Free folk Daemon

Is Varys a Blackfyre?

163 posts in this topic

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think I have seen the idea, and/or a  possible relation to Varys before. Such a relationship seems pretty speculative at this point. 

Sure, but our earlier speculations - that the Tattered Prince might be some dude with a grievance towards Varys/Illyrio, who eventually is going to tell Tyrion/Dany the truth about Illyrio and Varys' origins and their driving motivation - seems to be unlikely unless we want to believe Varys/Illyrio were already a thing back in 262 AC.

They may already have been born by that time, sure, but they would have been young children, not yet in a position where they could influence the choosing of the Prince of Pentos. And the general idea is that Tatters was chosen as the Prince to neutralize/kill him. That's why the man fled rather than accept 'the honor'.

7 hours ago, dmc515 said:

As for Tatters being Illyrio's dad?  Meh.  It's like, hey we have two notable characters from Pentos -- and get this, they're father and son!  Seems kinda lame.  However, it is interesting that Tatters being chosen Prince happened shortly after the Ninepenny Kings war.  Never thought about that before.  Hm..

From the moment we started thinking about the fact (which is a very subtle thing in ADwD) that the Tattered Prince actually intends to side the Windblown with Dany, there are reasons to believe this man truly has something to offer to her. The Pentos connection is no accident, which implies he might know stuff about Varys and Illyrio - and she has to get second thoughts about these two if there is to be Second Dance where they (and Aegon) are on the other side since ADwD also made it very clear that Dany knows she owes Illyrio for the dragon eggs (and Drogo and Barristan Selmy).

Tyrion telling her about Aegon is not going to cause her to declare/believe the boy is fake - especially not if Tyrion tells her the truth that they intended Aegon marrying her and teaming up with the Golden Company. Jon Connington being with Aegon also could be seen as a sign that the boy is the real deal - she might be somewhat irritated/confused as to why nobody ever told her about that, but she was still a young girl back then. She would not even know for sure whether Viserys III knew about all that or not (she would conclude most likely not, just as he was left in the dark about the Dornish marriage pact, but she couldn't be sure).

In that sense it would be very difficult for her to just arrive at the conclusion that Illyrio is betraying her. Especially in light of the fact that she has it from Jorah that Varys (whose connection with Illyrio would be revealed to her now, too) actually wanted her watched, not killed.

But if the Tattered Prince told Dany about Varys/Illyrio's Blackfyre ancestry then their actions might be seen in a different light entirely. Such origins would cast great doubts on Aegon's identity and parentage as well as the sincerity of Varys/Illyrio's Targaryen support. And if the Tattered Prince had some intimate knowledge about their deeds - say, revolving around Varys' machination during the last years of Aerys II's reign and the Rebellion - then this would be reason for even more doubt.

But that all doesn't make all that much sense in light of Tatters rather early exile from Pentos. If Varys/Illyrio were powerful figures as early as that, they would be very wrinkly right now, even if we assume they were only around twenty at that time.

The idea that he might be Illyrio's father is based on the idea that Illyrio must know by now why the hell Varys teamed up with him of all people. He claims he doesn't know - but he must know, and the answer to that question is likely what lies at the core of their entire partnership. Illyrio is a special person, and that's why Varys chose him.

If they are both Blackfyre descendants, then Varys would have chosen Illyrio because of that fact - because he was his cousin and no eunuch, so Illyrio could continue the family line. I've speculated once that it might go deeper - poor Illyrio may not have known who he actually was and what he was about. Varys could have found out who his true father/mother were, and from whom he was ultimately descended. That way Varys would have not only given Illyrio back his past and identity, but also a future to live and strive towards. They ended up acquiring power and wealth in Pentos for a specific purpose. You don't do stuff like that just on a whim.

If Tatters was his biological father then the man might have abandoned his infant son and wife in favor of the free life of a sellsword, and Illyrio may have ended up in the streets after the early death of his mother (especially if Tatters behavior caused the entire family to be disgraced).

But what such a Tattered (Mopatis) Prince might want from Dany besides Pentos is difficult to say. He could still be a valuable source of information yet he would hardly be opposed to the actions of his son. Founding his own sellsword company is also something one could expect from the grandson of Bittersteel, as the fact that he wants to be his own man rather than commit himself to some stupid (and quite dead) cause. The Tattered Prince could be Bittersteel's grandson and still see himself as Pentoshi through and through - his mother's family would be a weird branch of the royal family of savage Westeros, but his father's family could very well be of the highest Pentoshi nobility, something he might be more proud of or interested in than his bastard grandfather. In that sense, his heart's desire could very well be to die as the ruler of Pentos, and he might be willing to do anything in his power to accomplish that. He might be a father completely estranged from his son who doesn't really care how his actions are going to affect the lives and fortunes of his son and grandson.

The fact that we don't know the man's (family) name is also kind of curious. There is no reason not to give it unless it would give something away. If the man was X Mopatis it would give away pretty much.

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

but we won't get any deep details on the earlier Blackfyres or their rebellions - aside from the fact that they were all failures and that Varys/Illyrio's ancestors were pissed about that.

Maybe not in TWOW or ADOS, but we will definitely see Bittersteel in other novels from Dunk & Egg series. GRRM planned to write 7, or 9, or 12 of them in total. Their entire lives, up to their death in Summerhall. Daemon II Blackfyre was kept imprisoned by Targaryens, for over 5 years after events in The Mystery Knight. So most likely, Dunk will see him again. Also after his death, when Blackfyres came to Westeros with their Third Rebellion, Egg and Dunk, also took part. In Fourth Rebellion Dunk, Egg and his sons also fought against Blackfyres. So we will get plenty of information about them.

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Lollygag

It isn't about the Blackfyres. The Blackfyres are dead and irrelevant. It is about the whole 'fake prince' idea. The Blackfyres are used as a background to give Varys/Illyrio motivation for their actions and to provide Aegon with an alternative ancestry.

As a concept, they likely grew out of Dunk & Egg when George decided to write more stories about this period. That way he could connect those two time periods as he already did with Bloodraven and Walder Frey in TMK.

Before that, Varys/Illyrio and Aegon would likely have had some other Targaryen connections, possibly through some younger or older son or some bastard who thought he should be king instead of Maekar, Aegon V, or Jaehaerys II (hence the old ideas about Aerion's son Maegor, Aerion's hypothetical bastards, Egg's mysterious third son, etc. having a connection to Varys/Illyrio).

Such a connection is necessary, I think, because Varys and Illyrio need to have a motivation as to why they concern themselves with Westeros and the Iron Throne at all. The idea that they are just 'scrupulous people' who prop up a fake pretender who is nothing but a whore's son doesn't chime well with their overall motivations or back story. They are already rich and influential as hell. They don't need the Iron Throne to prosper. In fact, if they wanted to control the Iron Throne after Aegon's ascension Illyrio would most likely have to focus even more on Westeros than he does today - his business and enterprises in Essos would inevitably suffer. And the man really doesn't look as if he is looking forward to actually work in KL, alongside savage morons who actually think they have anything in common with the heraldic animals on their clothes.

The Blackfyres provide a back story. But they are nothing more than a back story. We can expect some lengthy paragraphs on Varys and Illyrio's (and Aegon's actual) parentage somewhere down the line, and perhaps even more stuff on the War of the Ninepenny Kings, Maelys Blackfyre, and his family (which may or may not be connected to Varys/Illyrio) but we won't get any deep details on the earlier Blackfyres or their rebellions - aside from the fact that they were all failures and that Varys/Illyrio's ancestors were pissed about that.

In a sense, you can replace 'Blackfyres' there with 'other Targaryens' or 'Targaryen bastards who thought they should be king'. That's pretty much what they are. And the animosity/hatred some of the Golden Company veterans might still feel for certain stalwart Targaryen loyalists (Barristan Selmy, say) might also become relevant when the stage for the Second Dance is set. Varys/Illyrio wanted to reunite the branches again through Aegon and Daenerys, but if Aegon wins the Iron Throne all by himself then there might be little to no willingness among a certain group of his supporters to share power with her. After all, in the end Dany is not only a woman - and thus not really eligible to rule, anyway - but also a descendant of Daeron Falseborn and all the kings who did anything in their power to end the Blackfyre line.

I don't think this will become an open motivation - Aegon is going to take the throne as Rhaegar's son - but those people behind the scenes knowing/learning the truth (and believing it) might end up being motivated by that fact to no small degree. Perhaps even Aegon himself if/when he learns whose son he actually is.

Then why did they have her wed Drogo? 

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4 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Then why did they have her wed Drogo? 

Obviously they did so when they sent Aegon to Volantis. And that's what Tyrion is going to tell Dany. Her nephew was on his way to wed her and failed to reach because she didn't come west to Volantis as everybody expected.

That they didn't want to wed her to Aegon back in AGoT should be clear to her and us - but then, who knows? Perhaps Dany concludes that they wanted her to hatch the dragons and become a power of her own to be ready and capable to take the Iron Throne? That is, in a sense, what she thinks about herself.

It is not unlikely that Dany was never more than the coin to buy Drogo - and Viserys III was the pawn to prepare the way for Aegon. But it is also true that the loss of the Dothraki and the dragons changed that. The Golden Company isn't very eager to invade Westeros just with a feigned boy. They do it in the end but their chances aren't all that good. They wanted Dany and the dragons because that would pretty guarantee success. Rhaegar's son and Rhaegar's sister as dragonriders would have won the Iron Throne in five minutes. That was the safe plan. If the not-so-safe-plan somehow succeeds, Dany will become an irritation and eventually an obstacle.

And I'm sure Aegon's parentage will become an important plot point on the private level. Aegon himself might end up loathing Dany not only because of Arianne's whispers but perhaps also because he learns how Jaehaerys II and Aerys II treated his Blackfyre kin. Maelys the Monstrous could, in the end, be rather closely related to Illyrio (or Varys). We simply do not know yet.

Dany will need pretty good information that is actually going to turn her against Illyrio in addition to Tyrion speculating that Illyrio may have connections to the Blackfyres - which he may suspect at this point, or not. Tyrion doesn't know that Connington was only introduced to the lad at a later age, for all Tyrion knows Connington could have been in on the plan from the start - or he could have conclusive proof that Aegon is who they say he is.

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1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Obviously they did so when they sent Aegon to Volantis. And that's what Tyrion is going to tell Dany. Her nephew was on his way to wed her and failed to reach because she didn't come west to Volantis as everybody expected.

That they didn't want to wed her to Aegon back in AGoT should be clear to her and us - but then, who knows? Perhaps Dany concludes that they wanted her to hatch the dragons and become a power of her own to be ready and capable to take the Iron Throne? That is, in a sense, what she thinks about herself.

It is not unlikely that Dany was never more than the coin to buy Drogo - and Viserys III was the pawn to prepare the way for Aegon. But it is also true that the loss of the Dothraki and the dragons changed that. The Golden Company isn't very eager to invade Westeros just with a feigned boy. They do it in the end but their chances aren't all that good. They wanted Dany and the dragons because that would pretty guarantee success. Rhaegar's son and Rhaegar's sister as dragonriders would have won the Iron Throne in five minutes. That was the safe plan. If the not-so-safe-plan somehow succeeds, Dany will become an irritation and eventually an obstacle.

And I'm sure Aegon's parentage will become an important plot point on the private level. Aegon himself might end up loathing Dany not only because of Arianne's whispers but perhaps also because he learns how Jaehaerys II and Aerys II treated his Blackfyre kin. Maelys the Monstrous could, in the end, be rather closely related to Illyrio (or Varys). We simply do not know yet.

Dany will need pretty good information that is actually going to turn her against Illyrio in addition to Tyrion speculating that Illyrio may have connections to the Blackfyres - which he may suspect at this point, or not. Tyrion doesn't know that Connington was only introduced to the lad at a later age, for all Tyrion knows Connington could have been in on the plan from the start - or he could have conclusive proof that Aegon is who they say he is.

So you are not saying that Varys and Illyrio wanted to reunite the main Targaryen line and the offshoot line before Daenerys hatched her dragons? 

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22 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

So you are not saying that Varys and Illyrio wanted to reunite the main Targaryen line and the offshoot line before Daenerys hatched her dragons? 

Nope, I never said that.

Could be that they entertained the notion if Dany survived being Drogo's wife - but if you ask yourself whether Illyrio wanted 'the noblest lad in the world' to be married to the former broodmare of a savage horselord I think you know the answer to that question...

And it is not that Dany all by herself would have been worth anything as Drogo's widow. Without the dragons she would be pretty much nothing.

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8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, I never said that.

Could be that they entertained the notion if Dany survived being Drogo's wife - but if you ask yourself whether Illyrio wanted 'the noblest lad in the world' to be married to the former broodmare of a savage horselord I think you know the answer to that question...

And it is not that Dany all by herself would have been worth anything as Drogo's widow. Without the dragons she would be pretty much nothing.

Sorry, I misunderstood when you said, "Varys/Illyrio wanted to reunite the branches again through Aegon and Daenerys." Clearly my mistake. 

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39 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Sorry, I misunderstood when you said, "Varys/Illyrio wanted to reunite the branches again through Aegon and Daenerys." Clearly my mistake. 

You didn't misunderstand me. That was the plan in ADwD, was it not? But it wasn't the plan in AGoT when Dany married Drogo.

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15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You didn't misunderstand me. That was the plan in ADwD, was it not? But it wasn't the plan in AGoT when Dany married Drogo.

I am not convinced that they wanted to reunite the lines as much as they wanted Daenerys's legitimacy and dragons. But the net effect would be the same, I suppose. 

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Posted (edited)

32 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am not convinced that they wanted to reunite the lines as much as they wanted Daenerys's legitimacy and dragons. But the net effect would be the same, I suppose. 

Exactly. Marrying them to each other means uniting the lines. And it is quite clear that Strickland wanted that, too. Because he didn't think they stand a chance on their own. They may have thought they could do it with the help of the Dothraki, but the Golden Company alone, they think, cannot win. They suffered too many defeats to be confident.

Aegon's legitimacy apparently isn't that much of an issue. Else they would have married Dany to him from the beginning, and they would found/come up with another way to strike a deal with the Dothraki.

After Dany married Drogo she was no longer a fit bride for a Targaryen king.

Edited by Lord Varys

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Posted (edited)

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Exactly. Marrying them to each other means uniting the lines. And it is quite clear that Strickland wanted that, too. Because he didn't think they stand a chance on their own. They may have thought they could do it with the help of the Dothraki, but the Golden Company alone, they think, cannot win. They suffered too many defeats to be confident.

Aegon's legitimacy apparently isn't that much of an issue. Else they would have married Dany to him from the beginning, and they would found/come up with another way to strike a deal with the Dothraki.

After Dany married Drogo she was no longer a fit bride for a Targaryen king.

You brought up gold for four generations Homeless Harry Strickland to bolster your other point, so I think you ought to acknowledge that gold for four generations Homeless Harry Strickland was very concerned about the noblest young lad's appearance of legitimacy. I suspect it was a concern for the eunuch and the fat man too. 

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

You brought up gold for four generations Homeless Harry Strickland to bolster your other point, so I think you ought to acknowledge that gold for four generations Homeless Harry Strickland was very concerned about the noblest young lad's appearance of legitimacy. I suspect it was a concern for the eunuch and the fat man too. 

Sure, but you have to keep the scenario in mind. The fat man's original plan involved 40,000 Dothraki screamers (and a khalasar of 100,000 people), King Viserys III, and the Golden Company. Arakhs, swords, and spears give you legitimacy. And Viserys III might, too.

We still don't know when (or if) Aegon was to join uncle Viserys, but he would have eventually - either with or after the Golden Company.

The reversed plan involves only the Golden Company. In that scenario Aegon needs legitimacy and dragons because he is the invading pretender, not the presumptive heir/successor of the invading pretender.

Back in the earlier plan King Viserys III, his Dothraki, and the Golden Company would do the trick, and Prince Aegon would like step in and heal the woulds of the torn realm after the Usurper's line was gone and the Targaryens restored to the Iron Throne. Once childless King Viserys III died - his nephew could take over (an infant by Arianne Martell could easily be passed over).

In that scenario Aegon would have gotten legitimacy from his royal uncle and, of course, Jon Connington. Within a Targaryen narrative - a Targaryen king on the throne - another Targaryen pretender is easier to swallow when the Targaryens are basically just landless exiles.

Varys/Illyrio's game is very much based on public appearances and the narratives people are willing to swallow. The Aegon story under a King Viserys III would work - and the savior part even more if the Dothraki and the Mad King's son had ravaged the Realm (succeeding in the end, but at a high price). And the narrative of Rhaegar's son and sister teaming up like Jaehaerys I and the Good Queen coming to Westeros to save their people from evil would have worked like magic if they had been able to pull it off.

Aegon going alone isn't as ideal. I think it will work just as well, perhaps even better (if their enemies in Westeros make one mistake after another, which they are likely to do) but Aegon's starting position isn't ideal. Right now he doesn't look much better than Daemon III Blackfyre who also landed in the Stormlands with the Golden Company. The difference is that it is likely that the Realm won't unite against him. But he will still have to fight and win battles, and he can lose (some of) them.

Aegon/Dany may have been able to take the Iron Throne without a real fight. Varys could have seen to that. He might even be very efficient with Aegon, but without dragons there will be a lot of people whose support might be lukewarm at best, at least in the beginning.

And with Dany having dragons a considerable amount of people will switch to her when she arrives. That is inevitable, which is why I think Aegon and Varys/Illyrio will start this Second Dance by targeting her before she even sets foot on Westerosi soil. But you know my Strong Belwas idea, don't you?

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but you have to keep the scenario in mind. The fat man's original plan involved 40,000 Dothraki screamers (and a khalasar of 100,000 people), King Viserys III, and the Golden Company. Arakhs, swords, and spears give you legitimacy. And Viserys III might, too.

We still don't know when (or if) Aegon was to join uncle Viserys, but he would have eventually - either with or after the Golden Company.

The reversed plan involves only the Golden Company. In that scenario Aegon needs legitimacy and dragons because he is the invading pretender, not the presumptive heir/successor of the invading pretender.

Back in the earlier plan King Viserys III, his Dothraki, and the Golden Company would do the trick, and Prince Aegon would like step in and heal the woulds of the torn realm after the Usurper's line was gone and the Targaryens restored to the Iron Throne. Once childless King Viserys III died - his nephew could take over (an infant by Arianne Martell could easily be passed over).

In that scenario Aegon would have gotten legitimacy from his royal uncle and, of course, Jon Connington. Within a Targaryen narrative - a Targaryen king on the throne - another Targaryen pretender is easier to swallow when the Targaryens are basically just landless exiles.

Varys/Illyrio's game is very much based on public appearances and the narratives people are willing to swallow. The Aegon story under a King Viserys III would work - and the savior part even more if the Dothraki and the Mad King's son had ravaged the Realm (succeeding in the end, but at a high price). And the narrative of Rhaegar's son and sister teaming up like Jaehaerys I and the Good Queen coming to Westeros to save their people from evil would have worked like magic if they had been able to pull it off.

Aegon going alone isn't as ideal. I think it will work just as well, perhaps even better (if their enemies in Westeros make one mistake after another, which they are likely to do) but Aegon's starting position isn't ideal. Right now he doesn't look much better than Daemon III Blackfyre who also landed in the Stormlands with the Golden Company. The difference is that it is likely that the Realm won't unite against him. But he will still have to fight and win battles, and he can lose (some of) them.

Aegon/Dany may have been able to take the Iron Throne without a real fight. Varys could have seen to that. He might even be very efficient with Aegon, but without dragons there will be a lot of people whose support might be lukewarm at best, at least in the beginning.

And with Dany having dragons a considerable amount of people will switch to her when she arrives. That is inevitable, which is why I think Aegon and Varys/Illyrio will start this Second Dance by targeting her before she even sets foot on Westerosi soil. But you know my Strong Belwas idea, don't you?

I never bought the let's give Viserys a bigger army, assume that he will ruin the land and be hated, and then have Aegon sweep in with a smaller army and win everyone's allegiance plan. But you describe a more plausible scenario for how it might have worked had the author wanted to tell that story. I think Illyrio intended for Viserys to remain in Pentos, where the fat man could have plied him with bed slaves and Arbor gold until the time came for Strong Belwas to make the king an offer he couldna refuse... accept your nephew as king (and a few sweeteners) or we tie you up in a sack and toss you into the Bay of Pentos to swim with the fishes. 

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3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I never bought the let's give Viserys a bigger army, assume that he will ruin the land and be hated, and then have Aegon sweep in with a smaller army and win everyone's allegiance plan. But you describe a more plausible scenario for how it might have worked had the author wanted to tell that story. I think Illyrio intended for Viserys to remain in Pentos, where the fat man could have plied him with bed slaves and Arbor gold until the time came for Strong Belwas to make the king an offer he couldna refuse... accept your nephew as king (and a few sweeteners) or we tie you up in a sack and toss you into the Bay of Pentos to swim with the fishes. 

I know you think that, you repeat it all the while, but that doesn't make a lot of sense. For one, it is Viserys III who made the pact with Drogo, not Illyrio Mopatis or the Golden Company. Drogo made a promise to Viserys III, and he intended to keep it, apparently. He does, after a fashion, does he not?

Illyrio's plan to convince Drogo to invade involves threatening the lives of the Targaryens, making the whole thing personal. Viserys III and Dany are part of Drogo's family now, and that's why the man intended to retaliate.

Drogo would have never invaded for this Aegon boy. And without the Dothraki this Aegon would have had nothing but some reluctant sellswords and a fat daddy.

In addition, we do know that Viserys III and his Dothraki were supposed to join the Golden Company. So either all were supposed to go together (which would make sense in a scenario where Viserys III welcomes Aegon back into the family as his long lost nephew and presumptive heir) or Aegon was supposed to simply shop up and pick up the pieces after Viserys III had conveniently died without an heir on the Iron Throne. Connington would have vouched for him, the Golden Company would have stood with him, and nobody would have stood against him if all the other royal pretenders were dead.

In any case, the picture of the original plan we have at this point implies that the Golden Company was supposed to work with Viserys III, not against him, nor was Prince Aegon to be king before King Viserys III.

And the key element in the original plan are the Dothraki. They provide the muscle for a Targaryen restoration. Not the Golden Company or the Targaryen loyalists back in Westeros. Without a strong army to motivate people to declare for the rightful king precious few people would, repeating the Blackfyre failures.

There is a reason why Varys/Illyrio draw the Dothraki in this game. They give the Targaryens the muscle the Blackfyres never had.

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Posted (edited)

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I know you think that, you repeat it all the while, but that doesn't make a lot of sense. For one, it is Viserys III who made the pact with Drogo, not Illyrio Mopatis or the Golden Company. Drogo made a promise to Viserys III, and he intended to keep it, apparently. He does, after a fashion, does he not?

Viserys couldna make a sandwich, much less a pact with Drogo. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Illyrio's plan to convince Drogo to invade involves threatening the lives of the Targaryens, making the whole thing personal. Viserys III and Dany are part of Drogo's family now, and that's why the man intended to retaliate.

Drogo didna give a rat's ass about Viserys. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Drogo would have never invaded for this Aegon boy. And without the Dothraki this Aegon would have had nothing but some reluctant sellswords and a fat daddy.

I disagree, but I am sure it's because my ideas don't make sense, as opposed to yours. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In addition, we do know that Viserys III and his Dothraki were supposed to join the Golden Company. So either all were supposed to go together (which would make sense in a scenario where Viserys III welcomes Aegon back into the family as his long lost nephew and presumptive heir) or Aegon was supposed to simply shop up and pick up the pieces after Viserys III had conveniently died without an heir on the Iron Throne. Connington would have vouched for him, the Golden Company would have stood with him, and nobody would have stood against him if all the other royal pretenders were dead.

In any case, the picture of the original plan we have at this point implies that the Golden Company was supposed to work with Viserys III, not against him, nor was Prince Aegon to be king before King Viserys III.

See, I think Varys and Illyrio and the Golden Company are BLACKFYRE supporters, not Targaryen supporters. I don't think they ever wanted Viserys on the throne, and they had not spent the past 15 to 20 years to that end. They were happy to use him, but not to enthrone him. I know you don't think anyone cares about Blackfyre. But I don't agree with you. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is a reason why Varys/Illyrio draw the Dothraki in this game. They give the Targaryens the muscle the Blackfyres never had.

Of course. But Aegon, not Viserys or Daenerys, was the intended beneficiary. 

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Viserys couldna make a sandwich, much less a pact with Drogo. 

Not on his own. But Illyrio brokered such a deal for him. Do you think Drogo gave a rat's ass about Illyrio's lad? He cared about his Targaryen wife and should have cared about his brother-in-law. 

His untimely death nearly ruined everything. Imagine what would have happened if Dany had died in childbirth, producing a (stillborn) daughter. Poisoning attempt or not, Drogo wouldn't have fought to seat the Mad King's granddaughter on the Iron Throne.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Drogo didna give a rat's ass about Viserys. 

That is, in a sense, true. But he didn't need to like the guy, he just needed to honor his promise. And one assumes he would have done that if Viserys hadn't fucked it up. Especially after the poisoning attempt.

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

See, I think Varys and Illyrio and the Golden Company are BLACKFYRE supporters, not Targaryen supporters. I don't think they ever wanted Viserys on the throne, and they had not spent the past 15 to 20 years to that end. They were happy to use him, but not to enthrone him. I know you don't think anyone cares about Blackfyre. But I don't agree with you. 

Of course. But Aegon, not Viserys or Daenerys, was the intended beneficiary. 

Aegon is the ultimate beneficiary, not the only one. The plan was to invade Westeros with Viserys III, the Dothraki, and the Golden Company. At least that's what Tristan Rivers believes, who likely knows more about the fat man's plan than you or I.

At this point the Targaryens are no longer enemies of the Blackfyres but their potential allies. They all sit in the same boat of exiles. That's why Jon Connington fought with them, too.

If there was a deep Targaryen resentment among the men then this should have come up in ADwD - both among the man who don't know who Aegon actually is (thinking they fight for a Targaryen pretender), and among the men who do know it (who should have been opposed to the Daernerys deal).

Instead it is pretty clear that the captain-general of the Golden Company thinks they stand no chance without Daenerys Targaryen. This isn't the thinking of a man who cares about 'the Blackfyre cause'.

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@Lord Varys @Lost Melnibonean

Just wanted to add a little something to your discussion;

Quote

Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him. Dany had only been a little girl, but she remembered. "I have sellswords too."

 

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Posted (edited)

23 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

@Lord Varys @Lost Melnibonean

Just wanted to add a little something to your discussion;

We both know that quote, but that means pretty little considering this may have been before the gestation of the Dothraki plan - or before the Golden Company knew about the part they were supposed to play in the Dothraki plan. 

The fact is that Tristan Rivers believes the Golden Company intended to join Viserys III and his Dothraki - and nobody at the gathering implies the Golden Company had a serious problem with that.

If Viserys III had approached the Golden Company with no real plan besides 'I'm the rightful king, guys, come and help me win my throne' then it is pretty clear why they laughed at him.

But after he had made a pact with the most powerful Dothraki khal with the help of Magister Illyrio he was no longer that laughable, was he?

I know he fucked it up, etc. but we view Viserys III through Dany's eyes and Jorah's commentary. Arianne's POV shows us how people viewed him who didn't know him (intimately). He was a pretender to the Iron Throne.

Edited by Lord Varys

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Posted (edited)

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And with Dany having dragons a considerable amount of people will switch to her when she arrives. That is inevitable, which is why I think Aegon and Varys/Illyrio will start this Second Dance by targeting her before she even sets foot on Westerosi soil. But you know my Strong Belwas idea, don't you?

Aegon will get dragons, too, otherwise  it wouldn't be a real dance of Dragons. And the theory, that Aegon and/or Varys/Illyrio will give Belwas the wink to kill Dany (if he would even do that for them, because why should he?) is not very good, because it could be easily traced back to them. Remember, Dany knows, that Belwas was send to her by Illyrio. 

Edited by Der Karrenkönig

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2 minutes ago, Der Karrenkönig said:

Aegon will get dragons, too, otherwise  it wouldn't be a real dance of Dragons. And the theory, that Aegon and/or Varys/Illyrio will give Belwas the wink to kill Dany (if he would even do that for them, because why should he?) is not very good, because it could be easily traced back to them. Remember, Dany knows, that Belwas is Illyrio's man. 

So what? When Dany is dead, they win. It is only going to backfire if Belwas fails. And it might certainly be that he plans to kill not only her but Tyrion, the dragons, and other people who might try to avenge her, too. But Dany is clearly the heart of her own movement. Without her, everything would collapse.

I technically agree that a Second Dance should have a dragon on the other side, but if it is just going to be called 'the Second Dance of the Dragons' because another Aegon fights another presumptuous female pretender trying to steal his throne, then it will already fit the bill. Just like with King Aegon II, King Aegon VI will sit on the Iron Throne when the female Targaryen pretender pushes her own claim. And people will recognize those similarities.

Aside from that the wars shouldn't have that much in common. Aegon and Dany don't personally loathe each other, their families do not hate each other, there aren't twenty dragons around to kill each other, etc. In fact, Drogon fighting Viserion or Rhaegal isn't even remotely in the same league as most of the dragon battles during the Dance. The First Dance clearly is the giant in that category, and the Second Dance just a dwarf.

That could change if old dragons like the Cannibal showed up - but if that doesn't happen all we could hope for are additional hatchlings for other dragon eggs - either more old ones, or some Dany's dragons will produce in the future. 

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