Robb's stupid moves

[Markus]

Maia,

We know this because: Robb never sent any answer to their questions

Which specific questions do you mean? Where are we told Robb received these questions? When did he receive these questions? Where does it say Robb didn't answer them in a reasonable time?

I'm really not sure what you're talking about here. Please provide quotes.

and he also didn't become more cautious where Bolton was concerned, despite the disquieting news about extra strong garrison left behind, etc.

Where does it say that Robb had been informed about the strength of Bolton's garrison? We learn the size only after Ser Rodrik is dead. Robb may in fact never have learned of its size.

ETA:

It also has been mentioned earlier in the thread that leaving such a feeble garrison at WF wasn't Robb's fault. IMHO, it was. He should have known that WF would need men to keep order in the North and to counteract wildling incursions - with which he was confronted personally. Stripping WF lands so bare that only untrained kids, most under 16, could be found to hold it, was a mistake.

It was Ser Rodrik who left Winterfell with a truly feeble garrison Theon could overwhelm when he took 600 men from Winterfell and its nearest holdfasts to deal with Dagmer Cleftjaw. He had near 2000 after he had dealt with him, although some lords never sent levies in time. I would say there were enough people left who could deal with normal problems.

[Rockroi]

Sure, Lysa was a nutjob, but then, both Cat and Brynden told Robb as much, yet he still thought that his letters, devoid even of any enticing promises, would convince her. He also didn't try to contact any Vale lords directly.

It also has been mentioned earlier in the thread that leaving such a feeble garrison at WF wasn't Robb's fault. IMHO, it was. He should have known that WF would need men to keep order in the North and to counteract wildling incursions - with which he was confronted personally. Stripping WF lands so bare that only untrained kids, most under 16, could be found to hold it, was a mistake.

Maia:

First and foremost, I am NOT a Robb defender; I think he did more to screw up his war effort than anyone. But in dealing with the Vale and in his troops in WF, Robb, at least, had good reasons for both decisions (while sending Theon to Balon and marrying a Westerling are void of anything resembling "sense"). Thus, I cannot fault him for it.

Robb could have sent 500 letters on the wings of 500 doves covered in chocolate sauce and sprinkles, this woman was not going to budge from the Vale. Had Robb written any of the lords, maybe he gets a lord or two, but more likely than not, they would only tell him information that would not have helped him: Lady Lysa was isolated, stuck in her towers, and petrified of anything harming her son. Thus, they would have most likely asked Robb for help FIRST, something he was incapable of delivering.

As far as Winterfell, there is no good answer for Robb. If he takes too many men out, he leaves the palce defenseless, but if he takes too few, he is left shorthanded to fight his war. And remember, it IS his war. For every Winterfell man or Northernman left in WF, that is ONE LESS to see on the field. This could be translated poorly by his other men- who would see Robb flying HIS standard, fighting HIS war, while OTHER MEN die and HIS men sit idle in WF. I am only saying that there were sound reasons for taking as many men. Finally, remember that WF did have men, just not enough to dispatch Ramsey, much less the Ironmen.

Does that mean there are not good reasons to do the opposite? Of course there were good reasons. However, that does not outright negate Robb's decisions; they were actually pretty sound in these areas.

[Meylan1910]

Robb had little alternative but to leave Winterfell with the forces he did.

He was heading to fight the Lannisters, the wealthiest and most militarily powerful of the great houses. Yes Highgarden could summon more men but it was lead by Mace Tyrrell. Robb could hardly dare take fewer men on the off chance that Winterfell would be vulnerable when heading off to fight Tywin and Jaime.

Lets look at possible threats.

1. Lannisters. Can't go north as Moat Cailin is garrisoned and is nigh on impregnable from the south.

2. Greyjoy. At the time he held Theon and would not have thought it likely that Balon would attack knowing his son was a hostage.

3. Wildlings. Not anticipated to get past the Wall so no danger there.

With the benefit of hindsight yes the Greyjoys were a danger but even Ned had not forseen Balon rising up. He merely suggested a close eye be kept on Theon in case they needed the Iron Fleet. Robb had no reason to believe Balon cared so little for his son.

The Riverlords seemed to be more hindrance than help, Brynden excepted.

1. Edmure lost part of his power by falling for Tywin's raiding ploy and then was cut to pieces by Jaime outside Riverrun.

2. Riverlords scattered to defend their own lands at Edmure's insistence. A policy that saw them defeated at the Golden Tooth by Jaime in the first place.

As for the Tyrells. What could Robb have offered them? He was promised to Walder Frey's daughter and Mace wanted to be grandfather to the King of Westeros, not Westeros minus the North and the Riverlands.

What may have been smarter was to have gone over and joined Stannis. Say to him after Renly's death. Attack KL and I will do what I can to prevent Tywin from interfering. When you have done so i will lay down my crown.

[Maia]

Rockroi:

Sure, it was likely almost impossible to make Lysa move - although a shrewder ruler than Robb may have tried something underhanded to make her or at least sent an embassy to the Vale to make a good try of it. However, Robb knew about this from reliable sources from the start, yet _still_ thought that Vale would support him and that he could achieve it by sending Lysa empty letters. It just shows a certain stubborn thickness, no?

Lets look at possible threats.

3. Wildlings. Not anticipated to get past the Wall so no danger there.

Huh?! Even Ned said that there was a danger there _and_ Robb had his run-in with a wildling raiding party really close to WF. Osha also talked about impending assault of Mance's army. So, wildlings were very much a consideration, only Robb chose not take it into account. But he did have his warning, so it was something that he should have been able to anticipate.

And let's not forget

4. His own lords. They were quite rambuctuous, unruly and determined to pressure Robb into granting their agendas when they first arrived. Just because Robb was able to seemingly subdue them face-to-face with Grey Wind's help didn't mean that they would automatically drop they aspirations. Just that they were more likely to go behind his back next. Again, Robb had his warning. He saw all the problems and power struggles between his lords and it was incredibly naive of him to think that some of them wouldn't try to take advantage when the resident fighting force became seriously depleted.

And I do think that leaving 50 or so household guards and some experienced men beyond their prime would have made all the difference. Theon's plan only worked because the few guards left at WF were green as grass and very young.

Roderik's new recruits were all boys, most even younger than 16 according to Bran. There was nobody to offer a dissenting opinion when Roderik hared off with all his strength to Torhen's Square, there was nobody to properly organize the defense of WF and remain suspicious and alert when it was held so lightly.

Markus, I don't have the books around at the moment. However, there was talk of questions being sent to Robb throughout ACOK, concerning all manner of subjects. IIRC, no answer ever came to any of them.

The feebleness of WF garrison as compared to the forces of Dreadfort was referenced first when they discussed Hornwood inheritance and Lady Hornwood's peril. Roderik said that he didn't have enough men to defend her and that they were sending to Robb for decision. Decision that never materialised, needless to say.

Then it came up again when they brought "Reek" and supposedly killed the BoB after the whole murder of Lady Hornwood. A report was sent about this as well.

Then it came up yet again, when Roderik said that Bolton people were fighting Manderly people on Hornwood lands and that he was powerless to intervene and writing to Robb. Etc.

Now, naturally, all of this wasn't enough to accuse Bolton, but it should have put Robb on guard and made him consider Bolton's actions in a more critical light. If he was a different person, that is and/or read his post at all.

[Markus]

Maia,

I don't have the books around at the moment. However, there was talk of questions being sent to Robb throughout ACOK, concerning all manner of subjects. IIRC, no answer ever came to any of them.

I suspect that you may be conflating and misremembering some things.

The feebleness of WF garrison as compared to the forces of Dreadfort was referenced first when they discussed Hornwood inheritance and Lady Hornwood's peril. Roderik said that he didn't have enough men to defend her and that they were sending to Robb for decision. Decision that never materialised, needless to say.

Lady Hornwood merely said that the BoB was "massing men" at the Dreadfort, with an eye towards her lands. There are sellswords and freeriders and such sorts in the north too and peasants besides. She did not say that Roose had left a very large garrison. Rodrik assured her that he would deal out dire retribution if the BoB became too aggressive. Not that he didn't have the necessary forces or that he would inform Robb about this.

Then it came up again when they brought "Reek" and supposedly killed the BoB after the whole murder of Lady Hornwood. A report was sent about this as well.

Indeed. Robb was probably _informed_ that Ser Rodrik had successfully dealt wit the BoB on Hornwood lands. There was no mention of any questions or warnings or demands for troops, and Rodrik probably never saw how many men the BoB had at the Dreadfort, so he won't have informed Robb about this either. Roose Bolton immediately moved to disentangle himself from the BoB, writing a letter which seemed to convince Cat.

Then it came up yet again, when Roderik said that Bolton people were fighting Manderly people on Hornwood lands and that he was powerless to intervene and writing to Robb. Etc.

Rodrik said that he lacked the strength to stop the Boltons and Manderlys, true. But we know that he had ca. 2000 men against Theon later. So he must probably have meant he lacked Winterfell men. We also know Rodrik had about 600 men from Winterfell and near holdfasts likely sworn to Winterfell when he dealt with Dagmer. So it would probably have required a very large garrison to deal with them with only Winterfell men it seems to me.

The problem is that the Boltons and Manderlys may well be the two most powerful Houses in the North. Winterfell may not have enough men to intimidate them at the same time without other Houses to help them. And how would it have looked if Robb would have taken fewer men with him to war than some of his greater Houses?

There was no mention of any letter to Robb though. Besides, any letters sent at this time may not have reached Robb in the west or may have taken a very long time and Winterfell would soon fall.

Now, naturally, all of this wasn't enough to accuse Bolton, but it should have put Robb on guard and made him consider Bolton's actions in a more critical light. If he was a different person, that is and/or read his post at all.

If Robb would have been informed about the size of the garrison which Bolton had left behind, perhaps. He probably wasn't though as far as we know. He was probably less well informed about the details of what went on in the north than you imagine in general. Ser Rodrik and Maester Luwin were supposed to rule, and they probably didn't bother him about things which didn't necessarily need Robb's immediate attention.