[Pre-ADwD Spoilers] Asha - Spoilers for ADwD

[Markus]

Krafus,

What you say is true, but going with Victarion would mean essentially abandoning his throne for several months, likely over half a year. Euron has blunted several possible rivals, but even so, he has seen firsthand that his grasp over the Ironborn isn't all that strong. Would he dare leave them to their own devices for a long period of time, especially when he has to suspect that the Redwyne fleet will arrive sooner or later?

Euron's priority are the dragons and the whole of Westeros, I think. Note that Euron once tried to hatch a dragon from a dragon egg. He may not care all that much about the Seastone Chair and the ironmen. It may merely be a means to an end for him. He needed power to get his dragons, and the kingship of the Iron Isles promised such power.

So I don't really believe that he would be terribly bothered by leaving the ironborn to fend for themselves for a while. They might well be defeated while he is away, yes, but he could figure that once he has dragons he won't need all that many men to achieve his objectives.

Besides, Euron may not be giving much consideration to other matters beside the acquisition of the dragons. He might well be obsessed and somewhat mad about the whole thing.

[Ran]

Markus,

If the uncles were left in charge by the Greatjon they might simply be exercising their proper authority, and not trying to usurp the Greatjon or his sons.

Perhaps I'm too suspicious. I don't think guys with bynames like "Whoresbane" are terribly honorable.

Leaving the north just before a major climax which would offer a sense of closure to the reader? Or do you perhaps have another climax for the north in mind?

We have been told we'll see a lot of Roose and Ramsay, true enough. I just don't know as to whether this necessarily means a final climax. Things might be a bit too neat and pat if Stannis basically conquers the North in this book, as it gets a major problem out of the way for him.

[Markus]

Ran,

Perhaps I'm too suspicious. I don't think guys with bynames like "Whoresbane" are terribly honorable.

I feel there is a difference between being terribly honorable and usurping the rights of relatives.

Moreover, the uncles are presented as old men. So any usurping would probably be done for the sake of their own children. But we don't know for sure if they even have any legitimate ones, and crucially there are two uncles. Who is going to rule between them? Whose children are going to inherit? Also, the fact that they seem to have joint command would seem to make it more difficult to pull off betrayal. We might need two dishonorable uncles instead of just one.

Mind, I'm not arguing that there is no potential for usurpation. I merely think that the things we know about the situation are not unambiguously pointing in this direction to say the least.

As to the byname "Whoresbane", perhaps I'm missing something but I'm not quite sure if we should read anything other than that Hother really, really doesn't like whores into it, and that he has acted on this dislike in the past to the detriment of whores. This doesn't necessarily make him a guy who would turn on his nephew and his children. They are not whores, supposedly.

I just don't know as to whether this necessarily means a final climax. Things might be a bit too neat and pat if Stannis basically conquers the North in this book, as it gets a major problem out of the way for him.

I said climax. Not _final_ climax. If Stannis were to win a major battle against Roose Bolton this wouldn't necessarily mean that all the Boltons are dead. One or both might get away alive and might be able to fortify him-/themselves at the Dreadfort. Both sides might suffer heavy losses so that Stannis might not have the men to take the Dreadfort by force, or even to enforce his rule against all the unwilling northmen.

Besides, even if Stannis were to succeed in the north, he would still be in a fairly weak position with regard to the Iron Throne. He would probably need some time to win more northmen and more wildlings to his side, and perhaps train some of them. A potential alliance with Asha and Theon would also take some time and effort to bear fruit in the form of troops. There would still be a long, long way ahead for Stannis at this point.

[Ran]

So any usurping would probably be done for the sake of their own children.

Speculative. They could do it just because they want to run things, no more, no less. We simply do not know.

I agree it's an unclear situation, but that doesn't stop me from finding them suspect. I'll be especially suspicious if they are personal recipients of rewards, marital alliances, etc. as part of their joining with Roose.

This doesn't necessarily make him a guy who would turn on his nephew and his children.

No, but a man who's bad in some aspects may well be bad in others. Again, we don't know. I have my suspicions.

I said climax.

Didn't I suggest that there might be a battle before Torrhen's Square with Bolton's forces? I would consider that climactic without necessarily being final.

Besides, even if Stannis were to succeed in the north, he would still be in a fairly weak position with regard to the Iron Throne.

Yes. As I said, the pickings are slim in the North. That's not only due to the small houses Stannis may hope to win, but it's endemic in the North. If there's more than 12,000 troops musterable there in the face of winter, I'll be amazed.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Would he dare leave them to their own devices for a long period of time, especially when he has to suspect that the Redwyne fleet will arrive sooner or later?

Euron is undisputably sending off the Iron Fleet to get the dragons, right? So since he's willing to sacrifice a considerable portion of his navy anyway, why should the additional ship make that much of a difference with the arrival of the Redwyne fleet? Maybe if there was a popular rival waiting in the wings to take over once Euron left, it would be a different story, but we've already seen that most of his rivals have been disqualified from the throne and presumably won't be accepted by the population.

[Ser Hippie]

I seriously don't understand that. You seem to be going to extremes Ser Hippie, that everybody must despise the Ironborn and would never put up with them.

That's not what I said at all. I said that the Tyrells, especially, would view Stannis even more harshly if he were to be seen as allying with the ironborn, and that the Lannisters would use it as propaganda against him. How is that 'extreme'?

But kicking Euron off his throne is hardly an act of friendship. Remember Balon's rebellion? Robert even left Balon in charge.

That was after Robert had defeated the ironborn and they were (ostensibly) no longer a threat. In this case, Stannis would be using the ironborn, different situation altogether.

People may not like the Greyjoys but they also don't like the Boltons or the Lannisters. They can't all be insane enough to think they must wipe all their enemies out.

? I'm talking about the Tyrells, or was at least. The Tyrells don't need to fight Bolton and are allied to the Lannisters. With the Arbor fleet moving north/west, there's no reason to think they'll suddenly call it all off just because Theon and/or Asha say they want to be friends.

I'm not sure what you mean by "major concessions"? Stannis gets Torrhen's Square without a fight while Asha gets some troops and the ability to put Theon in charge. A concession suggests he is losing something he already has. He doesn't have any power over the Ironborn, now he will have. He will have freed the North from the Ironborn in one move.

Btw, i'm not saying that TS is an imposing target but attacking the Ironborn will result in loses because they are brutal fighters. That's something that can be avoided. You even suggest that he can use Asha to convince Cleftjaw to surrender but Asha is not going to do this for no personal benefit.

Asha has no power once her troops are defeated - she had only 200 or so to begin with and now has fewer, probably not many at all. Theon is, as far as we know, still locked up in the Dreadfort, which is beyond the power of Stannis to take. Asha can offer Stannis the potential to bring the ironborn in on his side (and not against his Northern allies) but she's in no position to guarantee anything whatsoever, nor is it particularly likely she would be able to for some time. She needs Theon, needs to get back to the Isles, needs to overthrow Euron and stabilize things and then get back before she could even possibly do anything.

Stannis isn't stupid; he probably realizes that, and getting her to have Cleftjaw surrender TS is a useful "You do this for me and we can talk" type measure - it's something tangible Asha can offer Stannis in exchange for him risking his reputation/alliances to support a Greyjoy.

And Euron does have problems. He is faraway (and could be going further away), the Redwynes are returning with their fleet, Aeron hates him and they are been kicked out of the North.

1. Euron is still around, he sends Victarion to Dany to (paraphrasing here) bring her back to him.

2. If the Arbor fleet comes north, there's even less reason for the ironborn to want to help Stannis - if they're under attack themselves, how could they spare troops?

3. Aeron is missing and his influence didn't change things at the kingsmoot

4. The prevailing opinion seems to be in favor of continued raids/attacks on the Reach and south, where they can get more money/plunder. Even when Balon was in charge, the ironborn weren't all completely behind him attacking the North.

I doubt any of the families in the North much like their options. That's why the Starks will manage to return. Now people in the North may decide to switch sides but it wouldn't make sense to snub the Ironborn because you vaguely hope the Umbers will side with you. (If there are some hidden negotiations fine but we have no word of that and I find it unlikely that such subterfuge is happening).

It's not about hidden negotiations - it's that Bolton has given almost every house a reason to dislike him, which doesn't particularly bode well for him. I happen to agree that I think it'll be a Stark that finally brings him down, but that's another discussion, really. By my count,

(1) Bolton wasn't liked to begin with (he's weird, cruel, landhungry, etc.). His allies (Lannisters and Freys) are not well liked either, especially not after a war

(2) He betrayed the Starks, who seem to have been held in high regard

(3) He betrayed every other Northern house (Karstarks might have been an exception, but he betrayed Harrion and his uncle apparently has thrown in with Stannis in exchange for Winterfell)

(4) Cerwyn, Tallhart, Manderly all had men at Winterfell that were killed by Ramsay - Manderly also was fighting Ramsay during the Lady Hornwood incident

(5) People might put two and two together about Bolton's conduct during the war - how he constantly put the Glovers and Tallharts and Umbers and so on in harm's way.

Again, that's not to say that these houses will switch sides, only that there's good reason to think they would given the right circumstances. I don't think Stannis is in a position to do that, barring a victory over the Boltons or something like capturing the Dreadfort, but the possibility is there.

Markus brings up an interesting point about Jaime allowing the RW hostages to go free. It seems a very dangerous to let the Greatjon go though. Jaime might change his mind once he realises that Stannis is a threat again.

I'm not sure if Jaime would really think it through that deeply, he's not exactly politically adept and he's already mucked up the peace settlement at least once already (offering Joy to the Westerlings after she's already promised to a Frey). It sort of fits with his general conduct to undo some of the rest of it.

After all, he tells the riverlords he'll have their hostages ransomed/freed, but when he goes to the Freys, he tells them the crown needs all their prisoners (I wonder who else from the North the Freys have). Given that the Umbers apparently have bent the knee (whether faithfully or merely to cover their collective asses), it wouldn't be surprising if they let the Greatjon go, dumb as that might be.

---

@Ran

Re: Whoresbane

It was my impression that he's more of a lecherous old man rather than anyone truly deceitful or powerhungry, per se. Personally, I wouldn't like someone who behaved like he did (grabbing the serving girls and so on), but I don't know if we can project that behaviour as representative of him being willing to usurp his nephew or great-nephews.

In that light, his 'alliance' with Bolton is actually the smart thing for a caretaker-type to do; it protects the Greatjon without really committing the Umbers to fighting anyone they particularly care for, since they still get to fight wildlings as it stands.

[Ran]

since they still get to fight wildlings as it stands.

Well, yes. They're going to fight Stannis because he's using wildlings, apparently. If he ends up beating them, maybe they'll turn a new leaf no doubt, as most lords do. But I don't quite get why people feel a need to equivocate on behalf of the Umbers. They are allied with the Boltons. That's a problem for Stannis, regardless of how weak their alliance may be.

[Ser Hippie]

Maybe I (or the others, though I won't speak for them) aren't making my point clearly then...I don't think the Umbers will definitely or even probably dump the Boltons for Stannis, I'm just of the opinion that if Stannis can present a reasonable alternative to Bolton (i.e. has a chance to win the North), it's entirely possible they would switch sides, especially if Jaime really does release the Greatjon. To me, the Umber-Bolton alliance only lasts as long as it has to for the Umbers, who really have no reason to like Bolton either, it's just they have even less reason to like Stannis at the moment, plus their lord is a hostage.

[Ran]

That fits with what I said way back when, that people will switch sides when it's pragmatic for them to do so. I'm not an absolutist.

That said, Stannis is not going to look like he has a shot to win the North until he starts beating Bolton on the battlefield.

[urizen]

On another note, I wonder what will come off Jaime's intention to ransom all the captives which were taken at the Red Wedding. The Greatjon is among them, and was also said to be held at the Twins. A potential release might be too late to influence events in the north if they are to be resolved in ADwD, though.

I interpreted this episode that the Riverland lords were ransomed and realesed while the Northern Lords simply were transfered from a Frey dungeon to the royal dungeon so that the Throne could make use of the hostages rather than letting Walder Frey reap the benefits.

[The Pale Griffin]

I too took the name Whoresbane as more of a symbol of an oversexed man than an evil man. I would however, wonder what the Greatjon's other sons, especially his new heir, have to say about arrangements in the North.

However does anyone else think that the last name Crowsfood may be foreshadowing?

[Padraig]

Way too much to comment on now but i'll mention a few things.

1. Euron is still around, he sends Victarion to Dany to (paraphrasing here) bring her back to him.

2. If the Arbor fleet comes north, there's even less reason for the ironborn to want to help Stannis - if they're under attack themselves, how could they spare troops?

3. Aeron is missing and his influence didn't change things at the kingsmoot

4. The prevailing opinion seems to be in favor of continued raids/attacks on the Reach and south, where they can get more money/plunder. Even when Balon was in charge, the ironborn weren't all completely behind him attacking the North.

Ser Hippie, read all the discussion. People like Markus and the Fat Man have talked about Euron going after Victarion. You can't keep repeating what Euron said and ignore that people have pointed out that Euron may be lieing.

You also missed my point the Redwyns. Asha didn't support the attacks on the Reach. If she and Theon gained control, they would presumably pull their troops from the Shield Isles. Thus they wouldn't be under attack anymore. (I doubt the Tyrells will race off in pursuit).

And things have changed since the kingsmoot as I have already described. Aeron's continued opposition will make Euron's fall possible.

Prevailing opinion? Whose? Euron and Victarions? I'm talking about Theon and Asha taking over and convincing the Ironborn that they haven't a chance of holding the Shield Islands. They need to hold what they have (and that is the Iron Isles) or else they will be invade again.

I hope that is clearer.

[Guest Other-in-law]

There is a list of signatures (or a drawing of a giant in the case of an Umber) of Boltons supporters in the initial letter to Asha.

I love that..the Westeros equivalent to signing with an X. "Me Umber! RAR!"

[Ser Hippie]

Ser Hippie, read all the discussion. People like Markus and the Fat Man have talked about Euron going after Victarion. You can't keep repeating what Euron said and ignore that people have pointed out that Euron may be lieing.

Do we have any reason to think he actually has left though? I'm not saying he's rooted to the Isles, but I see no reason to assume he's not there now other than "he might go after Victarion".

You also missed my point the Redwyns. Asha didn't support the attacks on the Reach. If she and Theon gained control, they would presumably pull their troops from the Shield Isles. Thus they wouldn't be under attack anymore. (I doubt the Tyrells will race off in pursuit).

Even if the Shields are abandoned (which in turn alienates the ironborn who are "lords" there), do you think Mace Tyrell will simply let bygones be bygones? His bannermen have suffered casualties, and (more importantly) his pride has been damaged by having his own lands be attacked while he and his sons were unable to stop it. Why, exactly, would he care if Asha or Theon is in charge instead? What would they be able to do to mollify his feelings? (And, again, that even presumes they are able to take the Isles in the first place)

Also, Mace is not a friend to Stannis at the moment - he refused to support him after Renly's death, his men were the ones that one the Blackwater, and he has imprisoned or killed Stannis' supporters and envoys. Why wouldn't he strike north, especially if he sees his two enemies working hand in hand, especially since with the absence of the Iron Fleet and Victarion, the Isles are much more vulnerable.

And things have changed since the kingsmoot as I have already described. Aeron's continued opposition will make Euron's fall possible.

Aeron is missing and presumed dead by Tris Botley (according to your own post on page 2). And, again, I don't see why Theon would be a more appealing candidate to the ironborn than Euron (even if Theon ever makes it back to the Isles), especially with the Tyrells probably showing up sometime (relatively) soon.

Prevailing opinion? Whose? Euron and Victarions? I'm talking about Theon and Asha taking over and convincing the Ironborn that they haven't a chance of holding the Shield Islands. They need to hold what they have (and that is the Iron Isles) or else they will be invade again.

When Euron makes his speech about bringing the dragons (Dany) over, the ironborn there don't shout "But we're losing in the North" or "By the Drowned God, we will lose our wooden fort!", they call to attack the reach to get (gold) dragons, etc. etc. Asha's force in Deepwood Motte is not an "official" force; it's made up of outlaws/rebels.

Further, if the Isles are indeed threatened (as I believe they will be by the Arbor fleet), why would any of the ironborn want to run off to help Stannis?

---

The big thing you're missing with all this is how they're going to get Theon out in the first place. The Dreadfort is on the entire other side of the North and is known to be an extremely strong fortress (and Stannis has few troops and presumably little in the way of heavy siege equipment). In order to free Theon, have him and Asha get to the Isles, take command and send any kind of assistance back, Stannis is going to need a lot of time. If the Boltons have already secured the Neck, that's something he doesn't have.

[Markus]

Ran,

Didn't I suggest that there might be a battle before Torrhen's Square with Bolton's forces? I would consider that climactic without necessarily being final.

You mentioned something like that but you seemed rather negative about it. I would certainly agree that a battle between Stannis and Bolton at Torrhen's Sqare suggests itself somewhat and would be a fitting climax.

urizen,

I interpreted this episode that the Riverland lords were ransomed and realesed while the Northern Lords simply were transfered from a Frey dungeon to the royal dungeon so that the Throne could make use of the hostages rather than letting Walder Frey reap the benefits.

Yes. I certainly didn't want to suggest that the northern hostages will be ransomed to families which are of doubtful loyalty in the eyes of whoever rules in King's Landing. The question is if it's believed that the lords who've signed on with Bolton and fought with him at Moat Cailin have done enough to earn the release of their relatives.

If we take the Riverlords as an example, one can see that they haven't exactly done all that much to prove their loyalty to earn their relatives back. In fact, Jaime seemed sure that they weren't all that loyal. On the other hand, there is Manderly who had to execute Stannis' envoy. In any case it seems as if these hostages won't play a significant role for what happens during ADwD.

[Ran]

Markus,

Sorry. I wasn't negative, it was just a sudden thought that I hadn't given much consideration before throwing out there. It seems to me that the timeline would certainly allow for it.

OTOH, there's the whole Theon thing. What if ADwD ends with a daring raid to free him? That might be climactic as far as the reader is concerned, without doing much of anything to bring a resolution to events in the North.

[Ser Hippie]

How far into ADwD is this chapter, though? Deepwood Motte is pretty far from the Dreadfort...unless Stannis has a second (much smaller) force to do the deed. Maybe Old Nan could help them out.

It would be a nifty end to the book (the whole "Will Theon make it to Asha/Stannis before the Boltons get there"), but damned annoying to have to wait for resolution

---

I had a question - Roose has 5,000 troops with him, right? Well he had 3,500 at the Red Wedding, so who are the other 1,500? Are they other Boltons that didnt' go to the RW for whatever reason, or from other houses?

[urizen]

Yes. I certainly didn't want to suggest that the northern hostages will be ransomed to families which are of doubtful loyalty in the eyes of whoever rules in King's Landing. The question is if it's believed that the lords who've signed on with Bolton and fought with him at Moat Cailin have done enough to earn the release of their relatives.

I imagine any northern lords held hostage will be kept imprisoned until the North is settled and Roose firmly in control.

Considering that Asha broke/twisted her ankle and took a nasty blow to the head I think we can rule out a quick sneakattack on the Dreadfort in ADWD by Asha ( If as hinted this chapter takes place late in the book).

[Ran]

Ser Hippie,

It's a late ADwD chapter, and apparently George said it would take place some time after "The Reaver". We're talking maybe a month or two prior to the end of AFfC and probably about that same amount of time prior to the end of ADwD, give or take a month, as GRRM has said that ADwD may extend somewhat beyond AFfC in terms of time frame.

I agree it probably wouldn't be the whole army doing this. I'd say that if a mounted force was dispatched to the Dreadfort to try and bust Theon out, they could make the trip in around 3 weeks -- just enough time for the ending of the book, actually.

If it's the whole army, it might be a month to a month and a half.

Actually, it leaves open the possibility of something like a dual climax, with a battle for Torrhen's Square and a raid on the Dreadfort happening roughly concurrently.

[Markus]

One of the things which is still up in the air somewhat is what Dagmer Cleftjaw has been up to.

Was he sitting tight at Torrhen's Square all the time or was he up to something, perhaps? Like a daring raid on the Dreadfort with the BoB and his garrison away at Moat Cailin.

On another note, one has to wonder how we're going to "see a lot of Roose and Ramsay". A Theon flashback with Ramsay. But what else?

Even a battle at the end of ADwD between Bolton and Stannis might not quite qualify as "a lot" of the Boltons if we won't have more than one PoV covering it. Though we might get an Asha PoV leading up to the battle and a Davos PoV saving the day for Stannis when he arrives with troops. Or the other way around. Or even a Theon PoV saving the day if he was sprung out of the Dreadfort by Dagmer.

Other possibilities to justify the "see a lot" of them comment would be that Theon has gone with Ramsay for some reason, or that Davos comes into contact with the Boltons prior to an eventual battle against Stannis.