Why is Baelish considered the "great architect" of the war?

[shameeka]

8 hours ago, Geddus said:

This, and he also had an insane amount of luck, everything went in the best possible way for him (I think that's why he looks like a master puppeteer, while in reality he just took every opportunity to sow dissension).

For instance the lie about the dagger was a huge and frankly stupid gamble that could have easily backfired and got him killed, in fact it's kinda unbelievable that it didn't.

I think the lie about the dagger only worked because George made Catelyn uncharacteristically stupid enough to go along with it. I personally think Catelyn abducting Tyrion was OOC, then again George knows best of course. Who am I to dare argue with him?

 

Baelish can be grand architect or master puppeteer or whatever people want to call him, but one can't assume that he never makes a wrong move and none of his opponents are smart enough to defeat him.

I think he is good at arranging things so that there will be minimal damage for him even if his plans fail, but someday his mistakes and failures however little they may be will catch up to him and one of his pawns will outsmart him.

[Foot_Of_The_King]

He has mastered two skills, contingency plans and the power of suggestion. 

[Geddus]

6 hours ago, shameeka said:

I think the lie about the dagger only worked because George made Catelyn uncharacteristically stupid enough to go along with it. I personally think Catelyn abducting Tyrion was OOC, then again George knows best of course. Who am I to dare argue with him?

I found Catelyn believing Littlefinger in that instance pretty normal, she didn't have any reason to doubt him; her kidnapping Tyrion on the other hand seemed kinda forced, I agree.

About the lie, I think it was stupid because it was incredibly risky: the chances of it being uncovered were very high and all the people involved could have had Littlefinger killed at will (that Tyrion not only didn't act against him but didn't even tell anyone of his involvement still boggles my mind, I think GRRM basically cheated there).

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

7 hours ago, shameeka said:

I think the lie about the dagger only worked because George made Catelyn uncharacteristically stupid enough to go along with it. I personally think Catelyn abducting Tyrion was OOC, then again George knows best of course. Who am I to dare argue with him?

Catelyn had little reason to doubt Littlefinger, she grew up with him and he loved her. She hadn’t seen him in years, and had no idea what he’d become.

Kidnapping Tyrion may seem mad, but remember that she’s caught up in paranoia about the Lannisters and genuinely believed he was responsible for the attempted murder on her son. Catelyn’s actions were those of someone in way over her head.

[Adam Yozza]

5 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Catelyn had little reason to doubt Littlefinger, she grew up with him and he loved her. She hadn’t seen him in years, and had no idea what he’d become.

Kidnapping Tyrion may seem mad, but remember that she’s caught up in paranoia about the Lannisters and genuinely believed he was responsible for the attempted murder on her son. Catelyn’s actions were those of someone in way over her head.

Also, she only kidnapped/arrested him after he recognized her. She did at first try to avoid confrontation and only acted when he became a risk.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

15 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Also, she only kidnapped/arrested him after he recognized her. She did at first try to avoid confrontation and only acted when he became a risk.

Exactly, I meant to say something similar. It could be argued that she should have tried to brazen it out at the inn, then taken off, but she was labouring under the belief that the Lannisters were plotting against her and her family, and that Tyrion was in on the plot. 

Even if she didn't think Tyrion would try to apprehend her, she knew he would at least mention her presence at the inn when he returned to KL. 

[Geddus]

2 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Also, she only kidnapped/arrested him after he recognized her. She did at first try to avoid confrontation and only acted when he became a risk.

See, I never got why that was so bad. Tyrion had seen her, so? A couple weeks after that he arrives in King's Landing, tells someone he met Catelyn in the Riverlands and... what? Why would that have been so dangerous?

All that happened afterwards was Lysa's fault, Catelyn only went to the Erye to throw people off but she was planning to bring the dwarf to the capital IIRC, everything's pretty self-explanatory. It's the kidnapping / arrest I'm having trouble understanding (from a character's perspective of course, plot-wise the reasoning is very clear).

[Adam Yozza]

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

See, I never got why that was so bad. Tyrion had seen her, so? A couple weeks after that he arrives in King's Landing, tells someone he met Catelyn in the Riverlands and... what? Why would that have been so dangerous?

All that happened afterwards was Lysa's fault, Catelyn only went to the Erye to throw people off but she was planning to bring the dwarf to the capital IIRC, everything's pretty self-explanatory. It's the kidnapping / arrest I'm having trouble understanding (from a character's perspective of course, plot-wise the reasoning is very clear).

That's so bad because she believed the Lannisters where plotting against her family. If Tyrion reported to Jaime and Cersei that he'd encountered Catelyn Stark travelling incognitio in the Riverlands they'll start to suspect that they're making plots of their own. Her worry is that this will push them into making a move against Ned.

[Ygrain]

On 12. 4. 2018 at 11:56 PM, UnFit Finlay said:

Nope. If Jon had learned about Littlefinger's corruption - which is doubtful since Tyrion replaced him as Master of Coin and couldn't figure it out - then his murder would've been sufficient to cover it up. There'd be no need to start a war.

All I am saying is that while Jon Arryn's murder was mainly a means to an end, there may have been another motive. The timing was definitely chosen to cast the suspicion at the Lannisters, but who knows what Arryn may have stumbled into?

As to Tyrion not figuring it all out, he might have, given enough time, he certainly saw there was something fishy going on.

On 12. 4. 2018 at 11:56 PM, UnFit Finlay said:

Jaime and Cersei provided convenient means for what?

To make Jon Arryn's death seem suspicious. Those two had one hell of a motive, and given Ned's not actually subtle feelings about the Lannisters, it was an easy bait.

On 12. 4. 2018 at 11:56 PM, UnFit Finlay said:

The war began because he had Lysa kill Jon Arryn and send Catelyn a letter saying the Lannisters did it and then lied about Tyrion owning the dagger that was used in the attempt on Bran. This directly led to Cat arresting Tyrion and kick started the armed conflict.

Aside from Jaime shoving Bran out of the window - which Littlefinger couldn't have known about - the Twincest had nothing to do with any of this. He could've done pretty much the same things whether Jaime and Cersei were having sex or not.

He couldn't. He made an educated guess that in case of Jon Arryn's death, Robert would turn to Ned instead of Stannis or Renly, and that if Ned had a suspicion that Jon's death wasn't of natural causes, he would start to investigate. If there was nothing suspicious going on, if the Lannisters had nothing to hide, Ned would never have confronted Cersei, and here is where the conflict starts for real because that's when Robb calls the banners and when Tywin stops hiding behind his dogs' plundering. 

On 12. 4. 2018 at 11:56 PM, UnFit Finlay said:

....And yet he only took any action towards that goal when it looked like Stannis would become next in line to the Iron Throne. Seems extremely convenient timing doesn't it?

Oh, Baelish definitely wouldn't want Stannis on the IT, on that we can agree, but are you so sure that this was the first time LF made such a move? Remember Ned's fateful visit to the brothel? How did he get there? He wanted to leave KL ASAP along with Arya and Sansa, but what happened? LF chose that particular moment to tell him about Barra. Are we supposed to believe that he had only found out? Had Baelish not interfered, Ned would never have encountered Jaime, who learned about his whereabouts how? 

On 13. 4. 2018 at 3:13 AM, shameeka said:

I think he is good at arranging things so that there will be minimal damage for him even if his plans fail, but someday his mistakes and failures however little they may be will catch up to him and one of his pawns will outsmart him.

And boy, I am looking forward to this!

22 hours ago, Geddus said:

(that Tyrion not only didn't act against him but didn't even tell anyone of his involvement still boggles my mind, I think GRRM basically cheated there).

But who would he tell? Jaime wasn't there, and other than him, who was there that Tyrion liked or trusted? No-one. So he kept the information to himself, watched and waited to see what's cooking. Plus, his ego of the smartest guy around prevented him from realising that LF could actually outsmart him and might be playing a really high game.

[Geddus]

14 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

That's so bad because she believed the Lannisters where plotting against her family. If Tyrion reported to Jaime and Cersei that he'd encountered Catelyn Stark travelling incognitio in the Riverlands they'll start to suspect that they're making plots of their own. Her worry is that this will push them into making a move against Ned.

Catelyn could have been visiting her sick father, for example, there would have been nothing suspicious about that. Also, she already thinks the Lannisters are plotting against her family, so...

 

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

But who would he tell?

Tywin, for one. Him and Tyrion even talk about Small Council members of questionable loyalty but for some reason the dwarf doesn't think telling his father that the Master of Coin is trying (successfully) to spark things up between Lannisters and Starks would be a good idea. Had he done that, I really doubt Littlefinger would have ended up as lord of Harrenhal.

[Adam Yozza]

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

Catelyn could have been visiting her sick father, for example, there would have been nothing suspicious about that. Also, she already thinks the Lannisters are plotting against her family, so...

That would have been fine if she had travelled in public  with a standard sized escort. The fact that she was travelling in disguise, accompanied by only Ser Rodrik; a noble would normally travel with more than just one old knight, and people would wonder why the Master at Arms would be the one to escort Cat to the Riverlands when he has hundreds of guards who could do that in his place instead of abandoning his duties at Winterfell. The way she was travelling and trying to remain hidden would give the impression that she'd been doing things in secret...which would alert the Lannisters; who she suspects of murdering Jon Arryn and trying to murder her son twice.

[Ygrain]

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

Catelyn could have been visiting her sick father, for example, there would have been nothing suspicious about that. 

Travelling without proper retinue and clothes befitting her status? I don't think that would be convincing.

 

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

Tywin, for one. Him and Tyrion even talk about Small Council members of questionable loyalty but for some reason the dwarf doesn't think telling his father that the Master of Coin is trying (successfully) to spark things up between Lannisters and Starks would be a good idea. Had he done that, I really doubt Littlefinger would have ended up as lord of Harrenhal.

I'd ascribe it to Tyrion's fragile ego - Tywin has crushed it so many times that Tyrion probably wouldn't confide to him even if his life depended on it (which, in a way, it did). 

[Lord Varys]

Littlefinger fueled animosities - which were already there - between the Starks and the Lannisters but he didn't start the war. Tywin did, because Cat chose to arrest Tyrion, and Littlefinger had nothing to do with that, nor did he intend her to do something like that.

Afterwards he just sat back and watched things unfold.

He tweaked a little bit with Ned's arrest and execution, but the war that broke out after Robert's death also involved Renly and Stannis, and Littlefinger had pretty much nothing to do with their ambitions. If Ned's life and been spared, the war involving Stannis, Renly, Tywin, and Balon would have still continued.

There isn't even a good reason to believe Littlefinger wanted to create war. He clearly knew a war would come - just like Varys knew that - but his interest is his personal aggrandizement and rise to power - whether that happens in peace or war is irrelevant.

His genius is that he gets along splendidly with everybody - the Tully daughters, Ned, Cersei, Renly, Joffrey. And he is charismatic enough to befriend and work with Tywin and the Tyrells, too. The only red rag to his is Stannis, for obvious. He can't work with him, so he can't become king.

Anybody else can as long as they are nice to him.

If you look at his manipulations and how effective he one tends to forget that he never actually created any animosity. He just fueled them.

[Geddus]

3 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

That would have been fine if she had travelled in public  with a standard sized escort. The fact that she was travelling in disguise, accompanied by only Ser Rodrik; a noble would normally travel with more than just one old knight, and people would wonder why the Master at Arms would be the one to escort Cat to the Riverlands when he has hundreds of guards who could do that in his place instead of abandoning his duties at Winterfell. The way she was travelling and trying to remain hidden would give the impression that she'd been doing things in secret...which would alert the Lannisters; who she suspects of murdering Jon Arryn and trying to murder her son twice.

Yeah, you and @Ygrain are right, I didn't think about the escort. But I still can't see why would the Lannisters knowing she's going somewhere incognito be so dangerous, especially because she already thinks they're conspiring against her family. And even if we assume that she's right in that regard and that knowledge could potentially pose a threat to Ned and their daughters, she decides to do something instead which will certainly be very dangerous to everyone.

3 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I'd ascribe it to Tyrion's fragile ego - Tywin has crushed it so many times that Tyrion probably wouldn't confide to him even if his life depended on it (which, in a way, it did). 

But that's not confiding, that's something very dangerous to their family which at that point Tyrion in clearly trying to protect, keeping it to himself serves no purpose and doesn't really make sense. Also, I find it hard to believe that no one asked why the hell lady Catelyn decided to arrest the dwarf.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger fueled animosities - which were already there - between the Starks and the Lannisters but he didn't start the war. Tywin did, because Cat chose to arrest Tyrion, and Littlefinger had nothing to do with that, nor did he intend her to do something like that.

Eh? 

LV, I'm going to assume someone hacked your account and wrote that sentence. 

Quote

“I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King’s Landing.” He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. “It’s mine.”

“Yours?” It made no sense. Petyr had not been at Winterfell.

“Until the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day,” he said, crossing the room to wrench the dagger from the wood. “I backed Ser Jaime in the jousting, along with half the court.” Petyr’s sheepish grin made him look half a boy again. “When Loras Tyrell unhorsed him, many of us became a trifle poorer. Ser Jaime lost a hundred golden dragons, the queen lost an emerald pendant, and I lost my knife. Her Grace got the emerald back, but the winner kept the rest.”

“Who?” Catelyn demanded, her mouth dry with fear. Her fingers ached with remembered pain.

“The Imp,” said Littlefinger as Lord Varys watched her face. “Tyrion Lannister.”

 

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Eh? 

LV, I'm going to assume someone hacked your account and wrote that sentence. 

Continue on and read what Littlefinger says Cat and Ned should do about the whole thing - absolutely nothing. He doesn't want them to act upon it - and even if he lied there and wanted them to act upon it chances are very small that he wanted them to arrest Tyrion.

For all we know he may have wanted them to make a smarter move against the Lannisters - one that would have ended up with them in the stronger position rather than the Lannisters.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Continue on and read what Littlefinger says Cat and Ned should do about the whole thing - absolutely nothing. He doesn't want them to act upon it - and even if he lied there and wanted them to act upon it chances are very small that he wanted them to arrest Tyrion.

For all we know he may have wanted them to make a smarter move against the Lannisters - one that would have ended up with them in the stronger position rather than the Lannisters.

Sure.

I was simply responding to your comment that LF had nothing to do with Cat''s arrest of Tyrion. I generally agree with the rest of your post, but to say LF had nothing to do with Cat''s decision is incorrect.

To the bolded: I was not speaking to whether or not he wanted the arrest, just that he did have something to do with it.  

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Sure.

I was simply responding to your comment that LF had nothing to do with Cat''s arrest of Tyrion. I generally agree with the rest of your post, but to say LF had nothing to do with Cat''s decision is incorrect.

To the bolded: I was not speaking to whether or not he wanted the arrest, just that he did have something to do with it.  

Oh, okay, when you phrase it like that you are correct. I was meaning he had no direct hand in it nor is there any indication he wanted it to happen, or could foresee it.

And there is no indication that he wanted Tywin and Jaime to crush the Riverlords or that Ned stupidly told Cersei what he had found out, resulting in Robert's murder.

The brilliance of Littlefinger is that he could work with pretty much anyone. That's his talent. What he couldn't do was to allow Ned to make Stannis king. That would have been the end of his career (and perhaps even the end of his life).

[Light a wight tonight]

On 4/12/2018 at 9:23 AM, Dorian Martell's son said:

It wasn't his planning. It was his opportunism and LF is very adept at running with a situation

exactly

bingo, and it paid off. He is now the lord of harrenhal and protector of the vale 

LF is certainly the best plotter in the story, better than Varys in the way he can change plans quickly when the need arises. He seems not to have major long term goals, though, just gathering wealth and power and wreaking revenge on the Houses that he thinks have wronged him, especially the Tullys and Starks. 

Recently Lords of Harrenhal seem to have the same survival rate as Margaery's husbands, and he's Protector of the Vale at the pleasure of the Vale lords, who don't support him unanimously .

[Sourjapes]

Perhaps people are often mistaken for being architects of disaster not because they actually plan every detail, but are experts at adapting and improvising as events unfold?