Dragon sighting at Winterfell?!?

[Mr. Natural]

I guess that just seems weak to me because that damage could be from basically anything. for one thing, if you light fires, the right kind of stone just explodes when heated. air trapped inside and all. anyway, it would be the kind of thing that would be explained by the Winterfell Dragon, but it doesn't seem to me that it makes the Winterfell Dragon more likely.

Stone melts at around 1500° C. To put that in perspective let's look at the temperature of different flames:

* Red

o Just visible: 525 °C (977 °F)

o Dull: 700 °C (1,292 °F)

o Cherry, dull: 800 °C (1,470 °F)

o Cherry, full: 900 °C (1,650 °F)

o Cherry, clear: 1,000 °C (1,830 °F)

* Orange

o Deep: 1,100 °C (2,010 °F)

o Clear: 1,200 °C (2,190 °F)

* White

o Whitish: 1,300 °C (2,370 °F)

o Bright: 1,400 °C (2,550 °F)

o Dazzling: 1,500 °C (2,730 °F)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire#Typical_temperatures_of_fires_and_flames

Unless wildfire was used I have a hard time believing that a normal fire could of reduced the First Keep to rubble.

[Errant Bard]

He's not talking of stone melting, he's talking of stone exploding due to impurities/air/water in it.

Certainly when the whole castle is supposed to have a geothermal source coursing through his walls, such stuff isn't unexpected.

While I'm at it, I should point that there's nothing about dragons hibernating millenias, underground, in the text. It'd be like affirmating that because we see live dogs in reality and we have some proverb about letting the sleeping dogs lie, then it points at dogs being able to hibernate for millenias.

Dany woke the dragons from stone, and Mel is misinterpreting stuff. (and we pretty much know from the house of Undying prophecy that any "stone" dragon would be a lie, anyway, a false dragon, not a real one)

[Mr. Natural]

I think it's more likely the dragon was petrified and was either awoken due do the mayhem, possibly something involving the line "there must always be a Stark in Winterfell" or a third possibility would be Bran somehow awoke it. Mel is looking for a stone dragon in Westeros afterall, so it's not that unlikely that there is in fact a stone dragon. Maybe Bran the Builder used a petrified dragon as the power source for Winterfell when he first built the First Keep.

[Civfan]

No books on me, haven't read them in a little while so a bit rusty, and new to the board so sorry if I'm leaving out anything huge. (Or if I've missed anything anyone said upthread.)

Isn't King's Blood important to reviving dragons? There was a fire, and while it wasn't any hotter for the dragon than the hot springs it is probably more symbolic, or a reagent in the spell. Fire, check, but what about the blood? A lot of people died at Winterfell but did any kings die around this time? When did Joffrey die?

"Blood" may not necessarily require a death, or maybe the death doesn't need to be immediate. There had been several 'king' deaths recently, if you include Ned. He might not literally be a king, but neither was Drogo. He was a ruler, and at the time of his death he was legally in charge of the country, right? Plus, he had the blood of kings in him, which is more important than any legal titles. So if title, power, or heritage might qualify you as a 'king' for the purposes of dragon-waking, Ned could count. So could any of his kids, and Theon too (due to his father claiming to be a king..)

I saw a few people saying there should be witnesses... what if the dragon killed them all? If we assume it's a grown dragon, perhaps the men were mostly gone but left a few behind to get burning. A huge pillar of smoke would attract attention, so better to get the slow moving army away from the scene before torching the place. The dragon killed everybody he saw, then took off and has continued to do so. A few people go missing, a few houses torched, not entirely uncommon in this time of war right? It's unlikely anyone seeing a dragon wouldn't mention it, but if they get eaten it becomes more plausible. Alternatively, the dragon flies very high and went somewhere even more remote. Beyond the wall, out to the mountains, etc.

The comet seems much more likely, with the fire eating the stars being the sunrise or the fire itself, or the comet crashing. A dragon is a possibility, though, and I think I remember someone having a dragon up north long ago. Maybe it stayed?

[Errant Bard]

Isn't King's Blood important to reviving dragons?

That's what she said. Melisandre, that is. But she's likely entirely mistaken and believes she needs king's blood (and fire) because Dany woke up her dragons from stone with three lives, one of them being a king, and the Red priests somehow go a vision and misinterpreted it extremely bad.

[Sidonie]

And maybe you need King's blood to hatch newborn baby dragons, but not to wake a hibernating one. If this was a dragon, and it was already breathing fire on the day it was released from Winterfell, it was much older already than Dany's dragons.

[Alcatur]

As to witnesess in immediate vincity of Winterfell - there were clearly no witnesses to Ramsey attack; he propably made sure of that, by killing anyone who could be. So if the alleged dragon woke up soon after burning the keep, when Dreadfort men were gone, its quite possible that noone saw it.

If someone saw it later, then it's quite possible that we don't know it yet. North is a huge area and word travels slowly; also sonn after sacking of Winterfell, all communication with the south was cut off due to Ironborn sacking the Moat Cailin - rumors couldn;t travel, and I doubt that lords would bother to send ravens with informations about folk tales. ALso Jon at the Wall had no contact with the general population of the North - so it's possible that the rumors ahvn't reached any POV yet.

As to "there must be Stark in WInterfell" - I always suposed that the wall would fall if thee was no Stark i the north, but dragon propably makes as much sense :)

[Lord Godric]

I think the line is nothing more than the Direwolf describing something he doesn't understand using descriptions he is familiar with. It happens every time we see Bran warg into Summer.

[AHackeySackOfIceAndFire]

He's not talking of stone melting, he's talking of stone exploding due to impurities/air/water in it.

Certainly when the whole castle is supposed to have a geothermal source coursing through his walls, such stuff isn't unexpected.

Exactly.

While I'm at it, I should point that there's nothing about dragons hibernating millenias, underground, in the text. It'd be like affirmating that because we see live dogs in reality and we have some proverb about letting the sleeping dogs lie, then it points at dogs being able to hibernate for millenias.

It's true that there is nothing direct about it in the text, but its not the same as the dogs thing. Dragons are magical, and it's not out of the question for them to do magical things, like breathe fire or live a super long time, whereas with dogs, it's kind of ridiculous. In fact, we know that dragons can, in some cases, live for a super long time, and that is kind of a prerequisite for hibernating for a super long time. I'm not saying that Martin has flat out told us his dragons are capable of hibernating for 8000 years -- but the door is open. They have potentially long lifespans, and Osha offhandedly mentioned waking sleeping dragons. Interesting, is all.

Dany woke the dragons from stone, and Mel is misinterpreting stuff. (and we pretty much know from the house of Undying prophecy that any "stone" dragon would be a lie, anyway, a false dragon, not a real one)

This interpretation appeals to me, because it relies only on Mel and other Red Priests being Stupid. I definitely think Mel's got it wrong -- but I also don't think that precludes a completely different, unforeseen awakening of a dragon from stone.

[AvengingAryaFan]

I still don't really get why it's less believable. I think my two cents i'd like to add to this thread are:

People Are Stupid.

...

In pursuit of dragons, much blood has been shed. -- and it was loud, and hard to see, and the dragon was fast. That does it for me.

Liked your post, HackeySack, and the conclusion. I like most of the overlooked theories.

I think the line is nothing more than the Direwolf describing something he doesn't understand using descriptions he is familiar with. It happens every time we see Bran warg into Summer.

Right, he understands winged snakes breathing fire. Everyday sort of thing, ho hum.

HackeySack, I've come to favor the Winterfell Dragon theory. Wonder what Dany's little stripling dragons will think when they come up to a real, old dragon.

[Yarl Snow]

As to "there must be Stark in WInterfell" - I always suposed that the wall would fall if thee was no Stark i the north, but dragon propably makes as much sense :)

There were Starks in Winterfell when this dragon was seen. Both Rickon and Bran were in the crypts. I don't think this line is to be interpreted too litterally. I mean, if the castle would fall to the ground when the Stark lord went down into the basement, or went out hunting, or heck, went for a ride to chase out wildling raiders, well, in the end, that would be silly.

The line "There must always be a Stark in Winterfell" is probably meant to be taken metaphorically, something along the lines of: "the north is so important and dangerous, *someone* who is responsible must always be at hand to keep an eye on it".

There is not a lot of meat on the bones of this dragon. We gnaw on those dragonbones something fierce. ;)

Which makes me think.. how hungry would a hibernating dragon be when it woke up?

[Manakhkubar]

Which makes me think.. how hungry would a hibernating dragon be when it woke up?

I think that depends on his energy efficiency category. A typical A+-dragon with 8 watts of power consumation in hibernation would have burnt about 2 Terajoule in 8000 years. That's about 200 tons of bread. The Winterfell dragon seems to be an older, non-EU-conform model, with all the hot water produced from dragon heat loss. So probably more like 200 watts of dissipation power minimum, or 5000 tons of bread.

[A Redeemed Hound]

I think the line is nothing more than the Direwolf describing something he doesn't understand using descriptions he is familiar with. It happens every time we see Bran warg into Summer.

Thank you. :agree:

[AvengingAryaFan]

I think that depends on his energy efficiency category. A typical A+-dragon with 8 watts of power consumation in hibernation would have burnt about 2 Terajoule in 8000 years. That's about 200 tons of bread. The Winterfell dragon seems to be an older, non-EU-conform model, with all the hot water produced from dragon heat loss. So probably more like 200 watts of dissipation power minimum, or 5000 tons of bread.

That's silly. Dragons don't eat bread. Besides, there are more calories in fat.

[Manakhkubar]

That's silly. Dragons don't eat bread. Besides, there are more calories in fat.

Yeah, you are right, that was silly. More appropriate to say: said dragon is 38.5 million Mars bars (regular size) hungry.

[Lordwalker]

Did the big red comet show up in ACOK?

[Errant Bard]

Did the big red comet show up in ACOK?

In AGOT, when Dany wakes the dragons from stone. Also talked about a lot in ACOK prologue and first chapters.

[Lordwalker]

In AGOT, when Dany wakes the dragons from stone. Also talked about a lot in ACOK prologue and first chapters.

Well Perhaps that's what Summer saw, through the smoke.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

As for the Witnesses Conundrum, the only reasonable evidence against this theory in my eyes. Maybe there's no dragon there at all, or maybe it was just a vision in the flames. But maybe people are stupid -- and it was loud, and hard to see, and the dragon was fast. That does it for me.

I don't think that's really satisfying. The "Witnesses" issue isn't purely a question of plausibility, although I'm not sure that you've really answered that side of it. (Does the dragon fly away at nearly the speed of sound only to set down in a place far away from any viewpoint characters and do nothing of consequence? Really?) It's also a question of storytelling.

We can be certain that What really happened to Tyrek? is a major mystery that GRRM intends to have the readers thinking about. His disappearance comes up in conversation on several occasions (in Tyrion's first chapter in A Storm of Swords, in a Jaime chapter in A Feast for Crows), with no other purpose save to remind the reader that Tyrek is missing and nobody knows where he is. A similar thing was done to set up the revelation that Ser Barristan was with Daenerys: Renly explicitly mentions that Ser Barristan is nowhere to be found. Lord Beric's multiple resurrections is given a pretty large hint in ACOK, and several more times in ASOS; many people wonder about Jon Snow's real mother; et cetera, et cetera. Obsessives like us don't need the help, but the casual reader does.

(Obviously minor revelations don't need this kind of help, because if folks miss that the fake Arya is really Jeyne Poole it doesn't hurt the story. But presumably the discovery of a living, full-grown dragon bopping around the North wouldn't be minor.)

By contrast, on the subject of the supposed Winterfell dragon, we have a single sentence in ACOK that most people would most likely have forgotten about, and then... nothing. No indication that something happened to Winterfell that ordinary siege weapons couldn't accomplish, which Asha could have told us. No reports of strange occurrences that might be explained by the presence of a dragon. No reports of seeing something mysterious flying through the sky. There are a lot of ways that GRRM could have prepared the reader for some kind of major revelation, and yet he hasn't done so.

[George Snow]

As to witnesess in immediate vincity of Winterfell - there were clearly no witnesses to Ramsey attack; he propably made sure of that, by killing anyone who could be. So if the alleged dragon woke up soon after burning the keep, when Dreadfort men were gone, its quite possible that noone saw it.

If someone saw it later, then it's quite possible that we don't know it yet. North is a huge area and word travels slowly; also sonn after sacking of Winterfell, all communication with the south was cut off due to Ironborn sacking the Moat Cailin - rumors couldn;t travel, and I doubt that lords would bother to send ravens with informations about folk tales. ALso Jon at the Wall had no contact with the general population of the North - so it's possible that the rumors ahvn't reached any POV yet.

As to "there must be Stark in WInterfell" - I always suposed that the wall would fall if thee was no Stark i the north, but dragon propably makes as much sense :)

That's not really true, as there are plenty of ravens. Also, White Harbor has not been cut off from the sea, so they could send a ship to report any news. East Watch hasn't been cut off from the sea, either. The whole east side of the North is still open for business. They just have to use the sea, instead of the Kingsroad. Robb was cut off from the north, because of the Freys at the towers, the Ironborn at Moat Cailin, the Ironborn controlling the seas on the west side of the North, and the Lannisters to the east.

But news of a dragon could definitely have reached Kings Landing, and since Varys was reporting sightings of Dany's dragons, news of a dragon in Westeros would have been bigger news.

I tend to agree that the fire at Winterfell caused the stones to heat up the already hot water running through the walls to the point that the exploding steam caused most of the damage. And that Bran/Summer probably saw the comet, and described it the best way that he could.

GH