Eddard Stark Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Realistically, it'll be a November, 2007 release, or they'll wait till after the holidays. I think a December release would be too close to Christmas to actually capture the holiday sales uplift. I say Nov, 2007 or April, 2008. DK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerold Hightower Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 So he started with a third of the book already written two years ago and is nowhere near finishing now. You do the math. I would be very surprised if he handed in the manuscript before spring 2008. It's the AFFC wait allover again. Back then he was constantly "almost done", too. At leat people read that from his updates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 april 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spectralist Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 october '07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoP Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Sometime in 2008, probably late...i.e. around 3 years from AFFC and 8 years from ASOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llewellyn Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 May 3, 2008 (might as well go with my birthday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innominandum Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 We don't know it'll be 1300 pages. 1200/1300 pages was given as an estimate by George just after the split. As usual, ACOK length rather than ASOS length. I think the best we can hope for is that it isn't another half a book. It can't be "another" half a book, since there's not been one until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innominandum Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 So he started with a third of the book already written two years ago and is nowhere near finishing now. He started with 0% of the book already written. There are finished chapters, and there are draft chapters. Finished chapters from the pre-split AFFC did not become finished chapters for ADWD, but just draft chapters for ADWD. Which is not nothing, but certainly not "already written" either. I don't know where you read he said he was nowhere near finishing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swordfish Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 1200/1300 pages was given as an estimate by George just after the split. As usual, ACOK length rather than ASOS length. But didn't we hear that the last book had to be split because the publishers don't want to produce a book that long? Wasn't that one of the big excuses? It can't be "another" half a book, since there's not been one until now. Um... I don't know what else you call a book that even the author admits had to be split in half before it was published. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innominandum Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 But didn't we hear that the last book had to be split because the publishers don't want to produce a book that long? Wasn't that one of the big excuses? 1600+ pages would have been a real problem (that was the minimum he had before the split : 1500+ finished, 100+ more needed). 1200/1300 is between ACOK and ASOS, closer to ACOK. These are manuscript pages ok ? The figures are higher than in the actual books (I don't remember the ratio). Um... I don't know what else you call a book that even the author admits had to be split in half before it was published. The manuscript was split so as to have two normal-length books. There is not AFFC vol.1 and AFFC vol.2, all the storylines are complete, if some characters are in AFFC and others in ADWD, it's precisely to avoid having "half a book" (half-storylines). And would you count ASOS as 1/4th a book ? The original AGOT was split in two, and then again in two, the last part being ASOS. Still looks like a full book to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swordfish Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 1600+ pages would have been a real problem (that was the minimum he had before the split : 1500+ finished, 100+ more needed). 1200/1300 is between ACOK and ASOS, closer to ACOK. These are manuscript pages ok ? The figures are higher than in the actual books (I don't remember the ratio). The manuscript was split so as to have two normal-length books. There is not AFFC vol.1 and AFFC vol.2, all the storylines are complete, if some characters are in AFFC and others in ADWD, it's precisely to avoid having "half a book" (half-storylines). And would you count ASOS as 1/4th a book ? The original AGOT was split in two, and then again in two, the last part being ASOS. Still looks like a full book to me. Um... OK. Not sure why you are so defensive about this. If all the characters were supposed to appear, and then he had to re-edit the book to only make half the characters appear because it wasn't done/was too long, then to me that's half a book. I'm not really that interested in continuing to argue about what is becoming essentially an argument of semantics. Bottom line is that I still love the series, but he deserves some criticism in the very least for all the silly excuses he's put up on his website over the years. It's good that he feels like the kid telling his teacher that his dog ate the homework. he should, because I think a lot of us feel the same way. The fact that he can admit it at least shows he doesn't think we're complete morons. We'll just have to agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Bandito Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 I'll go with the comfortable mid november date. I said if before and I'll repeat. If his house is bothering him he can come live and write in my basement. I will supply him with all the mead and food that he needs. I live minutes away from Stephen King (who is a bit upset with his alma matar the University of Maine - long story) and the two can chill out and discuss movie deals. Harry Potter will sate me for two to three days, but after that I'll need Martin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 Wow, Werthead--thanks for that synopsis! Looks like I was quite uninformed; you've revealed my pessimism to have been unfounded, and for that I owe you thanks (even GRRM apologists don't mind some good news!). Well I'm interpreting the data from somewhat limited statements and announcements, so I could be disastrously wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupigis Posted March 31, 2007 Share Posted March 31, 2007 My guess - March 1, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheHalfman Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 For safe measure I'll say January of 09, that way I'll be happy when it comes out earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
true wolf Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 After enough guesses I will calculate the average date. Are there enough guesses yet JCrew? 3 pages seems like enough for at least a preliminary calculation. The only reson I played your silly game is for some advanced statistical analysis to be figured in in the end. Come on, what does the data tell you/us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spring Bass Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Hopefully: November, 2007. What I pessimistically think: Spring 2008. I can't really see him taking longer than this to get it released; it's not like he's completely starting over, or anything like that. On the bright side, if it DOES come out in Spring 2008, then maybe I can get started reading on it around the same time as The Great Ordeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innominandum Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Um... OK. Not sure why you are so defensive about this. Because calling a book "half a book" is an insult to the author, so I took the time to explain why saying such a thing was just wrong. That's all. What is strange is that you seem to be surprised to get replies when you do such statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 November 20, 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edda van Heefmstra Ruston Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 The announcement that he's done? Or the actual release date? Assuming the latter, I'm going to say March 11, 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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