reading :rolleyes: And what is written in second post - "husband is fading fast from a wound taken from fighting the Ironborn", not only doesn't mean that he actually died, but also DOESN'T MEAN THAT GRRM WON'T WRITE A TOTALLY DIFFERENT STORY IN AN ACTUAL BOOK, in the She-Wolfes of Winterfell.

So maybe Beron didn't died then. Could be that he was seriously wounded, nearly died, became crippled, and gave up his place as Lord of Winterfell to his son Donnor.

Victarion Greyjoy said - "So forth from Pyke Lord Dagon sailed, to make the Sunset Sea his own. He bearded the lion in his den and tied the direwolf's tail in knots" - maybe he cut off Beron's legs, or slashed at his leg/legs with a sword, and Beron had gangrena, after which maesters had to amputate his legs, or one leg - tail tied in knots.

It wasn't confirmed ANYWHERE, that Beron died after his encounter with Ironborn.

So could be that Donnor, and after him his brother Willam, became Lord of Winterfell, even though their father was still alive at that time, unable to rule, or lead his people into battle, but not unable to father more children.

So we'll have to wait, either for the novel She-Wolfes of Winterfell, or until GRRM will reveal more information about Tatters in TWOW.

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I think Varys might be descended from the Blackfyres.  But I also think that Aegon might NOT be descended from the Blackfyres or the Targareyens.  Aegon is just a person who has silver blond hair with no royal blood in his veins. 

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18 minutes ago, goldenmaps said:

I think Varys might be descended from the Blackfyres.  But I also think that Aegon might NOT be descended from the Blackfyres or the Targareyens.  Aegon is just a person who has silver blond hair with no royal blood in his veins. 

If Aegon is not a Blackfyre, what's the point of the the Blackfyre backstory? 

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Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Aegon is not a Blackfyre, what's the point of the the Blackfyre backstory? 

The Blackfyre backstory could be about what happens if you legitimize bastards or the consequences that happens from legitimizing bastards.  Or there could be a reason we don't know yet. 

In history whenever there was a pretender to the throne, the pretender was usually just an ordinary person with no royal blood in their veins. 

Or i could be totally wrong and Aegon is a Blackfyre. I just thought that it would be more interesting that Aegon who looks like a Targareyen is just a regular person.

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29 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Aegon is not a Blackfyre, what's the point of the the Blackfyre backstory? 

The Blackfyres get exactly 12 mentions in the ~5000 pages written to date in ASOIAF.

· ASOS—4

· AFFC—1

· ADWD—7

For those who follow the histories and stories closely, this doesn’t matter. For those who only read ASOIAF proper and bypass the other books, making the Blackfyres a big part of the future story could be very jarring.

Most of the people who will buy TWOW and ADOS will be causal readers who struggle to keep track of the books like they struggle to keep track of the show. I’ve heard some crazy stuff from show-only watchers because they’re confused by all of the characters. They don’t hang out in the echo chamber of the Forums and went from ASOS (published 2000) to ADWD (published 2011) with only a single mention of the Blackfyres.

But GRRM gardens a lot, so I can maybe see him writing TWOIAF and the histories to ease making the Blackfyres more relevant to future books. Maybe he’s writing TWOW and ADOS expecting casual readers to have taken in the extra stuff. Maybe they’ll use season 8 to ease in the casual reader. Maybe GRRM doesn’t really care if the causal reader/only ASOIAF Proper reader can follow along.

I don’t know.

 

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12 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

The Blackfyres get exactly 12 mentions in the ~5000 pages written to date in ASOIAF.

· ASOS—4

· AFFC—1

· ADWD—7

For those who follow the histories and stories closely, this doesn’t matter. For those who only read ASOIAF proper and bypass the other books, making the Blackfyres a big part of the future story could be very jarring.

Most of the people who will buy TWOW and ADOS will be causal readers who struggle to keep track of the books like they struggle to keep track of the show. I’ve heard some crazy stuff from show-only watchers because they’re confused by all of the characters. They don’t hang out in the echo chamber of the Forums and went from ASOS (published 2000) to ADWD (published 2011) with only a single mention of the Blackfyres.

But GRRM gardens a lot, so I can maybe see him writing TWOIAF and the histories to ease making the Blackfyres more relevant to future books. Maybe he’s writing TWOW and ADOS expecting casual readers to have taken in the extra stuff. Maybe they’ll use season 8 to ease in the casual reader. Maybe GRRM doesn’t really care if the causal reader/only ASOIAF Proper reader can follow along.

I don’t know.

I think there is A LOT more to it than that. 

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Posted (edited)

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

@Lord Varys@Bloodraven's Spider, @Lady Blizzardborn

It's very unlikely, that Tattered Prince is Aerion's son Maegor. Though there are clues, that Tatters could be Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf.

Detailed overview is under spoiler, short resume of it is below spoiler.

  Reveal hidden contents

Probably Rodrik is still alive, and this was him:

Same as Tattered Prince, Rodrik served with Second Sons:

Tattered Prince was born in 238 or 239 AC (he was 23 in 262).

This

doesn't actually mean, that Tattered Prince was born in Pentos.

We don't know age of Rodrik Stark, though it's possible to approximately calculate his age, based on to which generation he belonged, and known age of his relatives.

He was grandfather of Lyanna Stark, and father of Lyarra Stark. Lyarra's husband Rickard Stark was born in 230-249 (their first child Brandon was born in 262). Rodrik was seventh child, and fifth son of Beron Stark and Lorra Royce. He could have been 30 years younger than Beron's oldest child Donnor, or their second son Willam (grandfather of Rickard Stark). For example Rohanne Webber first time gave birth, when she was 13 years old, and last time when she was 44. If her first child would have survived, then the age difference between her oldest and her youngest children would have been 31 year. So maybe by the time, when Lorra Royce gave birth to her youngest son Rodrik, her second son Willam was already married for a long time, and his own son Edwyle (Rickard's father) was already a teenager (or older), close to getting married to Marna Locke (or already married, and they already had children). So age of Rodrik Stark is close to age of Edwyle's and Marna's son Rickard Stark, that was born sometime between 230 and 249. And Tattered Prince was born in 238 or 239, in that time frame.

If Tatters/Rodrik was born in 238 or 239, and his first grandson Brandon was born in 262, when he was 23 or 24 years old, then how old was his daughter Lyarra, when she gave birth to Brandon? Seems that she was VERY young, and he was also very young, when he married. Though this scenario is still possible. For example, he married when he was 12, in 250, and his daughter Lyarra was born in the same year. So in 262, when Lyarra gave birth to Brandon, she also was 12 years old.

At age 12 married - Viserys II, Sansa Stark.

Rohanne Webber became a widow, when she was only 10 years old, her husband was 12. She got married second time, and then gave birth to her first child, when she was 13.

It isn't known how old was Jeyne Poole, fake Arya Stark, when she got married with Ramsay Bolton, and was raped by him. Though, if she's posing as Arya, then she's probably close to age of real Arya, and that's 11.

Egg's sister Rhae slipped a love potion into his drink, so that he would marry her. Egg just falling in love with Rhae, wouldn't have made them to marry. Also it's unlikely, that love potion makes someone to actually fall in love, more like it's some sort of potency drug, that helps to seduce intended victim. Egg would have had to marry Rhae, only if he would have taken her virginity. He was born in 200, Tournament at Ashford Meadow happened in 209. And that story happened prior Egg and Dunk met, so at that time he was not older than 9. And Rhae was either 8, or 9 (if she was Egg's twin).

Youngest couple of parents in the real world are 12 years old boy, and his 10 years old girlfriend. Youngest mother in the world is a 5 years old girl. Youngest father in the world is 11 years old boy. Which means, that when his child was consumated, he was 10 years old. There was also a 13 y.o. father, and 8 y.o. mother, she reached puberty when she was 7 years old.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_youngest_birth_fathers

So it's possible that both Rodrik Stark and his daughter Lyarra, both married and became parents, when they were 12 years old.

Even in our world, in Middle Ages, 12 was an acceptable age for marriage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriageable_age

So based on his age, Tattered Prince could be Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf. Could be that he married, when he was very young. Same year were born his two daughters, Branda and Lyarra (or Branda was born later). And then, some time after that, he has left his family (because he was fifth son, so no one expected anything from him), and went to Essos, where he settled in Pentos. So by 262, when he was chosen to become a new prince, by that time he has already spent in Pentos many years. Could even be as many as 12, if he left Westeros after consumating his marriage in 250 AC, and his twin daughters were born, when he was already away in Essos.

Aside from Tatters' suitable age, to be Rodrik Stark, there are other things about him, that support possibility of him being Wandering Wolf.

His colors - silver-greyed mail, grey warhorse. Grey is traditional color of House Stark. Windblown's banners are blue-and-white - like blue winter roses of Winterfell, and white snow. The Windblown command tent is a great grey sailcloth pavilion, which the Tattered Prince calls his canvas castle. Are there castles in Essos? :huh: This little hint, betray, that actually he's a person from Westeros. Also this - The Windblown are comprised out of two thousand men in total, both infantry and cavalry.[1] According to Dick Straw, there are three score Westerosi in the company.[2]

And name of his company is also very telling - Windblown / Wandering Wolf / prodigal son / tumbleweed.

Tumbleweed - a plant of dry regions, that breaks off near the ground in late summer, and is tumbled about by the wind.

Tumbleweed is windblown. Rodrik Stark the Wandering Wolf is a prodigal son. He left his family and homeland long ago, and was wandering thru distant lands, with various sellswords companies, without settling down. So he was like tumbleweed, going to wherever the wind brought him. So he named his sellswords company the Windblown.

Another clue is his ongoing enmity against Bloodbeard, commander of the Company of the Cat. Probably this Bloodbeard is a descendant of King-beyond-The-Wall Raymun Redbeard, or his brother Red Raven, and relative of wildling Gerrick Kingsblood, founder of House Redbeard. Bloodbeard and Gerrick even look alike, both are tall, big, with long red hair, and red beard.

So could be that Tatters and Bloodbeard are enemies, because one of them is a Stark, and the other is a wildling.

Also this - "Tattered Prince takes a dim view of deserters. He’ll send hunters after us", same as Starks are punishing deserters from Night's Watch.

So clues, that hint, that the Tattered Prince could be Rodrik Stark the Wandering Wolf, are:

  1. his age;
  2. used by him colors - grey (Starks color), blue and white - winter roses and snow;
  3. name that he has chosen for his company - Windblown;
  4. enmity between him and Bloodbeard, who could be a wildling;
  5. his opinion about deserters;
  6. tree scores of his people are from Westeros, same as Pretty Meris;
  7. he calls his grey sailcloth pavilion his canvas castle.

And what clues are there, that hint to him being Maegor Targaryen, son of Aerion Brightflame? Even age is wrong - Maegor was born in 232, and Tatters in 238 or 239, so Maegor is 6-7 years too old to be Tatters.

I didn't say anything in this thread about Tatters being little Maegor.

Presumably Rodrik's adventuring days in Essos were prior to his marrying and having children. Why would he go back to Essos later? You're talking about Ned's grandfather. Chances are if he were still alive he'd be older than Tatters is. It doesn't much matter if 12 year old are considered marriageable in general, in practice most Westerosi girls don't get married until they're older.

Tatters also speaks High Valyrian, which almost no one does. It's very likely he learned it because it was passed down through his family. It's far more likely that Tatters is a remnant of the Company of the Rose.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Aegon is not a Blackfyre, what's the point of the the Blackfyre backstory? 

You know my answer to that. :D

Edited by Lady Blizzardborn

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sounds like something I could come up with if I was drunk (and drinking). Or perhaps taking acid.

I agree with LM, that was really fucking funny coming from you.  Just so out of character.

As for Tatters being Illyrio's dad?  Meh.  It's like, hey we have two notable characters from Pentos -- and get this, they're father and son!  Seems kinda lame.  However, it is interesting that Tatters being chosen Prince happened shortly after the Ninepenny Kings war.  Never thought about that before.  Hm..

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8 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

You know my answer to that. :D

Yes, I do. I don't buy it, but it's well thought out. 

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think there is A LOT more to it than that. 

I reread all 12 of the Blackfyre references in the main books. I couldn't follow a lot of your thread as it delved outside of the main 5.

I don’t really have a problem with the lack of development earlier in the story. GRRM wanders and I’m ok with that. A number of the Blackfyre references in the main books serve as precedent for current plot lines and feed into current character motivation. Unlike Old Nan’s stories, the recollection of various points of Robert’s Rebellion, and other past recounts, they seem pale, insubstantial, and unmemorable references in passing. It especially feeds into the setups for the succession clusterf**** so beloved by GRRM, and I think that’s the purpose to the main books.

I’m not saying the Blackfyres won’t serve a purpose in the future books, but unless GRRM is betting on readers knowing stuff outside of the five main books, I’m doubtful of the size and prominence of their role in the future.

Aegon, Varys or others may be a Blackfyre, I don’t know, but I don’t think all of the Blackfyre stuff outside of ASOIAF proper requires it. At this point, I think their purpose is to feed the succession clusterf**** in the main story, not to be a big story in themselves.

 

Edited by Lollygag

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Posted (edited)

@Megorova

Beron's second successor Willam died in 226 AC, so even if Beron did not die during the reign of Aerys I, he would not live long enough to father a son in the 230ies.

The theory that he abdicated as lord in 215 AC, but was able to father Rodrik more then twenty years later, does not make any sense to me. 

Edited by The Wondering Wolf

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@Lollygag

It isn't about the Blackfyres. The Blackfyres are dead and irrelevant. It is about the whole 'fake prince' idea. The Blackfyres are used as a background to give Varys/Illyrio motivation for their actions and to provide Aegon with an alternative ancestry.

As a concept, they likely grew out of Dunk & Egg when George decided to write more stories about this period. That way he could connect those two time periods as he already did with Bloodraven and Walder Frey in TMK.

Before that, Varys/Illyrio and Aegon would likely have had some other Targaryen connections, possibly through some younger or older son or some bastard who thought he should be king instead of Maekar, Aegon V, or Jaehaerys II (hence the old ideas about Aerion's son Maegor, Aerion's hypothetical bastards, Egg's mysterious third son, etc. having a connection to Varys/Illyrio).

Such a connection is necessary, I think, because Varys and Illyrio need to have a motivation as to why they concern themselves with Westeros and the Iron Throne at all. The idea that they are just 'scrupulous people' who prop up a fake pretender who is nothing but a whore's son doesn't chime well with their overall motivations or back story. They are already rich and influential as hell. They don't need the Iron Throne to prosper. In fact, if they wanted to control the Iron Throne after Aegon's ascension Illyrio would most likely have to focus even more on Westeros than he does today - his business and enterprises in Essos would inevitably suffer. And the man really doesn't look as if he is looking forward to actually work in KL, alongside savage morons who actually think they have anything in common with the heraldic animals on their clothes.

The Blackfyres provide a back story. But they are nothing more than a back story. We can expect some lengthy paragraphs on Varys and Illyrio's (and Aegon's actual) parentage somewhere down the line, and perhaps even more stuff on the War of the Ninepenny Kings, Maelys Blackfyre, and his family (which may or may not be connected to Varys/Illyrio) but we won't get any deep details on the earlier Blackfyres or their rebellions - aside from the fact that they were all failures and that Varys/Illyrio's ancestors were pissed about that.

In a sense, you can replace 'Blackfyres' there with 'other Targaryens' or 'Targaryen bastards who thought they should be king'. That's pretty much what they are. And the animosity/hatred some of the Golden Company veterans might still feel for certain stalwart Targaryen loyalists (Barristan Selmy, say) might also become relevant when the stage for the Second Dance is set. Varys/Illyrio wanted to reunite the branches again through Aegon and Daenerys, but if Aegon wins the Iron Throne all by himself then there might be little to no willingness among a certain group of his supporters to share power with her. After all, in the end Dany is not only a woman - and thus not really eligible to rule, anyway - but also a descendant of Daeron Falseborn and all the kings who did anything in their power to end the Blackfyre line.

I don't think this will become an open motivation - Aegon is going to take the throne as Rhaegar's son - but those people behind the scenes knowing/learning the truth (and believing it) might end up being motivated by that fact to no small degree. Perhaps even Aegon himself if/when he learns whose son he actually is.

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