Cricket IV

[Jeor]

Time for a new thread - with the next Test between India and Australia starting up. Looks like India are off to a good start, winning the toss was a nice way to begin. Sehwag will be kicking himself about getting caught down the legside, but India have the batting firepower to capitalise on this pitch, especially with the debutant Siddle.

I don't think I'm exaggerating when I venture to suggest that this is the weakest Australian attack in decades. Lee is the only proven performer, although Johnson did well last Test. But basically we're down to those two bowlers. No spinner, Siddle is an unknown debutant and doesn't look like having a great deal of penetration, Watson, White and Michael Clarke don't qualify as full bowlers. Together with the flat pitch, this is basically screaming for India to score 500+. I really don't see the benefits of pursuing this Watson/White combination, especially with the attack so diluted already. Their all-round skills might be good in first-class cricket - both batting averages over 40, for example - and they might cut it in the smaller format of Twenty20s and ODIs, but they don't have any Test-level skills. That type of weakness is going to get exposed over five days of Test cricket.

[Horza]

This is true, but with our injuries and Symonds and Tait flaked out I'm not sure where the replacements are coming from - we're a little stretched for Test experienced bowlers at the moment.

[Jeor]

And as I speak, Australia's attack isn't doing a bad job of it with India down at 4/171. ;) The curse of the pre-emptive post strikes again! Although at least I can point out that I was partially accurate in that it's Lee and Johnson who are doing all the heavy lifting. I still can't see Siddle, Watson, White and Clarke providing many of the wickets.

India should be kicking themselves at wasting this great pitch, although with Tendulkar and Ganguly still in and Dhoni to come, they do have a chance of rescuing a good total out of this. Mishra appears to have a reasonable first-class average of 18.62 with 8 half-centuries in 77 matches and we know Harbhajan can be good for a swashbuckling innings at times. Mishra was a bit of a surprise...I thought if the selectors were going for another leggie they might have picked Chawla instead. Nevertheless the fact that they've picked two spinners and only two specialist pacemen will be interesting on this pitch.

[Paxter]

Fairly poor batting from India so far in this test. They should have taken some lessons from the first test - the most impressive partnerships in that match were those that took their time and gradually ground the opposition bowlers down. I don't know why Rahul Dravid suddenly wants to score quickly - his role is to ensure that batting collapses (like what just occurred) don't happen. Sachin and Saurav will have to dig in, otherwise it's Australia's day easily.

BTW congrats to Sachin on breaking the record. He may not hold it for too long though - Ricky still has a few years left in him I feel.

Edit: well so much for my prediction of Sachin and Saurav having to "grind it out". They did anything but that as they scored comfortable at 4 runs per over. This must be a good deck. I think India will need 500 to really be in the box seat. If they only get 400-425, they will have to bowl well.

[williamjm]

[quote name='Horza' post='1559043' date='Oct 17 2008, 08.38']This is true, but with our injuries and Symonds and Tait flaked out I'm not sure where the replacements are coming from - we're a little stretched for Test experienced bowlers at the moment.[/quote]

Is there a reason Nathan Bracken is never selected? He seems to be a fairly good bowlers in the one-day games and he has plenty of international experience from them.

[Stubby]

Dunno what the issue with Bracken is.

But I do know that we look to be somehwat deep in the shit at stumps on day two....

[Sir Thursday]

Well, Bangladesh seem to be doing pretty well against the New Zealanders - if it wasn't for Vettori, they'd be in an even worse position now. Have they won a test yet? Now is their chance - that pitch is only going to get better for the spinners, after all, and NZ will have to bat last...


Sir Thursday

[williamjm]

[quote name='Sir Thursday' post='1560315' date='Oct 18 2008, 19.36']Well, Bangladesh seem to be doing pretty well against the New Zealanders - if it wasn't for Vettori, they'd be in an even worse position now. Have they won a test yet? Now is their chance - that pitch is only going to get better for the spinners, after all, and NZ will have to bat last...[/quote]

I think they've won a test before (can't remember who they beat, although I'm guessing it might be Zimbabwe), but this does seem a good opportunity for them. That said, the Kiwis can be quite resourceful when they're in trouble so I wouldn't count them out, maybe all they need is one big innings from Brendan McCullum or Jacob Oram in the second innings.

[Jeor]

I think they've won a Test before, maybe against Zimbabwe...but not against a major Test nation? I confess I don't know that much about Bangladesh cricket. I think they'll have some trouble closing out the deal though; they've been in this sort of dominant situation before (such as against Australia before Gilchrist bailed us out, or I think there was another time against the Windies) but it takes a lot of guts to finish it off. NZ can only really improve in the match too, they've just batted extremely poorly, but they have batting well down the order and I expect they'll do better in their second innings. It would be great for Bangladeshi cricket if they won, though.

Australia were lucky to get India out for 'only' 469. With Dhoni powering along I thought 500+ was a foregone conclusion, but as it is, India didn't get to squeeze much staying power out of the tail, with Khan, Harbhajan and Sharma going cheaply (and not necessarily all down to great Australian bowling). Mishra looked like he had a decent first-class record but that was irrelevant when Dhoni was the next man out. I've always thought Dhoni has underachieved in Test cricket; he has a fantastic ODI record (average 47, strike rate 90) and unlike some bashers who succeed in ODIs but not Tests, he's a complete batsman who has a good defence, can pick the singles well, hits the ball cleanly, and has a mature mental game, so I don't see why he has underachieved in Tests. Anyway his innings was great to watch, and exactly what India needed.

Again it looks like Hussey is Australia's main hope. It was criminal to waste the 2nd day on a good batting wicket by losing four wickets. It looks like India made the right choice in playing two spinners though; Mishra picked up a couple and the pitch should get better for him and Harbhajan. Anyway, Australia's batting runs deep with Hussey, Watson, White, Haddin, and then Lee and Johnson who can bat a bit. It's time to see whether Watson/White/Haddin are Test-class batsmen. I have my doubts, but on a good batting wicket this is the time they can prove a few of the doubters wrong. ;)

[delete this account pls]

I think were in trouble. At this stage a draw is the best we can hope for. On paper our batting is deep, but I don't have a lot of confidence in Watson or White, and without Gilchrist now the lower order just [i]feels[/i] more vulnerable, even though I know Haddin is more than capable.

[Horza]

I have faith in the Huss, this is exactly where he does his best work.

[Sir Thursday]

Well, Australia are in real trouble now. Especially with Sehwag and Gambhir batting to the close. India will probably bat until a little before tea time and set them about 450-500. A rearguard action is possible, I suppose - batting for 4.5 sessions is possible, as it sounds like the pitch is still pretty good for batting...but Mishra and Harbhajan are going to cause them all sorts of problems. I think this match has showed just how much you need a decent spinner in India, and I think Australia's lack of one will cost them dearly.

Shakib (or Saqibul? I've seen that spelling around) seems to be having an incredible match for Bangladesh - 7-36 and now 71! I'm a little worried that Bangladesh haven't managed to score enough in their second innings - at the moment their lead stands at 258 with two second innings wickets in hand, and New Zealand have several players who are capable of leading their team in a run chase. They'll want to get it up towards the 300 region if at all possible, but they're down to the tail now, so that might be difficult. Still, it will be interesting to see if the Black Caps can handle the spin on a 4th day pitch, especially seeing as they couldn't handle it on Day 2.


Sir Thursday

[Jeor]

Well, Watson made a decent score, although White and Haddin fell cheaply. The way that India raced to 0/100 by stumps is an indictment on the Australian batting which was never in the hunt and it also shows the pitch is still good for batting. Australia just really fluffed their chance, and I really can't see any other outcome except defeat. India lead by 300 with two full days of play to go. Depending on how the pitch plays and whether it is starting to break up, I expect Dhoni to declare with a lead of around 500 and insert Australia just before tea tomorrow, to give himself roughly 4 sessions to bowl Australia out.

The batting was bad, but the bowling and tactics to allow India to get to 0/100 in the blink of an eye was even worse. After having put on such a terrible batting display, they compounded it with bad bowling and Ponting's field reluctance to put sweepers out there and in the right position was not a good look. He might want to play attacking positive cricket and taking bunches of wickets quickly was his only chance of actually winning the game, but once it became apparent his bowlers weren't backing that up, he should have posted a regular offside sweeper. It would at least have dried up the runs a bit more and helped in the long run for salvaging a draw. As it is, India's blitz in that last session has significantly eroded the prospects of a draw.

EDIT: Woo, Sir Thursday and I have the same prediction about Dhoni's declaration!

[Paxter]

Barring a very long and gringing Hussey or Ponting hundred in the second innings, I see no way out for Australia. Even if they bowl well tomorrow, they will still be facing 400+ in the second innings - a feat that is only very rarely achieved.

Although I probably shouldn't be pointing fingers before the test has reached its conclusion - I really feel as if I need to slam the Australian selectors. They have repeated exactly the mistakes made by the English selectors during the SA series:
1. Playing a batsman at No. 8
2. Picking debutants out of obscurity (Pattinson = Siddle)

OK, they got unlucky with McGain being injured, but I see no reason for the absence of Nathan Bracken in the team instead of Siddle (as has been suggested) and the absence of Casson, who clearly should have been picked on this tour in front of Krejza. If Mishra can come in and get 5 wickets on debut, then surely it's not to much to ask an up-and-coming Australian leggie to at least try and do likewise. And, hey, at least he is a specialist spinner.

Side-note: Well done to Shane Watson. That was an innings of great maturity and he has finally repaid some of the faith that the selectors have shown in him.

As for the Bangladesh game, it was great to see Shakib have success in the test arena - he has been one of their best players in one-dayers for quite some time now. I think the result will depend on how many runs the Tigers can get out of the tail tomorrow morning. If they can somehow scrape 290-300 then they will be clear favourites. 250 I think will be knocked off by the Black Caps, but not without some drama along the way.

Edit: Yeah, the Tigers' first test victory was against a depleted Zim team. IIRC, they also won the series when they drew the other match in the 2-test series.

Edit: Wow. Go Bangladesh, lead is just under 300 now. Are NZ going to be able to chase this?

[Jeor]

I think the ease at which India are scoring here (2/243 after 52 overs, run rate of 4.68) is likely to put off Dhoni's declaration. While India's bowlers are probably going to perform better than the Australian attack, it doesn't look like the pitch is deteriorating much. Paradoxically it'll mean he's giving himself less time to get them out when time is of the essence, but he wouldn't want to give Australia sniff, although with a lead of 450ish I'd say the game is safe.

I guess it depends on whether him and Ganguly can up the tempo even more. If they can score 100 runs in the next 20 overs to give an overall lead of 550, then Dhoni could comfortably put Australia in with a niggling little 6-8 overs before the tea break, and then unleash the bowlers after that.

[Horza]

He's got some fine calculations to do, this is a prime moment to grab the series by the scruff of the neck, if he leaves us enough time to draw it'd be a massive psychological blow after the dominant display India have put on.

[Horza]

bleck. Harbajhan striking at will - the two openers and Hussey in the space of two overs.

Goodnight, nurse.

EDIT: HOLY FUCK. No sooner do I finish type than he bowls Ponting lbw.

4/52.

[Jeor]

Well, I expected us to lose, but not quite so quickly as this seems to be happening. It's like the two teams are batting on completely different pitches. India were untroubled all throughout their second innings and could score runs comfortably, at a fast clip, and conjure up boundaries at will. Australia go out, hit a few, and then suddenly collapse in a "we're the English team of the 90s" manner (sorry Hereward, I had to find a joke somewhere).

I'm a little pedestrian about supporting Australia at the moment in any case, I think some of you will remember my disenchantment with them after the last Australia-India series played back home. The decline of the Australian team has been overanalysed, but I think it's just a bit like the West Indies decline. Lose two champion bowlers (McGrath and Warne, Ambrose and Walsh), sudden instability in the batting lineup when it had been fixed for years, and a great batsman from the glory years left to watch over the decline (Ponting, Richardson).

The strength of the Australian team in the last 15 years was its two all-time great bowlers and Gilchrist. As much as they racked up some big scores and had some world-class batsmen in the lineup (Steve Waugh, Ponting, Hayden, now Hussey), the thing that set them apart from all other teams was the killer wicketkeeper and two brilliant bowlers. Every other team in the world had some top-class batsmen and perhaps one great bowler, but no other team had the combination of attacking wicketkeeper and two great bowlers.

Granted, this is just one defeat about to happen. But while we may not see too many more defeats for the next few years, I expect we'll see less victories and more draws as we find it harder to bowl sides out. With McGrath and Warne, getting 20 wickets in a Test match in any given conditions was never really in question; now, I'm not so sure. We've still got good batsmen - Hussey, Ponting and Clarke will be around for a few years yet - so we'll be able to post some big scores for a while. And on favourable pitches - home in Australia, then perhaps in seamer-conditions England, pacy-tracks South Africa and dodgy-pitch West Indies - we'll probably still be able to bowl sides out. Though we will continue to be hard to beat, I expect we'll draw more often, and win by less.

[Horza]

Have to agree - we looked like we had something going in Stuart Clark, who has McGrath's niggling accuracy, but he's gotten out of form and we're now exposed. I've not been paying a lot of attention to the domestic scene but we don't appear to have unearthed any world-class spinners in the years since Warnie's impending retirement began to become an issue. Also psychologically we're just not used to this. (WATSON 4 OUT, LBW, Sharma, 5/58)

[sckma]

wow... australia really imploded around the 10 over mark. 5/9 in 10 overs.

clarke and haddin played pretty well to overcome these, and put up a 80 run partnership. Now India only need to get 5 wickets in a day's play. Can Clarke play a future captain's knock? TO be honest, if India get an early wicket, i expect them to win. however if these two hold for a while... the indian victory wont look that assured, especially with the long batting order australia has.