The Transporter

Roose Bolton vs. Stannis Baratheon

39 posts in this topic

Sending the Freys and Manderlys out was smart. Better to get some use out of them fighting Stannis than keep them together in the castle and them to come to blows. Not to mention less mouths to feed, so a longer siege for Stannis if he manages to even reach Winterfell.

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On 4/15/2018 at 10:46 AM, Agent Orange said:

It was right to send out the Manderly troops.  Manderly is a traitor.  Less mouths to feed.  You do not want to continue feeding your enemy.  He should have kept the Freys inside.  Ser Hosteen is a good man to have in battle and the Freys are good soldiers

The battle is more than just numbers, logistics and commanders. It's about politics. Roose's support stems from the Lannisters giving him power and him having more surviving troops than anyone else in the North (with the exception of White Harbour?). But his support is tenuous and no one else in the north likes the Frey's. If you send White Harbour out themselves, you risk the losing the already questionable loyalty of every other northman in the castle. And when White Harbour simply joins with Stannis, what happens then?

His idea of sending them both out was in theory OK, but he misread just how bad the situation is. The Frey's can't join Stannis but White Harbour not only can, but are highly likely to. Roose probably thinks he can buy White Harbours loyalty by keeping Wyman a hostage, but Wyman just doesn't care about his own life and I'm pretty sure his men know that. He also thinks he has the loyalty of Barrowton and Karhold, but I suspect Lady Dustin is having second thoughts while the Karstarks are definitely against him.

I think Roose has actually completely misread the situation and should lose. His best chance would be to pretend to send out the Frey's the next day, but then murder every non-Frey, non-Bolton in Winterfell. But he won't because he doesn't realise just how dire the situation is.

 

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On 14/04/2018 at 11:10 PM, The Transporter said:
  1. Who has the advantage in the battle of ice?
  2. What can Roose Bolton do to maximize his chances of winning?  Plot out a battle strategy for the Boltons.  
  3. Do you agree with the manner in which Roose handled the Freys and the Manderlys?  Was it smart to send them out into battle together?  What are the pros and cons of this strategy for Roose?  

1 - Stannis. He has more men, a defensive position and his men must win or die. The Freys have more cavalry but won't be able to use it, and retreat is an option for them. 

2 - Let no one back in the castle. Even if Stannis was to win the battle with 0 casualties he would then need to storm a strong castle defended by an amount of men roughly equal to his own, most of whom will be better equipped and trained than his clansmen and smallfolk. I expect he'll need to bluff or deceive his way into the gates if he's to win, but if Roose just seals up the castle until the storm ends he can't do that. 

3 - I would probably send the Freys out a day earlier than the Manderlys with orders to set up camp and ambush the Manderly force when they're far enough from the castle, and only then proceed against Stannis. 

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On 14.04.2018 at 6:10 PM, The Transporter said:

It seems both armies are in trouble based on the latest info that we have.  The time lines are difficult to work out and it could very well be as the Pink Letter stated, Roose Bolton defeated Stannis Baratheon.  It is also possible that the letter is inaccurate and the battle has yet to begin.  I have my own opinion and will share that shortly.  I want to hear yours first.

  1. Who has the advantage in the battle of ice?
  2. What can Roose Bolton do to maximize his chances of winning?  Plot out a battle strategy for the Boltons.  
  3. Do you agree with the manner in which Roose handled the Freys and the Manderlys?  Was it smart to send them out into battle together?  What are the pros and cons of this strategy for Roose?  

1. Stannis had 5000 men at the start of his march on WF and his numbers were growing, he lost some men to cold but he still outnumbers the Frey+Bolton force of ~2,5K near 2:1. Half of his men are better trained and equipped for winter than any other in 7K

The majority of the other half is Stannis' men and survivors of Rodrik's army, all trained, equipped and experienced.

Stannis also turned the terrain to his advantage.

2. Nothing. Best course would be sitting in the castle but tensions are too high for that. If he was to send out a larger army to meet the numbers of Stannis, it'd be better but again risky.

3. Send anyone and everyone but the Freys and his own men. He may very well be sending people out that will turn their cloaks and join Stannis  but at least they will be doing this outside of the walls.

Sending Ramsay out to die was a good move though. He dies and no more problem for new heirs Walda will pop out.

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What if people inside Winterfell plot to kill Roose and his army on sleep? He doesn't have only his men inside. Everyone but the Dreadfort people wants him dead.

He is too cautious and probably knows this, of course. But, people would probably rather try to just kill him or die in the process than fight for the man who had a hand in murdering at least one member of their family/army at the Red Wedding. 

 

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5 hours ago, Makk said:

I think Roose has actually completely misread the situation and should lose. His best chance would be to pretend to send out the Frey's the next day, but then murder every non-Frey, non-Bolton in Winterfell. But he won't because he doesn't realise just how dire the situation is.

 

He has already sent the Freys out, together w/ the Manderlys. And each group left through a different gate. 

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On 14/04/2018 at 11:46 PM, Agent Orange said:

Tyrion bested him in the battle for king's landing.  

Tyrion was key to the victory, but he was on the verge of winning until Renly's Ghost rode to the rescue.

Stannis is widely regarded as a commander. His victory against the Ironborn at sea suggests great talent.

On 14/04/2018 at 4:10 PM, The Transporter said:

Do you agree with the manner in which Roose handled the Freys and the Manderlys?  Was it smart to send them out into battle together?  What are the pros and cons of this strategy for Roose?  

The obvious con is that he can't trust the Manderlys. If they turn on him they will lose the battle. The pro is that, if they are going to betray him, better they do so outside Winterfell than inside. 

Roose was really forced into that decision by circumstance. His original plan was let Stannis freeze while his own army was tucked up warm in Winterfell. Whoever killed Little Walder set the two most powerful factions of Roose's uneasy alliance against each other. He couldn't keep both of them inside, and probably decided that if havoc was going to break loose it was best away from him. If he'd just sent the Manderlys out, then they could have simply gone wholesale over to Stannis, just the Freys, and the Mandelys can still turn on him at a crucial moment.

I don't think Roose has much hope for success in the sortie, he was just emptying out the troublemakers.

 

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9 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

He has already sent the Freys out, together w/ the Manderlys. And each group left through a different gate. 

It was discussing the question of whether sending them both out was a good idea.

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5 minutes ago, Makk said:

It was discussing the question of whether sending them both out was a good idea.

Ah sorry, I clearly misunderstood your post. 

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On 4/17/2018 at 9:24 AM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Tyrion was key to the victory, but he was on the verge of winning until Renly's Ghost rode to the rescue.

Stannis is widely regarded as a commander. His victory against the Ironborn at sea suggests great talent.

Good talent, but great?  I'm not so sure.  

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5 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

Good talent, but great?  I'm not so sure.  

Stannis is widely regarded as one of the best commanders in Westeros. He's right up there with names like Tywin Lannister and Randyll Tarly.

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6 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

Good talent, but great?  I'm not so sure.  

Well, I suppose it depends where you put the line between great and good. Defeating the Ironborn at sea is particularly difficult. 

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7 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

Good talent, but great?  I'm not so sure.  

Based on what? Do you have a secret scale of values in the westerosi Navy? Did Victarion tell you something GRRM doesn't know about this battle?

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On 17/04/2018 at 8:58 PM, Makk said:

It was discussing the question of whether sending them both out was a good idea.

I think this might be from the Winds chapter so i’ll Tag it to be on the safe side

Roose was also (incorrectly, as it happens, but he had no way of knowing this) banking on the Karstarks in Stannis’ host to turn cloaks. Factoring that into his decision it doesn’t seem such a bad move after all.

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1 hour ago, Nowy Tends said:

Based on what? Do you have a secret scale of values in the westerosi Navy? Did Victarion tell you something GRRM doesn't know about this battle?

Why quibble over a term that is subjective? Not everyone is going to have the same criteria as you.  For example we hear of Tywin's victory during Robert's Rebellion as being great

Marillion bounded to his feet. "My lord of Lannister!" he called out. "I would be pleased to entertain you while you eat. Let me sing you the lay of your father's great victory at King's Landing!"

which is something I disagree with. 

Some may judge battles were larger sides beat smaller sides, such as Stannis against the Ironborn or Tywin on the Blackwater, as being merely 'good' rather than 'great'. 

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9 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Marillion bounded to his feet. "My lord of Lannister!" he called out. "I would be pleased to entertain you while you eat. Let me sing you the lay of your father's great victory at King's Landing!"

which is something I disagree with.

It's euphemism. 

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3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

how so? 

Because

4 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

which is something I disagree with.  

 

Sometimes this forum baffles me in ways ....

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