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If Theon had died in place of the Karstark boys...


Canon Claude

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Catelyn’s miserable musings aside, would it really have changed much? Let’s say Jaime kills Theon instead of Tor and Ed Karstark before he’s captured. Nothing is stopping Balon Greyjoy from attacking the North now. Maybe he’s even angrier and more determined to make the North suffer with Theon’s death. The Ironborn still capture key points in the North, House Stark is spread thin trying to keep order between Ramsay Snow’s actions and the Ironborn invasions. Sure, Winterfell is spared, but Robb will still have to go north to liberate his people. Everything else happens as normal, so the Tyrells and Lannisters would still become allies and sweep the Riverlands. Roose turns traitor and gets Robb killed somehow, then goes north and slaughters the Starks when Tywin attaints them. The North tears itself apart trying to avenge House Stark or just attempt to endure. Stannis and Jon have an even harder time of things and die brutally, it’s all just as bad if not worse if Theon dies instead of the Karstark boys.  

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If Theon died, the Iron Born would not attack Winterfell. They all thought Theon was stupid to do that, their strength "comes from the sea." At best, the Iron Born stick to the coast and start pillaging. MAYBE Ramsey gets released to get the Bolton army, but Winterfell would be able to send men and wouldn't get attacked while doing so. Rodrik would still be alive in this example. This line of events also means that Bran does not have to flee because of the Iron Born taking Winterfell, and possibly wouldn't make for the 3ER. 

In terms of Robb, they capture Jaime but Karstark doesn't feel the need to try and kill him out of revenge. That causes more peace with Robb's camp, Cat doesn't feel the need to send him off with Brienne to protect him as he's her only bargaining chip for the girls (he's endangered with Karstark trying to kill him). In this situation Robb has less/no dissent in his camp, Karstarks don't leave, Cat doesn't get sidelined and he's got a way better chance of winning. Bolton possibly also wouldn't flip on the Starks while they hold Jaime hostage (although this is subjective). He still may have to respond to the Iron Born pillaging, but it wouldn't be anywhere near as damaging as them taking Winterfell. 

Anyway, all of the above is pure speculation. I would imagine that if Theon died instead of the Karstark boys it would result in an extremely different story.

Happy to hear why my above scenario is wrong though haha.

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10 hours ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Ramsay: "My Prince, the Ironborn are all over the North. Let me go to the Dreadfort and come back with a good number of men to defend your castle. After that, His Grace your brother may judge me justly."

How would he know about ironborns?

One thing, without fall of Winterfell, Jon would be dead, which means that none would alert Night's watch.

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Ironborn may not attack the North at all or even if they do, they'll do it much later. It is only after Theon comes with news from mainland Balloon Greyjoy weighs his options and decides to attack North. Even him releasing Theon gives an idea about Robb being weak.

Without the loss of Winterfell, Robb goes on taking the West without marrying Jeyne and Freys stick with him, Ser Rodrik wipe out Ironborn infestation, Roose doesn't turn his cloak at least for a longer while. Robb has the Strength to continue.

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Jaime Lannister kills Balon's last living son, and his response would still be to attack the enemies of those who killed his son? I'm not so sure. In Oddly enough, in Balon's eyes, the idea of Theon dying in battle would've elevated his esteem for him I think to the point where he'd at least consider taking vengeance on the Lannisters instead and driving the knife into the Starks back later. 

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5 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 It is only after Theon comes with news from mainland Balloon Greyjoy weighs his options and decides to attack North.

I don't know about that. When Theon arrives the longships are already gathered, and Balon seems to have already made up his mind about what he was going to do. 

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2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I don't know about that. When Theon arrives the longships are already gathered, and Balon seems to have already made up his mind about what he was going to do. 

Doesn't he send Cleftjaw and Asha after Theon comes? Not that it matters much.

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1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Doesn't he send Cleftjaw and Asha after Theon comes? Not that it matters much.

Yeah, he unleashed his plan after theon comes, but I got the distinct impression he had already made his decision.

Agreed that it doesn't matter much.

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