The NFL Thread

[ZANNI_1276]

Well that could also be because a single star makes a much bigger difference in the NBA and it's easier to project players into the pros in basketball than in football.

Well, basketball is 5 on 5 with a little over a dozen on a roster as opposed to 52, and only 2 rounds of drafting as opposed to 7. But you can't say one player can't make a difference in the NFL, look at what Flacco and Ryan did last year as rookies, they made a big difference for thier teams.

Disagree too about projecting pro basketball players vs football but that is a different conversation all together.

EDIT: But my main point was that in the NBA the number 1 pick is valued by all teams in the association - if you wanted to obtain it you would have to compensate the holder of the pick where in the NFL - no one wants it because of the cap implications and gamble on the prospect vs the $.

[DanteGabriel]

But you can't say one player can't make a difference in the NFL, look at what Flacco and Ryan did last year as rookies, they made a big difference for thier teams.

A lot changed for the Falcons besides picking up Matt Ryan. For one, they also got a stud RB and a new coach who was solid and competent, as opposed to some NCAA football factory refugee who fled with his curly tail between his legs midway through the season. The Ravens were more returning to form after a shitty year rather than suddenly being improved by the arrival of a rookie QB.

[ZANNI_1276]

A lot changed for the Falcons besides picking up Matt Ryan. For one, they also got a stud RB and a new coach who was solid and competent, as opposed to some NCAA football factory refugee who fled with his curly tail between his legs midway through the season. The Ravens were more returning to form after a shitty year rather than suddenly being improved by the arrival of a rookie QB.

Totally agree, but you can't argue that neither Ryan nor Flacco had a huge impact on those teams though -

[Arakasi]

Well the thing is that it really matters on who is coming out. In Basketball you can have it like the NFL where no one really wants the pick (Bargani for example), but then you have years where the number one pick is a franchise changer (James, Howard, etc). For football its a bit of the opposite. More often no one really stands out, but sometimes there is a great player at the top that draws that attention. Also in NFL the pay seems to scale more at the top end. More of a slope so the cost of a high first rounder is brutal, well also add in that the average NFL number one pick is pretty much near the top of his position in pay, but not so for the NBA. NBA players are making 20 million when rookies are making 5. (Rose made 4.8 mil this year) In the NFL top players are at most making about 10 while the top pick is making very close to that (Long got 57 million over 5 years)

They really need to address the fact that in the NFL top picks make more money than 5 year pro bowlers. In the NBA its smarter, they start at smaller percentage but there is no negotiating, salaries are by draft pick and their deals are 3 year deals. If someone is great they get a chance sooner to renegotiate.

[Prince of the North]

EDIT: But my main point was that in the NBA the number 1 pick is valued by all teams in the association - if you wanted to obtain it you would have to compensate the holder of the pick where in the NFL - no one wants it because of the cap implications and gamble on the prospect vs the $.

ZANNI,

Yes, it's amazing how things have developed in the NFL such that having a high draft pick has the exact opposite effect of what was intended! Right now, it's like every NFL coach has to start out his pep talks to the team by emphatically saying "Well, boys, we'd damn well better make the playoffs because our franchise's financial future depends on it!" It's crazy!

You have some good insight into the whole CBA situation and you are making me feel a bit more optomistic about it. I can, however, think of a few large market teams that might like to try things without the cap (e.g. Dallas and Washington). I can only hope them being outnumbered by smaller market owners will keep them in check. Another thing I'd like your thoughts on is the fact that the owners want to swing the 60-40 (I think) revenue split between the players and owners a little more in their favor. in other words, the owners feel they are giving too much money to the players and want some of it back. How big of a sticking point do you see this being? The thing that you are talking about that probably gives me the most hope is the appearance that the players and owners both have a lot of things on which to bargain.

Also, you were talking earlier about your excitement for the draft. I'm really looking forward to it as well. In fact, a guy I know has thrown a draft party for the last few years and it seems it will be an annual event for a long time (I hope). We sit around, eat, have some beers, gamble a little bit playing some Texas Hold 'em and on a pool trying to predict the first 20 picks, and generally talk a lot o' shit. All while following the draft, of course! :D

I don't really have a favorite NFL team but I love the whole league. I live in an area of the country where I'd have to reach quite a ways for a "home" team so I've never really felt compelled to do that. However, I do agree with those who think Detroit should not go with a QB with their first pick. I'd rather see them go with an OT there but I can also see the point of the many "experts" who say they almost have to go QB first simply due to how much it will cost. Let's just say I wouldn't blame them for going with Stafford but i think they'd be better served with an OT. Also, does anyone know anything about highly drafted Drew Stanton on the Lions' roster? Is he anything they can work with or is he a total bust? It just doesn't seem like he's gotten much of a chance yet. :dunno:

[ZANNI_1276]

PotN,

As far as Stanton is concerned all you really have to know is DET is probably going to take Stafford and have already named Culpepper the starter so that tells me that Drew is not thought of too highly in Detroit. As far as who to take at 1, I would take either Curry or Jason Smith. In DET situation, who ever you can strike a reasonable deal with - without breaking the bank.

Under the current system you do get penalized $$ for being a bad team - on top of getting your teeth kicked in by the other clubs week in week out. Funny thing about your pep talk, I am sure the owners wish they can actually tell the players and coaches that point exactly.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the larger market teams make a push for going cap free but the Dallas's and WAS are outnumbered by the mid to smaller market teams. I hope Goodell is ready for a knife fight, the most underated story line about this future showdown between the players and the owners is going to be the absence of Dan Rooney due to sucking Obama's - I mean being appointed by the President the ambassador position in Ireland.

This was a guy who was a slick negotiator, an extremely level headed business man who always appreciated and respected the players union stance on issues and has been Sheriff Roger's mentor since he took over. But hopefully his son is semi capable because looking at the roster of NFL owners, some of these guys flat out scare me and that includes my guy.

OOHH the revenue sharing is going to be a mexican stand off and both sides have great cases why it should or shouldn't shift. I was talking with my brother in law about this one and we both agreed there is no way the owners are going to shift an even split to the players side of the revenue sharing but contract guarantees or a larger % of compensation in the players favor might be that answer - who knows (just two dudes talking over a beer though).

The new union big shot DeMaurice Smith, who serves a 3 year term but wants a 5 year contract?!?! hope that isn't a sign of things to come, has his work cut out. I just see a work stopage as inevitable, too many unresolved issues but the good news is both sides have chips to barter and like any other negotiation process some sacrifices will have to be made, the rookie salary scale will be the easiest because both sides are for it but if you are going to increase/guarantee more money to the players you have to ask where is that going to come from? Easy answer is the revenue split. Bottom line is the NFL is a cash making business and neither the players and especially the owners - hell even the agents don't want to alienate the fan base and rock the boat where baseball and the NHL have absolutely dropped the ball. I think the NFL will do what it does best and that is make money and entertain so they will some how figure it out, going to be a bumpy ride though. Both sides are cognizant of the mistakes of MLB and NHL so hopefully they can start hammering stuff out.

I am stoked about the draft, I just wish they were starting it at 12 eastern instead of 4 - that is a long day of drinking for me. I do have a team close by, even have season tickets but there has been many a sunday I have vowed I won't be renewing them, but I do. I am hoping the new regime does something and by something I mean find football players and not under perform. I know there is a lot - I mean a lot, of Mangini hate out there - hell even in town there is but I am curious what he and his guys do this weekend.

How about this, who do you project your team to pick up Sat/Sun? Or who do you want? Play a little armchair GM...Fun stuff...Me personally, I am a browns fan - please no pity or heckling thank you very much...If the draft went perfect for us (me) and the sun and the moon lined up (just with the picks on the board as of right now) IMHO this would be a pretty good day...BTW - Curry actually might be there (fingers crossed)

1. (#5) Aaron Curry LB - WF

2 a.(#36) Duke Robinson - G/C - OK

2 b. (#50) Clint Stintim - OLB - VA

4. (#104) Rashad Jennings RB - Liberty

6. (#177) Patrick Turner WR - USC

Pie in the sky stuff but all are pretty realistic picks - plus couple of dudes I am just tracking to track...

[the silent speaker]

What's the deal with people projecting the Jets to take a QB? They have three guys right now who the knock on is that they're all unproven -- all of them too young for the knock to be that they're proven not (well, maybe Clemens a little, but even him). So the solution to their quarteback difficulty is... draft another QB? Is he somehow more proven than Ratliff or Ainge? Am I missing something here?

[ZANNI_1276]

What's the deal with people projecting the Jets to take a QB? They have three guys right now who the knock on is that they're all unproven -- all of them too young for the knock to be that they're proven not (well, maybe Clemens a little, but even him). So the solution to their quarteback difficulty is... draft another QB? Is he somehow more proven than Ratliff or Ainge? Am I missing something here?

Allegedly they love Sanchez too - with the options they are considering you best hope they trade up for Sanchez. They might actually REACH for Josh Freeman - the dude is not 1st round talent, Bohmar is a better prospect. He has a big arm and can't be arm tackled and well, that's about it with Josh. I would say he is similar to Culpepper (size wise) but honestly, Duante had much more talent. Agree with you 1-0-0-%, why not decide if Clemmons, Ainge or Ratlif can play - as JETS fan wouldn't you want Heywood Bey at WR, or say Britt (I just think Britt is going to be a total stud) or Rey Malaluga who may very well be available??

Hopefully the freeman stuff is bs but this is one of those -"where there is smoke, there is fire" kind of whispers. As a jet fan you are looking at one of the most monumental, god awful picks in your lifetime if they go with Freeman and the funny thing, I don't know how old you are but I am telling you that it is that bad of a pick because of the implications it will have on the overall competitiveness of the franchise in the YEARS to come just due to the issues it will create at the QB position where stability is the key. Is he comparable to WVU D-Lineman or a PENN ST RB - yeah - it would be right up with those.

[ZANNI_1276]

Someone on ESPN when speaking about the Jet's desire for Sanchez also through in there that their confidence in Clemens is still strong. Maybe they think Clemens is good enough to make them competitive so he's not a nightmare scenario but that Sanchez has star written all over him. They mentioned the NY media market and a new stadium and how much they'd like Sanchez to fit into that.

I am not buying the confidence in clemmens is strong. Brought in Ainge, told Ratlif he will compete. This just isn't the former coach but the GM creating these issues.

I can see the apeal of Sanchez - new staduim and the NY market for one and let's be honest NYC coined this BS phrase " fits the New York market", but in all actuality it ONLY APPLIES to the YANKEES and no other team in the NY area, not the JETS, GIANTS, KNICKS, mets or nets.

But pacifying your fans with a QB is a bullshit excuse in my book. How did that work out for the jets fans last year?

Personally I hope they reach for Sanchez just b/c my team might be the beneficiary but if I was NYJ fan it would piss me off, they don't need to trade up. At 17 take the best available player not named Josh Freeman, give the young kids at QB a shot, if they suck bad enough you might be in line for the 2010 QB frenzey draft next year with Mcoy, Tebow, Bradford and others - why do think Sanchez opted out early - he could be a top 10 in 2009 but maybe a mid to late 1st next year - or worse honestly.

[Andrik the Unsmiling]

This year seems super weird to me in that there aren't that many super blue chip types. It seems more like a giant clump of 15-20 good prospects, that I can't really separate all that well. Glad my Niners aren't in Detroit's shoes... but it would be nice to be a little higher up to nab Crabtree. Out of this whole draft, that's the guy who really stands out to me.

That said, SF probably won't have a shot at him, so, if they don't trade down, I'm projecting a Michael Oher pick at 10, which I'd be ok with. A RB in the next few rounds to spell Gore would also be a nice addition. And the team certainly couldn't go wrong by adding more pass rushers.

Honestly, though, this is the least excited I've been about a draft in some years. Normally, I'm chomping at the bit this time of year for the thing to get started already, but this year, I'm excited, but I could wait another month if I had to. I guess part of that's the fact that it's just not that great a year near the top, part of it is my increasing lack of confidence in the 49ers front office, and part of it is that I've just been too distracted to really get that into it this year for personal reasons.

So, all that said, what I think I'd like the Niners to do is trade up and snag Crabtree, at least if he falls out of the top five (which I think definitely could happen). What I think will happen, though, that's a bit different:

1) Stafford-- I think the Lions are going to regret this one.

2) Jason Smith-- Should be a solid player for years to come, IMO.

3) Aaron Curry-- While I don't think this is as much of a slam dunk as some are suggesting (I could see a Crabtree pick here to give Cassell a #1 target), I think this is probably the direction they'll eventually go.

4) Mark Sanchez-- Guess I buy into the latest rumors. Wouldn't be too surprised by a Eugene Monroe pick, though, as an eventual Walter Jones replacement on the left side.

5) BJ Raji-- Browns go with defense rather than O.

6) Eugene Monroe-- Bengals very happy to see Monroe fall so low.

7) Michael Crabtree-- Al Davis won't pass up the best WR in the draft.

8) Jeremy Maclin-- Jax might have been interested in a QB, but Sanchez is gone. Maclin's speed on the outside should be a big help opening up space in the running game, though, and Garrard has the arm strength to chuck it deep.

9) Andre Smith-- Probably the biggest risk in the top 10, but a pretty huge talent as well.

10) Michael Oher-- The only name left that doesn't make me cringe and want to trade down. Is it reaching a bit? Maybe... but I think I would feel that way about anyone on the board, so I'll take the guy with tremendous upside at a position of need.

[grozeng]

What's the deal with people projecting the Jets to take a QB? They have three guys right now who the knock on is that they're all unproven -- all of them too young for the knock to be that they're proven not (well, maybe Clemens a little, but even him). So the solution to their quarteback difficulty is... draft another QB? Is he somehow more proven than Ratliff or Ainge? Am I missing something here?

That's what I posted above. I sincerely hope the Jets take a WR with their 1st rounder and not Freeman. And I hope they do not trade up for Sanchez. They have had some good drafts the past couple of years (verdict still out on Gholston). I was glad that they passed on Leinart and took Ferguson (in hindsight it might not have been the right move). Rex Ryan is saying that Clemens had an outstanding mini-camp or whatever they just had. I think they should sign one of the veteran QBs that hasn't signed anywhere yet and go in with Clemens and Ratliff. But the "talking heads" are all saying they will take Freeman and a TE. They traded up for a TE in the 1st round last year, so I really hope they don't waste a top pick on a TE.

Personally I think Clemens will be fine if he is given the chance. He looked really good 2 years ago when Pennington was hurt (but he looked kind of bad last year once Favre was brought in).

[boiled leather]

So, all that said, what I think I'd like the Niners to do is trade up and snag Crabtree, at least if he falls out of the top five (which I think definitely could happen). What I think will happen, though, that's a bit different:

1) Stafford-- I think the Lions are going to regret this one.

2) Jason Smith-- Should be a solid player for years to come, IMO.

3) Aaron Curry-- While I don't think this is as much of a slam dunk as some are suggesting (I could see a Crabtree pick here to give Cassell a #1 target), I think this is probably the direction they'll eventually go.

4) Mark Sanchez-- Guess I buy into the latest rumors. Wouldn't be too surprised by a Eugene Monroe pick, though, as an eventual Walter Jones replacement on the left side.

5) BJ Raji-- Browns go with defense rather than O.

6) Eugene Monroe-- Bengals very happy to see Monroe fall so low.

7) Michael Crabtree-- Al Davis won't pass up the best WR in the draft.

8) Jeremy Maclin-- Jax might have been interested in a QB, but Sanchez is gone. Maclin's speed on the outside should be a big help opening up space in the running game, though, and Garrard has the arm strength to chuck it deep.

9) Andre Smith-- Probably the biggest risk in the top 10, but a pretty huge talent as well.

10) Michael Oher-- The only name left that doesn't make me cringe and want to trade down. Is it reaching a bit? Maybe... but I think I would feel that way about anyone on the board, so I'll take the guy with tremendous upside at a position of need.

I agree the 9ers could use oher and I would welcome the pick. But after signing Smith? Not that I think they should have signed Smith. I had visions of a WR, but by Signing Jones, keeping Bruce and with Hill and Morgan emerging, I think they won't pick a WR before the 4th or 5th.

I think Davis wants Maclin over Crabtree. Speed is Davis' heroin.

I actually see the 9ers focusing on D. Orakpo perhaps maybin. If Raji Falls, they will out trade, as I get the sense they are happy with Sopaoga and teams in the 19-22 range might want him.

sadly, I'm becoming unexcited as I think about Kentwan Balmer and Rashaun Woods and know the list will continue.

[Mack Kilimaro]

That was a really interesting conversation in here on the idea of a salary structure to the draft. I'm on board. Seems like the draft prices are getting kind of out of control and bringing some league-sanctioned method to that madness is probably a good idea. The comments about how having a higher draft pick can be a negative are pretty spot on. It's a lot of risk involved and you get saddled with big money for production that may never arrive. Bring it on.

Hard to get really into the mock drafts since the Ravens are sitting at 26 and a lot can happen between the top pick and there. Some clamoring locally in hopes of getting Darrius Heyward-Bey, a Maryland WR, and we certainly need a WR. There also seems to be an effort to acquire Anquan Boldin from the Cardinals. From what I've read in the local media they want a first- and a third-rounder and the Ravens are willing to go first-rounder and a player. Not sure how sold on that I'd be as it's Larry Fitzgerald's freakish physical talent that stands out to me from the Super Bowl and my main memory of Boldin is Bill Simmons making "out with a face" jokes about him. We have a history of drafting well in the first round, even with late picks in the round. Hard to give up that kind of value pick.

[Gold Storm]

Just two more days too see how big of a mess the Browns make with their #5 pick. Everyday there is a new rumor about whom they will pick or trade away. After a long history of being a Browns' fan, I am ready to see whomever they pick fall flat on their face and the next few picks to become top starts in the NFL. The only good thing is that the Browns have so many needs, that they should get a lot out of them. Unless they pick Sanchez, then there will an unending battle on the message boards about who should start Sanchez or Quinn and the Browns can restart their forth or fifth rebuilding process since their return.

[Arlingzen Bill]

1) Stafford-- I think the Lions are going to regret this one.

2) Jason Smith-- Should be a solid player for years to come, IMO.

3) Aaron Curry-- While I don't think this is as much of a slam dunk as some are suggesting (I could see a Crabtree pick here to give Cassell a #1 target), I think this is probably the direction they'll eventually go.

4) Mark Sanchez-- Guess I buy into the latest rumors. Wouldn't be too surprised by a Eugene Monroe pick, though, as an eventual Walter Jones replacement on the left side.

5) BJ Raji-- Browns go with defense rather than O.

6) Eugene Monroe-- Bengals very happy to see Monroe fall so low.

7) Michael Crabtree-- Al Davis won't pass up the best WR in the draft.

8) Jeremy Maclin-- Jax might have been interested in a QB, but Sanchez is gone. Maclin's speed on the outside should be a big help opening up space in the running game, though, and Garrard has the arm strength to chuck it deep.

9) Andre Smith-- Probably the biggest risk in the top 10, but a pretty huge talent as well.

10) Michael Oher-- The only name left that doesn't make me cringe and want to trade down. Is it reaching a bit? Maybe... but I think I would feel that way about anyone on the board, so I'll take the guy with tremendous upside at a position of need.

Green Bay sits at number nine... that pick scares me... Mandarich jr anyone... now a legacy I wouldn't mind seeing is a third round pick of Chase Coffman... son of Paul Coffman who was an all pro TE for GB in the eighties.

[DanteGabriel]

sadly, I'm becoming unexcited as I think about Kentwan Balmer and Rashaun Woods and know the list will continue.

Just repeat this over and over to yourself: "Patrick Willis... Patrick Willis... Patrick Willis..."

[DanteGabriel]

So, according to ESPN, in the Browns-Giants trade talks, the Browns are asking for Kiwanuka and a first-rounder in exchange for Braylon Edwards.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4091378

Does that seem way out of whack to anyone else? A proven bad-ass pass rusher AND a first-round pick, in exchange for an inconsistent "high potential" receiver with the dropsies? I don't blame the Giants for shutting that down.

[boiled leather]

Just repeat this over and over to yourself: "Patrick Willis... Patrick Willis... Patrick Willis..."

great. patrick willis and frank gore

and...? I think we draft like the Bucs of the late 70s early 80s.

I want Pat White. Will he last till round 4?

[Maithanet]

So, according to ESPN, in the Browns-Giants trade talks, the Browns are asking for Kiwanuka and a first-rounder in exchange for Braylon Edwards.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4091378

Does that seem way out of whack to anyone else? A proven bad-ass pass rusher AND a first-round pick, in exchange for an inconsistent "high potential" receiver with the dropsies? I don't blame the Giants for shutting that down.

I agree, the Giants would be crazy to take that. I'd say Mitchell and a fifth round pick, maybe.

On the other hand, I support the Giants making all kinds of bad trades. So carry on.

[Gold Storm]

The Browns oversold Edwards and now have pissed him off, he is their ONLY WR who can actually catch the ball, (even after leading the NFL in drops last year, he was their top receiver by a ton) so if they trade him, they will get Crabtree.