A Dance with Dragons Release Discussion, Part II

[Piper]

I think the cause for the delay of ADWD is GRRM's writing philosophy. Unlike, lets say, Tolkien, GRRM does not know exactly how to get somewhere. I've heard him describe it once as: "I know I'll be driving from Chicago to San Francisco. I know which routes to take, but I don't know where I'll stop, which hichthikers I'll take along the way, where I'll sleep. etc."

I also thought that was a clever analogy when he used it. We also have to take into account that he may have driven from Chicago to San Francisco before, he's never really taken a road trip like this before. This is like starting in Montreal and trying to get to LA, knowing you have to make stops in NYC, Tampa, Chicago, Seatle, and Detroit, but you have to hit Seatle before you Chicago, and NYC after Tampa. It's a daunting task.

The bigger part is connected to the question whether GRRM REALLY knows how to get to the end of his story. I'm convinced he knows how it's going to end, probably which characters will die and most probably the most important events that will lead to this. I dont think though, that he knows which route each of his POV-characters will take until they reach these significant events.

Also a good point. I hope this bodes better for production of the later books, when in addition to (hopefully) being past the difficulties caused by the 5 year gap, he'll be writing more the events that he's planned out from the start. *knocks on wood*

[stonetools]

I think the cause for the delay of ADWD is GRRM's writing philosophy. Unlike, lets say, Tolkien, GRRM does not know exactly how to get somewhere. I've heard him describe it once as: "I know I'll be driving from Chicago to San Francisco. I know which routes to take, but I don't know where I'll stop, which hichthikers I'll take along the way, where I'll sleep. etc."

With other words, the overall plot has to be filled with details, with life. In a complex world like the world ASOIAF plays in, details can have a huge impact, though. They can alter events significantly or can make certain plot-developments extremely unrealistic. Therefore, GRRM by now has to keep a whole world with its own history and logic in mind. This is, in my humble opinion, only the smaller part of the problem.

The bigger part is connected to the question whether GRRM REALLY knows how to get to the end of his story. I'm convinced he knows how it's going to end, probably which characters will die and most probably the most important events that will lead to this. I dont think though, that he knows which route each of his POV-characters will take until they reach these significant events.

As an example which could be directly connected to the delay of ADWD: GRRM knew from the start that Dany would end up ruling Meereen for a while. The next station in his big scheme for the overall plot (which he has probably made many many years ago) is that Dany lands in Westeros. Now there's a huge gap between these two events - probably the events which were once covered by the five-year-gap. What makes the situation more difficult is the fact that GRRM has begun interweaving half a dozen other story-arcs with Dany's. Some of these unifications were probably intended from the beginning, others "grew" while GRRMs worked on the first three books (I even think its possible that something was added there while writing AFFC). He knows that at the end of the series of arc-unifications, Dany (and probably several other POV-characters) will land in Westeros. Perhaps he even knows how each party will interfere with Dany. All the rest most probably still has to be made up. This takes time, precise planning (considering the already laid background mentioned in the first paragraph) and most importantly, CREATIVITY.

The growing pressure, the significance of the stories background and the fact that he has been working on ASOIAF for over 10 years now probably all result in a lack of said creativity, which in the end leads to the delay to ADWD.

I admit that this is a rather pessimistic judgement of the situation, but the more I hear about GRRM's problems with ADWD (which are by now more than evident), the more I believe that the problem described above is the crux of the matter. Perhaps not as drastical as I put it, but in general it has a great contribution to the delay.

I additionally think that we'll here an announcment for an 8th book soon and that ADWD wont be done before 2009. I hope I'm wrong, though.

Agree again. If its going to take five years for Danys to get back to Westeros as originally planned, what the heck is Stannis going to be doing up at the Wall with his army in the meantime? Moreover, events are coming to a boil at Kings Landing. How can GRRM reconcile all of that? Its enough to drive a man into taking off and going to World Con...

I confess I dont know the answer and neither does GRRM, I suspect: Which is why the delay.

[Swordfish]

GRRM suddenly seems very realistic. He seems like a guy who awoke from a deep slumber and found that his major work was nowhere near as complete as he thjought it would be. That realization is important I think.

huh? This is the EXACT same stuff we've been hearing from him for years......

I will consider it a minor miracle if this book is out before 2009, and a major miracle if this series ever gets finihsed at all at this point.

[Padraig]

Agree with both the last two posts. FWIW. I believe GRRM got himself into a world of hurt when he abandoned the five year gap and has been having a hard time tring to write himself out of it.

He did spend a year trying to make the 5 year gap work. So its not like that option was a better one.

I don't think Dany is delaying the plot developing. Sure the dragons have got to grow and be trained but its GRRM's world. They can grow faster than expected and somebody can appear to train them. GRRM can make both happen with a sweep of his pen. The only thing he couldn't change was the ages of the characters and that's why he wanted the 5 year gap. But i'm almost certain now that there will be no 5 year gap. Things are already beginning to boil again.

Certainly one of the problems with this book and aFfC is that they are supposed to set things up for the climax of the story. They play the role of aGoT for the first 3 book arc but he had a lot less in the air at that stage. Once this book is finished, I think we can be a lot more confident about the last 2 coming out quicker.