A Dance with Dragons Release Discussion, Part II

[Padraig]

Hm. Are we actually sure that he feels that the mini-POVs are droppable in a way that is different from the regular POVs? I mean, has Martin said something to that effect?

Not sure. I believe most people think that Victarion will turn up in aDwD but he doesn't seem to have a POV chapter.

He was asked this kind of question before. Somebody said he could just drop a POV character and he said something like "Sure. Or I could just kill them". Followed by gleeful laughter.

Theon was dropped as well of course, although he probably will make a reappearance.

And yes, if GRRM had written a 5 year gap, then I think it could have worked. But he is a good enough author to realise it wasn't going to work, so he didn't write it.

[mormont]

Hm. Are we actually sure that he feels that the mini-POVs are droppable in a way that is different from the regular POVs? I mean, has Martin said something to that effect?

I don't think so, but that is the impression I've got. The mini-POVs exist for a purpose. If they could only drop out through death, then this wouldn't really be true and they would effectively be actual POVs.

[cosnik]

I know this is off topic but your sig makes me want to gush mormont. So excited about the new album, Far Cry sounds like they have gotten in touch with their roots.

I have a feeling there are going to be some surprising deaths in the next installment. He was a little too nice in Feast.

[mormont]

GoB: personally I felt Vapor Trails was one of the best albums Rush have done, ever. But I'm absolutely stoked about the new one, plus this line aptly sums up my life atm.

Back on-topic, I agree there are some big deaths in the offing, but not necessarily in Dance or at least not until the end. I think the reason Feast did not really have anything like that was that (obviously) no big deaths were planned for the five-year gap, and the events in Feast largely covered those: Dance could well be much the same.

[Eddard Stark]

Legend I heard was a pretty good book I was planning on getting it myself. Also The Prince of Nothing Series and The Dark is Rising series.

Dude, what the fuck is up with your avatar - that is the grossest damn picture I've ever seen.

DK

[Calibandar]

Werthead

There's beating a dead horse and then there's scraping the last layers of flesh from its carcass. Cali, GRRM did have 35% (at best) of the book done by that point

There is no dead horse here Werthead, but there is continious disagreement. I've let this pass by a couple of times when you stated it, but to be blunt, you're particularly incorrect in this case. You keep saying across the threads that he didn't have anywhere near half the material done when he made the announcement, or a good while later whe he made new projections in 2006. But this is nothing more than your personal interpretation, which happens to conveniently apologize for GRRM.

I will continue to mention this as long as you keep poining out to people the very opposite. GRRM said he had 500/600 pages done when he he published feast for Crows and he said that ADWD be done by 2006. He also said that "it is halfway done".

We have not heard GRRM go back on that Werthead, which is why your oft repeated interpretation is so curious. We have heard GRRM say that he has done "some rewriting" of early chapters. Yet you claim that, and I quote:

He chose to totally rewrite most of it, thus eliminating the advantage of having those chapters in hand when he finished AFFC

Which is a falsity. GRRM did not provide us with the info that he has rewritten most of what he had already done by the Summer of 2005. Again, we only know that he did "some rewriting". We don't know if that means he rewrote 10% of the half he had left over when he published AFFC. Or if it was 50%. Or if it was even more than that, as you claim. So don't claim that as a fact.

It's dubious if you want to convince people who haven't been following GRRM's progress these sort of things, but don't expect me to believe it, because I've been there too, and what you say is simply factually incorrect. And since you are normally very straight with facts, this is disappointing to me.

This is not about bitterness so why bring it up? There is no discussion about how disappointing GRRM's lack of progress is. There is simply a poster who makes a comparison to Scoot Lynch, to which I respond, like everyone else. There is nothing wrong with stating the obvious, which is that GRRM is not going anywhere with even a modicum of speed. Does it bother you personally that someone says GRRM will probably not finish this series? Because that's what it looks like.

Again, we do not know how far GRRM is at the moment. It is true that all the signs indicate that he has actually progressed very little with writing Dance since he handed in AFFC. However it is also true that he has mentioned he has "rewritten some chapters to make them stronger". That's what we know, because GRRM has been deliberately vague about his progress in his updates, in fact he's stopped giving any. So your "all the material he had already written but which was left over when he finished AFFC part 1 has now gone to the thrashcan and has been rewritten" line is simply grabbed out of thin air and I find that objectionable.

[Werthead]

Cali, there seem to be some points here which we agree on. These are as follows:

1) That GRRM said when he finished AFFC that he already half of ADWD completed.

2) That GRRM said ADWD would be out one year after AFFC.

In relation to point 1), GRRM was incorrect. Simultaneously with this announcement he also said that he had 500 MS pages ready for ADWD. He also said around the same time that ADWD would be 1200-1300 MS pages. 500 MS pages is not 50% of 1200, obviously, but it is perhaps close enough to make saying 'half' more acceptable and easier than saying 'more than a third but less than half'. He later changed his forecast of ADWD's length to 1400-1500 MS pages if he could squeeze in the POV characters from AFFC to address their cliffhangers (so as not to leave fans waiting another 3 years+ to find out what happened to them). At this time (i.e. now, not in May 2005 when the split was announced) those chapters he had left over from ADWD suddenly become a lot closer to one-third of the length of the book than one-half.

In March 2006 he then confirmed that all five of Jon Snow's POV chapters he had completed for the pre-split AFFC had been rewritten and subsequently he has done additional generalised rewriting. You are correct that perhaps I have oversold this fact. However, if one of the three primary POV characters in the book has had 100% of his completed material rewritten, I would argue that this is a significant (but as you say, perhaps not a majority) amount of reworking done on completed material.

As regards point 2), ADWD was very clearly not released in October 2006. You have pointed out repeatedly that GRRM estimated back at the end of 2005 that it would be out by then, and it wasn't. Well, that's what happens. I anticipated his estimate would be accurate, and then his later revised estimates would be, and they weren't. I was disappointed. I moved on.

The key problem is that you constantly use GRRM's statements from two years ago that have long since been supersceded by the evolving situation as if they are some kind of immovable Biblical text. They were estimates. They were wrong. GRRM has said these estimates were wrong, which is why he isn't giving any more out.

Unlike yourself, I acknowledge that these estimates were made in a fair spirit of optimism, probably brought about by finally finishing AFFC after five years of stressful work, which later turned out to be mistaken. It was not a conspiracy designed to piss off loyal readers of the series, as you seem to consistently infer.

It's dubious if you want to convince people who haven't been following GRRM's progress these sort of things, but don't expect me to believe it, because I've been there too, and what you say is simply factually incorrect. And since you are normally very straight with facts, this is disappointing to me.

Yes, you are very happy to come up with facts that prove your negative position. You are less willing to acknowledge those facts that contradict your position and you are certainly unwilling to acknowledge or accept the simple, basic truth that what GRRM said two years ago no longer applies. The situation has changed.

Does it bother you personally that someone says GRRM will probably not finish this series? Because that's what it looks like.

Aside from it being borderline slanderous (since you are basically saying you do not believe GRRM will fulfil his financial contractural obligations to his publisher), your position is rendered less tenable by the HBO deal. He has already said that the signing of the deal makes finishing the last two novels before they catch up with the TV scripts a priority. This obviously makes completing the series more likely than it was before the deal was signed in January.

[stonetools]

frankly, the best thing about the HBO deal is that it will light a fire under GRRM ass to get the series done.

I can imagine someone from HBO sitting GRRm down and saying:

" George, you either get the next installment out by next year and the whole series done by 2011 or you can kiss the TV deal and the money goodbye.

I dont care if you have to give up conventions, football, or sex with your wife but get these books done!"

Will it work? Its not certain but the prospect of losing a million dollar payday is a powerful incentive.Unromantic, but true.

[KazigluBey]

Ugh. I'm going to go with my gut reaction, and say that ADWD will come out in 2009. Let's be reasonable, people, he's not going to be writing any faster. He wont' wrap up the book in a matter of months, his writing process has turned very slow and plodding since ASOS came out. I will expect each book to take 5-6 years, because GRRM is simply not the same "hungry" and obscure writer that he once was. He has so much on his plate with the ASOIAF games, toys, TV shows, etc. that his writing is probably getting pushed to the back of his list of priorities.

[Isabel]

Ugh. I'm going to go with my gut reaction, and say that ADWD will come out in 2009. Let's be reasonable, people, he's not going to be writing any faster. He wont' wrap up the book in a matter of months, his writing process has turned very slow and plodding since ASOS came out. I will expect each book to take 5-6 years, because GRRM is simply not the same "hungry" and obscure writer that he once was. He has so much on his plate with the ASOIAF games, toys, TV shows, etc. that his writing is probably getting pushed to the back of his list of priorities.

I read in the dutch magazine 'eclipse' from the dutch publisher of GRRM that they think it will be completed in 2007 and published 2008. But ofcourse that doesn't say anything;)

[Stark Raving Mad Wolf]

I read in the dutch magazine 'eclipse' from the dutch publisher of GRRM that they think it will be completed in 2007 and published 2008. But ofcourse that doesn't say anything;)

That ties in well with the Borders computer and Amazon.co.uk which both have ADWD set for April 08. I'd say thats the latest we'll see it.

Hopefully the fact that GRRM has been quiet of late means he is working hard on the book!

[The Wolf Maid]

Well, I'm hoping it comes out on 2008. That's my best estimate so far. Very much content on waiting for it. (ok, maybe not very much)

[Faceless Man of Braavos]

It's been almost a month since we've heard from GRRM on his blog... either he has slipped into writer's block induced depression or he is writing his ass off and is in too much of a groove to blog.

Let's hope it's the latter.

[Red Templar]

I've been thinking the same thing. I have a gut feeling that he's in a groove and getting close. Nothing else to base this on but instinct, however, so if it doesn't happen anytime soon I absolve myself of any blame.

[Tediz]

He just updated his blog saying that it's a very real possibility that ADWD won't be done by the time the Japanese WorldCon rolls around. That's during the first part of September, so any hope of a release before March 2008 is now officially dashed ;_;

[Stark Raving Mad Wolf]

Thats a damn big update though. Thats the most insight he has given in a while. Atleast it shows he really is trying but judging by his words it has been tough on him.

I really do think its because of the split which screwed things up royally. Once he gets onto to Winds of Winter I do think it will be easier as he doesnt have to try and match timelines etc. So if he knows he wont be done by September - then he must have a lot to do still.

Another good sign is that he most likely will cancel his Japan World Con which means he really has to finish it this year - so April 08 is still my prediction. Good thing he got an assistant to take away all those menial chores and allow him to concentrate more.

[Stark Raving Mad Wolf]

BTW looks like all the posters on his live journal are telling him to go to Japan "we dont cate - worth the wait" etc

[Atreides]

meh I wish he'd just write the series and then deal with the other assorted stuff that goes with it...just get the hardest part out of the way first.

[Caligula_K]

Usually I belong in the camo that says "let George travel, let him live his life, etc.." but at this point, a two month vacation would kind of be a slap in the face. Sometimes you have to just sit down and do your job, even if it is slightly painful- and when he's done the book, he can congratulate himself by Japanning all he wants.

[Stark Raving Mad Wolf]

Thats the way I see it. He just needs to sit down and get it done. He can then treat himself to Japan etc after ADWD is done and before he sits down to do TWOW. That book should be easier to right as he wont have to deal with the split. I cant believe all those on the live journal urging him to go. Just let him make up his own decision.