The Frey civil war.

[Maximus Greyjoy]

 What do y'all make of this? The Frey Civil War. Would most of the other houses just sit back and let these bastards kill each other off? While Littlefinger and the Knights of the Vale makes a run to Harrenhall and take advantage of the situation and take The Twins away from the remaining Freys.

[Mat92]

1 hour ago, Maximus Greyjoy said:

 Would most of the other houses just sit back and let these bastards kill each other off? 

Yes, I suspect that this is Littlefinger's advantage. Pretty much all of Westeros has zero respect for the Freys, they won't really care too much if they are getting killed off/dying. Some smart people will see that this creates opportunities to potentially gain households/etc from Frey's married into other families, but I suspect that now Winter is here, everyone's focus is starting to shift, let alone with everything else going on.

For everything that Littlefinger is, I think it's pretty clear that he loved Cat - and I think it's easy to assume he's going to take revenge on the Frey's wherever he can, assuming it doesn't throw out whatever plans he has.

The chapter where he discusses complicated lines of succession with Alayne/Sansa shows that he very much understands or has a plan for what's happening with the Freys. The connection with Harry the Heir alone shows he's planning something with The Twins (heir to the Twins married to heir to Winterfell is a pretty powerful match), and if Black Fish stakes a claim to Riverrun (not that he's really in a position too yet) then that makes Robin the heir, and if HE dies then it goes to Littlefinger. That means Littlefinger gets control of the Vale, Riverrun, currently has Harrenhal and possibly has significant influence at the Twins and Winterfell. 

Of course, the books being what they are this is unlikely to all happen, but that's a pretty solid plan on Littlefingers part, one that would kind of fly under the radar until it's too late for most in Westeros.

In terms of the Frey Civil War specifically, I think they are their own worst enemy. Their infighting is definitely attributing to them getting killed off (and Stoneheart of course) - when Walder Frey dies it'll be pandemonium. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

4 hours ago, Maximus Greyjoy said:

 What do y'all make of this? The Frey Civil War. Would most of the other houses just sit back and let these bastards kill each other off? While Littlefinger and the Knights of the Vale makes a run to Harrenhall and take advantage of the situation and take The Twins away from the remaining Freys.

Of course not. Vassals wishing to gain more power will ally themselves with who they think will win. Deals will be made, favors called, alliances tested and blood will flow  

[Kandrax]

When i heard people talking abou The Frey civil war, it sounds to me that all of them, including kids, will start killing each others.

[Euron Lannister]

8 hours ago, Maximus Greyjoy said:

While Littlefinger and the Knights of the Vale makes a run to Harrenhall and take advantage of the situation and take The Twins away from the remaining Freys.

i think littlefinger would take harrenhal and riverrun, cause he has reasons for it, harrenhal is his and emmon frey thinks he should be lord of the riverlands.

the waynwoods have a reasons to take the twins, so they will do this.

i every case i think many new night's watch men will be created. or the tridend will be red

[Mat92]

4 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Of course not. Vassals wishing to gain more power will ally themselves with who they think will win. Deals will be made, favors called, alliances tested and blood will flow  

Do you think that the current state of events will temporarily distract people from intervening with the Freys though? Most of the big houses are tied up with stuff - Winterfell and the North expecting an attack (or preparing to), Lannisters and Tyrells playing games with one another, Dorne only just becoming active and are more concerned with the South/Kings Landing, the Greyjoys won't care and are busy pillaging the west coast. And that's not to mention everyone will be soon preparing quite heavily for Winter.

It's only really Riverrun (governed by Emmon Frey/Lannisters depending on how you look at it) and the rest of the Riverlands who would be immediately concerned right? I agree that everyone would be interested in these things, and that smaller houses with personal stakes would be especially motivated upon hearing of this stuff, but in terms of actually doing anything about it they might have little resources at their disposal.

Littlefinger likes to take advantage of situations like the current state of Westeros, and he has the Vale at his disposal. If he acts quick (like he does) he could enact whatever plans he has before the Lannisters can do anything about it.

TL:DR - yes people would be concerned/interested in the Frey "Civil War" but by the time they can actually do something about it, Littlefinger would have played his cards.
 

[Myrish Lace]

8 hours ago, Maximus Greyjoy said:

Would most of the other houses just sit back and let these bastards kill each other off?

Winter has come or will come really soon to everyone. Crown's control over the land verges on non-existent. There are three invasions into Westerosi heartland in the works. Apocalypse is coming. And Freys are spread all over the place, bound to fight Stannis and Brotherhood right now.

As much as they hate each other, I doubt Freys have the time to get together and start civil war - they are going to be killed piecemeal by their enemies in the North and all over the Riverlands long before that. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

2 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

i think littlefinger would take harrenhal and riverrun, cause he has reasons for it, harrenhal is his and emmon frey thinks he should be lord of the riverlands.

 

2 hours ago, Mat92 said:

Littlefinger likes to take advantage of situations like the current state of Westeros, and he has the Vale at his disposal. If he acts quick (like he does) he could enact whatever plans he has before the Lannisters can do anything about it.

I actually believe Littlefinger when he says he has no interest in making his claim to the Riverlands. The Riverlands are a complete mess, and getting entangled in them would mean competing with the Freys, taking on the Brotherhood, refereeing the Brackens and the Blackwoods, worrying about Tully heirs. Plus, actually having to find solutions to feeding a war-ravaged region through the winter. 

He wanted Harrenhal purely to make his marriage to Lysa possible. He has his claim to the Riverlands in his back pocket, and might use it in the future, but currently he's sitting pretty as Lord Protector of the region least damaged by the Wo5K, and that suits him well enough. 

[Euron Lannister]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

The Riverlands are a complete mess, and getting entangled in them would mean competing with the Freys, taking on the Brotherhood, refereeing the Brackens and the Blackwoods, worrying about Tully heirs. Plus, actually having to find solutions to feeding a war-ravaged region through the winter. 

that is the point, LF has the food from the vale and an army to defeat the chaotic factions, he could turn the riverlands from a mess into a bunch of loyal supporters very easy.

also with taking the twins he would have some northern prisoners he could use

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

He wanted Harrenhal purely to make his marriage to Lysa possible.

i highly highly doubt this, lysa loved him, she could have married him anyways. he wanted harenhal for other reasons, which are unknown for now. but when you look at the history you can see how important it was several times, and i guess it has something to do with this.

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

but currently he's sitting pretty as Lord Protector of the region least damaged by the Wo5K, and that suits him well enough. 

but this claim is challanged by the lords declarant, which could cause annother civil war if he doesn't common ground to work on, which for example could be giving the twins to lady anya's kin or reestablishing swetrobin's kin in Riverrun

[Stormking902]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

 

I actually believe Littlefinger when he says he has no interest in making his claim to the Riverlands. The Riverlands are a complete mess, and getting entangled in them would mean competing with the Freys, taking on the Brotherhood, refereeing the Brackens and the Blackwoods, worrying about Tully heirs. Plus, actually having to find solutions to feeding a war-ravaged region through the winter. 

He wanted Harrenhal purely to make his marriage to Lysa possible. He has his claim to the Riverlands in his back pocket, and might use it in the future, but currently he's sitting pretty as Lord Protector of the region least damaged by the Wo5K, and that suits him well enough. 

Yes LF has control of the Vale but for how long? LF hold on the Vale relies on Sweet Robin being a minor which wont last forever ALSO Sweet Robin might die soon leaving Harrold Harding(Arryn) in control of the Vale which he thinks because he holds the Waynewoods debt means hes in control this is not the truth, whats stopping Harry from taking LF head as soon as he becomes lord of the Vale? His word? I personally wouldnt trust it. Also the Vales highest form of nobility in the form of the Royces of Runestone want LF dead or at least gone and are working hard to do so. 

Know the Riverlands is already technically his and LF secondary ultimate goal is to Marry Sansa who btw has a huge claim to the RL threw her Tully blood, why would LF not fight to keep the Riverlands in his control the only kingdom he could possibly keep when the dust settles.

 

 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

18 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

that is the point, LF has the food from the vale and an army to defeat the chaotic factions, he could turn the riverlands from a mess into a bunch of loyal supporters very easy.

also with taking the twins he would have some northern prisoners he could use

Littlefinger isn't interested in putting the Riverlands to rights, he wants chaos. He may use the Vale's granaries to wield some control over the River Lords, but he has zero interest in actually having to govern them. Plus, winter is coming - better to hole up in the Vale than try to get control of a warzone. 

18 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

lysa loved him, she could have married him anyways

Possibly, but she would have had a hard time justifying marrying someone as low born as Littlefinger without his lordship of Harrenhal.

18 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

but this claim is challanged by the lords declarant, which could cause annother civil war if he doesn't common ground to work on, which for example could be giving the twins to lady anya's kin or reestablishing swetrobin's kin in Riverrun

Littlefinger's already beaten the Lords Declarant, who have pretty much disbanded. The only remaining challenger is Yohn Royce. He doesn't need to invade the Riverlands in order to stop the Vale descending into war, he stopped that with lies and Arbour Gold.

16 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

LF hold on the Vale relies on Sweet Robin being a minor which wont last forever

It will last for several years. The point of his gaining control of the Vale was to put him in prime position for when the realm descends into further chaos and the Targaryens invade. That's going to come much sooner than Robert's sixteenth birthday I reckon.

16 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

ALSO Sweet Robin might die soon leaving Harrold Harding(Arryn) in control of the Vale which he thinks because he holds the Waynewoods debt means hes in control this is not the truth, whats stopping Harry from taking LF head as soon as he becomes lord of the Vale?

Sansa? Also, I personally don't rate Harry's chances of living long enough to succeed to the Vale.

16 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Also the Vales highest form of nobility in the form of the Royces of Runestone want LF dead or at least gone and are working hard to do so. 

He's currently outsmarting the Royces at every turn. 

16 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Know the Riverlands is already technically his and LF secondary ultimate goal is to Marry Sansa who btw has a huge claim to the RL threw her Tully blood, why would LF not fight to keep the Riverlands in his control the only kingdom he could possibly keep when the dust settles.

Littlefinger's claim to the Riverlands may be exerted, but he has zero interest in doing it currently. His plans go way beyond making a shaky claim to Harrenhal which rests solely on a decree from Tommen. A claim based on the authority of the Baratheon/Lannister dynasty is built on sand. Littlefinger knows that there will be an attempt at a Targaryen restoration, his plans will take that into account. 

[Euron Lannister]

28 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Littlefinger isn't interested in putting the Riverlands to rights, he wants chaos. He may use the Vale's granaries to wield some control over the River Lords, but he has zero interest in actually having to govern them. Plus, winter is coming - better to hole up in the Vale than try to get control of a warzone. 

the question is, what is his intention. if he would end the chaos in the riverlands he would end up as the strongest lord in all of the seven kingdoms, because he would control two stable provinces, so no chaos would be needed there, but only if his intention grabbing power or if he wants to place sansa somewhere, cause as a half tully and quater whent the riverlands are the best place to get support for whatever he plans with her.

31 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Possibly, but she would have had a hard time justifying marrying someone as low born as Littlefinger without his lordship of Harrenhal.

he was master of coin at that time, that should hve been enough i think

33 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Littlefinger's already beaten the Lords Declarant, who have pretty much disbanded. The only remaining challenger is Yohn Royce. He doesn't need to invade the Riverlands in order to stop the Vale descending into war, he stopped that with lies and Arbour Gold.

the LD are silent for now, and maybe bellmore switched sites, but i think they are still a threat to him.

his rule over the vale is also supposed to end in less than a year iirc

 

as Lord of Vale and Riverlands he always has the power of the one province to stop the other one from betraying him, at least for some time

[Dorian Martell's son]

6 hours ago, Mat92 said:

Do you think that the current state of events will temporarily distract people from intervening with the Freys though? Most of the big houses are tied up with stuff - Winterfell and the North expecting an attack (or preparing to), Lannisters and Tyrells playing games with one another, Dorne only just becoming active and are more concerned with the South/Kings Landing, the Greyjoys won't care and are busy pillaging the west coast. And that's not to mention everyone will be soon preparing quite heavily for Winter.

It's only really Riverrun (governed by Emmon Frey/Lannisters depending on how you look at it) and the rest of the Riverlands who would be immediately concerned right? I agree that everyone would be interested in these things, and that smaller houses with personal stakes would be especially motivated upon hearing of this stuff, but in terms of actually doing anything about it they might have little resources at their disposal.

Littlefinger likes to take advantage of situations like the current state of Westeros, and he has the Vale at his disposal. If he acts quick (like he does) he could enact whatever plans he has before the Lannisters can do anything about it.

TL:DR - yes people would be concerned/interested in the Frey "Civil War" but by the time they can actually do something about it, Littlefinger would have played his cards.
 

There will be no frey civil war. The author does not seem to have that in the cards. I would personally like to see house frey decimated, but then again, winter is coming, and assuming the next book and the one after get published, the wall has to fall and the others invade south  

[Euron Lannister]

19 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

There will be no frey civil war.

what makes you so sure?

19 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

The author does not seem to have that in the cards.

how do you know? the frey factions are well established for it

21 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

but then again, winter is coming, and assuming the next book and the one after get published, the wall has to fall and the others invade south  

well there is a lot that can happen before the wall goes down, if it even does.

also it is possible that there will be an 8th book or even a 9th, all depends on george and how much he wants to write

20 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Also, this is a preston Jacobs video so it it a total waste of time 

when clicking on the video is a waste of time for you, how can you have enough time to write such a dumb hate post?

[Dorian Martell's son]

33 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

what makes you so sure?

There has already been one civil war in the south and one is currently in the north. An inter-family war of a supporting house will add nothing to the story. Their destruction seems far more probable. 

34 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

how do you know? the frey factions are well established for it

So what? After a major power play, and being the lord paramount of the riverlands, Walder has land and castles to keep his brood in line. 

36 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

well there is a lot that can happen before the wall goes down, if it even does.

Of course a lot can happen. But the entire story has been building up to the wall falling since the prologue in Game. 

37 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

also it is possible that there will be an 8th book or even a 9th, all depends on george and how much he wants to write

There is always the possibility that the series will not be completed, but we are not allowed to speculate on that in this forum 

38 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

when clicking on the video is a waste of time for you, how can you have enough time to write such a dumb hate post?

The post is ethereal, and the reader puts themselves in it, so if you feel it was a dumb hate post, maybe you are just being dumb and hateful. After all, you chose to reply to it. As for PJ, I have watches a few of his videos, and he makes a leap in every single one to make this theories work. That leap would be far more obvious if it was written out and could be analyzed line by line. That is why all these people make viseos instead of writing posts in forums like this one  

[Euron Lannister]

8 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

So what? After a major power play, and being the lord paramount of the riverlands, Walder has land and castles to keep his brood in line. 

the lord paramount is petyr baelish, not walder, and the whole civil war theory/speculation is based on the question of whom would inherit the twins after he dies.

11 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Of course a lot can happen. But the entire story has been building up to the wall falling since the prologue in Game.

Yes it does, but the story also has been building up Robb Stark winning the wot5k, which didn't happen.

i'm actually not sure if the wall will ever fall, although it's likely.

16 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

After all, you chose to reply to it.

because i have the time

and i think als this bashing of theorists (especially PJ) isn't worth it, he has his opinion, you have yours and until TWOW is out noone (exept for george) knows who is right and who is wrong. and at least he doesn't publish fAegon Blackfyre theory nr 600 or the 7th version of Bolt-On

19 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I have watches a few of his videos, and he makes a leap in every single one to make this theories work.

i think a little bit of boltness is needed to make a theory thats worth watching/reading cause otherwise it would be a simple a+=c theory which everyone can guess on its own

21 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

That leap would be far more obvious if it was written out and could be analyzed line by line. That is why all these people make viseos instead of writing posts in forums like this one

i doubt this, a video/spoken theory can analyzed line by line as well, maybe even better, because you can't put typos into spoken word.

and after all its imo the better medium to produce and consumate theories.

btw.: have you watched this video?

[Leo of House Cartel]

14 hours ago, Mat92 said:

For everything that Littlefinger is, I think it's pretty clear that he loved Cat - and I think it's easy to assume he's going to take revenge on the Frey's wherever he can, assuming it doesn't throw out whatever plans he has.

Yo, Mat92 - a great point, one I haven't really seen before.

You are totally correct that Petyr's love for Cat was/is genuine. Providing it doesn't mess with his current agenda, I could certainly see LF planning some nasty downfall for the Freys.

16 hours ago, Maximus Greyjoy said:

 What do y'all make of this? The Frey Civil War. Would most of the other houses just sit back and let these bastards kill each other off? While Littlefinger and the Knights of the Vale makes a run to Harrenhall and take advantage of the situation and take The Twins away from the remaining Freys.

An interesting question. While I can see various Freys making their own attempts at usurping Lord Walder, I'm not sure on the how-what-and-who of it all. A "Civil War" might be a bit of a confusing term for this situation, as I would imagine such a scenario would involve multiple parties, all vying for control.

Currently dealing with the BwB hanging various members of the family - as well as being hated by most small folk in both the RL and North - House Frey really should have enough reason to stick together. That said, we know the question of succession is a big deal amongst Lord Walder's brood (who wants to play Lord of The Crossing?), so some kind of "Lord Walder isn't protecting our family well enough, I should be in charge!" dialogue wouldn't be too surprising, especially given the advanced age of many of Walder's sons and grandsons.

Also, many of the Freys have a tendency to be less than savoury characters (Black Walder I'm looking at you). The idea of honour amongst the household must have taken a real hit after the events of the Red Wedding, so some kind of kinslaying machinations from certain Freys wouldn't surprise me.

One thing that could be very interesting is how the Frey women would deal with such a situation. It would seem that the patriarch of the family has treated many of his female relatives like chattel, to be sold off whenever a high price is offered. While this kind of thing is commonplace amongst the Westerosi hierarchy, not many other Lords have had eight wives.

Old Walder is 90 years old, with his latest bride being around 70 years his junior, as well as apparently being frail and timid - how might the younger female Freys view this type of thing? What would these women think of the fact that Walder has had seven wives die on him? While I can't be sure on their causes of death, Walder's long list of dead brides would suggest some foul play.

[Dorian Martell's son]

3 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

 

[Maximus Greyjoy]

LF being known as the man who pacified the RL would put him in a prime position for post war exploitation.While the various factions disenchantment and infighting grows the minor lords would be looking to someone,anyone to restore order and who will they look to after their pleas for help go unanswered from KL? 

[Kandrax]

5 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I would personally like to see house frey decimated,

Baby Tywin did nothing wrong.