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Debuts and Hype


Larry.

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Crossposted on [url="http://ofblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/debuts-and-hype.html"]my blog[/url]:

[quote]I've been thinking on this one for a while now, especially after reading this post on [url="http://www.sffworld.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19802"]SFF World[/url], but I can't help but to wonder at some people's fascinations with searching for the "hot new release." It's bad enough when erstwhile trendsetters such as Rolling Stone try to proclaim what is the latest and greatest, but it seems doubly artificial when it comes to books.

What is so damn important about discovering THE debut of 2008 or whatever year? Does there have to be such a thing as THE debut of the year for there to be a nice selection of books? Is it more about having bragging rights and pimping this or that author/series/etc. first? I just don't know, as it seems rather pointless to me at times. People being disappointed that there is no "consensus" debut that is a "must-own/read?" What the hell?

If one wants to know the "true" best debut for any given year, wait about 5-10 years at least. Some books are not hyped to the moon immediately, but yet build gradually via word-of-mouth to become bestsellers within a few years. Carlos Ruiz Zafón's The Shadow of the Wind/La sombra del viento took years to rise to megaseller status and that was after Zafón had already written a few other well-regarded releases. Same holds true with a George R.R. Martin, or on a lesser scale, newer authors such as Catherynne M. Valente and Cory Doctorow, to name just two out of many. More often than not, I suspect that the value of a debut relies more on what follows after than upon the initial book. But perhaps others have their own justifications for getting so excited about debuting authors.[/quote]
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I think what's interesting is that we've been spoiled for the last few years in having a clear-cut 'BIG NEW NAME' for each year for the last few years, namely: Bakker in 2003, Suzanna Clarke in 2004, Sanderson in 2005 (reaching a bit here), Lynch & Abercrombie in 2006 and Rothfuss in 2007, so the sudden lack of a BIG NEW NAME in 2008 is vaguely disconcerting for people even though it is much more normal not to have such a clear-cut debut.
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But here's something to consider: Outside of Clarke and Rothfuss, none of those you've mentioned have come close to sniffing the NY Times Bestseller list. Outside of a few internet forums, most of those authors aren't really known at all. Over at wotmania, in their version of the poll you ran, Abercrombie has no votes at all for favorite author, Lynch has two, Rothfuss none, Clarke one, Bakker two, and Sanderson none. There might be a bandwagon effect going on a few sites, but on others, few are drinking the special Kool-Aid.
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But it isn't necessary for a writer to hit the NY Bestseller list for them to be a big deal. As discussed elsewhere, the biggest-selling new fantasy authors of the last few years (Clarke a singular exception, as she has yet to publish a follow-up) have been Trudi Cavanan, Karen Miller and Gail Z. Martin, who between them have attracted virtually no discussion on the major messageboards. That said, Abercrombie and Lynch have sold exceptionally well (Abercrombie sold out his hardcover and tradeback stock of LAoK before it was published, which is unheard of for a new author) and Orbit report that Bakker has done exceptonal business for them. Not quite up there in the Cavanan/Miller bracket, but he has still sold very well (in the UK anyway).

Erm, and I think for obvious reasons Sanderson's name would be very well known on Wotmania, especially if you knocked down that wall that two-thirds of the site's membership seem never to cross and got some of the people in the actual WoT section of the site to comment ;)
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Last thing first: It's been crossposted and half the people responding are from that other side ;)

As for the other, my point still stands in regards to online hype holding the potential of distorting matters. While doubtless it has helped certain authors to an extent, there are wide swaths of popular works (good or bad is outside the discussion for now) that won't be discussed on sites such as this or certain blogs because they focus on other areas. If the various forms of urban fantasies are the biggest sellers and they aren't talked about much here, then would the hype be misleading? In regards to debuts, as I said in my original post, isn't it better to wait at least 5-10 years before evaluating any particular year? After all, Bakker wasn't a big deal at all in most places in 2003...or 2004...or 2005 ;)
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[quote]Last thing first: It's been crossposted and half the people responding are from that other side ;)[/quote]

And I notice their voting pattern aren't as different from here as advertised. Although I spotted one Canavan (my eyes!) and a disturbing number of Piers Anthonys ;)

[quote]As for the other, my point still stands in regards to online hype holding the potential of distorting matters. While doubtless it has helped certain authors to an extent, there are wide swaths of popular works (good or bad is outside the discussion for now) that won't be discussed on sites such as this or certain blogs because they focus on other areas. If the various forms of urban fantasies are the biggest sellers and they aren't talked about much here, then would the hype be misleading? In regards to debuts, as I said in my original post, isn't it better to wait at least 5-10 years before evaluating any particular year? After all, Bakker wasn't a big deal at all in most places in 2003...or 2004...or 2005 ;)[/quote]

All online discussions have to operate under the somewhat discouraging but nevertheless true fact that less than 10% of sales are generated by online discussions. We are very much in the minority, albeit a growing one.

As for the rest, I'm not so sure. I hear a lot about the urban fantasies taking over but this isn't really backed up by a lot Rothfuss was globally the biggest-selling debut author in the SF or fantasy (urban or epic) field last year, Miller (or Martin, I forget) was for the year before. The biggest urban fantasy authors are discussed here a fair amount. Laurel K. Hamilton gets the dismissive treatment here and on other forums she deserves, whilst we have regular discussions of Butcher and the [b]Night Watch[/b] trilogy guy (actually, I should have mentioned him as a 'big new author' who's done very well in the last few years). On the epic fantasy side of things Bakker was reasonably well-known from the off (Orbit pimped [i]The Darkness That Comes Before[/i] massively on release in 2003 and there was a fair amount of excitement then about it, although it tailed off again until the trilogy was complete: again, what happened in the US and Canada I can't speak to). Abercrombie and Lynch's popularity may have been engendered by the authors' presence on the actual board, which has encouraged discussion. If they'd appear on Wotmania, I daresay the same thing would have happened (although, obviously, Wotmania's format does not encourage ongoing discussion of any subject or author since it automatically drops off the bottom of the page within about a week: when [i]are[/i] you guys going to join the rest of us in the 21st Century? ;) ). That all said, the author who's received the most regular discussion on Wotmania in the last few weeks seems to have been...GRRM :P

But, back to the original point, you are correct. There is absolutely no need for a BIG DEBUT AUTHOR for a particular year. The good thing about not having neither a BIG DEBUT AUTHOR nor a BIG RETURNING AUTHOR (since Lynch and Rothfuss are out for this year and GRRM is possibly out, leaving really just Erikson) for 2008 is that hopefully lots of books that normally get lost in the glare of the big-hitters or the Next Big Thing will have a chance to shine. Either that or they'll still be ignored and people will be moaning at the end of the year about how lame 2008 was.
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Certain authors that I've noticed being listed in the wotmania list:

Storm Constantine
Carol Berg
Kelley Armstrong
Jacqueline Carey
Charles de Lint
Haruki Murakami
Sarah Monette
Tanith Lee
L. Timmel Duchamp

I'd have to look back at Westeros' list, but I don't quite recall seeing most of those names there. There's more of an interest in the various forms of urban fantasy at wotmania than here at Westeros, which may in part be related to the relative number of female readers there. Although that's not really a good correlation predictor, since quite a few males (including myself) are fans of many of the authors listed above.

But in regards to Rothfuss, one would have to look at the wider picture. If I were to judge publishers' promotional leanings by the ARCs that I receive, it seems that urban fantasies dominate over epic fantasies. Perhaps that's more of an American thing rather than a British one, since I never receive materials from the UK, unless it's for a SH review. Since there's been a move to segregate paranormals and other branches of urban fantasy in many bookstores, I would take that as another sign of their popularity, but yet in discussions of most popular or next big thing, rarely are they heard here or at similar forums.

Bakker wasn't originally published by Orbit, if memory serves, but by Simon and Schuster, before their UK fantasy imprint went out of business. That's why I did the 2003 (Canada, aborted UK)...2004 (US)...2005 (UK re-launch) bit. As for the other two and appearances on wotmania, a few of us knew Lynch <i>before</i> he became a published author, back on the now-disappeared Dead Cities/Frameshift days of 2002-2003. But yet while authors making appearances might get some excited, are you implying that if neither one had frequented Westeros that the bandwagon effect would have been much less? I think the boards are a bit different in many regards, as outside of Martin, Erikson, and Bakker (to some extent), epic fantasy of any stripe isn't all that popular there compared to here.

As for your last paragraph, I think we're seeing at crosspurposes. I was thinking about how hype distorts expectations and blinds people to other possibilities. I could care less about others' expectations, except in how they might affect my own search for interesting books. After all, I do have an intriguing 2008 debut to read soon. It's called [i]Birmingham, 35 miles[/i]. VanderMeer sent it to me as part of my "payment" for that Amazon review two weeks ago. If it weren't for him, I wouldn't have heard of the guy. Sometimes, the best way to discover the best new authors is trial and error or having someone you trust supplying you with the book.
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Storm Constantine
Carol Berg
Kelley Armstrong
Jacqueline Carey
Charles de Lint
Haruki Murakami
Sarah Monette
Tanith Lee
L. Timmel Duchamp

[quote]I'd have to look back at Westeros' list, but I don't quite recall seeing most of those names there. There's more of an interest in the various forms of urban fantasy at wotmania than here at Westeros, which may in part be related to the relative number of female readers there. Although that's not really a good correlation predictor, since quite a few males (including myself) are fans of many of the authors listed above.[/quote]

Monette, Marukami, Carey and I believe Lee all got votes, although I'd have to double-back and take another look. Marukami actually got a fair number, IIRC.

And I very much doubt that the male/female ratio of readers at Wotmania is any different to here, to be honest, based on board statistics and the sheer number of women who turn up at board meets (who often outnumber the males).

[quote]But in regards to Rothfuss, one would have to look at the wider picture. If I were to judge publishers' promotional leanings by the ARCs that I receive, it seems that urban fantasies dominate over epic fantasies.[/quote]

Or you could go by sales. I mean, the epic fantasy authors still sell a truckload more and in-genre those authors I mentioned earlier have been the biggest sellers in their respective years. There does seem to have been a move into urban fantasy in recent years, but those spearheading the charge (such as Lukyanenko and LK Hamilton) seem very much to be the outliers. The urban fantasy field is big and growing, and may overtake epic/secondary world fantasy in a few years, but it's a long way from being there yet. Given the way some of its stars seem to be fading (in the UK if you now say 'Hamilton' people immediately think of Peter F. rather than LK as they would have a couple of years back, a change I would welcome with a thousand-gun salute if I had a thousand guns) already, I'm not sure if it ever will be.

[quote]Perhaps that's more of an American thing rather than a British one, since I never receive materials from the UK, unless it's for a SH review. Since there's been a move to segregate paranormals and other branches of urban fantasy in many bookstores, I would take that as another sign of their popularity, but yet in discussions of most popular or next big thing, rarely are they heard here or at similar forums.[/quote]

No, this is happening in the UK as well. Waterstones, the biggest booksellers in the country, have recently split off Horror from SF&F, indicating it's growing in popularity again (and Horror has seemingly and nearly randomly dragged a lot of urban fantasy, supernatural and paranormal romance away with it). However, it seems to have been spearheaded by lots of minor authors I've never heard of and a few 'old reliables' (King, Barker, Koontz etc), rather than a solid array of mid-listers such as SF&F posseses.

Bakker wasn't originally published by Orbit, if memory serves, but by Simon and Schuster, before their UK fantasy imprint went out of business. That's why I did the 2003 (Canada, aborted UK)...2004 (US)...2005 (UK re-launch) bit. As for the other two and appearances on wotmania, a few of us knew Lynch <i>before</i> he became a published author, back on the now-disappeared Dead Cities/Frameshift days of 2002-2003.

[quote]But yet while authors making appearances might get some excited, are you implying that if neither one had frequented Westeros that the bandwagon effect would have been much less?[/quote]

Lynch would have got some attention since it was JT's review that really got the whole ballwagon rolling. Abercrombie would have picked up some discussion from his timely release schedule and the big noises that Gollancz made over his books. Would either have been discussed as much in-depth if they hadn't cropped up here? I seriously doubt it. In fact some authors - Peadar comes to mind - probably would hardly been discussed at all if they hadn't come on board.

[quote]I think the boards are a bit different in many regards, as outside of Martin, Erikson, and Bakker (to some extent), epic fantasy of any stripe isn't all that popular there compared to here.[/quote]

Well, and Feist, who comes up a fair bit. And Donaldson generates some excitement, admittedly mostly when a new one of his books is coming out. I remember a Kay discussion quite recently as well. And Brooks was also up in the last few months.

Seriously, your attempt to paint Wotmania as the haven of 'intellectual fantasy discussion' and Westeros as where the epic fantasy fans are slumming it (and I know that's an exaggeration but there you go) isn't really washing, DF.

[quote]As for your last paragraph, I think we're seeing at crosspurposes. I was thinking about how hype distorts expectations and blinds people to other possibilities. I could care less about others' expectations, except in how they might affect my own search for interesting books. After all, I do have an intriguing 2008 debut to read soon. It's called [i]Birmingham, 35 miles[/i]. VanderMeer sent it to me as part of my "payment" for that Amazon review two weeks ago. If it weren't for him, I wouldn't have heard of the guy. Sometimes, the best way to discover the best new authors is trial and error or having someone you trust supplying you with the book.[/quote]

Indeed. There are a fair few books that I would never have read without the whole getting ARCs from publishers thing going on.
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I think as a new fantasy reader, my interest has been with the newer authors, as the only fantasy I've read is Martin, Lynch, Abercrombie, and Bakker. So knowing the next big thing is a topic I'm interested in, as those have been my main authors. New authors are fun because they bring new ideas into the genre, and evaluating the authors who have potential to really prove their worth, than it may be worth noting.
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Uh, again near-last thing first: I believe you were putting words in my mouth that I wasn't even thinking of saying - I was thinking more along the lines of urban fantasies being more popular there, nothing else other than that. It's far from any "intellectual haven" of any sort, to be brutally honest.

As for the ratios, it's around 50/50 in participation at wotmania and that was just a speculation, nothing set in stone. All I know is that the top ones in Westeros' poll are often not appearing on the wotmania one and I'm curious as to why. All I can think of is that reading preferences are different, especially since there aren't all that many pure epic fantasy writers on there, especially for those who are known regulars at the OF section.

Odd that you'd mention Lukyanenko there, since he's hardly on par with a Charles de Lint, for example, who's very established and has a very large fanbase. Also, come to think of it, quite a bit of the "New Weird" is just a flavor of urban fantasy, especially if you look at VanderMeer's definition for it in his [i]The New Weird[/i] anthology. And since sales are notoriously difficult to track (on purpose), one is left considering what is being promoted. Based on what I've received from the publishers this year alone, urban fantasies of all stripes would outnumber the epic fantasies by around 4:1. The Penguin Group in particular seems to have a quite healthy urban fantasy market and Random House isn't too far beyond. I don't receive ARCs from Pyr or Gollancz and only sporadicly from the US branch of Orbit, so it's possible that they are tailoring their review copies to my known reviewing preferences, but somehow I doubt that's the main reason for such a discrepancy. As a category, it seems that urban fantasies are much more in demand than epic fantasies, based on anecdotal evidence.

Even before Jay reviewed Lynch's book, there was some "buzz" about it, from the likes of Matthew Stover, among others at Dead Cities/Frameshift. For example, I knew of [i]The Lies of Locke Lamora[/i] in late 2004/early 2005, well before the first ARCs were printed. That "buzz" came mostly from non-epic fantasy-centric blogs/websites, incidentally. But yet all it ever amounted to was a fair amount of discussion, since the book never rose past the midlist level for sales.

As for Feist and the others, very occasional posts - same for Constantine as well, to be honest - over there. Feist incidentally has only a single vote there. An author often not talked about here, Neil Gaiman, has the fourth-most votes there. Stephen King is neck-and-neck with Erikson for fifth. Constantine is seventh so far. Douglas Adams is 8th, ahead of Kay and Wolfe. Quite a bit of difference in many ways from Westeros' list, which is intriguing. Smaller body of voters plays a role, with only 42 votes so far. And as for sales, we both know that Gaiman is around the top in those each time he releases a novel. So I don't know if epic fantasy really is selling all that well these days compared to what some might believe. I suspect it's just one of many important markets and not one that dominates the others as what used to be the case. And having just now thumbed through Tor's Fall 2008 catalog that they sent me, my suspicions are confirmed (at least for them): It's a near split between urban and epic fantasy, with a sizable number of SF titles. The ones getting the $250K+ marketing budgets are the [i]Paul of Dune[/i] and [i]Ender in Exile[/i] titles.

But all this goes to show is that again, one ought to be very mistrustful of hype and perhaps ought not to get too wrapped up in the search for "the next big thing."
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[quote name='Oddy' post='1369931' date='May 24 2008, 21.29']I think as a new fantasy reader, my interest has been with the newer authors, as the only fantasy I've read is Martin, Lynch, Abercrombie, and Bakker. So knowing the next big thing is a topic I'm interested in, as those have been my main authors. New authors are fun because they bring new ideas into the genre, and evaluating the authors who have potential to really prove their worth, than it may be worth noting.[/quote]

But I have to raise this question: If you are new to the genre, then how would you know about "bringing new ideas into the genre" if you don't have some grounding in the genre? Also, how certain can you be that you aren't just buying into some marketing campaign and risking the chance of discovering a slew of older and/or less-publicized authors?
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[quote name='Dylanfanatic' post='1369938' date='May 24 2008, 21.59']But I have to raise this question: If you are new to the genre, then how would you know about "bringing new ideas into the genre" if you don't have some grounding in the genre? Also, how certain can you be that you aren't just buying into some marketing campaign and risking the chance of discovering a slew of older and/or less-publicized authors?[/quote]

That's a good point. After reading ASOIAF, I did a lot of research on trying to find series I would enjoy. Since I didn't want the typical quest fantasy, Lynch, Abercrombie, and Bakker all fit my criteria well and were well praised here and at sffworld. I think I bought into the praise at the forums, and my reading list has largely been determined by forums and blogs. In a sense, In a sense, I may just like reading a new book for the first time with everyone else.
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I think this reflects my own reading experience. When I started seriously getting into reading SF&F over ten years ago (having read a lot of Clarke and Asimov as a kid), my reading list was made up of both contemporary works (Jordan, Pratchett, Feist, Kearney and PF Hamilton at that time) and 'classics' (Bester, Aldiss, Tolkien etc), although the debate of what made a 'classic' or not was interesting.
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I suppose my own reading habits have been shaped by required reading lists in school and my only two major fantasy reads before my mid-20s being Tolkien and C.S. Lewis, although in some ways, I read a lot of SF and cross-genre works growing up, in part due to the influence of my maternal grandmother. All I know is that I don't have much of a fascination with the "new" literary works as much as I do with those that exist on the edges; the two aren't really all that related.
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I think it's just gossip. A way for people in a community to connect with each other. What's your favourite books, writers? What's the new big stuff? It's a conversation starter, a way to compare tastes and news. Gossip.
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[quote]In fact some authors - Peadar comes to mind - probably would hardly been discussed at all if they hadn't come on board.[/quote]

That is so true. I'm not published by the usual Gollancz/Solaris/Orbit/Tor/Pyr crowd. Those guys know exactly how to make a big splash in places like this. Luckily, the reviewers and the posters here are open-minded enough to give new things a try if they hear about them.

So, thanks to all of you for that. :bow:
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[quote]What is so damn important about discovering THE debut of 2008 or whatever year? Does there have to be such a thing as THE debut of the year for there to be a nice selection of books? Is it more about having bragging rights and pimping this or that author/series/etc. first? I just don't know, as it seems rather pointless to me at times. People being disappointed that there is no "consensus" debut that is a "must-own/read?" What the hell?[/quote]

From my perspective I don't see what you are getting worked up about Dylan. I don't see anything wrong at all, let alone a heck of a lot, with someone coming to a forum and asking other posters what they think are the biggest releases of the year. I'm too much in tune with what is coming out every month to be asking that question myself, but I can imagine someone who is not as up-to-date as being curious about new, big releases. Seems totally natural to me.
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I think it's just a product of our consumerist culture. Something new is always better, because it is new. It's not limited to books, you can see it happen everywhere, from fashion to video games.

It's also a kind of vicious circle, as books that receive the most coverage are obviously the newest, and so people (sheeps?) will buy them, and so they will talk about them, and so they will give them even more coverage.

I guess it could be argued as well that very few books are timeless, and newest books will seem to be in synch with today's culture, making them more fit to be bought by the general public.

Having said that, though, I'm often found myself in contradiction with that "the" debut of the year, either because a book written years before by a guy who was never "the" debut was better and subsequently deserved to be read first, or it so happened that I preferred, or liked other books as much that year, so as far as I'm concerned that award is meaningless. Of course, it also happens that I would have centuries of "the"debut of the year to read first if I took it seriously, but overall, I prefer to read recommended good books, no matter if they were "the" debut or not. Maybe it also has to do with the fact I tend to buy somewhat old books and only get hyped enough to buy something in hardcover when it's the sequel of something I truly liked.
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[quote name='Calibandar' post='1370174' date='May 25 2008, 12.20']From my perspective I don't see what you are getting worked up about Dylan. I don't see anything wrong at all, let alone a heck of a lot, with someone coming to a forum and asking other posters what they think are the biggest releases of the year. I'm too much in tune with what is coming out every month to be asking that question myself, but I can imagine someone who is not as up-to-date as being curious about new, big releases. Seems totally natural to me.[/quote]
A good point.
What's the negative here? So, yeah, reviewers spend energy on trying to decide what is the big new debut, but so what? They're just doing it in the course of their work anyway.
Do people think it's harming the level of discourse?
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Honestly, I consider all "Hot New Release" and "This Is The Next Big Thing" claims by publishers to be hype and marketing, and I trust it as much as I trust similar ads on tv - which is to say, not at all.

Since 2001, there hasn't been a bookstore stocking fantasy within reasonable driving distance (and even less so nowadays with fuel prices so high). This means I have to do all my book shopping online. I was picky before when I could browse, though I did make impulsive buys now and then. But since I've had to go online, I've become much more selective. I now buy fantasy books nearly exclusively based on discussions on this board, and don't care one whit whether the book is considered "The Best New Novel Of Year X" or if it's an older book by an established author. Although this has led to the occasional disappointment, I've had many more successes than failures, and am quite satisfied with this method.
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