What is the Alchemist up to?

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Some basic assumptions about what the Alchemist is up to in Oldtown. First, he's not working for Marwyn or for the grey sheep, because then he wouldn't need the iron key; every archmaester has one, according to the prologue, so they would hardly need to hire somebody at great expense to kill some poor novice and get one. The Alchemist is working on behalf of some outside force. Secondly, the key "supposedly opens any door in the Citadel," which means that the Alchemist is up to something in the Citadel specifically. Finally, it has to be something that would be worth the expense of hiring a Faceless Man. I see three basic options for his mission:

1) The Alchemist intends to kill a maester or archmaester, and needs the key to get easy access. But Marwyn is the only person in the Citadel who has been really established previously, and the Alchemist has spent months working his way into Marwyn's confidence and hasn't killed him. So that doesn't seem very satisfying.

2) The Alchemist needs to discover some ancient-yet-unspecified lore, to unknown ends. This seems unsatisfying too; instead of an assassin, the Alchemist would be more like an unusually violent grad student.

3) The Alchemist needs to wrap his hands on some forgotten artifact in the archives. But again, this suffers from the problem that there's been nothing said about any artifact potentially gathering dust in Oldtown. Book six seems like awfully late in the game to set up a new magical doohickey of great power.

Fortunately, GRRM has already established a magical doohickey of great power: the Horn of Winter. If the Alchemist were looking for the Horn of Winter so that he, or his employers, could bring down the Wall, where would he start? At the Citadel, where many old documents and artifacts would eventually gather. If some old maester hadn't left it to gather dust in the achives, then there could at least be something to point you in the right direction. And since there's a tiny conspiracy of people who would like to stop your employers from bringing about eternal winter, it makes sense to worm your way into their trust and keep an eye on them while you're looking. Marwyn is also the archmaester in charge of magical studies, so he might even know where it is.

Of course, the Citadel doesn't have the Horn of Winter. Mance doesn't either, although he claims he does; his horn is probably Valyrian-made (I'm basing this on the resemblance between it and Euron's horn, which _is_ Valyrian-made), and Valyria was never particularly interested in Westeros or the Wall. The Horn of Winter, according to popular opinion, is the broken horn that Jon discovered in A Clash of Kings and gave to Samwell Tarly. Sam, in turn, has brought it with him to Oldtown, and into the Alchemist's clutches.

So my prediction is that the Wall falls at the end of the Winds of Winter and it is all Sam's fault.

[Gwywen]

You do know the alchemist is in fact Jaqen H'ghar, right?

I have been wondering about that key too.

It bothers me he sleeps in a cell very close to that of Sam.

I fear he'll kill Sam and take his place, and return to the wall in his stead.

But that would not explain his need for the key.

When he arrived in Oldtown, he didn't know Sam would be arriving within a few months with that horn. So I don't think the horn was his goal in the first place.

I think it has something to do with a certain book, although I'm not completely sure.

[Maester Joergensen]

What normally bothers me with this line of speculation is that I don´t think the faceless men can be hired to gather information, or burgle artifacts. As I read the chapters at the temple of the manyfaced god, it is a religious organization and can only be hired for assassinations.

[Mezeh]

Who said that he was hired by someone? Faceless seem to be an organization that could pursuit its own goals.

My guess is that Alchemist is going after some vital information most probably connected to dragons. Yet we don’t know what knowledge the Citadel possesses or rather conceals.

[Intercept]

Who said that he was hired by someone? Faceless seem to be an organization that could pursuit its own goals.

My guess is that Alchemist is going after some vital information most probably connected to dragons. Yet we don’t know what knowledge the Citadel possesses or rather conceals.

But the cult is completely centered around death. And Jaqen H'ghar being a member of said cult-assassin's guild...

I'll just say, from what we know of him so far, it would be extremely uncharacteristic of him not to be there to kill someone. My crackpot theory is I don't think George RR Martin unintentionally made Sam ask for the Alchemist's name. We all know what happened to the last person who tried to pry into his identity.

So I think Sam will die.

Which actually would suck extremely.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Gwywen:

No, I agree. The Alchemist had no way of knowing that Sam was bringing the horn right to him. But if you were looking for an ancient Westerosi artifact, wouldn't you start your search in the Citadel? It's the most logical place to start.

MJ:

Well, again, getting back to what I said before... why does the Alchemist need that key? If it's to kill somebody that we've barely seen mention of in the Citadel, isn't that kind of lame?

[Guest Other-in-law]

Of course, the Citadel doesn't have the Horn of Winter. Mance doesn't either, although he claims he does; his horn is probably Valyrian-made (I'm basing this on the resemblance between it and Euron's horn, which _is_ Valyrian-made)

Very tenuous. Euron's horn has glyphs, Mance's horn has runes. Very different type of writing; runes=First Men.

[Dycedarg]

Well, again, getting back to what I said before... why does the Alchemist need that key? If it's to kill somebody that we've barely seen mention of in the Citadel, isn't that kind of lame?

One theory going around the boards is that the key itself is unimportant, it's the fact that Pate stole it and admitted his theft to Jaqen. The idea is that, given the FM view of death as a religious rite, they only kill people when they have some sort of contract (official or just a promise) or if the person is a confessed criminal. Admittedly support for this is rather shaky, the only other evidence being when Arya kills Daeron after the latter confesses to being a deserter but it makes a degree of sense.

[Red Sun]

If Happy Ent's (and other's) theory about the FM is true, and I find it believable, then Sam is pretty safe as long as a) nobody has actually asked for him to get killed (which would be difficult, because who would have known that he as a person might go to Oldtown)

or

he doesn't commit any crime, like Pate who stole the key.

If the Alchemist gets him to commit a crime, then Sam is very much in danger. I'm also wondering if having sex with the girl might be like breaking his oath, and of that would be criminal enough for the Alchemist.

Edit: LOL. Dycedarg, we said almost the same thing for different reasons.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

OiL:

True enough. I looked back at the description and you were right. (I had somehow read 'glyphs' in the ASOS description yesterday.)

But I still don't think that it's the Horn of Winter, because

SPOILER: ADWD

in the second Jon chapter summarized above, Mance's horn is destroyed by Stannis. If that was the Horn of Winter, it comes to a pretty anticlimactic end.

Drycedarg:

I agree that there's something important to the Alchemist about having Pate confess to a crime first. But the Alchemist asks for the iron key specifically, and the iron key is incredibly useful if you're going to stick around the Citadel as he has done. I'd say that what Pate stole is important, but it's also important that he stole it.

[MTGAP]

Who said that he was hired by someone? Faceless seem to be an organization that could pursuit its own goals.

My guess is that Alchemist is going after some vital information most probably connected to dragons. Yet we don’t know what knowledge the Citadel possesses or rather conceals.

My thoughts exactly. The Faceless Men aren't exactly cheap, so it's not like there's a waiting list to hire them or anything. That gives them some free time.

[Errant Bard]

About magical doohickeys, you forget Lightbringer.

You know Considering how all this stuff can be argued to be metaphorical I would not be surprised if the Horn of Winter was actually Ghost: He howls, and the Wall falls. (And this could even be another misinterpreted prophecy, cause and effect swapped: The Wall falls (Jon dies) and Ghost howls)

Anyway, on topic, I think Jaqen has not been hired by anyone but was sent by his organisation. No real idea why, but he does associate with a strange Clique: a rebel archmaster versed in magic, two noble scions, one in disguise, and a Crow with tales of Others. All in all it points toward a job involving magic. I would guess the Faceless Men might well be following a prophecy too, and/or trying to weight in on the fate of the world. After all, death is their job, so humanity getting wiped out by cool creatures fits right in. I could imagine Jaqen being ordered to keep the citadel in check.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

About magical doohickeys, you forget Lightbringer.

I did. I don't see how that changes things, though. It's the conjunction of three things that makes this compelling for me:

1) The Horn of Winter is an important, already-established magical doohickey;

2) Sam, in most people's estimation, has the Horn of Winter and thus is bringing it right to the Alchemist; and

3) The Wall, again in most people's estimation, is likely to fall before the end of the series.

If the Alchemist were looking for Lightbringer, I don't know where that leads. (Seemingly away from Oldtown.)

Anyway, on topic, I think Jaqen has not been hired by anyone but was sent by his organisation. No real idea why, but he does associate with a strange Clique: a rebel archmaster versed in magic, two noble scions, one in disguise, and a Crow with tales of Others. All in all it points toward a job involving magic. I would guess the Faceless Men might well be following a prophecy too, and/or trying to weight in on the fate of the world. After all, death is their job, so humanity getting wiped out by cool creatures fits right in. I could imagine Jaqen being ordered to keep the citadel in check.

I agree with that, pretty much. The implication of my theory is basically that the Faceless Men are in favor of the end of humanity, eternal winter, the wailing and gnashing of teeth, and all the rest--and why wouldn't they be? If a Faceless Man could give the gift to everybody, wouldn't that be a good thing by their lights? That would also tie Arya's story into the main storyline in a really direct way.

[Errant Bard]

1) The Horn of Winter is an important, already-established magical doohickey;

I brought up Lightbringer to stress that the horn of winter is as well established a doohickey as Lightbringer is, and the most popular theory about this red sword of heroes make it Dany's Dragons. Hence, people who we think have legendary items of winter (Sam, Euron, Mance) possibly all have fakes, like Stannis. The FM, being the mystical zen ninja masters they are, would know this subtelity. Maybe. thus Jaqen is probably not looking for the Horn of Winter.

If a Faceless Man could give the gift to everybody, wouldn't that be a good thing by their lights?

That's not how I understood their philosophy at all. In my eyes, the Faceless Men are benevolent, they bring death but never before the time or with an equivalent compensation. They work to help humanity, not to destroy it. I once compared them to thugs (as in: indian worshippers of Kali), as they do worship a death goddess, kill a lot, and have a rigid mystical code, yet if they kill it is for humanity's benefit (to delay Kali's arrival on earth -the apocalypse-).

Considering that and the fact the KoM isn't a fanatic, I am quasi certain they don't want the end of humanity.

[Winterfell]

You know Considering how all this stuff can be argued to be metaphorical I would not be surprised if the Horn of Winter was actually Ghost: He howls, and the Wall falls. (And this could even be another misinterpreted prophecy, cause and effect swapped: The Wall falls (Jon dies) and Ghost howls)

Not to get too far off topic, but I just wanted to say that this is a pretty interesting take on the Horn of Winter. Thanks for sharing it.

[sholtzma]

Not to get too far off topic, but I just wanted to say that this is a pretty interesting take on the Horn of Winter. Thanks for sharing it.

It does seem like something very important will happen when Ghost finally finds his voice. I hope his howl doesn't bring down the Wall, though.

[Intercept]

Well, again, getting back to what I said before... why does the Alchemist need that key? If it's to kill somebody that we've barely seen mention of in the Citadel, isn't that kind of lame?

Who says we haven't? Archmaester Marwyn was telling Sam that the Citadel doesn't take kindly to faculty and students who don't adhere to their views. There have been no whispers or mention about it to us the readers until Sam talked to Marwyn, so we can assume the Citadel is very very good at making people who don't agree with them die in a way that conveniently doesn't implicate them.

So why else would a Faceless Man be at the Citadel? Being hostile to the idea of dragons, eliminating magic from the world, etc. Seems like they would also believe with consistency that the Others should be taken as a myth. So could this mean Sam is Jaqen H'ghar's target? I think it's possible.

But I do think that Jaqen is there mainly to kill, not to snoop. Like I said it'd be out of character for him. It could mean the Citadel is filthy rich or they have a special understanding with the Faceless Men of Braavos. Maybe they provide them with their poisons and left them immune to the same plot the Citadel might've used to kill dragons, in exchange for quietly eliminating anyone important spreading heresy. Or it could be that the people at the Citadel are simply cheap to kill in general, since they disavow allegiance to any nobility they previously belonged to, and take up a life of servitude.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

WiC:

If that were true, though, Marwyn would already be dead. If they want to kill people who go against their beliefs, there's nobody in the Citadel who does that more than him. And it's not like the Alchemist has trouble getting access to Marwyn, because there he is at the end of AFfC alone in a room with Marwyn. So I don't think that can be it.

EB:

I think you're misunderstanding the Kindly Old Man's position. As far as I can tell, he's saying that death is a good thing in and of itself. It's not a contingent good; it's an absolute good. And thus death on a mass scale would presumably be even better than death dealt piece-meal.

[Blackstone]

The Kindly Man did not advocate mass genocide, that's silly. When somone's suffering is great, death is a mercy and thus a gift.

There is a fourth possibility for the presence of the Alchemist in the Citadel -- simply to spy and collect information. Most of what the Kindly Man had Arya doing was simply collecting information on the city, or more accurately training her to collect such information.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

The Kindly Man did not advocate mass genocide, that's silly. When somone's suffering is great, death is a mercy and thus a gift.

Then why did they offer the gift to the masters of Valyria, who were not (so far as we know) suffering greatly? Why would they work as assassins? (Do they specialize in killing people with terminal cancer or something?) It clearly can't be just about ending suffering.