College Basketball 2

[Greywolf2375]

If I had to pick a favorite right now, I'd go with UCLA. I like Kansas and would like them to do well, but obviously history is not on their side. Ditto to North Carolina and Roy; except I don't like them. The lack of an inside presence will kill Duke and free throws will kill Memphis at some point.

If you look at the trend over the last several years, most champions have a "build up" period where they almost get to the top before actually winning it. Kentucky in the mid-90's; Michigan State in the late 90's; Maryland in the early 2000's; etc. UCLA fits in that mold.

While I can't disagree with the comment about Duke, I think their draw may have a huge impact. If they get a bracket that doesn't have one of the premier front lines - not just a single power player - I think they may have a legit shot. Course, FT are still a worry with them...

[Rhom]

Over at my favorite Kentucky blog page (A Sea of Blue) I saw this post from another user on the message board talking about Kentucky's at-large chances.

When March rolls around, what does it take to make the Dance?

Say your team hails from a flagship public university with a proud sports tradition, and after a very rough start, you righted the ship during conference play (in your power conference). You finish the season strong, winning 8 out of the last 10.

But the naysayers won't stop. Only 18 wins? A losing non-conference record! A couple of strong wins in conference, but losses in both matchups against strong teams from other power conferences. For heaven's sake, you lost 3 games to teams that aren't even in the top 100! Including San Diego! You lost to Houston!

Do you get invited to the Big Dance? Of course you do, 1999 Texas Longhorns. (Even though you only won one game in your conference tournament, losing in the second round of the conf tourney to 5th seeded conf team.)

But what if you are not the 1999 Texas Longhorns? What if you are a different team....

You have a losing record (with one more loss than wins) in non-conference play, including a loss to a team not in the top 100, and losses in every inter-conference matchup against strong competition (including being manhandled by the ACC powerhouse). Only two wins against top-50 competition all season. But, alas, you finished strong in conference, going 8-2 down the stretch and finishing 12-4 in conference, 17-10 overall.

You won your game against a weak opponent in the conference tournament, but you didn't win the second round game.

Do you get invited to the big dance as an at-large selection? Of course, you do, 2004 Michigan State Spartans!

These two anecdotes are based on my examination of the performances of teams in the six power conferences over the 9 seasons ending from 1999 to 2007.

In these nine seasons, only two teams (out of 620) from the 6 power conferences finished below .500 in non-conference play but above .700 in conference. I just described them, and they both got in -- as #7 seeds.

Pretty amazing IMO.

[BLU-RAY]

Pretty big deal of a game tonight. Going to have to find someplace on campus I can watch and study simultaneously.

Also, front page article on ESPN right now is Chad Forde being the tree. Pretty amusing article, worth a read.

[RedEyedGhost]

REG... I want you to know I'll be pulling for Kansas in the NCAA tourney. Mainly because I don't want UCLA getting too far ahead of Kentucky in titles and I don't want Carolina and Duke combined to have more than my boys.

Thanks... I guess.

Probably one of the best coaching jobs of the year. For all the flack that the Big 10 gets for being one of the weaker "power conferences" they had some great coaching this year. Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all out-performed where they "should" have been.

Or the top teams in the Big 11 were that much weaker than thought, and allowed Purdue and Minnesota to look better than they really are (MSU is not a good team, and IU is not all that good either - especially after their drama).

I do think Wisconsin is a good team, but I'm not sold on them as a National contender just yet.

If I had to pick a favorite right now, I'd go with UCLA. I like Kansas and would like them to do well, but obviously history is not on their side. Ditto to North Carolina and Roy; except I don't like them. The lack of an inside presence will kill Duke and free throws will kill Memphis at some point.

If you look at the trend over the last several years, most champions have a "build up" period where they almost get to the top before actually winning it. Kentucky in the mid-90's; Michigan State in the late 90's; Maryland in the early 2000's; etc. UCLA fits in that mold.

One thing that has been a pretty good indicator of national champs is kenpom's efficiency ratings.

____________Off_____Def

Florida '07_____1______12

Florida '06_____2_______5

UNC '05_______1_______6

UCONN '04_____6______3

The only teams that fit this criteria of top 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency are:

Kansas_O - #1, D - #1

UCLA___O - #5, D - #4

Duke___O - #4, D - #9

Memphis has a weak Offensive efficiency rating of 31 ( that's pretty surprising)

UNC has a poor Defensive efficiency rating of 28 (not too surprising there)

Stats wise I think it's safe to say there's three favorites (and I like KU's chances), but there is a reason they play the games - stats don't mean shit once that ball goes up.

While I can't disagree with the comment about Duke, I think their draw may have a huge impact. If they get a bracket that doesn't have one of the premier front lines - not just a single power player - I think they may have a legit shot. Course, FT are still a worry with them...

If Duke has an off night from three point land they are done. They have enough weapons that off nights should be very rare, but without the lack of consistent inside scoring I could see them losing as earlier as the second round. The last seven national champions have had a good inside presence (maybe further back, I can't remember too much about MSU in '00, and 5minutes searching on google didn't pull up a roster).

Memphis's abysmal FT will cost them a game in the tourney. I would be shocked if they make it to the final four. Right now they are the third worst FT shooting team in the nation (341 teams this year) at 59.1%. That's just not going to get it done.

[WarGalley]

I like Kenpom's rankings too and right now I like UCLA and Kansas to make deep runs into the tournament. I'm not sold on Wisconsin winning a NC game, but I could definitely see them in the Elite 8.

A hard question for me is which BE team will go deepest. Right now it would be between Louisville and Georgetown with maybe an edge to Gtown.

I probably won't have Tennesseee making a FF run on my bracket as of now. I'm skeptical of how they'll handle the postseason, but their #1 RPI is impressive.

[Celtigo]

I like Kenpom's rankings too and right now I like UCLA and Kansas to make deep runs into the tournament. I'm not sold on Wisconsin winning a NC game, but I could definitely see them in the Elite 8.

A hard question for me is which BE team will go deepest. Right now it would be between Louisville and Georgetown with maybe an edge to Gtown.

I probably won't have Tennesseee making a FF run on my bracket as of now. I'm skeptical of how they'll handle the postseason, but their #1 RPI is impressive.

I through out Tenn as a possible champion for my bracket, but if they get a two seed I think I'll pass. My buddy pointed out that every SEC two seed not called UK has flamed out in the first two rounds in the past decade. Something like 0-6 for the Sweet 16. Yikes.

Wisconsin and Indiana could suprise some people, especially in a year where there isn't a team that seems to be a no brainer for the final four.

As a current Georgetown Grad Student, I advise you not to pick this team. I've seen 5 of their games life this season and this is definitley a team that lives on the edge. Hibbert rarely shows up for big games and Ewing Jr also has a tendency to dissapear at times. Our outside shooting and guard play just doesn't have the ability to fight through an off night. Coupled with the fact that we've had some generous calls at the end of games and I don't thin Gtown can win the Big East/ Reach the Final Four again

[S John]

Are there plans to do a board bracket? I'm in one for money, but I might make more liberal picks with only pride on the line.

[RedEyedGhost]

RedEyedGhost, those are some good stats. Interesting...I really think UCLA is the lest flawed team.

Your team KU is loaded with above average players but they don't have any stars I don't think. Correct me if I'm wrong but Rush was a borderline star last year and has come back to the pack this year as some of their other players (Arthur, Collins) have improved a bit. Don't get me wrong, I love a team that is loaded. They remind me a bit of Pitino's UK team that won it in '06 that had a grip of good players but whoever was #1 wasn't that much better than whoever was #5.

We have a very loaded team, but you're right we don't have any "stars" - stars in the sense that they get favorable treatment by the refs. If you put Chalmers, Arthur, Collins, Rush, or Jackson on any non top 25 team they become an instant "star" and make that team better. If we had somebody that consistently got favorable calls we would have our "goto guy" that all the talking heads get on us for not having.

Congrats on your win, and good luck against AZ on sat!

Georgetown and Louisville both are E8 threats, and could sneak into the final four, but neither are final four "locks".

Tennessee looks brilliant at times, and lost at others... I could definitely see them making it to the final four.

Is there a third Lopez brother, because the guy sitting next to their mom looks like he could be a third twin. Is he younger? Older? Already committed to Stanford?

[RedEyedGhost]

It's nice seeing Kirk and Drew reunited in Chicago, now they just need to get Collison there as well. Then maybe I'd be able to stomach watching the NBA.

I really hope that UCLA and Stanford are on the same side of the bracket and that KU is on the other side!

Collison is one of those "stars" I was talking about earlier. Unfortunately for Stanford this game never should have gone to OT, because he was not fouled at the end of regulation.

If any two teams get to the final four from the same conference, I would bet on UCLA and Stanford. Great game!

(Stanford would kill duke btw)

[aeu]

Phew, that was close...Gotta thank the refs for the call at the end of the regulation.

Collison stepped up big time in the second half, it was probably the best half he played all year long.

I was quite impressed by Stanford, didn't really lose their cool when UCLA upped the defensive intensity. They hit some difficult shots as well, especially some of the shots B. Lopez made (on the other hand, he took way too many bad shots)

A lot of people like UCLA from what I've seen, both on this board and in the media, but I just cannot see us going all the way like this. We have no outside shooting, at all. Shipp's the only one we depend on anyway and he's a complete mess. Seems like he lost all his confidence. Unless he finds his game (preferably very quickly) or Collison keeps hitting those ridiculous shots, it will catch up to us sooner or later.

[BLU-RAY]

I agree with most of aeu's post, Collison killed us tonight, and Brook took too many crappy fadeaway baseline jumpers (especially that stupid one that bricked out with 22 left on the shot clock and us leading really late).

But goddamn, could we maybe get a call? The two pretty much non-calls right at the end of regulation (>45 seconds to go) were really bad; the first one (when Mbah a Moute put the rebound back for 2, and the ref called a foul when there wasn't any contact for the 3-point play) was questionable at best, and the foul on Law Hill was pretty ridiculous, to the point where I'm still half-seriously entertaining the idea that that ref got paid.

I don't mean to come off like a whiny loser here (and I know I am)... but I need to vent some, and that was a ridiculous thing to call.

Can't hold it against UCLA, though, they played hard, and we should have played better down the stretch and in OT.

[Rhom]

It's nice seeing Kirk and Drew reunited in Chicago, now they just need to get Collison there as well. Then maybe I'd be able to stomach watching the NBA.

That's why I started following the Celtics! They became Lexington North in the late 90's even after Pitino left. Then they pretty much purged the Kentucky boys... but picked up Rondo last year.

Stanford pretty much got jobbed last night. But regardless, big props to UCLA for keeping their cool and getting it done after being outplayed for 39 minutes. Its that kind of game that gets it done at tourney time.

As to doing a bracket for the board, the last couple of years I've put together a group on ESPN's Tourney Challenge. Its pretty easy to use and keeps track of the "points" very well. I'll volunteer to get one together and I'll post the password and group name here.

[RedEyedGhost]

Since Vegas is usually pretty good at this sort of thing - here's the current odds to win the tournament:

ODDS TO WIN THE 2007-08 NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT

Team Open Current

UCLA 4/1 9/2

North Carolina 5/1 5/1

Kansas 8/1 5/1

Memphis 9/2 6/1

Duke 18/1 8/1

Tennessee 12/1 8/1

Louisville 10/1 12/1

Georgetown 15/1 12/1

Texas 50/1 15/1

Connecticut 35/1 25/1

FIELD (ALL OTHERS) 25/1 25/1

Stanford 30/1 30/1

Michigan State 15/1 35/1

Kansas State 100/1 40/1

Indiana 22/1 40/1

Arizona 20/1 40/1

Southern California 60/1 40/1

Washington State 22/1 40/1

Xavier 75/1 40/1

Wisconsin 60/1 50/1

Marquette 30/1 50/1

Notre Dame 60/1 50/1

Arkansas 30/1 50/1

Gonzaga 40/1 50/1

Clemson 100/1 50/1

Maryland 150/1 60/1

Oklahoma 75/1 60/1

Pittsburgh 40/1 60/1

Purdue 250/1 60/1

Texas A&M 75/1 60/1

West Virginia 60/1 60/1

Mississippi State 50/1 75/1

Brigham Young 150/1 75/1

Butler 150/1 75/1

Vanderbilt 125/1 80/1

Oregon 40/1 80/1

Ohio State 75/1 100/1

Syracuse 30/1 100/1

Alabama 35/1 100/1

Florida State 100/1 100/1

Washington 50/1 100/1

Southern Illinois 100/1 125/1

Saint Josephs-Pennsylvania 500/1 150/1

Kent State 500/1 150/1

Kentucky 25/1 150/1

Davidson College 250/1 150/1

DePaul 150/1 150/1

Florida 75/1 150/1

Baylor 250/1 200/1

Boston College 75/1 200/1

Illinois 75/1 200/1

Oklahoma State 150/1 200/1

North Carolina State 40/1 200/1

Georgia Tech 60/1 200/1

Villanova 50/1 200/1

Virginia 45/1 200/1

Utah 250/1 200/1

Virginia Commonwealth 250/1 250/1

Virginia Tech 125/1 250/1

UNLV 250/1 250/1

New Mexico State 125/1 250/1

Georgia 250/1 250/1

Akron 250/1 250/1

California 150/1 250/1

San Diego State 500/1 300/1

Nevada 250/1 300/1

Texas Tech 100/1 400/1

Providence 500/1 500/1

California State-Long Beach 250/1 500/1

California-Santa Barbara 500/1 500/1

Air Force 500/1 500/1

Bradley 500/1 500/1

Auburn 150/1 500/1

Iowa 150/1 500/1

Louisiana State 125/1 500/1

Missouri 500/1 500/1

Western Kentucky 500/1 500/1

Wichita State 500/1 500/1

Winthrop 1000/1 1000/1

Vermont 1000/1

Wow, that didn't copy and paste at all like I wanted it to...

The highlights include:

UCLA is the overall favorite at 4.5/1 (down from 4/1 when it opened)

KU is 5/1 (up from 8/1)

Memphis is 6/1 (down from 4.5/1)

Duke is a big mover to 8/1 (from 18/1 )

[chionophile]

I'm a little surprised that MSU is (still) the favorite to win the NC from the Big Ten.

[S John]

I see WV at 60-1 odds, we might get through a round or two. I'm not expecting much. With a new coach this team has already over achieved and I've watched them enough to know that they're good enough to make the tournament, but not good enough to go very far. In fact, my prediction is that they make it to the 2nd or 3rd round and then get stomped. If Alexander and Ruoff go cold, it's game over. I can see someone beating the crap out of WVU. I've watched both Cincy and Nova do it this season.

[Rhom]

It amazes me that Indiana is just one spot above Arizona on that list.

Back on the subject of Heinrich and Goodin being reunited in Chicago... I caught some of that game last night against Boston on ESPN. When the hell did Goodin become some sort of Islamic Fundamentalist???????? That beard he was sporting comes straight from a grainy recording made in a cave deep in the hills of Afghanistan!

[Rhom]

Holy #@%&!!!!!!

The latest Bracketology has Kentucky officially listed as in the tournament!!!! They've got them slotted at a 10 seed in the South against 7 seed Pittsburgh. I know that doesn't amount to a hill of beans and the liklihood of that actual match up is practically nil... but I'd like our chances on that one. Its nice to see some recognition from the national media on this.

[AndyP]

So is the board going to start a NCAA tourney thread like for world cup with avatar changes and everything.

[HokieStone]

Since Vegas is usually pretty good at this sort of thing - here's the current odds to win the tournament:

I wouldn't say they're very good at all...since looking at two teams I follow,

Virginia Tech is 250-1 and Virginia is 200-1.

VT is 18-11 overall and 9-6 in the ACC - clearly a bubble team, and one that a lot of folks expect to make the tournament at this point.

UVA is 14-14 overall and 4-11 in the ACC - clearly they're not even going to sniff a tournament invite (barring winning the ACC tourny).

Not that I expect VT to win the tournament...but how UVA can have better odds when they're not even going to go to the tournament is beyond me.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

Rejoice! Carolina 76 vs. Duke 68! And regular season ACC champions!