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The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part III)


SFDanny

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So if you have a point, subtle or not, I'd ask you make it, and not try to quiz me to come up with the answer you want.

Then that reduces my maximum number of posts for one arguement. :) Let be more blunt then and let me define a few things.

When is the epoch I make reference to? Well, without an official timeline it's near impossible to say the start date, but let's use Dany as the bench mark. If she is the youngest of the three dragons, then at most you could argue is an 18 month period before she was born, when the other two dragons are born. In essence this means that the three dragons should be near the same[/] age and each birth is at most spaced 9 months apart. If Dany is the oldest dragon, then they could come 18 months after her. If she is the youngest, they could come 18 months before her. Really, the actually months apart isn't as important as the simple truth when you put the candidates next to each other. The actual epoch is most likely smaller then this 36 month window, but this is the largest conceivable time frame if the heads of the dragon are going to be similar ages. Bran, however, is around six or seven years younger than Dany so that's way below that 18 month window.

But let's just look at a sample set of various possibilities for the three Dragons.

Dany, Jon, Tyrion.

Dany, Bran, Jon.

Dany, Jon, Aegon.

In terms of matching ages, only Dany, Jon, and Aegon work well, but now, do they match 1.) child of ice and fire 2.) child of fire and 3.) child of ice. No they don't, unless Aegon is really a Stark (well, zombie Aegon might work).

One major problem with R+L=J is that it makes Jon the child of ice and fire, without providing a good candidate for the child of ice. I'm an advocate of the N+A=J theory, because it provides an adequate solution. Jon is the child of ice in that theory, while Lyanna's child is in the free cities. There are only a limited number of candidates for who is going to be "of ice", so if it's not Jon, no one else works without breaking the symmetry of "one of ice, one of fire, and one of both."

Artanaro

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Artanaro, you have just conjured up this requirement of symmetry in the three heads from nowhere. I don't think that the fact that Jon being the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna doesn't fit your requirement is any kind of argument that Jon isn't the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar.

Your whole made up requirement of symmetry is practically thwarted, anyway, because Tyrion is neither ice nor fire and he is the most likely candidate for the third head of the dragon.

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Artanaro, with all due respect I'm with Sarella on this one. The idea that the three heads of the dragon must fit your definition of symmetry, and that they must be of a certain age range all seems to be requirements you have come up with on your own that have little, if any, support in the text. If I'm missing the references that support the age and symmetry criteria please correct me, but I don't recall any of it.

I admit to being firmly in the camp of "R+L=J" but I like to think I'm open to all arguments. So far, you haven't persuaded me in the least.

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I think Ned's comment about "she was a Stark of Winterfell" has to do with her burial in the Wintercrypt. But if she was married to Rhaegar and gave birth to his only surviving male heir and Ned knew it, she should have been burned in the Targaryen manner.

This isn’t my impression, Who thinks of Cersie as a Baratheon? Catelyn is a Stark by marriage, but a Tully by blood,(she and others think of her as a Tully) this is why the marriages work as alliances too, they don’t cut of any family ties, to me that was all Ned meant, (and that Lyanna possessed a strong streak of Starkish traits the wolfblood etc).

Have you read anywere that women married into the Targaryen family shared their funeral rites?

In addition, it's been suggested on these boards that Elia was unable to have more children; I know that at some point someone in the books refers to her not being very strong. I'm sorry to be so vague. But if that's true, then the fact that Rhaegar wanted another child and Elia was unable or unwilling to give him one would give Lyanna some advantage in a polygamous marriage

Barristan said that, when Dany asks her why Rhaegar would have disgraced her, something like: “Elia was a good and gracious lady but her health were ever delicate.†And in the house of warlocks Dany sees what we presume is Rhaegar saying that “There must be one moreâ€.

I find it hard to believe that he made plans to uphold his and Lyanna's honour (with a secret marriage), when he didn't make plans to uphold Lyanna's life in the event of his (Rhaegar's) death, where she would have been killed or exiled by Aerys or Robert's men.

Why? Why taint your children with bastardy if you can avoid it? Lets say he has gotten her pregnant, that Rhaegar need another child to get his set. They can’t have all the hazzle with a state wedding given the complicated situation. (Quite possible it wouldn’t be allowed.) so as to legitimate the child, they says there vow in front of a heartree or something. It doesn’t have to be especially much work on Rhaegar’s part.

The more I think about it, the more and more stupid Rhaegar becomes. He didn't have to forsee The Trident and the sack, but I would have thought that he would plan for the possibility he might die, considering he had the hazardous job of commanding the Targ army in the biggest threat the Targs had ever faced.

Well. As I said, Rhaegar’s behaviour is inscrutable, IMO that is nothing in comparison to why he does nothing when he elope with her. If he has taken her without a note of explanation, he has insulted the Stark’s and Robert in a way that only can be answered with blood, but apparently he doesn’t make any attempts at damage control whatsoever, he just drops everything in his crazy dad lap and seems disappointed when everything blows up in his face.

Rhaegar survives, and wins the war. He now presents Lyanna to the world, says that they married in secret, and Jon is their legit son. Everyone has to just believe him. And they probably would. But he would have been better off waiting and having a public marriage (to dispell all doubt and have people accept his new wife better) and then legitimizing Jon (so then nobody can have any doubt that he is legitimate).

Except that the child would be born a bastard, and Lyanna would be a whore. A bastard can be legitimised yes, put it doesn’t change that their blood is still tainted. (See Aegon in the sworn sword).

Rhaegar dies, but Aerys wins the war. It doesn't matter what Lyanna says or who steps forward as witness, Aerys isn't going to accept her or her child. All Starks are traitors. Lyanna and Jon will be killed or exiled.

You base this speculation on exactly what?

The secret wedding doesn't benefit them either way. If Rhaegar had survived, he could have married and legitimized then. And as you can see, Rhaegar didn't survive, and the secret marriage didn't benefit Jon, and wouldn't have benefited Lyanna had she had lived.

Being legimate is always an advantage. And perhaps it’s not about cold calculations but “morals†that plays the part? In any case I don’t think it was about getting another heir to the throne but creating a dragonhead. Rhaegar seem to have thought his next child would be a girl to complete the triptych of Aegon and his sisters. females seem to have great difficulty to get their claim recognized in any case.

What this indicates above all, is that Rhaegar didn't plan for the event of his death.

Funny, giving Lyanna a shotgun wedding seems like someone who plans for eventualities to me.

So the people of Westeros think that the presence of the KG can be explained by any of the above. The people of Westeros concede that three true members of the KG could be doing something other than guarding their king. They know what the KG vows are, and that HT and Dayne were true knights of the KG. Yet they are willing to accept that they may have been guarding the TOJ even if the Targ heir wasn't there.

For all the people of Westeros knew these kingsguard could have been out of the loop, not knowing that Viserys was heir. As I have stated before, I find it remarkable that they don’t speculate more on Hightower’s and Dayne’s apparent passivity during the war in any case. Why don’t they receive any criticism?

The secret marriage in no way protected his rights. He is considered a bastard, and is now a man of the NW. What happened to his birthright that was ensured by Rhaegar and Lyanna's secret marriage?!?!

And to me that seems to have more to do with Eddard’s actions then anything else, had the kingsguard taken him into exile or a loyalist stronghold it would have been very different. sometimes thing doesn’t go as you plan them and it’s fairly clear that Rhaegar made string of errors in his interpretation of prophecy.

If Rhaegar won the war, he could easily have married Lyanna before she gave birth to Jon. Problem solved!

You are not aware of the fact that the war went or for years?

If they married secretly and Rhaegar lost the war, the secret marriage does nothing for them. Jon ends up dead or secretly hidden away and deprived of his rights.

Daenerys seems to be doing OK.

1) Rhaegar expected to win the war, and (2) that he was putting off dealing with Aerys until after the war. But you are trying to say that Rhaegar considered the possibility that he might lose the war and dealt with Lyanna straight away. That is completely inconsistent with what we know of Rhaegar's plans.

Why? Contingency planning is the bread and butter of strategy. Even if a general is confident in the present situation.

But, we know for fact that Lyanna wasn't willing to marry Robert and have him sleep with other women.

No we don’t. Lyanna says that Robert wouldn't be faithful to her.( Which seems unremarkable in itself, Most lord’s have women on the side.) I’ve seen no indication that she protested the engagement and given how her character is presented I have difficulty believing she couldn’t put off Robert’s suit has she chosen to.

The fact that Jon has ended up with none of his rights shows that Rhaegar didn't plan ahead.

Or it shows that he didn’t foresee the actual development.

Rhaegar was going to march into KL after the war and announce to everyone that he had secretly married Lyanna Stark and had a trueborn son by her during the war. Everyone was just going to accept this.

No everyone was going to accept that he had another trueborn daughter.

Sending her to Dragonstone, for example, would have been a much better idea. That way, if he died, Lyanna and Jon could flee with Rhaella and Viserys. That would also place 3 KG with his mum and brother - another good idea. Leaving Lyanna at the TOJ, marriage or no, did nothing for her in the case of his death.

Sending her to Benjen at Winterfell would also have been a good idea.

Or to the seat of House Connington or Starfall.

Or getting Varys to stash her away somewhere in KL.

Or maybe he couldn’t risk anyone finding out about her and her “conditionâ€.

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Enguerrand,

You are not aware of the fact that the war went or for years?

I should certainly hope they aren't aware of this, since it's not true. ;) The war has consistently been stated to have lasted a single year.

It's true enough that Jon seems to have been born more or less at the time of the Sack, so marrying his mother before he was born was unlikely to be a possibility.

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I should certainly hope they aren't aware of this, since it's not true. The war has consistently been stated to have lasted a single year.

Really? My impression was that it was closer to two. Especially given the distances and how many battles that were fought.

But if you say so, I guess I have to eat crow.

Anyway, I still find it hard to believe that Rhaegar would be so confident that he took for granted that he would wrap up the war before Lyanna's pregnancy was over.

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Enguerrand,

In recent posts I have agreed that a secret wedding would have been better than nothing for the child's rights. It is the idea that a secret wedding would have ensured the child's rights that I object to. And I also object to the idea that a secret wedding was the best that Rhaegar and Lyanna could do in their situation.

The thing that bugs me most, however, is the idea that Rhaegar made plans for the child's legitimacy in the case of his death, but didn't make plans for the child's life. I still haven't read any decent points that address this. All you (and others) seem to do is repeat that Rhaegar wasn't stupid, therefore he must have planned for the case of his death. I agree that Rhaegar wasn't stupid. But there is just no evidence that Rhaegar planned for the case of his death. If there is, then please point it out.

Here is the evidence that he didn't:

  1. He left mad Aerys in power
  2. He left Elia and kids with mad Aerys
  3. He left Lyanna and child with three men who would fight to the death rather than flee to safety
  4. He left no evidence that Lyanna is his wife and Jon is his trueborn son (if indeed they are)
  5. He left Lyanna in danger, marriage or no, should she survive the war

If Rhaegar died and Aerys lost the war, the best Rhaegar could have hoped for, given his plans, was a showdown at the TOJ where three KG hold off enemies until they are overwhelmed by pure numbers. That doesn't sound like planning ahead to me. The KG wouldn't have taken the child safely to the free cities. We have words from their own mouths saying that they do not flee, and we know for fact that they stood their ground rather than taking the child to safety.

If Rhaegar died and Aerys won the war, the best Rhaegar could have hoped for, given his plans, was that Aerys would take in Lyanna and child. Considering that Rhaegar feared for Lyanna's safety from Aerys BEFORE the war and BEFORE he killed Rickard and Brandon, I don't think it a good plan to trust Aerys with Lyanna's safey AFTER all of that.

Since we agree that Rhaegar wasn't stupid, then we must also agree that Rhaegar didn't make these stupid plans. So either Rhaegar had a smart plan but we have no evidence of it, or Rhaegar was so confident of victory that he didn't have a plan.

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Enguerrand,

In recent posts I have agreed that a secret wedding would have been better than nothing for the child's rights. It is the idea that a secret wedding would have ensured the child's rights that I object to. And I also object to the idea that a secret wedding was the best that Rhaegar and Lyanna could do in their situation.

The thing that bugs me most, however, is the idea that Rhaegar made plans for the child's legitimacy in the case of his death, but didn't make plans for the child's life. I still haven't read any decent points that address this. All you (and others) seem to do is repeat that Rhaegar wasn't stupid, therefore he must have planned for the case of his death. I agree that Rhaegar wasn't stupid. But there is just no evidence that Rhaegar planned for the case of his death. If there is, then please point it out.

Here is the evidence that he didn't:

  1. He left mad Aerys in power
  2. He left Elia and kids with mad Aerys
  3. He left Lyanna and child with three men who would fight to the death rather than flee to safety
  4. He left no evidence that Lyanna is his wife and Jon is his trueborn son (if indeed they are)
  5. He left Lyanna in danger, marriage or no, should she survive the war

If Rhaegar died and Aerys lost the war, the best Rhaegar could have hoped for, given his plans, was a showdown at the TOJ where three KG hold off enemies until they are overwhelmed by pure numbers. That doesn't sound like planning ahead to me. The KG wouldn't have taken the child safely to the free cities. We have words from their own mouths saying that they do not flee, and we know for fact that they stood their ground rather than taking the child to safety.

If Rhaegar died and Aerys won the war, the best Rhaegar could have hoped for, given his plans, was that Aerys would take in Lyanna and child. Considering that Rhaegar feared for Lyanna's safety from Aerys BEFORE the war and BEFORE he killed Rickard and Brandon, I don't think it a good plan to trust Aerys with Lyanna's safey AFTER all of that.

Since we agree that Rhaegar wasn't stupid, then we must also agree that Rhaegar didn't make these stupid plans. So either Rhaegar had a smart plan but we have no evidence of it, or Rhaegar was so confident of victory that he didn't have a plan.

Sarella, the evidence there was a plan for Lyanna and her child's safety is clear in the presence of the three Kingsguard. They are there to protect them. The fact they didn't do a very good job is another matter. From Rhaegar's point of view, he left Lyanna and child with the man he trusted most in the world, and two others of the best knights of the realm who were all sworn to defend them. That isn't a lack of planning.

I think your point #3 misses the strong possibility that they couldn't flee because of Lyanna's condition. She does, after all, die of something, presumably complications from childbirth. These men can't pick up Lyanna in that condition and leave. Perhaps a week later if she had gotten better they could have done just that. I also think some make way too much of the "we do not flee" boast. The Kingsguard is not supposed to flee in their duty to protect their King, but that doesn't mean they can't move or retreat if their duty calls for them to do so. These are not stupid men. Boastful and full of pride, yes; stupid, no.

In addition, your point #4 misses the strong possibility that the Kingsguard and others may be witnesses to a marriage. It is only the complete annihilation of the guards and Lyanna's death that makes it a real problem in proving the marriage. Even at this point we may well see others who stand forth as witnesses (Wylla, Jon Carrington, etc.) if the conditions are right. Surely it would make no sense for those who know the secret to announce their knowledge given the reality of Baratheon control over Westeros. If a day comes when that could change, is when we would expect those people to speak up (i.e. beginning very shortly in our story.)

I do agree with your first two points. I just don't think with the rebellion going on he was in a position to do much of anything about it.

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Do we know this, or is it an assumption based on Lyanna being in the Tower of Joy in the first place?

No we don't know this. Yes it is an assumption. Based not only on why she was at the TOJ in the first place, but also on the secrecy in general.

But I guess that could be explained by unawareness of the trouble they would cause if they just dissappeared for a while.

One of my arguments is if they did marry in a godswood, it would pretty much have had to been at harrenhal. But at that stage they had no reason to rush a secret marriage.

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SFDanny,

They could have split up, moving Jon and leaving Lyanna. One could go with Jon and two could stay with Lyanna or vice versa.

Or are you saying they risked the life of their king to save his mum who was dying anyway?

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SFDanny,

They could have split up, moving Jon and leaving Lyanna. One could go with Jon and two could stay with Lyanna or vice versa.

Or are you saying they risked the life of their king to save his mum who was dying anyway?

That all depends on the timing of the birth doesn't it? It would also depend on how successful Eddard and Co. are at arriving unnoticed. If the Kingsguard is surprised they have no choice but to fight. But I think you're right that if Jon is born early enough, and a wetnurse is present, and they know they are discovered, and they have sufficient time and a reliable way to take Jon away, it would make sense to for at least one of them to do so. The fact they don't do this would tend to tell me some of those things didn't happen.

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You've said yourself that the KG weren't stupid. Yet you think they would wait until they were discovered before moving their king to safety! Ludicrous! They knew about the sack, and they knew it was only a matter of time before they were discovered by the enemy.

The fact that Ned is able to move Jon seems to indicate that the KG could have. If you are relying on Lyanna having only just given birth the second Ned arrived then you are stretching.

As to Rhaegar's planning ahead. Leaving the three KG guarding Jon and Lyanna is a temporary measure and in no way indicates he planned for their safety in the event of his (Rhaegar's) death. According to you, if the KG heard Aerys or Aegon was in danger, they would have to abandon Jon and Lyanna and go to them. So, if Robert had KL under seige, the KG would have to abandon Lyanna and Jon. Not good planning on Rhaegar's part. And if Tywin decided to step in and fight FOR Aerys and scattered Robert's army, who is going to stop Aerys killing Lyanna and Jon? The KG? It is their duty to protect the royal family, but not from the king.

Here's what I think happened:

I think by this time they realized the Targ reign was over and there was nothing they could do to restore the Targs. They could flee with their king Viserys to the free cities, but the KG do not flee. It is the duty of the KG to die protecting their king, not to run away and hide their king. But they were too late for that - Viserys was already gone. So instead of fleeing with him, they chose their last stand. Fulfilling Rhaegar's orders and protecting his child. That is what we see at the TOJ.

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Sarella, the evidence there was a plan for Lyanna and her child's safety is clear in the presence of the three Kingsguard. They are there to protect them.

Says who? I say they were there to imprison them.

In Ned's fever dream, the KG barred the gate as Lyanna was calling for Ned inside. So, whatever else, they didn't "have no choice but to fight." They could have let Ned in and (at the very least) have a supervised talk with his sister.

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Sarella, this works much better if we have a civil discussion and not characterize each other's ideas with words like "ludicrous." Furthermore, it helps if we can deal with the points we both make instead of setting up straw man arguments that have nothing to do with what we write. In that regard, I've never said, "they would wait until they were discovered before moving their king to safety!" or anything remotely like it. I merely pointed out some very reasonable explanations for why they are still there when Ned arrives. If you disagree with those points kindly deal with them as I made them.

(1) do we know the timing of the birth? I don't think we do. All we know is that Lyanna screams "Eddard" as the battle rages and he finds her afterwards in a "bed of blood." That would tell us that she is not likely to have given birth too much earlier if she is still in a bed that gives evidence of her giving birth. It's also possible, and even likely, that the blood is from the complications from childbirth and not the birth itself, but even then how long has it been from the birth if she is suffering from such complications? Days, at most? The point being, if there is a difficult birth, and perhaps pregnancy, Lyanna isn't going to be traveling anywhere when she is close to delivery. This could be one reason they have not left the Tower of Joy. Agreed?

(2) Ned travels to the Tower in a small company that is not likely to give a lot of advance notice of their arrival. If we are to make any assumption about Ned's companions it is that he takes a small number and only people he trusts in order to not announce to the world what he is doing. It is likely he tries to arrive as unnoticed as possible. This too could explain why the Kingsguard hasn't left, especially if combined with number one.

(3) We know almost nothing about the location of the Tower, other than it has the Mountains of Dorne at its back. The route to it could easily be such that it both makes it possible to come upon the Tower in relative secrecy, and that it is not easy to leave. Envision a mountainous path that winds through the hills and I think you can see what I mean. We just don't know enough to say if such could be a reason the Kingsguard are still there, but you can agree that it could be a factor, can't you?

(4) If there is no wet nurse at the Tower then the Kingsguard may well have depended on Lyanna to feed her newborn child. Taking it away without his or her mother would endanger the child. Not outrageous?

I'm sure other reasons can be thought of as well.

Now, with some of the points you raise:

As to Rhaegar's planning ahead. Leaving the three KG guarding Jon and Lyanna is a temporary measure and in no way indicates he planned for their safety in the event of his (Rhaegar's) death.

What it shows is that he planned for very capable and trustworthy people to take care of their safety while Rhaegar was not around.

According to you, if the KG heard Aerys or Aegon was in danger, they would have to abandon Jon and Lyanna and go to them.

This is only true if there is no marriage and Jon is a bastard AND they receive the news and have time to reach King's Landing. A point I've been trying to make to you for some time now. By the way, it doesn't mean they couldn't take Lyanna and/or Jon with them, it only means they have a responsibility to Aerys that is first and foremost in their vows. Which doesn't mean they can't trust Jaime and the defenses of King's Landing to do their job while the three of them provide protection to one of the royal family.

So, if Robert had KL under seige, the KG would have to abandon Lyanna and Jon. Not good planning on Rhaegar's part.

If this was the only part of Rhaegar's plan I'd agree with you, but it isn't. Rhaegar takes a larger army than Robert's to the Trident, including three members of the Kingsguard to help him. He also leaves a well fortified city at King's Landing, including a member of the Kingsguard to guard his father and Elia and her children. In addition he knows his mother and his brother are on Dragonstone, and his second wife (assuming the marriage) and her coming child are guarded by three trusted knights of the Kingsguard. One could add that the only other substantial rebel force is bottled up at Storm's End. This is a well rounded plan. Not one that worked, but a sound one nonetheless. Again they only have to go to Aerys if they know about the danger to him in time. Given that the sack happens because Aerys opens the doors to Tywin there is no reason to think this did not happen before they could do anything.

And if Tywin decided to step in and fight FOR Aerys and scattered Robert's army, who is going to stop Aerys killing Lyanna and Jon? The KG? It is their duty to protect the royal family, but not from the king.

There is little anyone can do to safeguard anyone from Aerys' madness if he is alive and Rhaegar is dead. I would guess that the only hope for Lyanna and her child would be in exile. Perhaps Ser Arthur would have helped them to leave, but that is only wild speculation.

Here's what I think happened:

I think by this time they realized the Targ reign was over and there was nothing they could do to restore the Targs. They could flee with their king Viserys to the free cities, but the KG do not flee. It is the duty of the KG to die protecting their king, not to run away and hide their king. But they were too late for that - Viserys was already gone. So instead of fleeing with him, they chose their last stand. Fulfilling Rhaegar's orders and protecting his child. That is what we see at the TOJ.

I completely disagree with the idea that because Ser Gerold tells Ned that "[t]he Kingsguard does not flee" that means they would not travel to Dragonstone to fulfill their vows to protect Viserys or to take Lyanna and her child to safety in the Free Cities. I think it a huge distortion of what the Lord Commander is saying. He is telling Ned that he will defend his charges from him and he will not abandon his newborn king to go anywhere. The prohibition against "fleeing" is all about abandoning his king, not about abandoning a location or refusing to ever retreat even when it would safeguard his charge. I just cannot understand this taking of this phrase to such an extreme.

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The thing that bugs me most, however, is the idea that Rhaegar made plans for the child's legitimacy in the case of his death, but didn't make plans for the child's life. I still haven't read any decent points that address this.

All you (and others) seem to do is repeat that Rhaegar wasn't stupid, therefore he must have planned for the case of his death. I agree that Rhaegar wasn't stupid. But there is just no evidence that Rhaegar planned for the case of his death. If there is, then please point it out.

Well, as I said, given the prelude to the war something very critical is missing in Rhaegar’s rationality, but once again I don’t think the secret marriage was about planning for his death but giving a child he expect will play pivotal role and unblemished birth. (Once again, I don’t think Rhaegar expected Lyanna’ child to be a heir. Hence she didn’t need much protection.) And simply assuming that he would wrap up the war before Lyanna came to term, as you suggest, seems overoptimistic.

1. He left mad Aerys in power

2. He left Elia and kids with mad Aerys

You assume he had a choice, and being dutiful son didn’t feel compelled into obedience by his father and king.

He left Lyanna and child with three men who would fight to the death rather than flee to safety.

Well, in my scenario he didn’t. And I think there are reasons other then pride they make a stand before the tower. If it's just a futile pointless gesture, as you suggest, it's poor storytelling.

If Rhaegar died and Aerys won the war, the best Rhaegar could have hoped for, given his plans, was that Aerys would take in Lyanna and child. Considering that Rhaegar feared for Lyanna's safety from Aerys BEFORE the war and BEFORE he killed Rickard and Brandon, I don't think it a good plan to trust Aerys with Lyanna's safey AFTER all of that.

I believe Rhaegar kept the Lyanna affair hidden from Aerys because he would disapprove and had the power to interfere with Rhaegar’s plans.

I don’t think he feared that he would chop Lyanna and his child up in little pieces and serve them with a nice chianti.

Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon because he perceived that they challenged his authority. And Ned was to be seized because of fear he would seek revenge. I’ never saw it as an attempt to exterminate the Stark family.

If Rhaegar had feared an outright attack leaving Lyanna at TOJ seems rather stupid.

You've said yourself that the KG weren't stupid. Yet you think they would wait until they were discovered before moving their king to safety! Ludicrous!

I don’t think so. it depends on a lot of factors, newborn infants died like flies in the middle ages. I have little trouble imaging a situation were they didn’t dare to move the king. (Perhaps he wasn’t born until Ned was upon them?)

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Says who? I say they were there to imprison them.

In Ned's fever dream, the KG barred the gate as Lyanna was calling for Ned inside. So, whatever else, they didn't "have no choice but to fight." They could have let Ned in and (at the very least) have a supervised talk with his sister.

Well, I did for one. My point was to Sarella and based on the assumption of "R+L=J." If you want to ignore all the other clues of Lyanna going willingly with Rhaegar, I guess you could read it that way.

Where do you get the "barred the gate" reference? What I have from the scene where Lyanna cries out to Ned is the following:

"And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends." As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death. (AGoT 355, US hardback)

No barring of any gates, no restraint of Lyanna's freedom evident at all.

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We are going in rounds but I will try again to bring arguments for early marriage in Harenhal’s godswood.

1. Witness at hand. We all agree that Rhaegar needed witness in order to prove that marriage took place including case of his death. It is also obvious that since the affair should be kept in secret such a witness should be his trusted friends. In Harengall Rhaegar had both of his closest friends Arthur Dayne and Jon Connington at hand. It is also important that Connington is still alive that makes him a good candidate to reveal Rhaegar’s secrets.

2. Marriage before escape is perfect to acquire Rhaegar from kidnapping charge since it proves that Lyanna was a willing part of it and not a victim. If Rhaegar married her after he impregnated her the charge would still stand and harm his reputation. This would made reconciliation with Lyanna relatives much more difficult.

3. Lyanna reputation. If she wasn’t abducted but run away some would call her whore for it. But if she married before the escape no one would be able to accuse her of whoring.

So Rhaegar and Lyanna had at least three reasons to marry at Harenhall and no reason at all to delay it if they were resolved about their common future.

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Guest Other-in-law
It's true enough that Jon seems to have been born more or less at the time of the Sack, so marrying his mother before he was born was unlikely to be a possibility.

I remember this coming up in the past, but not the details (though puerperal fever may have come into it). Why is it likely that Jon was born at the time of the sack?

More importantly, why would the timing of his birth have any bearing on R+L having been married? They obviously had to be in the same place at the same time for his conception...whenever that was...so why couldn't they have been married a half hour before that?

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I remember this coming up in the past, but not the details (though puerperal fever may have come into it). Why is it likely that Jon was born at the time of the sack?

Daenerys was born almost nine month after the Sack and GRRM stated that Jon is nine or eight month older then her. So he was born of about the same time as the Sack or maybe a month later. The last fits to the theory better since if Lyanna died of childbirth Ned needed time to reach her. A month could be however sufficient for that.

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