The Jon's Parentage Re-Read

[ithanos]

Before the quotes for Week 2 are thrashed out I'd like to make a couple observations.

"Come, let us see what mischief my sons (referring to Robb and Jon) have rooted out now." AGOT 14 Ned

To put this line to rest it should be looked at in context. Eddard is schooling Bran on the duties of a Lord and his bannermen when Jon reappears on the crest of the hill before them and shouts, "Father, Bran, come quickly, see what Robb has found!". It is to Rory who had then ridden up beside Eddard that the quote above is given. In this context Eddard cannot refer to Jon as anything but his son as he has just be called out as Father. He has no time to remind himself of deception and is clearly comfortable with the lie (if any) as it stands at this time and place.

"Promise me, Ned."

"I promise." Promise me, Ned, Lyanna's voice echoed.

AGOT 422 Robert and Ned

Promise me, Ned, his sister had whispered from her bed of blood. She had loved the scent of winter roses.

AGOT 526-527 Ned thoughts

The whole thing about Lyanna's death and Ned's promise to her should take into account what Ned knows of Robert's state of mind at their last meeting before he left and later found Lyanna, here...

Robert's hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

AGOT 100 (or 112) Robert and Ned

If Jon has no Targaryen blood whether he be Ned's, Brandon's, Rickard's or even Benjen's son then there is no fear to be had from Robert. But if Jon were Lyanna's child it would not matter (to Jon's safety) if the father was a Targ or not because Robert would associate any offspring of Lyanna during this period as being a spawn of Rhaegar's and that child would represent a slight to his manhood and honour.

[snake]

JT,

Good point. However, a different interpretation is that Ned sees Robert’s rage is on him and he can’t say anything that will sway him from it at this time.

Robert didn't come off as particularly angry in that scene. Just sad and somewhat lonely. I've actually tried to see what other people see when they read that passage but I really don't get it. IMO, Ned feels Rhaegar deserved his fate.

Yes, he does probably wish for those things. However, Brandon was dead before they won at the Trident. But anyway, Ned could wish for other things as well. That Rhaegar had lived to raise Jon. That Lyanna had not died, perhaps partly of a broken heart. They could include R+L=J aspects. Also, Ned would not have to lie about being an adulterer.

Who says he's lying?

I'm quite certain Lord Eddard Stark is very glad that Robert had won on the Trident. They rose in rebellion in order to cast down Aerys and then decided that Robert should be king not to replace Aerys with Rhaegar or any other Targaryen claiment. And Ned's genuine affection for Robert would not be there if he had wished Robert had died.

Shewoman,

Snake: I think a new mother dying during the collapse of a long dynasty and the establishment of a new one might well be afraid for the well-being of her infant, whether or not it had any connection to either dynasty--especially if her brother was unwilling to promise her what she asked.

That's quite possible. Although there are other promises Ned made not just the one and those other promises haunted him as well.

Robert says "In my dreams I kill him every night. A thousand deaths will be less than he deserved." "There was nothing Ned could say to that" makes sense only if Ned doesn't share Robert's assessment of Rhaegar and what he deserves. If that's the case, he can't agree with his friend ("Yes! Two thousand deaths would be too few!"), but on the other hand if he says, "Robbo, you're wrong; I think of Rhaegar as a good guy," that may open a can of worms that Ned doesn't want opened--and Robert is king now. We learn later that he's capable of sending assassins after young Dany; if he thought there was a chance that Rhaegar had left an heir, particularly a male one, I doubt that he'd be more controlled in his response.

I know other people see things differently and I acknowledged that but I honestly think I'm right on this one and I really cannot see how anyone could read it differently. There's nothing Ned can say to Robert because he thinks Robert is right and I've haven't seen anything put forward to make me doubt this for an instance and the same cannot be said for most of the other passages we'll discuss.

[Jon Targaryen]

JT,

Robert didn't come off as particularly angry in that scene. Just sad and somewhat lonely.

"I vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her."

"You did."

"Only once."

"In my dreams, I kill him every night. A thousand deaths would still be less than he deserved."

Sounds angry to me. Maybe a smoldering anger, but still anger.

[snake]

"I vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her."

"You did."

"Only once."

"In my dreams, I kill him every night. A thousand deaths would still be less than he deserved."

Sounds angry to me. Maybe a smoldering anger, but still anger.

Can't say that I agree with you here. Ned never thinks of Robert as angry in that scene and I'm not certain that Robert was a person who was good at controlling his anger.

[Shewoman]

Errant Bard, I didn't think your post was assholish. You raised a legitimate issue: I'm not a virgin when it comes to this topic. I know we're discussing quotes week by week but I don't know when it will be appropriate for us to start discussing our fave mom and pop candidates.

My most recent post may have gone into more detail than is appropriate at this time, but I wanted to make clear that I see disadvantages to R+L as well as possibilities where A+N is concerned--as well as the possibility that no one has yet figured out Jon's actual parentage.

I agree that hoopy Jon knows where his towel is. Just not who his parents are.

Snake--I find the wording of ""There was nothing Ned could say to that" to be interesting. It's not that he has nothing to say. There's just nothing he can say--which, I think, implies he has some opinions that he can't express to Robert. He and Robert were fostered together and were friends for a long time, but that was a long time ago and Robert is a Targaryen-hating king now. There's no reason for Ned not to verbally agree with Robert if, in fact, he agrees with Robert. He certainly can say that if he wants to. Since you think he does agree with Robert, why doesn't he do so here? It would be DISagreement that he couldn't articulate. Robert would not, I think, take well to any remotely pro-Rhaegar statement.

I think it's noteworthy that Robert claims to dream of killing Rhaegar every night. Obviously, he's obsessed with him--and, while that statement doesn't express anger or hatred at Ned, it does show that Robert frequently if not constantly feels those emotions for Rhaegar. I've said earlier that Ned in his obsession with Lyanna's death could use some therapy; Robert could use some about his obsession as well.

I think it may be useful to pair the "nothing Ned could say" quote with one from GoT, p. 381, Ned's PoV: Ned has just seen one of Robert's bastards and her mother at Chataya's. He and Littlefinger are talking about Robert's bastards and Jon Arryn's interest in them. In response to Littlefinger's scornful statement that "Lord Arryn learned that His Grace had filled the bellies of some whores and fishwives, and for that he had to be silenced. Small wonder. Allow a man like that to live, and next he's like to blurt out that the sun rises in the east." The next lines are "There was no answer Ned Stark could give to that but a frown. For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen. He wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels; somehow he thought not." This strikes me as straightlaced Ned approving what he thinks might have been Rhaegar's behavior over what he knows of Robert's. It's interesting that this is the second time we're told that Ned can make no verbal response to a statement--and both instances involve Rhaegar in some way. Robert specifically mentioned him and something in the conversation with Littlefinger made Ned think of him. But it's also interesting, given how often his thoughts turn to Lyanna's deathbed, that he apparently hasn't thought about Rhaegar in that connection for years. I think it's possible to conclude from that that he doesn't connect her death with Rhaegar.

[snake]

Snake--I find the wording of ""There was nothing Ned could say to that" to be interesting. It's not that he has nothing to say. There's just nothing he can say--which, I think, implies he has some opinions that he can't express to Robert. He and Robert were fostered together and were friends for a long time, but that was a long time ago and Robert is a Targaryen-hating king now. There's no reason for Ned not to verbally agree with Robert if, in fact, he agrees with Robert. He certainly can say that if he wants to. Since you think he does agree with Robert, why doesn't he do so here? It would be DISagreement that he couldn't articulate. Robert would not, I think, take well to any remotely pro-Rhaegar statement.

But it is that he has nothing to say or add to it, which is how I read it. I realize that you and others interpret it differently but I cannot see how and I realize that you feel the same way with regards to my interpretation.

I think it's noteworthy that Robert claims to dream of killing Rhaegar every night. Obviously, he's obsessed with him--and, while that statement doesn't express anger or hatred at Ned, it does show that Robert frequently if not constantly feels those emotions for Rhaegar. I've said earlier that Ned in his obsession with Lyanna's death could use some therapy; Robert could use some about his obsession as well.

All of Westeros could do with therapy. On that we can agree I think.

I think it may be useful to pair the "nothing Ned could say" quote with one from GoT, p. 381, Ned's PoV: Ned has just seen one of Robert's bastards and her mother at Chataya's. He and Littlefinger are talking about Robert's bastards and Jon Arryn's interest in them. In response to Littlefinger's scornful statement that "Lord Arryn learned that His Grace had filled the bellies of some whores and fishwives, and for that he had to be silenced. Small wonder. Allow a man like that to live, and next he's like to blurt out that the sun rises in the east." The next lines are "There was no answer Ned Stark could give to that but a frown. For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen. He wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels; somehow he thought not." This strikes me as straightlaced Ned approving what he thinks might have been Rhaegar's behavior over what he knows of Robert's. It's interesting that this is the second time we're told that Ned can make no verbal response to a statement--and both instances involve Rhaegar in some way. Robert specifically mentioned him and something in the conversation with Littlefinger made Ned think of him. But it's also interesting, given how often his thoughts turn to Lyanna's deathbed, that he apparently hasn't thought about Rhaegar in that connection for years. I think it's possible to conclude from that that he doesn't connect her death with Rhaegar.

Needless to say I strongly disagree that Ned thinking of Rhaegar as a man who didn't whore around meant he approved of Rhaegar or even liked him. And Ned has no answer because he knows what Littlefinger says is true, which is much like his scene with Robertin the Stark crypt. And it is clear from his talk with Robert on the Barrowlands that he felt that Rhaegar deserved to die. Why else would he use the word "avenge" to describe Robert's killing of Rhaegar? To suck up to Robert? To get in Robert's good graces? I think it is quite apparent that Ned Stark was not that kind of man and that he meant what he said.

And if Ned never thinks of Rhaegar but thinks of Lyanna and the promises he made to her then Rhaegar most likely has no conncetion to those promises. So if it has anything to do with Jon then Rhaegar is certainly out of the picture.

[Mezeh]

And it is clear from his talk with Robert on the Barrowlands that he felt that Rhaegar deserved to die.

The only thing that is clear is that Ned never shared Robert’s feelings towards Rhaegar.

And if Ned never thinks of Rhaegar but thinks of Lyanna and the promises he made to her then Rhaegar most likely has no conncetion to those promises. So if it has anything to do with Jon then Rhaegar is certainly out of the picture.

It seems like Ned just tried to avoid remembering Rhaegar. This is very natural all connected with Rhaegar was hardly a happy memory for Ned. But you could not get any conclusion from that fact alone.

[Jon Targaryen]

Well, we've waited a few days for SFDanny and he hasn't posted. I e-mailed him but I guess he's busy with real life. I'm gonna open up week 2 for comments.

Here's mine.

The Tyrion quote just further establishes that one of Jon's parents must be one of the five Starks alive at the time. We can eliminate Brandon and Rickard due to them being dead at Jon's conception. Benjen is unlikely as he remained at Winterfell. So that leaves Ned and Lyanna as the viable candidates.

The Catelyn quote is full of stuff to comment on.

First, we learn that Ned's treatment of Jon as his "son" is highly unusual. Most bastards are left with their mom or fostered out. We learn that Ned visited Starfall, ostensibly to return Arthur's sword, but maybe to either pick up his baby by Ashara or pick up his nephew by Lyanna that was being protected at Starfall. Jon says Ned is "his blood". He does not refer to him as "his son." "Whoever Jon's mother had been, Ned must have loved her fiercely." Ironic if Jon's mother was Lyanna as Ned did indeed love her but not in a sexual way.

Ned says he cannot take a bastard to court. This could be because bastards have no place at court, but we see in AFFC that Aurane gets so high as to be on the small council. And Oberyn took Ellaria to court as well. So maybe Ned has a reason to prevent Jon from going to court.

Ned admits to Robert that Wylla was Jon's mother. This will later be reinforced by Edric Dayne. However, if R+L=J, Ned has to come up with something to protect Jon from Robert's wrath. Not really proof of R+L=J, more like it hurts it as Ned does not seem the type to lie much.

The Robert quote establishes that it is thought that Rhaegar raped Lyanna. Whether the rape happened will be covered later, but this establishes that Rhaegar had intercourse with Lyanna.

We learn honorable Ned has "lived his lies" for 14 years, the age of Jon at that point. The obvious explanation is there is some lie wrt Jon.

"Promise me, Ned" comes up again when Ned says Robert avenged Lyanna at the Trident. Don't know what to think of that.

[Errant Bard]

The Robert quote establishes that it is thought that Rhaegar raped Lyanna. Whether the rape happened will be covered later, but this establishes that Rhaegar had intercourse with Lyanna.

Actually, it establishes that Robert thinks Rhaegar had intercourse with Lyanna. It is a natural guess after hearing of a guy kidnapping a girl like that. Whether she eloped or was forced to come, Rhaegar's motives are seen by everyone to be lust or love. Of course, if the reason Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna and their relation was different from what is commonly believed, then Rhaegar could very well not have had any sex with the wolf maid. The key is answering the question: "Why would Rhaegar not have had sex with Lyanna?". There are some plausible answers.

[Prince of the North]

...Ned does not seem the type to lie much.

I think the key word here is "much". Didn't Ned tell Arya, when she lied to protect her wolf Nymeria and possibly Mycah the butcher's boy, that "even the lie...was not without honor"? I think Ned, like Jaime Lannister of all people, definitely, painfully, and tragically understood that oaths can many times conflict. That is, a person often has to do something perceived as dishonorable on the one hand in order to do the honorable thing on the other hand. I'm in the R+L=J camp and I think Ned's oath to Lyanna was the "greatest" one he ever swore. After all, it seems he would rather the world think him a dishonorable adulterer and hurt his wife and family with the lie than fail to keep his promise to protect his sister's son.

[Jon Targaryen]

Actually, it establishes that Robert thinks Rhaegar had intercourse with Lyanna. It is a natural guess after hearing of a guy kidnapping a girl like that. Whether she eloped or was forced to come, Rhaegar's motives are seen by everyone to be lust or love. Of course, if the reason Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna and their relation was different from what is commonly believed, then Rhaegar could very well not have had any sex with the wolf maid. The key is answering the question: "Why would Rhaegar not have had sex with Lyanna?". There are some plausible answers.

True. It is not definitive proof of intercourse.

Prince of the North,

Yes, I should have mentioned that except the quote comes later.

[Sarella]

He did more than that. The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him "son" for all the north to see.

It could very well be Ned's honour speaking. He thought it dishonourable to just sleep with a woman then abandon her, leaving her to see to the child's needs. Perhaps he dissapproved of Robert scattering the seven kingdoms with bastards and wanted to be different.

But I always thought Ned too honourable to even father a bastard in the first place.

And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes.

Makes Ashara a strong possibility. We know that Ned was interested in Ashara from tKotLT story, and from Harwin in AFFC. Her suicide could have been for grief over losing Ned and her child just as easily as over the loss of her brother.

But Ned would've had to have impregnated her approx the same time he impregnated Cat with Robb. So some time at the beginning of the war. This doesn't sit right with me, either that Ned would betray Cat so soon after their marriage, or that he had opportunity to see Ashara during the war, especially since they were on different sides. But if Cat thinks it could have happened then I guess it could have happened.

That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. "Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know.

Ned could be merely trying to protect Ashara's honour. He would feel bad enough having fathered a bastard on her, let alone telling his wife about it. But if that is the case, why not just say Wylla is the mother, as he did to Robert?

I think Ned can justify lying to Robert's face in order to protect Jon. But that he was unable to justify lying to Cat's face.

ETA: Also, it is strange that Ned can't just confide in her and make her feel better about the whole thing. If he did just lose himself in the passion of the moment, Cat might be able to forgive him. I think he would feel that he owes her an explanation. That he didn't give her one indicates to me that it is more than just a matter of honour. It makes most sense if he fears for Jon's life.

Whoever Jon's mother had been, Ned must have loved her fiercely, for nothing Catelyn said would persuade him to send the boy away.AGOT 55 Catelyn thoughts

This, to me, narrows it down to Ashara or Lyanna. We know Ned had feelings for Ashara. And he was married to Cat. I find it hard to believe he would add another woman to the mix. Could he have loved Wylla fiercely, having loved Ashara and being married to Cat? I doubt it.

The look Ned gave her was anguished. "You know I cannot take him south. There will be no place for him at court. A boy with a bastard's name ... you know what they will say of him. He will be shunned." AGOT 55 Ned

Interesting choice of words in that he says "a boy with a bastard's name, not "a bastard." Ned's anguish over this is strange. A place could have been found for Jon at court, but Ned is almost terrified at the thought of taking him.

I think it is best explained if Jon is Rhaegar's son, and Ned wants to keep him far away from Robert, fearing yet another murder of a Targaryen child. We know his reaction to the murder of Aegon and Rhaenys, and we know his reaction to the bounty on the head of Dany and her unborn child.

"And Rhaegar ... how many times you think he raped you sister? How many hundreds of times?" AGOT 94 Robert

Whether true or not, it certainly plants in the mind of the reader that Rhaegar and Lyanna had sex. Why would GRRM do that if not to toss up the possibility that Lyanna is Jon's mother?

[Prince of the North]

...

Interesting choice of words in that he says "a boy with a bastard's name, not "a bastard." Ned's anguish over this is strange. I think it is best explained if Jon is Rhaegar's son, and Ned wants to keep him far away from Robert, fearing yet another murder of a Targaryen child. We know his reaction to the murder of Aegon and Rhaenys, and we know his reaction to the bounty on the head of Dany and her unborn child.

...

Great catch here, Sarella! I had never noticed this before.

[Dumas]

New here, but might as well throw in my two cents:

The mysterious 'they' who found Ned with Lyanna are not mysterious at all. They are the unmentioned lackeys or squires who followed Ned's party south, or maybe the servants at the tower. Stereotypes of knights-errant notwithstanding, it is pretty near inconceivable that so many men of such high birth would go off without at least two or three servants to take care of the baggage. Ned must have heard something about the Kingsguard heading south at King's Landing; this is not so near the mountains of Dorne (where I assume the Tower of Joy was; 'red mountains' to the south, anyway) that they would be able to do without at least a couple packhorses' worth of supplies. Even if they went part of the way by sea, they would still have needed to climb the mountains, maybe even hiring a guide. And even a guy like Ned would need some help pulling down a small tower.

Lyanna's bed of blood and fever seems to me to point to childbirth. Heemorraghing and fever are well-known complications. There is also the (admittedly remote) possibility of an existing fever and impromptu C-section. If she had been wounded in the melee outside, she would not have been found in bed.

If Lyanna had been pregnant at the time, it would be completely natural to have a wet nurse at hand, though borrowing one from Starfall might have been a bit of a stretch. If I remember correctly, Starfall is on the southern coast of Dorne and the Tower of Joy on the marches. If either Wylla or Ashara Dayne was Jon's mother, Ned's trip to Dorne would have had to be pretty long for him to bring back a child. The mother may have sent Jon to King's Landing, where Ned and Jon Arryn were helping Robert establish his rule, but that seems to me unlikely, especially in Wylla's case.

Ashara Dayne is presented as a romantic figure in more than one sense of the word. Her suicide can be construed as grief for her brother, despair over Ned's marriage (Starfall is remote, remember, and the marriage done on the eve of war). For Jon to be the same age as Robb and not almost a year younger, the Ned and Ashara would have to have somehow met during the war. Ned only went to Starfall after the Sack of King's Landing, which was very near the end of a pretty long war.

Or maybe they met before the Rebellion started and Ned turned up on the doorstep and found a crying babe waiting for him. This sounds unlikely to me, if only because Robb inherited his sense of honour from Ned and he felt compelled to marry Jeyne Westerling. If Ned and Ashara had had sex before Ned's marriage to Cat, he would more than likely have broken that betrothal (if this happened after Brandon's death) and married Ashara. If it happened before Brandon's death, that's just one less obstacle.

In an old sense of the word, Rhaegar could easily be said to have 'raped' Lyanna, regardless of whether they ever had sex, willingly or unwillingly. Morgoth is said to have raped the Silmarils, which were large jewels, after all.

[Shewoman]

Snake--If Ned agrees with Robert, who dreams of killing Rhaegar every night, how come it's been years since he even thought of Rhaegar?

Re: Targ/Stark sex: The Starks would soon be aware that Lyanna had vanished from the North. I wonder when and how Rhaegar's name became associated with that. Was it just assumed, given that he crowned her at Harrenhal? Or was there actual evidence that they were together?

"We can eliminate Brandon and Rickard due to them being dead at Jon's conception." Thanks for that, Jon Targaryen!

The war lasted about a year, as I recall (I think Martin was pretty cagey about that). Benjen could have travelled--although the fact that Ned seems to have found Jon in the south might create some problems. I don't believe we've heard any characters talk about Benjen's time as the Stark in Winterfell, so we don't know if he was gone some.

Dumas--there is no mention of Ned seeing or hearing a child at Lyanna's deathbed, although you're right about hemorrhaging and fever being known problems in childbed. It's been suggested elsewhere that, if Lyanna did give birth to a living child, it might have been taken to Starfall for safekeeping.

Sending the baby, if there was one, to King's Landing might be a bit risky. Who there would claim or take care of it? Not Robert the Newly Established, or Tywin "I was on your side all along, Robert, truly I was" Lannister. I find it hard to see that happening.

We know that Robb was conceived when Catelyn and Ned first had sex--and if that was marital sex, it was some time into the war, since the marriages of the Tully sisters were intended to confirm the Riverrun/Winterfell/Aerie alliance against Aerys. I believe that Martin has said (without making any reference to anyone's parentage) in the SSM, that Jon is about nine months younger than Dany (who was born when KL fell).

It's hard for me to believe that Ned would have had sex with Ashara after he knew he would marry Catelyn because of the possibility that he would leave her unmarried and with a child that he could never claim. I don't think he'd risk putting a woman he had feelings for in that situation.

In the SSM, Martin has said that during the war Ashara was not nailed to the floor in Starfall. She was one of Elia's ladies in King's Landing during the war, although I don't believe we have a time-frame for that. I don't know of Ned's being in the city before it fell--or, if he was, that it coincided with Ashara's time there--but it is possible that they found a way to be together that didn't require a trip to Starfall. That does still leave us with them risking her being an unwed mother.

[Dumas]

The war lasted about a year, as I recall (I think Martin was pretty cagey about that). Benjen could have travelled--although the fact that Ned seems to have found Jon in the south might create some problems. I don't believe we've heard any characters talk about Benjen's time as the Stark in Winterfell, so we don't know if he was gone some.

Dumas--there is no mention of Ned seeing or hearing a child at Lyanna's deathbed, although you're right about hemorrhaging and fever being known problems in childbed. It's been suggested elsewhere that, if Lyanna did give birth to a living child, it might have been taken to Starfall for safekeeping.

Sending the baby, if there was one, to King's Landing might be a bit risky. Who there would claim or take care of it? Not Robert the Newly Established, or Tywin "I was on your side all along, Robert, truly I was" Lannister. I find it hard to see that happening.

We know that Robb was conceived when Catelyn and Ned first had sex--and if that was marital sex, it was some time into the war, since the marriages of the Tully sisters were intended to confirm the Riverrun/Winterfell/Aerie alliance against Aerys. I believe that Martin has said (without making any reference to anyone's parentage) in the SSM, that Jon is about nine months younger than Dany (who was born when KL fell).

It's hard for me to believe that Ned would have had sex with Ashara after he knew he would marry Catelyn because of the possibility that he would leave her unmarried and with a child that he could never claim. I don't think he'd risk putting a woman he had feelings for in that situation.

In the SSM, Martin has said that during the war Ashara was not nailed to the floor in Starfall. She was one of Elia's ladies in King's Landing during the war, although I don't believe we have a time-frame for that. I don't know of Ned's being in the city before it fell--or, if he was, that it coincided with Ashara's time there--but it is possible that they found a way to be together that didn't require a trip to Starfall. That does still leave us with them risking her being an unwed mother.

Ned did not arrive in King's Landing until after Tywin Lannister sacked it and Jaime killed Aerys. He arrived just in time to see Jaime sit down on the Iron Throne for a rest. It would have been quite out of character for him to sneak away from Robert's army to see his lady love. I would have placed the Stark-Tully marriage as shortly after the alliance was made, but before large-scale fighting began. There seemed to have been time for Ned to take his bride back to Winterfell and then ride off to war (if I'm reading Catelyn's thoughts about 'riding south' correctly). In any case, the betrothal fell quite suddenly on Ned and only short time before the rebellion began.

To be sure, we know nothing about the possibility of some haemorrhagic fever being endemic to Dorne (unlikely in its dry climate, given what we know of such diseases, but there is one endemic to northern Europe). And of course consumption and related diseases can cause victims to cough blood in later stages (see Lord Gyles). In fact, it is possible that Lyanna was taken to that dry warm climate as a sort of treatment for consumption.

Actually, the lack of a child at the bed could be interpreted as support for a Caesarean section theory. A hard birth, complicated by illness, mother doesn't think she's going to live. This could all make the promise that much harder on Ned, considering what we know of the survival rate for such a procedure under such conditions.

[Sarella]

Some of the fighting had already started, see here.

And I believe Cat stayed at Riverrun after the wedding until the war ended. She didn't arrive at Winterfell until after Jon and wetnurse arrived.

As for Ned seeing Ashara at King's Landing, I agree with you that he wouldn't have, and even if he did, the child would not be born by the time he is at the TOJ or Starfall. If Jon's mother is Ashara, Ned and Ashara must have met at some time during the war. There are not many places they could have, due to Ned constantly moving and how unsafe it would be for a highborn lady to travel. Also, Ashara could hardly enter a Baratheon camp without being taken hostage, and Ned couldn't enter a Targaryen camp.

[Jon Targaryen]

Re: Ashara

She must be a possiblity to be Jon's mother, elsewise Catelyn would not consider her. Catelyn saw Jon grow up and knows he is of an age with Robb. Ergo, she knows roughly when he was conceived, soon after Ned conceived Robb with her. So Ashara must be a possiblity and during the war sometime.

So how could it have happened? GRRM has said Ashara was not tied down at Starfall. My guess is she was Elia's companion in KL until around the time of the Harrenhal tourney. Then she returned to Starfall. From there she may have taken a boat and met Ned at White Harbor while he was raising the banners where she got pregnant. Then she returned to Starfall. She gives birth to Jon and Ned comes and picks him up. I think that is simple. Certainly more simple than some of the crackpot theories floating around.

[Ser Bruce the Hound KG]

Jon could be a fair bit older the Robb it is offten mention that bastard grow faster then true born

[Mezeh]

Ashara has one big problem. It is possible that Ashara sister was right that she and Ned indeed had fallen in love in Harenhall. They could even have met during the war thought this would be difficult. Catelyn seems to be sure that Ned conceived his bastard in the war after they were married. If she is right then Jon was conceived after Ned returned from the North with his banners. The problem however is not there. A pregnancy is a thing that is very hard to conceal on late stages and we know that Ned and Ashara had their last meeting in Starfall. So if he impregnated her during the war how could it possibly happened that everyone in Starfall is buying Wylla’s theory?