It doesn't make any sense for Jon to be at the Tower of Joy

[Shewoman]

As far as the possibility of a Targ-looking Jon is concerned, there are two women in this story who could make that problem go away: Ashara, who as a Dayne may have some of their Targaryenish coloring and whom Ned publicly had a relationship with at Harrenhal (according to Meera's story), and Wylla, who is claiming to be Jon's mother (and Ned tells Robert that the claim is true). If Wylla is a retainer of the Daynes', she, too, may have some of that coloring.

SF Danny, why doesn't Ned know that Jon is the legitimate heir to the throne? He must know that Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon are dead if he's aware of current events at all. Viserys is alive but has fled, if I'm remembering properly. We don't know exactly what promise Ned made to Lyanna. If Jon was in fact legitimate, I'd think she would have told Ned that.

[Maia]

Presuming R+L=J (legit remix), the only way Jon is going to come into his birthright is via another rebellion.

Well, so? I mean, the last rebellion happened over terrible injustice done to the Starks and murder of Elia and Rhaegar's children was every bit as bad. In any case, it should have been Jon's place to decide what to do with his heritage once he came of age.

Shortly before his death Ned thinks about Jon with shame and desperately wants to talk to him (but not to his other kids). IMHO, it is a clear indication that Ned didn't wholly fulfill his promise re: Jon... and of course Ned's current situation at the time demonstrated with painful clarity that he robbed his nephew and possibly the rightful king of Westeros of his heritage for nothing - the kingdom has been mismanaged and a catastrophic civil war was happening anyway.

Personally I just don't see how it makes any sense for the the Kingsguard to still be at the tower after Jon has left.

Well, it was the only choice they had if they wanted to prevent Ned from learning about Jon or to delay Ned enough that Jon could be taken to safety. Unless they were prepared to kill Lyanna, that is.

Less than all 3 together couldn't have hoped to accomplish this, too.

I do think that that Jon was only sent away once they saw Ned coming.

The baby's life was at great risk in any case; the mountains of Dorne are not exactly near any "friendly" strongholds.

Says who? Friendly Stormlands were a short way north, much closer and safer than crossing Mountains of Dorne with a baby for the sake of an uncertain reception at Starfall.

Presuming she had loved him, that would mean that the war had changed him and that the man she had fallen in love with was worse than married; he was dead, as the Ned she knew would never have done such a thing.

Well, as I said - Ashara would have had to be seriously unbalanced ;). I mean, Westerosi women are raised to be more practical and resilient than that. And there is no indication of such an all-consuming passion between her and Ned. I mean, they met at the tourney and then Ned calmly went back to the Vale and chilled out there until Aerys went medieval on his family.

And BTW, I don't for a second believe that Ned implicated Ashara as a possible mother on purpose - his attempts to quash such speculation amply demonstrate this. In any case, even with the Dawn as a peace offering, Ned couldn'thave counted on a friendly reception from the Daynes or on them not taking Rhaegar's heir away from him. His going to SF if he already had baby Jon makes zero sense to me.

Ned wasn't a good conspirator - it likely never occured to him that people might suspect the truth about Jon once he claimed the boy as his and named Wylla his mother.

[Ser Greguh]

Well, so? I mean, the last rebellion happened over terrible injustice done to the Starks and murder of Elia and Rhaegar's children was every bit as bad. In any case, it should have been Jon's place to decide what to do with his heritage once he came of age.

The point is that such a life is something that Lyanna may (quite reasonably) not wanted for Jon. This whole "robbing him of his birthright" thing strikes me in a way that is wildly inconsistent with what we know of Lyanna's character. To hell with his birthright. Why on earth wouldn't she simply have been concerned over her son's life? It wouldn't have been about righting wrongs, politics, or whose arse was seated on the iron throne; it would have been about protecting her baby.

If R+L=J (legit) is true, that means that Lyanna was already quite willing to damn the political consequences when she ran off with and married Rhaegar, in effect triggering a civil war. Love trumped politics there, why would it also not trump them when the time came for her safety of her son to be seen to? Everything we know of her suggests that when it comes to what she made Ned promise, it would have been "Keep my son safe" over "Make my son king." The latter is something we'd expect to hear from someone like Cersei, not Lyanna.

Shortly before his death Ned thinks about Jon with shame and desperately wants to talk to him (but not to his other kids). IMHO, it is a clear indication that Ned didn't wholly fulfill his promise re: Jon... and of course Ned's current situation at the time demonstrated with painful clarity that he robbed his nephew and possibly the rightful king of Westeros of his heritage for nothing - the kingdom has been mismanaged and a catastrophic civil war was happening anyway.

It could possibly be an indication of that, or it could just as well be an indication that he felt guilty about living a lie for 15 years and wanted him to know who his parents really were. This is equally compatible with R+L!=J for what it's worth, as it may simply have to do with the identity of his mother.

Says who? Friendly Stormlands were a short way north, much closer and safer than crossing Mountains of Dorne with a baby for the sake of an uncertain reception at Starfall.

Like I said we don't know the exact geographical locaiton of the ToJ. All we really have is that it's in the "Mountains of Dorne". There's a large mountain range that stretches all the way from Starfall to Storm's End, with a likely very unclear border as to what mountains fall into Dorne, which ones belong to the Reach, and which ones are part of the Stormlands. It seems likely to me, though, that if the ToJ was in truth as close to Storm's End as you assert, a) it would be described as being in the "Mountains of the Stormlands" and b) it would have been a horrid location at which for Rhaegar to stow Lyanna to begin with. It being closer to Starfall than Storm's End makes plenty of sense.

[Edward the Great]

Where exactly is The Tower of Joy?

[Miriel]

Says who? Friendly Stormlands were a short way north, much closer and safer than crossing Mountains of Dorne with a baby for the sake of an uncertain reception at Starfall.

The Stormlands were friendly to Ned, but remember he had argued biterly with Robert over the murder of Aegon and Rhaenys, so maybe he would not be welcome there.

And in any case, the Stormlands are definitely not friendly to Rhaegar's child.

[Jon Targaryen]

A general observation. There seems to be two theories here. One, that Jon was at the tower of joy when Ned arrived. Two, that Jon was at Starfall. The problem with the first is that Ned would then have to travel into enemy territory with baby Jon accompanied by only Howland Reed. The problem with the second is that all three KG are still at the tower of joy when Ned arrives. Frankly, I don’t find explanations for either problem to be satisfactory. I expect there is something yet to be revealed that will help to explain whatever is the actual case.

I agree that Ashara’s suicide stretches believability.

I think the broken promise could be just to tell Jon who his bio parents were. It doesn’t have to mean lead a Targaryen restoration. But there is the risk Jon would desire that of course.

SFDanny,

I fall to the side that Ned doesn't know Jon is the legitimate heir to the throne. It depends, of course, on how long Lyanna has with Ned before she dies, and whether or not there are others at the Tower who know this part of the secret and are willing to tell Ned about it. My take is that Ned has very little time with Lyanna before she dies (based on the "they found him" description) and that the others there, Wylla at least, have no reason to tell him of this fact - assuming they know it. I think Ned has a tremendous amount of guilt towards Jon because he hasn't told Jon the truth all these years. He has let Jon assume he is his father his whole life and has refused to tell him his mother's name. That explains much of his guilt, but I think he also regrets letting Jon take his vows without full knowledge of who he is. Not because he thinks Jon should be sitting on the Iron Throne, but because such vows should be taken when one is older and more experience in life. He knows Jon chooses the Night's Watch because he has never been able to fully fit into life at Winterfell, as much as Ned has tried to make it possible. Anyway my take on it.

If Jon is a legitimate son of Rhaegar as I believe, then I think Ned can figure that out. He is essentially scratching his head in the dialogue with the Kingsguard, “why are you guys here instead of with the royal family? Huh?†I’m confident he could put it together when he saw the baby.

And Ned does not seem to think Jon is too young to take the vows when Jon takes them. Ned may have changed his mind though.

Edward the Great,

What am I not explicitly stating? And it seams to be you are making a distinction without a difference. There was some funny business Ned wanted to keep secret. Well, we agree about that.

Ned thought there might be something he wanted to keep secret at the tower. He brought six men with him that he could trust, instead of a large contingent of his host. It does not follow Ned wanted to send Lyanna into hiding. He just wasn’t sure what he wanted to reveal yet.

Regarding my confusion, you stated,

The KG were fortunate that the battle was as evenly matched as it was, and if it weren't for Ned's desire to send Lyanna into hiding it would have been a lot worse.

And,

We can see Ned intended to send Lyanna into hiding because he didn't even bring an honor guard with him. Ned was sent south at the head of an army large enough to lay siege to Highgarden, if necessary, and he shows up at the Tower of Joy with 6 fanatically loyal, high ranking bannermen? What other explanation could their possibly be?

I do not understand why Ned not bringing an “honor guard†with him indicates Ned wants to spirit away Lyanna into hiding. Perhaps you mean Ned did not bring some guard of pomp and circumstance to honor Lyanna? I do not see why that is necessary and do not think it is in Ned’s character. But it is probably something else.

We do not know the exact location of the tower of joy.

[Edward the Great]

I do not see why that is necessary

It's necessary because he needs to keep HIMSELF protected. He is still in command of a very large army and as many have pointed out the war wasn't completely over yet, and going off on a rescue mission like that was extaordinarily irresponsible. He nearly got himself killed. When he saw the Kingsguard he didn't turn around and get more men. What was Ned trying to keep secret? The fact that Lyanna hated Robert? That she willingly frakked Rhaegar? If Ned has any intention of bringing Lyanna back to Robert, there's no question that will eventually come out anyway.

[Ser Greguh]

The problem with the first is that Ned would then have to travel into enemy territory with baby Jon accompanied by only Howland Reed.

If it were revealed that the ToJ was geographically located very close to Starfall (less than a day's march, say), would that piece of information resolve this problem in your eyes? If the life of the child were at stake, they would have marched to the nearest available city to find a wetnurse, and perhaps sought after Ashara Dayne, known to still be on good terms with Ned, for sanctuary?

Of course the tidbit of Ned and Howland pulling down the ToJ to make cairns is not consistent with that sense of urgency either, but I think it reasonable that they could have returned for that purpose.

[SFDanny]

SF Danny, why doesn't Ned know that Jon is the legitimate heir to the throne? He must know that Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon are dead if he's aware of current events at all. Viserys is alive but has fled, if I'm remembering properly. We don't know exactly what promise Ned made to Lyanna. If Jon was in fact legitimate, I'd think she would have told Ned that.

and

SFDanny,

If Jon is a legitimate son of Rhaegar as I believe, then I think Ned can figure that out. He is essentially scratching his head in the dialogue with the Kingsguard, “why are you guys here instead of with the royal family? Huh?†I’m confident he could put it together when he saw the baby.

And Ned does not seem to think Jon is too young to take the vows when Jon takes them. Ned may have changed his mind though.

I don't want to make it seem like I think it a certainty that Ned doesn't know if Jon is the legitimate heir or not. I don't think it is something we can assume Lyanna told him. Lyanna is dying, in a fevered state, and to her it seems likely the top priority would be to make sure Jon is not killed by Robert's forces because he is a "Targaryen spawn." That doesn't necessarily mean she tells Ned she and Rhaegar were married. If it has been a long while since a Targaryen king had a polygamous marriage it could well be something Ned doesn't even consider. However, the thing that makes me want to believe Ned did not know is simply Ned's honor and his love for Jon. If he allows Jon to go into the Night's Watch without telling him who his parents are, including the rather HUGE secret that he is the rightful heir to the throne of Westeros, it casts Ned's conduct in a very different light than if he believes Jon is Rhaegar's bastard. If so, he knowingly allows Jon to take a vow, something Ned has taught him to view as sacred, that gives up his birthright without any knowledge of what he is doing. I understand that at the time Ned must think any rebellion to put Jon on the throne would be treason and suicidal to boot, but it is a type of conduct I don't see Ned doing - or perhaps it is only that I hope it is something he wouldn't do. I've gone back and forth on this one, but that's where I stand on it at the moment. Perhaps you two can convince me I'm wrong.

[SFDanny]

If it were revealed that the ToJ was geographically located very close to Starfall (less than a day's march, say), would that piece of information resolve this problem in your eyes? If the life of the child were at stake, they would have marched to the nearest available city to find a wetnurse, and perhaps sought after Ashara Dayne, known to still be on good terms with Ned, for sanctuary?

Of course the tidbit of Ned and Howland pulling down the ToJ to make cairns is not consistent with that sense of urgency either, but I think it reasonable that they could have returned for that purpose.

I think it points to the well supported practice of having a wet nurse on hand at aristocratic births. My first choice of who, along with Howland Reed, constitutes the "they" who find Ned after Lyanna dies is Wylla. There may have been others, I've argued for the presence of a maester as well, but at least Wylla seems very likely. If so, then the length of time it takes to tear down the tower and to get to Starfall are not as critical factors. We know the ToJ is on the border with Dorne and perhaps within the borders of Dorne itself. At the time Ned leaves the Tower the life of any child of Rhaegar is at stake if he goes anywhere in territory controlled by Robert's forces. That means every place in Westeros but Dorne (well, and the North for a party led by Ned, but that's hardly a choice of nearby destinations from the ToJ.) Ned's own life is at risk in Dorne, but I don't think that is his top priority. In any case, we know he goes there.

[Grim Shady]

Grim Shady, what are the "blinking lights" that make you think Ned must be Jon's father? If he is Jon's father, why not tell Jon and Catelyn that? His refusal to name Jon's mother hurts Catelyn. Ned loves her; why wouldn't he relieve her of her belief that his silence about his bastard's mother means he loved that woman more than he loves his wife? Why would he use Jon's bastard status as an excuse not to take him to Kings Landing with him if Jon isn't actually a bastard? If you believe that Lyanna is Jon's mother, then you're talking about incest. That doesn't sound very Ned-like to me--and in any case, I'm not sure when Ned and Lyanna were together after Harrenhal and before her disappearance (which led to Brandon and his men going to Kings Landing)--and, as others have said, no child conceived at Harrenhal could have been born after the end of Robert's Rebellion.

He does claim to be Jon's father. That part is never in doubt. What I'm saying is between the theories of whether Jon is Lyanna's kid or Ned's kid, I am almost positive at this point that he is in fact Ned's bastard. In other words, it's not some big mystery that's being cooked up. The only thing left is who the mother was and that might not even be important. If it was Ashara and she's dead it doesn't matter, if it was Wylla it doesn't matter. Only way it matters is if Ashara is still alive and faked her death for whatever reason and she'll be appearing in the series or if the mother was someone else of any importance. Otherwise he's just Ned's bastard serving in the Night's Watch now.

Remember, this is a subject that has been discussed for over a decade now. Everything we have so far has been examined a 1000 times over.

Reread Eddard's chapters in GoT and reread them as if the series is finished and Jon turned out to be Lyanna and Rhaegar's child. There are certain things that aren't going to make sense if you do that which leaves me feeling that it can't be true or it would have to be an idea added after GoT was finished which would be odd and weaken the series.

We'll just have to wait and see I guess. I'm not gonna go over the blinking red lights since smarter people than me have already discussed it over the years. It's not like I read a part of the book no one else has ever read before. The key is to read it as if you are reading a finished series and see if the pieces fit. Some don't.

[SFDanny]

The key is to read it as if you are reading a finished series and see if the pieces fit. Some don't.

Ok, what doesn't fit? You have pointed out that Ned claims Jon as his son, but that fits for all three scenarios. If it is L+R=J then it is as a cover to protect Jon. If Ned is his father and either Wylla or Ashara is his mother then Ned's claim obviously fits as well, but his refusal to tell Jon or Catelyn who Jon's mother is does not fit. Add to that numerous clues, such as the blue rose Dany sees in her vision, Lyanna dying in a bed of blood and roses, etc. etc., and you have an awful lot that points to Jon being Rhaegar's and Lyanna's son. If you want to discuss it, then posting what you think doesn't fit would be helpful.

[Grim Shady]

You have pointed out that Ned claims Jon as his son

I pointed that out cause there was some confusion apparently. Read the posts.

A lot of the things pointing at R + L = J being true have other interpretations as have been pointed out ad nauseum in the decade+ of discussion of this topic as I mentioned. It is our hope that it's true, it's our assumptions that it is true that are bringing those specific interpretations to the front. Just like some of the characters in the books and how they misinterpret prophecies.

Read Eddards chapters and look for more than just references to the tower of joy and Lyanna. Look at who he thinks about and who he hasn't thought about and what he thinks about around certain people.

If you don't see it, you don't see it. If you interpret it differently, you interpret it differently.

I could end up being completely wrong as can anyone else who doesn't believe R+L=J. You can get in the line to say "na na we told you so."

[SFDanny]

Grim Shady, I DO read the posts. And I do appreciate your call to read things with a different eye. No problem with any of that. What I don't understand is why you want to post, and therefore seemingly want to discuss the topic of this thread, without posting any specific examples of what you say doesn't fit. Sorry, I'm more than willing to have a civil discussion and have no interest in "I told you so" moments. But there can't be much of a discussion if you don't want to participate in the discussion other than to say you see things differently. If that is your only point, then it is duly noted. Good luck.

[Shewoman]

As far as I can tell, Ned never thinks of Ashara (although his behavior towards Catelyn when she asks him if Ashara is Jon's mother indicates that the question really struck a nerve with him). I cannot recall an instance of his thinking of Wylla. He talks about her--he told Robert that Wylla was Jon's mother--(and Wylla is apparently letting people think this as well), but he never thinks of her or Ashara in any way that suggests he had a personal, let alone sexual, relationship with them even though his claim that he is Jon's father and Wylla is Jon's mother requires that assumption.

[the silent speaker]

he never thinks of her or Ashara in any way that suggests he had a personal, let alone sexual, relationship with them

Well, in the last fourteen years, he hasn't. There's time for wounds to heal. And it is at least implied that he did have a sexual relationsip with Ashara, whether it produced a child (or even actual sex) or not.

I think what Grim Shady is getting at is that it should have been impossible to think of Lyanna without thinking of Rhaegar, if R+L=J, yet we know that Ned thinks of Lyanna weekly and hasn't thought of Rhaegar in years.

[Ser Greguh]

It's a bit of a stretch to say that there's evidence for a sexual relationship between Ned and Ashara. There is certainly evidence of the beginnings of a courtship, but particularly for someone described as shy and proper, that's a far cry from bumping pelvises. The only clear evidence we have of any romantic interaction between the two is that they danced together at the tournament at Harrenhal (as recounted in Meera Reed's story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree). Given that Ned (described as "The Shy Wolf") had to be persuaded even to ask her to dance, I don't see that developing into much of anything right there on the spot (although had the events leading up to Robert's Rebellion not happened, it might well could have over time). Brandon was murdered later that year, and Robert's Rebellion started in force the following year. There certainly wasn't any time for a further romance to develop between the two prior to Ned's marriage to Catelyn.

Granted, the Harrenhal incident seems to have led to much Court Gossip surrounding a romance between the two (from whence Cersei gets the idea that Ashara must be Jon's mother), which is of course only further incensed by Jon's appearance. That's just hearsay, though; a character believing something is true of course does not mean that it actually is true.

[Shewoman]

I can't read Meera's story in such a way that it says that Ned and Ashara were sexually involved at Harrenhal (and if they were, they wouldn't have created a child who would be born after the end of the year-long war that started, according to Martin, a year or two after Harrenhal.)

As far as I know, Ned never met Rhaegar (although they were both at Harrenhal). He says at one point (Game of Thrones, pp. 380-1) that he hasn't thought of Rhaegar for years, although clearly he thinks of Lyanna's death more often than that. Does that mean that he doesn't associate her death with Rhaegar? Does he hold someone else responsible for what happened to his sister? He and Lyanna talk before she dies; Ned may be the only person left alive who knows the circumstances under which she vanished. If, as I Heart Severus has suggested, Rhaegar rescued Lyanna from a dire situation, Ned may be the only one who knows that now.

[Miriel]

As far as I know, Ned never met Rhaegar. He says at one point (Game of Thrones, pp. 380-1) that he hasn't thought of Rhaegar for years, although clearly he thinks of Lyanna's death more often than that. Does that mean that he doesn't associate her death with Rhaegar?

I so agree Ned does not seem to associate her death with Rhaegar. And surely if Rhaegar had abducted Lyanna and raped her hundreds of times as Robert said, Ned would think of Rhaegar in very different terms than for example, as when we see him thinking kind of mildly that Rhaegar did not frequent brothels. The two thoughts (i.e, the rape of his sister and the not frequenting brothels) seem so incompatible that they surely exonerate Rhaegar from abducting Lyanna (IMHO at least).

[israfel070]

If it were revealed that the ToJ was geographically located very close to Starfall (less than a day's march, say)

I believe GRRM stated that it's less than a day's ride from Starfall (or not much more than that). Does anyone else remember that?