Jump to content

Another Economic Thread


Iskaral Pust

Recommended Posts

I notice a trend in these threads. We've moved past the panic, the end of days (what's the financial equivalent of the rapture?), we have/are niggling about how the bailout should work, but where to now?

We're a microcosm of the big picture. They should trade an index on us.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote name='Iskaral Pust' post='1605967' date='Dec 2 2008, 16.12']what's the financial equivalent of the rapture?[/quote]

Jesus comes back to earth and steals everyone's money, leaving us holding worthless plastic goods while he rolls around in huge piles of hundred-dollar bills on a cloud or something.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote]I notice a trend in these threads. We've moved past the panic, the end of days (what's the financial equivalent of the rapture?), we have/are niggling about how the bailout should work, but where to now?[/quote]

A long, slow decline, high inflation once these trillions hit the market place. I don't think we'll see real economic growth until we recover our manufacturing base and come back to a positive savings rate across the population. I think we'll be stagnat to recessive for at least 5 years. Longer if failing corporations keep getting handouts of inflated dollars. Unemployment will break 10%, as will inflation.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote name='Annelise' post='1606007' date='Dec 2 2008, 16.34']Ready for the upswing? Boy, am I! When is it coming? When will the housing market start coming back, say? Talking national trend.

Say Spring, say Spring..[/quote]


Spring.




[size=1]of 2015.[/size]
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote]Ready for the upswing? Boy, am I! When is it coming? When will the housing market start coming back, say? Talking national trend.

Say Spring, say Spring..[/quote]

Not a chance. My theory says spring-summer 2010. I think most of the foreclosures that are going to happen will have happened by then. Most of the layoffs too. A lot of the current foreclosures (representing about 30% of the market right now!) will [i]still[/i] be on the market.

Historically your house = 3x your annual income. I think the current market correction will continue until this is the case. With the average household income being about $50K, I believe housing will continue to fall until the average house sells for about $150K. Right now the median price is about 190K (if you don't include the midwest where no one wants to live anyway its more like 200K or so). So we have a ways to go yet, assuming median income stays the same, and the gov't doesn't do something stupid like buy up all the foreclosures.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote name='sologdin' post='1606054' date='Dec 2 2008, 11.00']bonus points for using the word [i]niggle[/i].



[i]should trade an index on us[/i]

already a board stock thread, aye?[/quote]

I meant an actual tradeable index. We could be the new VIX. We'd have to disclose our consituent make up (e.g. % libertarian), but no-one reads the details anyway before trading.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote name='Tormund Midgetsbane' post='1606002' date='Dec 2 2008, 10.32']A long, slow decline, high inflation once these trillions hit the market place. I don't think we'll see real economic growth until we recover our manufacturing base and come back to a positive savings rate across the population. I think we'll be stagnat to recessive for at least 5 years. Longer if failing corporations keep getting handouts of inflated dollars. Unemployment will break 10%, as will inflation.[/quote]

I remember in the 2004 National Election...one of the things that the Democrats accused the Bush Administration was that it was destroying the ability of the generation coming into the job market of never being able to find a job...

All I can see in the future is gigantic works program instituted by the Govenment...road building...solar panel building...windmill building...planting trees...building housing for the younger generation...A national electric rail system...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote name='HammerOfGod' post='1606225' date='Dec 2 2008, 18.46']All I can see in the future is gigantic works program instituted by the Govenment...road building...solar panel building...windmill building...planting trees...building housing for the younger generation...A national electric rail system...[/quote]

Whats so bad about thees things, wath i am seeing here is a list of infastructure that will stand around for a bit and overall be good for any country. if building this list of project is what that is neaded to take us out of this mess i would be happy, on might say something good coume out of it afther all if that would be the case.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In related news, protesters broke into Icelands [url="http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=40764&ew_0_a_id=316370"]Central Bank[/url].

We shouldn't have angered them. They will sail up the Hudson river in their longboats and raid Wall Street. It's actually part of a wider [url="http://www.grizzlybay.org/SarahPalinVikings.jpg"]conspiracy[/url] :stunned:
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote name='HammerOfGod' post='1606225' date='Dec 2 2008, 12.46']I remember in the 2004 National Election...one of the things that the Democrats accused the Bush Administration was that it was destroying the ability of the generation coming into the job market of never being able to find a job...

All I can see in the future is gigantic works program instituted by the Govenment...road building...solar panel building...windmill building...planting trees...building housing for the younger generation...A national electric rail system...[/quote]

I'm not opposed to some investment in infrastucture. What we have has been crumbling around us for decades. Better than spending on the military*, auto manufacturers, homeland "security", and a lot else besides.

*We no longer need an army to defend our territory, we have millions of heavily armed rednecks just waiting to shoot at any foreigners who try to invade. If we could just refrain from invading others, we could really cut our military spending.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Palin really needs to shut up. Is this the kind of stupidity we're too expect from hard right republicans for the next 4 years? Similar stuff has been said by Senators and congressmen.

[url="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/12/02/palin-campaign-is-over-%E2%80%98appreciated%E2%80%99-nga-meeting/"]http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/...99-nga-meeting/[/url]

[i]“When much of the economic problem that we are facing today perhaps was caused by too much debt, that solving those problems will not come from incurring more debt so we do have some concerns about these.[/i]

No you stupid dumb shits. The problem was not caused by too much debt. It was caused by insufficient regulation of the financial system. It's like Hoover all over again. Shout financial responsibility and fiscal discipline while the ship sinks under you. Fucking republicans and their free markets. Not like they had much loyalty to those issues when Bush was in power, so add to it they're hypocrites too.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whell dont you think a debt so hige that its questioneable that this generation will manage to pay it off, are a BIG problem? not that its what we need to look at right now so solve the situation, but i dont think on can just continue to borrow like its no tomorrow eighter.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote name='Cobblestones' post='1606546' date='Dec 2 2008, 22.27']In related news, protesters broke into Icelands [url="http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=40764&ew_0_a_id=316370"]Central Bank[/url].

We shouldn't have angered them. They will sail up the Hudson river in their longboats and raid Wall Street. It's actually part of a wider [url="http://www.grizzlybay.org/SarahPalinVikings.jpg"]conspiracy[/url] :stunned:[/quote]

sad storry that of iceland, read at the same web page that [url="http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=16567&ew_0_a_id=316369"]Left-Greens[/url] are rated as iceland's most populare party whit 32%.
i see some of the simmilare whit my own country's pollings, namely that the far right parties are loosing voters and that the "political" scale are wiping more towards the left.

so any one have any reflection how this crisis might affect a more long terme political landscape of the world? i heard that india the worlds largest democraty have a fairly large communist party, maybe they will get some real influence on the second largest country in the world:dunno:
what do you think?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote]No you stupid dumb shits. The problem was not caused by too much debt.[/quote]

In fact a HUGE portion of the problem is caused by too much debt. Pretty much the whole problem is sitting on the back of debt based security instruments that people assumed would never default. The "foreclosure crisis" is caused by debt that consumers took on and could not pay. "Too much debt" is in fact an understatement of the problem.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What you are talking about is debt relationships between people and banks/mortgage companies. Yes too many loans were given out, too little requirements put on them and when it collapsed it collapsed hard. That was due to the lack and failure of regulations.

What Palin and Sanford are talking about is not that, but talking about federal deficits. They are scared by deficits and are using it to block stimulus programs. It is a completely different matter from what you discussed Tormund. Heck now on 1600 they played the clip by Sanford that said what "we've done all this stimulus and it hasn't worked" and "what we need is entepreneurs and more free market economy".

Both Krugman and Pearlstein here called him basically an idiot. There hasn't been any job based stimulus yet. It's all been trying to shore up the financial system so the world doesn't plunge into the shitter, aka 1930. It's know nothing fear based economics that once again panders to your base. I'm sorry but we can't let the idiots bring us into Great Depression 2 because of adherence to outdated ideologies.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The funny thing is that most economists, conservative and liberal alike are together in that a strong stimulus plan must be undertaken, and that in order to do that a couple years of high deficits will happen. The politicians (not all, just the most conversative, you don't see Arnie acting like Sanford/Palin) are pretty much calling for a bunker mentality. This is basically what Hoover did in 30-32 with catastophic results. That only by hunkering down, by cutting spending, by returning to fiscal balance will things be better. Sorry but the historical facts don't back this type of thinking up. It is counterproductive and punishes millions of people in the sake of free market ideology.

So in the campaign we had people paint Obama as a socialist when his record was nothing but (he's quite moderate for a dem) as well as other fear based smears. Now we have people proposing policies that will guaranteed bring us into a depression, even though the economists on their side (even McCain's campaign ones) agree with liberal economists in what needs done.

Here is a good contrast of the fear based right vs the realists. (and crazy enough Ben Stein is a realist, but he did major in Economics at Columbia.)

[url="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAEAMJ76KHk"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAEAMJ76KHk[/url]

Cavuto just mindlessly repeats right wing fear mantras while Ben Stein literally has to yell at him to tell him what needs to be done.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote]I meant an actual tradeable index. We could be the new VIX. We'd have to disclose our consituent make up (e.g. % libertarian), but no-one reads the details anyway before trading.[/quote] Huh? What? Are you serious?

[quote]Not a chance. My theory says spring-summer 2010. I think most of the foreclosures that are going to happen will have happened by then. Most of the layoffs too. A lot of the current foreclosures (representing about 30% of the market right now!) will still be on the market.[/quote]

Pretty much my stance. Housing prices still have to come down quite a bit, and quite a few corporations, banks, ect need to have last rites pronounced over them so they can be declared dead.

What concerns me at this point is will the `recovery' be 'real': that is based on things that are *really* sustainable - or will it be based on `more of the same'? (ery bad idea with the impending resource `crunch'.)

[quote]All I can see in the future is gigantic works program instituted by the Govenment...road building...solar panel building...windmill building...planting trees...building housing for the younger generation...A national electric rail system...[/quote]

All desperately needed in the world to come just a half decade or so off.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...