A Dance with Dragons Release Discussion, Part II

[Caligula_K]

Excellent point. If he put out ADWD tomorrow we'd spend the next three years whining about how we spent three years waiting for a book that felt rushed.

Nobody is asking that George finish it tommorow. We'd just like to see George working on it- he can take his time as long as he's actually trying.

[Padraig]

Nobody is asking that George finish it tommorow. We'd just like to see George working on it- he can take his time as long as he's actually trying.

Surely from his blog its clear that he is trying?

Surely WorldCon doesn't last 2 months?

He does explain all this in his blog entry. GRRM doesn't like travelling by aircraft. Taking a few 15 hour trips (no real idea how long it takes to get from New Mexico to Japan) to go back and forth between the 2 countries would not appeal. If he is going to visit Japan, i'm sure he'd like to do it in one trip.

[Calibandar]

Re: Editors

I don't think they have much power and pressure over GRRM at all. I think his editors can jump high or low and it won't make much difference to GRRM because he doesn't have a contractual obligation to release the books then and then. And if they were to make life really difficult for him and started upping the pressure ( which they won't , because that is bad business), he could threaten to change publishers.

Anyway, what is good about the update is that:

a) He's showing a very clear willingness to make genuine sacrifices. He loves going to cons like no tomorrow. He loves the fact that he has visited Worldcon annualy for such a long time. If he really doesn't go to Worldcon, which he now says would be unacceptable if ADWD isn't finished, then that is a good move on his part, because that would be a big interruption. And we have already heard him say in previous updates he can't get any writing done away from home.

GRRM suddenly seems very realistic. He seems like a guy who awoke from a deep slumber and found that his major work was nowhere near as complete as he thjought it would be. That realization is important I think.

C) the update does show that he seems to have got more work done by actually staying home and trying to write for a month, than the way he went at it before. It wasn't as great a work month as he'd hoped, but still a good one. Looks like this the right way after all.

That said, I'm not so sure GRRM will follow through on his plan to not go on this extended Asia trip. But I'd be happy to be proven wrong on that one in due time.

[Benjen]

I also see it the encouraging side of it.

1. He's made some progress in recent weeks, and through difficult territory.

2. He's putting measures into place to try and increase his productivity

3. He's focused on DwD, and appears to be fully engaged in working on it.

4. Finishing DwD is becoming more of a priority to him than his travel plans

Best news I've heard from GRRM in months.

[Humble Asskicker]

I think it's awesome that he's no longer personally responding to fans' emails. Each time I read an update about fan correspondence, I have to think, "Thanks, asshole. You interrupted writing time on Dance so we could find out what the land mass of the Summer Isles is. Great job."

A PA should do wonders.

I do feel kind of bad for him that he can't spend time in Asia, as I have no doubt he would have a blast there. But for the sake of actually seeing this book done, I'm glad that GRRM is no longer twiddling his thumbs. He's making an effort now, however much he probably hates doing so. I agree with those who have said that with the HBO deal, he's found that he can no longer pretend that this mammoth, unfinished series of his doesn't exist. If he wants the big paychecks from HBO, he has to write. And HBO paychecks kick the shit out of paychecks for board games and paraphernalia, so that definitely has his attention.

The only unfortunate thing about his update - and it truly is unfortunate - is that I'm now totally convinced that he's lost the fire for his series and I doubt it will ever return. I think he has the talent to still make it excellent, but it will be nowhere near as good as it would have been had he not had those difficulties post-SoS. I fear that we won't be able to see the same brilliance of Storm again in this series.

[Ghlade]

This is good news, for all the reasons Calibandar said. Even though he's clearly struggling, he also seems to be making a real effort to get beyond all the distractions and grapple with the next phase of the story.

[Werthead]

On the subject of editors: GRRM's contract with presumably both his UK and US publishers was for three books, IIRC. After delivering ASoS, I have no idea whatsoever what the contractual situation is. Generally speaking, once an author becomes a multimillion-seller with good visiblity and high sales, as GRRM now has, the publishers leave off, since frankly they're main interest is the money and as long as that rolls in, they don't have a problem waiting 1 year or 3 years.

However, Voyager, despite publishing successful authors like Feist and Hobb, do not have a huge stack of authors they're constantly rolling out, like Gollancz and Orbit. Any delay from one of their three biggest authors (and GRRM is probably the second if not the biggest seller for them by now) would induce headaches in their figures, especially if it drifts into the next financial year (after April next year). Voyager are probably wishing that the Tolkien contract was with them rather than with HarperCollins' main arm. That is pure speculation though. Again, the situation with Bantam I am unaware of.

Whilst it is very promising that he thinks he can finish the book if he skips the Asia trip, I would urge caution. We thought something similar when he announced skipping some cons in February to concentrate on the book, and that did not result in completion.

OTOH, as Pod said, to get the book out in the UK before the end of 2007 (it's too late for the USA regardless, I'm afraid) he'd have to finish before the end of July, and even then it would be very tight. After the end of July passes it becomes likely that the earliest the book will come out is March 2008 in any case, giving GRRM several months' breathing space (until the middle of October, by my reckoning) before the book will have to be delayed again. So yes, it now looks more likely that the book could make it out in March-April 2008.

All of this is based on the fact that AFFC needed a 5-month editorial turnaround between submission and publication, and that UK publishers normally do not publish a book between late November and late February or so to avoid it getting trampled in the Christmas rush (when store discounts are at their highest and publication profits are as a result minimalised). Obviously if ADWD needs a shorter editorial period, or Voyager decide to damn the torpedoes and publish the book a week before Christmas anyway, the situation could change.

[Faceless Man of Braavos]

I have a hunch that this series will never again reach the heights it acheived in A Storm of Swords... it will still be good, but I'm thinking A Feast for Crows will be more representitive of its future quality. It really seems to have become a CHORE for GRRM to finish this series off... hope I'm wrong and ADWD proves to be the best in the series.

[Kingslayer]

It really seems to have become a CHORE for GRRM to finish this series off...

The fallout from that wretched split probably accounts for this feeling. I think- I hope- that Books 6 and 7 will be easier to write.

[Padraig]

I think its clear that GRRM feels under pressure. Whether its from himself or his publishers is not that important.

a)He loves going to cons like no tomorrow. He loves the fact that he has visited Worldcon annualy for such a long time.

Do you have to make it sound so wrong for GRRM to have interests?

GRRM suddenly seems very realistic. He seems like a guy who awoke from a deep slumber and found that his major work was nowhere near as complete as he thjought it would be. That realization is important I think.

Oh come on. Surely its been clear from his previous updates that he is well aware that he is late producing this book. Logically, the later he gets the more willing he is to look at all his options.

C) the update does show that he seems to have got more work done by actually staying home and trying to write for a month, than the way he went at it before. It wasn't as great a work month as he'd hoped, but still a good one. Looks like this the right way after all.

He always planned to stay home this month. Like he has stayed home many other months.

I think it's awesome that he's no longer personally responding to fans' emails.

That's not actually true...what he said...

I may also have him take over some part of my correspondence and emails. I have been very reluctant to do that, since I value the contact with my fans and like being accessible to them, but I've have reached the point where that simply may not be possible any longer. Still, it's hard to let go, at least for me. We'll see how this all plays out.

And considering how vague the HBO plans still are, I wouldn't be sure this has anything to do with his message.

[Wouter]

I wonder if Martin is going to put in extra chapter for some AFFC POV's or not. He seems quite close to the end, but still no word at all about this. What do we think, will he drop this to get the book out, finally, or is he trying to put them in?

[Humble Asskicker]

I may also have him take over some part of my correspondence and emails. I have been very reluctant to do that, since I value the contact with my fans and like being accessible to them, but I've have reached the point where that simply may not be possible any longer. Still, it's hard to let go, at least for me. We'll see how this all plays out.

Ah! Pod, you're right. I guess we see what we want to see. Hell's bells.

Well, at least some is better than none.

[Regina]

In regards to those who fear that the writing quality is slipping, I don't think anyone should panic just yet. George was kind enough to read a new spoiler chapter at Boskone, and it was as exciting as anything in the earlier books, imho (my feeble attempt at an outline in the ADWD forum doesn't begin to describe how good it was).

As to the release date, I'm not even going to try to speculate, lol.

[Victarion Steel]

But remember last time what was it march? when he was thinking about canceling a trip to boston or NY or somewhere on the east coast. people on here seem to think if he cancels a trip he must be expecting to be close to done. So lets hope thats true for Worldcon maybe he expects to finish by august, september or october. With a spring 2008 release that sounds good to me.

[Caligula_K]

Surely from his blog its clear that he is trying?

I definitely think he is, and I'm not knocking his work schedule now. I am knocking the idea of a two month vacation during the writing process- as I said, I want George to live his life and be able to go on vacations, but at this point, I think he needs to continue doing what he's doing, and I think its very responsible of him to do just that. And then, when he's done, he can congratulate himself by vacationing in Japan.

[Padraig]

I wonder if Martin is going to put in extra chapter for some AFFC POV's or not. He seems quite close to the end, but still no word at all about this. What do we think, will he drop this to get the book out, finally, or is he trying to put them in?

Very good question.

[mormont]

GRRM suddenly seems very realistic. He seems like a guy who awoke from a deep slumber and found that his major work was nowhere near as complete as he thjought it would be. That realization is important I think.

I think that GRRM has for a long time realised that ADWD was not going to be as easy to write as he initially thought, and that his updates for at least the last six months have reflected that. A lot comes down to how you read them, I suppose, but I don't see any really 'sudden' change here. He';s been realistic for a while - certainly since he stopped giving target dates.

C) the update does show that he seems to have got more work done by actually staying home and trying to write for a month, than the way he went at it before. It wasn't as great a work month as he'd hoped, but still a good one. Looks like this the right way after all.

As I said earlier, I took the opposite from that - that he had had a month to work solidly and hadn't got much more done than he had in previous months, interruptions and all. His update talks about 'rewrites' but not much new material, and my general impression is that this update doesn't mention much more in the way of progress than earlier ones.

Funny for me to be the pessimist and Cali the optimist, but there you go.

[aeu]

His update talks about 'rewrites' but not much new material, and my general impression is that this update doesn't mention much more in the way of progress than earlier ones.

That's exactly what I thought when I read his post. "He's frustrated because he cannot figure out where to go from here. He's waiting for the inspiration to strike so that he finds a way to tie up the story lines, but it doesn't happen, so he spends his time rewriting / fine tuning the old material."

[Rockroi]

A year ago, it would never have dawned on me that DANCE would not be done by the time the Japanese worldcon rolled around,

-George RR Martin, June 25, 2007 Update on "Not A Blog"

I want a show of hands on this one: Who read that sentence and didn't openly question this man's ability of self-critique (ie- didn't look at the screen and say "You're Fucking Me, Right")?

It never DAWNED on you that Dance would not be done by the Worldcon? George, right now, I am just hoping you finish Dance by the end of the Bush Administration (odds: 5 to 1). How could this man- who KNEW how *cough* "deliberate" he was in writting A Feast For Crows (A book Martin himself described as a "bitch")- say with a straight face that it never DAWNED on him that he woudl ONCE AGAIN be aggonizingly late with this book?

I guess I am just a little taken aback that a man who is so obviously intelligent would have such little self-realization

[Calibandar]

....shows hands....