The grand Faceless Men conspiracy theory

[Toe]

Why rely on a rebellion/war when you have, supposedly, faceless men, one of the best assassin guilds in the world, to use? Rhaegar could have just slipped, like Balon Greyjoy did. From a horse even. I mean, Jaqen could make that bitch that was so loyal to Weese kill him, another faceless man could make a random animal try to kill Rhaegar.

True, they could not count on Robert killing Rhaegar at that moment. I should correct the theory to that the hoped for results of the rebellion would be to 1) induce a burning of KL in order to hatch the dragons 2) weaken the realm since with dragons the Others would relatively soon arrive after breaking the Wall 3) hopefully kill a bunch of good leaders in the battles including Rhaegar. If Rhaegar survived the battles, he could be killed more directly although this is always somewhat risky especially with someone as guarded as an heir.

I am not arguing that the FM plan everything in detail and that everything goes perfectly for them without setbacks. They are more like an advanced version of LF. Setting things in motion with a general goal and playing along according to what happens. If everything does not work out as they hoped, then they try again.

[The Demon of Darry]

It's an intresting theory, well written. But the part about Varys - it doesn't make sense to me that he's a Faceless man. When he assumes the identity of the under goaler, or of the begging brother, he uses acting techniques to disguise himself. it's refrenced that as a child he traveled with a groups of mummers, and presumably learned these tricks from them. If he were a faceless man he could just change his face for each identity.

[spitsphyre]

Personally I don't feel like Qyburn IS as adept as Varys at getting information, I feel like the observation Cersei made was to reassure herself rather than based in fact.

But the rest of the theory is pretty good.

EDITED:

I TOTALLY got carried away. Forgot how long this thread was, sorry! If this was already cover I'm sorry. (SCREW YOU, FAST REPLY!)

[Value Dollaeris]

1. Those resurrected from death by fire magic by Thoros are clearly different from the ice wights. Un-Beric is brought back multiple times and is apparently the same except that he starting to loose his memories. That Un-Cat has difficulty talking is due to the damage to her throat. In contrast, ice wights have blue eyes, black hands, and are apparently zombies without higher mental functions.

Yes, both ice and fire magic deals with death. But in different ways.

2. We do not know exactly how the Doom occurred or how Valyria was destroyed.

3. No, the FM seem to price according to how important the victim is. Not according to how much a person can pay. ""Do you have any idea how costly they are?” Littlefinger complained. "You could hire an army of common sellswords for half the price, and that’s for a merchant. I don’t dare think what they might ask for a princess.""

Regarding the evidence for the theory, see the numerous points of evidence presented in is favor.

1. Yes and No. Clearly UnBeric and Stoneheart are different from the ice wights but not so different from Coldhands who seems capable of thought (and may or may not be capable of acting independently). As you point out, UnBeric becoming increasingly wight-like. UnCat is no longer a POV character which raises questions -- does she have will? Is she a thing or a person? I think Martin used the 'grave' descriptor deliberately. We already know that the forces of ice are bad news -- lots of indications that the forces of fire are also bad news -- fire demands sacrifice, fire casts shadows, Stannis' sword is called Light Bringer (Lucifer) fer R'hllor's sake.

Give me a few days and I'll try and dig up the description of stoneheart's voice.

In any case we agree that fire and ice magic involves death magic. I think Martin believes that Fire and Ice are two sides of the same coin. Likes like in Norse Mythology Fire giants and Ice giants are really two faces of the destructive forces of the world. Flame or Frost -- both types giants want to end the world. One group wants to see it reduced to ashes, another want to see it covered in snow.

2. True, we don't know exactly how it happened. But it did leave behind a smoking sea, suggesting that Valyria's doom was something like Pomeii's doom. I think you are probably right that the FM played a role -- I just don't think that they embraced 'ice' exclusively.

3. Mmmm. That's littlefinger's assessment but he misunderstands the FM as an assassin's guild. LF thinks like an accountant -- what is the fee for a given service? The FM, on the other hand, think in terms of sacrifice, gifts and balance.

FFC 737 The waif speaking to UnArya: "[My step mother] should have sought the favor of the Many Faced God, but she could not bear the sacrifice he would ask of her. Instead, she thought to poison me herself. It left me as you see me now, but I did not die . . . [my father] came here and made sacrifice, offering up all his wealth and me. Him of Many Faces heard his prayer. I was brought to the temple to serve, and my father's wife received the gift."

As you've said, the FM don't care about wealth, luxury and so one but they do believe in sacrifice (2/3rd of one's wealth and a daughter) and they do believe in balance (three deaths for three lives).

On balance

Remember the description of the doors of the FM temple: "The left-hand door was made of weirwood pale as one, the right of gleaming ebony. In their center was a carved moon face; ebony on the weirwood, weirwood on the ebony." A symbol of balance, a symbo for a set of beliefs that sees opposing forces a twin aspects of the of same truth, a symbol that shows that polar opposites have aspects of each other contained within them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yin_and_yang

Anyway, fun theory, nicely done :)

[Toe]

1. Yes and No. Clearly UnBeric and Stoneheart are different from the ice wights but not so different from Coldhands who seems capable of thought (and may or may not be capable of acting independently). As you point out, UnBeric becoming increasingly wight-like. UnCat is no longer a POV character which raises questions -- does she have will? Is she a thing or a person? I think Martin used the 'grave' descriptor deliberately. We already know that the forces of ice are bad news -- lots of indications that the forces of fire are also bad news -- fire demands sacrifice, fire casts shadows, Stannis' sword is called Light Bringer (Lucifer) fer R'hllor's sake.

Give me a few days and I'll try and dig up the description of stoneheart's voice.

In any case we agree that fire and ice magic involves death magic. I think Martin believes that Fire and Ice are two sides of the same coin. Likes like in Norse Mythology Fire giants and Ice giants are really two faces of the destructive forces of the world. Flame or Frost -- both types giants want to end the world. One group wants to see it reduced to ashes, another want to see it covered in snow.

2. True, we don't know exactly how it happened. But it did leave behind a smoking sea, suggesting that Valyria's doom was something like Pomeii's doom. I think you are probably right that the FM played a role -- I just don't think that they embraced 'ice' exclusively.

3. Mmmm. That's littlefinger's assessment but he misunderstands the FM as an assassin's guild. LF thinks like an accountant -- what is the fee for a given service? The FM, on the other hand, think in terms of sacrifice, gifts and balance.

FFC 737 The waif speaking to UnArya: "[My step mother] should have sought the favor of the Many Faced God, but she could not bear the sacrifice he would ask of her. Instead, she thought to poison me herself. It left me as you see me now, but I did not die . . . [my father] came here and made sacrifice, offering up all his wealth and me. Him of Many Faces heard his prayer. I was brought to the temple to serve, and my father's wife received the gift."

As you've said, the FM don't care about wealth, luxury and so one but they do believe in sacrifice (2/3rd of one's wealth and a daughter) and they do believe in balance (three deaths for three lives).

On balance

Remember the description of the doors of the FM temple: "The left-hand door was made of weirwood pale as one, the right of gleaming ebony. In their center was a carved moon face; ebony on the weirwood, weirwood on the ebony." A symbol of balance, a symbo for a set of beliefs that sees opposing forces a twin aspects of the of same truth, a symbol that shows that polar opposites have aspects of each other contained within them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yin_and_yang

Anyway, fun theory, nicely done :)

1. Exactly what Coldhands is is really unclear. If anything he seems more aligned with a third magic force of nature magic (direwolves, children of the forest, greenseers) than either fire magic or cold magic.

Not saying that all ice magic is all bad or all fire magic is all good. May well be more like tools that may be used for good or bad purposes.

Do not see un-Beric becoming increasingly wightlike. No sign of having blue eyes or black hands. Memory loss can well be explained by repeated brain damage from asphyxia before being resurrected.

2. Could be lot of things tbat was the exact cause of the Doom. Volcanoes, meteorites, earthquake... The children of the forest supposedly had the power to destroy a landbridge between Westeros and the eastern continent. The theory does not state the Doom itself was causally caused directly by cold magic. The FM prefers to work indirectly.

3. Even if one does not believe in money or power for oneself one may well use it for some other purpose.

I see nothing in your quote indicating that the price or sacrifice is different for different persons wanting someone killed.

Regardless of what a FM assassins says to a years old girl (covered in the theory section) or their front door there is no evidence of balance in their temple (only death gods and killing people) or in what the kindly man says to Arya about the many-faced god. If it was a "balance" religion, then life would be as important as death. But only death is mentioned.

[Value Dollaeris]

1. Exactly what Coldhands is is really unclear. If anything he seems more aligned with a third magic force of nature magic (direwolves, children of the forest, greenseers) than either fire magic or cold magic.

Not saying that all ice magic is all bad or all fire magic is all good. May well be more like tools that may be used for good or bad purposes.

Do not see un-Beric becoming increasingly wightlike. No sign of having blue eyes or black hands. Memory loss can well be explained by repeated brain damage from asphyxia before being resurrected.

2. Could be lot of things tbat was the exact cause of the Doom. Volcanoes, meteorites, earthquake... The children of the forest supposedly had the power to destroy a landbridge between Westeros and the eastern continent. The theory does not state the Doom itself was causally caused directly by cold magic. The FM prefers to work indirectly.

3. Even if one does not believe in money or power for oneself one may well use it for some other purpose.

I see nothing in your quote indicating that the price or sacrifice is different for different persons wanting someone killed.

Regardless of what a FM assassins says to a years old girl (covered in the theory section) or their front door there is no evidence of balance in their temple (only death gods and killing people) or in what the kindly man says to Arya about the many-faced god. If it was a "balance" religion, then life would be as important as death. But only death is mentioned.

1. "May well be more like tools that may be used for good or bad purposes." Exactly. Which makes me think that the FM don't have a preference for ice or fire -- they worship death and will use either fire or ice to bring the gift of death.

Coldhands -- you could be right. Perhaps he is wight freed by earth magic or perhaps he is the 13th commander of the wall who found a way use ice magic against the Others.

Wightlike -- I don't think the blue eyes and black hands are essential characteristics. Sure they show that these zombies are animated by ice magic but the essential difference between wights and humans is that the wights were dead people walking around. A steam powered locomotive and diesel powered locomotive are 'animated' by different forces but they both run on tracks and pull freight. Ymir has white skin and blue eyes and Surtur has black skin and flaming sword. These are differences are important when compared to another -- frost giants and fire giants are opposing forces but when you compare giants to humans, these seeming essential differences become superficial: they are both giants and they are both bad news.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ymir

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surtr

Thus far, the essential difference between the ice undead and the fire undead is intelligence: those raised by the Other do not display intelligence, those raised by the red priests do but unBeric is losing his mind making him more like an ice wight. Coldhands looks to be animated by ice magic and he seems capable of thought . . . So, these two opposing forces are looking increasingly similar.

2. Meh. If the doom came by meteor strike why would the kindly man tell UnArya about firewyrms and deep, hot mines? All signs point to volcanic activity.

3. I think LF made a similar mistake to the one that Viserys made. Viserys thought that he and Drogo had a deal, a transaction, a bargain, whathaveyou: I give you a queen, you give me an army. But he didn't understand the Dothraki gift culture -- A gift is given and the recipient might give a gift in turn.

LF thinks -- the FM are a guild. I pay you X amount and you do Y for me. We now know that the FM are a religion. Under its tenets -- the supplicant sacrifices and that is taken as a sign that the gift is to be given to someone.

Lots will depend on the conversation between Arya and the kindly man -- is she only being punished for returning as Arya or she also being forced to sacrifice for the gift she gave to someone else?

Okay, I'm skating on thin ice with the balance theory. I'm making much out of: 1. the official symbol of the house of black and white and 2. the idea that 3 lives need to be balanced by 3 deaths. Having said that, I don't see any signs that the FM want everyone to die and lots of indications that getting them to kill someone is no easy task.

UnArya isn't a young girl, she an acolyte being instructed in the ways of the faith. Part of the difficulty ( and part of the fun ) is that the instruction involves detecting lies.

"I see nothing in your quote indicating that the price or sacrifice is different for different persons wanting someone killed."

Notice that a few sentences later the waif and Arya begin talking about relative amounts -- all of one's wealth, 2/3rds of one's wealth and not about -- 10,000 gold dragons for a king, 2,000 for a knight, etc. LF believes that princesses are worth more than merchants but I'm not sure if a religion borne out of a slave revolt values people according to their aristocratic titles.

Anyway, you might be (mostly) right about Varys -- he could be faceless man. I'd put the odds at about 80 percent.

[Toe]

1. "May well be more like tools that may be used for good or bad purposes." Exactly. Which makes me think that the FM don't have a preference for ice or fire -- they worship death and will use either fire or ice to bring the gift of death.

Coldhands -- you could be right. Perhaps he is wight freed by earth magic or perhaps he is the 13th commander of the wall who found a way use ice magic against the Others.

Wightlike -- I don't think the blue eyes and black hands are essential characteristics. Sure they show that these zombies are animated by ice magic but the essential difference between wights and humans is that the wights were dead people walking around. A steam powered locomotive and diesel powered locomotive are 'animated' by different forces but they both run on tracks and pull freight. Ymir has white skin and blue eyes and Surtur has black skin and flaming sword. These are differences are important when compared to another -- frost giants and fire giants are opposing forces but when you compare giants to humans, these seeming essential differences become superficial: they are both giants and they are both bad news.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ymir

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surtr

Thus far, the essential difference between the ice undead and the fire undead is intelligence: those raised by the Other do not display intelligence, those raised by the red priests do but unBeric is losing his mind making him more like an ice wight. Coldhands looks to be animated by ice magic and he seems capable of thought . . . So, these two opposing forces are looking increasingly similar.

2. Meh. If the doom came by meteor strike why would the kindly man tell UnArya about firewyrms and deep, hot mines? All signs point to volcanic activity.

3. I think LF made a similar mistake to the one that Viserys made. Viserys thought that he and Drogo had a deal, a transaction, a bargain, whathaveyou: I give you a queen, you give me an army. But he didn't understand the Dothraki gift culture -- A gift is given and the recipient might give a gift in turn.

LF thinks -- the FM are a guild. I pay you X amount and you do Y for me. We now know that the FM are a religion. Under its tenets -- the supplicant sacrifices and that is taken as a sign that the gift is to be given to someone.

Lots will depend on the conversation between Arya and the kindly man -- is she only being punished for returning as Arya or she also being forced to sacrifice for the gift she gave to someone else?

Okay, I'm skating on thin ice with the balance theory. I'm making much out of: 1. the official symbol of the house of black and white and 2. the idea that 3 lives need to be balanced by 3 deaths. Having said that, I don't see any signs that the FM want everyone to die and lots of indications that getting them to kill someone is no easy task.

UnArya isn't a young girl, she an acolyte being instructed in the ways of the faith. Part of the difficulty ( and part of the fun ) is that the instruction involves detecting lies.

"I see nothing in your quote indicating that the price or sacrifice is different for different persons wanting someone killed."

Notice that a few sentences later the waif and Arya begin talking about relative amounts -- all of one's wealth, 2/3rds of one's wealth and not about -- 10,000 gold dragons for a king, 2,000 for a knight, etc. LF believes that princesses are worth more than merchants but I'm not sure if a religion borne out of a slave revolt values people according to their aristocratic titles.

Anyway, you might be (mostly) right about Varys -- he could be faceless man. I'd put the odds at about 80 percent.

1. The FM's valyrian slave masters clearly were expert fire magic users which would make the FM antagonistic towards fire magic. We know of no "hybrid" magic users. All belong to one school.

There are other differences besidew blue eyes, black hands, and intelligence. The wights do not seem to feel pain and to be completely fearless unlike animals without higher intelligence. The wights seem highly susceptible to fire while ordinary weapons have little effect. They only rise at night. In contrast, fire resurrection seems to restore all former human characteristics except for some memory loss (which can be explained by brain damage due to lack of oxygen, the resurrection clearly does not heal all of whatever caused the person to be killed since there are hideous scars left behind).

Coldhands is something different from both wights and those resurrected by fire. Maybe he once was a wight but now he seems to be in the "nature" magic camp and to be antagonistic to the wights (remember the ravens attacking the wights attacking Sam) as well as being friendly to Bran (who is a warg, possibly a greenseer).

2. There were likely volcanoes before the Doom and there are likely volcanoes after the Doom. Does not mean that the Doom itself necessarily involved them. We really have not information regarding exactly what caused it.

3. No, no one has ever said directly that the FM want everyone killed (in which case the theory would not be theory anymore). But I think that the theory presents much indirect evidence for this.

That someone must give up 2/3 of their wealth does not mean that this applies to all other persons for the same victim. It happened to be 2/3 for this particular person; for anther person with different wealth having the same person killed would mean some other proportion of wealth, possibly beyond the ability of the person to pay, if the price itself if fixed in absolute units. LFs statement indicates that the price depends on the person to be killed; not on the person wanting someone killed. No other statements contradicts this.

I consider what happens inside the temple and what Arya is told by the kindly man, clearly someone high in the FM hierarchy, after Arya has been accepted as a novice to be more trustworthy than what JH tells a girl he meets on the road who may or may not ever survive and decide to travel to Braavos. JH never mentions or swears by the many-faced god or any of the death gods seen in the temple and mentioned by the kindly man; I see little value in his statements and claims as explained in the theory.

Regarding the front doors here is another similar pair of doors "To her right, a set of wide wooden doors had been thrown open. They were fashioned of ebony and weirwood, the black and white grains swirling and twisting in strange interwoven patterns." This is interestingly enough the doors to the room with false illusions of the Undying in the House of the Undying...

[Value Dollaeris]

1. The FM's valyrian slave masters clearly were expert fire magic users which would make the FM antagonistic towards fire magic. We know of no "hybrid" magic users. All belong to one school.

There are other differences besidew blue eyes, black hands, and intelligence. The wights do not seem to feel pain and to be completely fearless unlike animals without higher intelligence. The wights seem highly susceptible to fire while ordinary weapons have little effect. They only rise at night. In contrast, fire resurrection seems to restore all former human characteristics except for some memory loss (which can be explained by brain damage due to lack of oxygen, the resurrection clearly does not heal all of whatever caused the person to be killed since there are hideous scars left behind).

Coldhands is something different from both wights and those resurrected by fire. Maybe he once was a wight but now he seems to be in the "nature" magic camp and to be antagonistic to the wights (remember the ravens attacking the wights attacking Sam) as well as being friendly to Bran (who is a warg, possibly a greenseer).

2. There were likely volcanoes before the Doom and there are likely volcanoes after the Doom. Does not mean that the Doom itself necessarily involved them. We really have not information regarding exactly what caused it.

3. No, no one has ever said directly that the FM want everyone killed (in which case the theory would not be theory anymore). But I think that the theory presents much indirect evidence for this.

That someone must give up 2/3 of their wealth does not mean that this applies to all other persons for the same victim. It happened to be 2/3 for this particular person; for anther person with different wealth having the same person killed would mean some other proportion of wealth, possibly beyond the ability of the person to pay, if the price itself if fixed in absolute units. LFs statement indicates that the price depends on the person to be killed; not on the person wanting someone killed. No other statements contradicts this.

I consider what happens inside the temple and what Arya is told by the kindly man, clearly someone high in the FM hierarchy, after Arya has been accepted as a novice to be more trustworthy than what JH tells a girl he meets on the road who may or may not ever survive and decide to travel to Braavos. JH never mentions or swears by the many-faced god or any of the death gods seen in the temple and mentioned by the kindly man; I see little value in his statements and claims as explained in the theory.

Regarding the front doors here is another similar pair of doors "To her right, a set of wide wooden doors had been thrown open. They were fashioned of ebony and weirwood, the black and white grains swirling and twisting in strange interwoven patterns." This is interestingly enough the doors to the room with false illusions of the Undying in the House of the Undying...

1. Sure those differences exist but I'm taking the memory loss -- which you rightly say could be due to brain damage -- as foreshadowing that all is not well with the resurrection magic. Wild guess -- fire magic consumes, and each revival consumes a bit more of the personality. We'll know in a few weeks -- are the fire undead on the path to zombiedom or no? I'm guessing that the differences will narrow after 5 or 6 resurrections

2. Yeah. I could see a meteor, the comet or some such playing a role in the destruction but I think that the doom must have involved volcanic activity. To believe otherwise would require: 1. seeing the presence of the smoking sea as a minor detail 2. making the bits about fire wyrms and such 'decorative' info. Why not have the slaves laboring in salt mines? I'm staying with the volcanic theory and reaffirm my guess that Doom #2 is about to hit dragonstone. We're being let to believe to that Mel is misreading the fire -- that Dany has already released the dragon from the stone but I'm guessing that she might have it partially right -- 'the dragon' will escape from from dragonstone but 'the dragon' will be fire and ash.

3. Hmm. Perhaps I misunderstood something -- we agree that Others want to blanket the world in ice and make the living into wights, right? If the FM were on team ice wouldn't they want that as well?

Sure, the FM might have some antipathy towards fire magic -- but antipathy does not equal outright opposition. JH does swear by all the gods but he only adds the gods of fire reluctantly. Btw, JH did swear by the god of death -- we know that the FM believe that all the gods are faces of the one, so to swear by all is to swear by the god of death.

I'm not so sure that FM religion is hierarchical like the religion of the seven. If the seven is the catholic church then the seven might be something like the early protestants -- we are all equal but some are more equal than others. If so, the kindly man is clearly first amongst equals but I don't think he is the pope. I think the waif can instruct and JH can deliver the doctrine.

Admittedly the protestant comparison isn't the greatest -- the FM seem like one part tao, one part buddhist (life is suffering, death is the end of suffering), and one part hassasin.

Sacrifice is another bit we will have to wait on -- I'm as willing to dismiss LF and you are to dismiss JH. I don't think LF understands the FM and I think his misunderstanding is as great as Viserys' misunderstanding of the Dothraki.

Interesting -- I missed that door. Makes me wonder if the undying were a FM heresy?

[BurnedCrow]

Varys being a FM seems a bit far stretched to me, especially given he met Illyrio Mopatis in Pentos after rising to power in Myr. Neither of which are Braavos. Contrast the manner in which he kills Kevan Lannister at the end of DwD, compared to other FM killings we have witnessed in the books (JH's three, the Ugly Little Girl's one) FM kill like Ninja's. Varys kills like the Mafia. Also, it would make no sense why Varys had remained in King's Landing for so long. Who did the FM send him there to "give the gift" to?

[Arianne Flint]

My take on "Valar Morghulis" and the whole FM religion was that it's similar to some of the present-day world's Eastern religions (specifically Zen Buddhism corrupted in a strange way). The "ying & yang" symbol, etc. I think the "All Men Must Die" is similar to the Buddhist concept of killing the "self" and ending suffering. Not die literally, but to kill the ego, the "self", which is why the kindly man asks Arya "Who are you?" and being disappointed in Arya's answer of "No One" (because she has not let Arya Stark go).

[Night Gathers]

Extremely well written theory. :bowdown: