It doesn't make any sense for Jon to be at the Tower of Joy

[Edward the Great]

Assumption for this thread -

Rhaegar and Lyanna were married

Jon is their son

The Kingsguard accept Jon as the legitimate heir to the Iron Throne (I kicked and screamed over this one)

If you don't like those assumptions, go to another thread, because you will only disrupt this thread's purpose.

Why the frak would Jon be left at the Tower of Joy? I can't see any reason to do this. It would just be insane.

This gets back to a previous idea - Jon must not have been at the Tower of Joy. This means that Ashara Dayne must have taken him to Starfall, with his wet nurse Wylla. And my speculation is that Ned showed up and got medieval on her ass for wanting to set up Jon as some damned king in exile - which is what inspired her suicide and the reason Ned got totally mental when Catelyn asked about her.

The Kingsguard must have remained at the Tower as a decoy - although this seams like a weak idea, I would have expected them to head to Starfall with Jon. But it's not as implausible as leaving Jon, their king, at an insecure location at the end of a lost civil war.

Why not kill Lyanna? That's another weakness. I can only suppose that murder was a line they were not willing to cross.

The best reason for leaving Jon as the Tower would be for Lyanna's teats. But we know that Wylla was his wet nurse, so teats are available.

[Happy Ent]

There is indeed a well-established theory on the board (to which I subscribe) that says that Jon is at Starfall, not at the Tower of Joy.

Speculation:

Ashara Dayne, remaining leader of the royalists, has brought him there, to her ancestral home, which at this time is still in royalist hands. Her plan is to ship him off to the Free Cities and raise him in exile as (1) the true heir to the Westerosi throne or even (2) the Prince who was Promised. (Depends on how much you think Rhaegar included his closest circle of friends in his plans to bring about the Kwisatz Haderach / Messiah / PwwP.)

Lyanna is unfit for travel and doesn’t like the idea anyway. (She just wanted a love-child with Rhaegar.) She wants Jon to be raised in ignorance of his heritage as a Stark bastard. The royalists, of course, can’t have that. But since Lyanna is dying anyway, Ashara leaves ToJ with the baby as soon as he’s born, possibly with a sizeable force of soldiers. (Or maybe she travels as a single mother with a child. Both would make sense and be quite safe. What would be unsafe would be to wear a huge banner saying “I travel with the heir to the throneâ€, or, equivalently bring the Kingsguard). The Kingsguard remains to prevent the one fatal flaw to the plan: Eddard Stark might show up, talk to Lyanna, and abduct Jon.

And it’s exactly what happens. Eddard Stark does show up, and talks to Lyanna.

Speculation ends here. We know that Eddard makes directly for Starfall, has a confrontation with Lyanna that ends in her later suicide, and then leaves the South with Jon and a wetnurse who used to live at Starfall.

[israfel070]

Why the frak would Jon be left at the Tower of Joy? I can't see any reason to do this. It would just be insane.

This gets back to a previous idea - Jon must not have been at the Tower of Joy. This means that Ashara Dayne must have taken him to Starfall, with his wet nurse Wylla. And my speculation is that Ned showed up and got medieval on her ass for wanting to set up Jon as some damned king in exile - which is what inspired her suicide and the reason Ned got totally mental when Catelyn asked about her.

The Kingsguard must have remained at the Tower as a decoy - although this seams like a weak idea, I would have expected them to head to Starfall with Jon. But it's not as implausible as leaving Jon, their king, at an insecure location at the end of a lost civil war.

Why not kill Lyanna? That's another weakness. I can only suppose that murder was a line they were not willing to cross.

The best reason for leaving Jon as the Tower would be for Lyanna's teats. But we know that Wylla was his wet nurse, so teats are available.

I'm not quite sure I understand this post... the usual version of the Theory That Blauer Cannot Tolerate goes that Jon was born at the Tower in Lyanna's "bed of blood," and Ned arrived a few minutes later, before she hemorrhaged to death from childbirth. It's not that he was born elsewhere and taken to the Tower. We know that Ned left the Tower and went to Starfall, where Ashara "awaited him," so the timing makes it unlikely that she whisked Jon away in that few minutes and teleported far ahead of Ned to "await" him.

My speculation is that Ashara was nowhere near the Tower and was suddenly surprised when her lover Ned showed up to tell her he was suddenly married to his dead brother's fiancee, he had a baby, and he had just killed her brother. Hence the suicide.

Also, I wouldn't assume that the KG knew everything that was going on with the war. Read the ToJ passage again; doesn't it seem like Ned is informing them for the first time of everything that's happened? Like good ol honorable Ned is trying to give them the chance to surrender?

Also, this should go in the gigantic R+L=J thread.

[Ran]

the usual version of the Theory That Blauer Cannot Tolerate goes that Jon was born at the Tower in Lyanna's "bed of blood," and Ned arrived a few minutes later, before she hemorrhaged to death from childbirth

Is that the usual version these days? I think people have missed out on some stuff, since it depends way too much on the coincidence of Ned "just" arriving.

A bit of research on childbed deaths show a number of cases where women end up having a lingering death from puerperal fever (the most common of killer of women due to childbirth complications, back in the day), which can in its final stages turn hemorrhagic. Lyanna could have lingered for a long time, actually.

Note that Ned states she actually died of illness, which could be a lie, or could simply be a large part of the truth (and he's just leaving out that she was ill because she had given birth). Note further that if Lyanna had been ill after the birth, the removal of any child she bore would make more sense, for fear of the infant's health if for no other reason.

I don't think the Kingsguard are unaware of the events leading to the Sack from that dream-dialogue, but mileage may vary on that.

[jack-be-lucky]

While I'm a bit more dubious on R+L=J, I also believe that if its true Jon is at Starfall.

However, you'll get plenty of objections from those that believe the Kingsguard are sworn to be with the heir to the throne at all times, regardless of circumstance, therefore at least one would have gone with Jon.

Of course, I don't accept that because I believe that even if R+L=J is true, he's not a true born heir.

[israfel070]

Is that the usual version these days? I think people have missed out on some stuff, since it depends way too much on the coincidence of Ned "just" arriving.

A bit of research on childbed deaths show a number of cases where women end up having a lingering death from puerperal fever (the most common of killer of women due to childbirth complications, back in the day), which can in its final stages turn hemorrhagic. Lyanna could have lingered for a long time, actually.

Note that Ned states she actually died of illness, which could be a lie, or could simply be a large part of the truth (and he's just leaving out that she was ill because she had given birth). Note further that if Lyanna had been ill after the birth, the removal of any child she bore would make more sense, for fear of the infant's health if for no other reason.

I don't think the Kingsguard are unaware of the events leading to the Sack from that dream-dialogue, but mileage may vary on that.

Well, Ned starts his monologue from the Trident, which was already several months into the war and just before the Sack, and charts out all the Robels' and Targ families' movements up until the present. I already figured that (in Ned's view) they already knew everything leading up to the Trident.

Hmm, I like the "large part of the truth" idea... I think it fits in with the way Ned handles the whole situation. He only outright lies when it's absolutely necessary (in private, to one person), and otherwise just doesn't speak about it.

Oooooh, never knew that about puerperal fever! I had only heard of arterial bleeding from childbirth, which kills in a few minutes.

This version makes plenty of sense too (it actually is the first time I've seen it described this way). About coincidences though... there have been PLENTY in the books so far!

[Werthead]

While I'm a bit more dubious on R+L=J, I also believe that if its true Jon is at Starfall.

However, you'll get plenty of objections from those that believe the Kingsguard are sworn to be with the heir to the throne at all times, regardless of circumstance, therefore at least one would have gone with Jon.

Of course, I don't accept that because I believe that even if R+L=J is true, he's not a true born heir.

The biggest weakness in the theory is that it does rely on Rhaegar and Lyanna getting married and multiple marriages still being legally tolerated in Westeros even though the last time it happened was 250 years earlier with Maegor the Cruel. As GRRM said, you can get away with dubious customs if you have some fire-breathing reptiles to back you up, and the Targaryens' near constant incestuous marriages simply became a custom accepted even after the dragons died out, but there weren't any more multiple marriages after Maegor's day (I sometimes wonder if this was part of Jaehaerys' negotiated peace with the Faith in return for them disbanding the warrior orders, incest is now okay for the Targs only but multiple marriages are out). I see no reason for the marriage to recognised if it did happen.

I did once argue that Elia may have actually asked Rhaegar to take another wife/lover. She was very frail and sickly, and giving birth to Rhaenys and Aegon would likely have been stressful. Maesters may have warned her that having a third child would have been lethally dangerous. Since Elia knew about Rhaegar's Prince Who Was Promised investigation (in the House of the Undying, Dany sees Rhaegar talking about it with Elia just after Aegon has been born), if she believed it and believed a third head of the dragon was required, she may have urged Rhaegar to find another wife. And since the law permitting multiple marriages is still on the books (if not used for centuries due to the agreement with the Faith), Rhaegar and Lyanna could have been married in secret, possibly giving us a Secret Septon out there with valuable information on this score.

There is still the question of Jon's status as a member of the Night's Watch. I've seen arguments that you cannot make a binding choice if you are unaware of important information affecting that choice. So if Jon had known what he was giving up, maybe he wouldn't have done it. Well, maybe, but I think the attitude in Westeros is "Tough." Either way, I don't see Jon giving up on the Watch.

I do like the idea of GRRM wrong-footing everyone and Rhaegar and Lyanna having a child that wasn't Jon, possibly a girl (the analogue to Visenya) hidden away somewhere, maybe at Starfall? But that wouldn't explain Jon's Stark resemblence if he was just a random child taken to Winterfell by Ned as a decoy.

[Guest Ontology Interface Layer]

The biggest weakness in the theory is that it does rely on Rhaegar and Lyanna getting married and multiple marriages still being legally tolerated in Westeros even though the last time it happened was 250 years earlier with Maegor the Cruel. As GRRM said, you can get away with dubious customs if you have some fire-breathing reptiles to back you up, and the Targaryens' near constant incestuous marriages simply became a custom accepted even after the dragons died out, but there weren't any more multiple marriages after Maegor's day (I sometimes wonder if this was part of Jaehaerys' negotiated peace with the Faith in return for them disbanding the warrior orders, incest is now okay for the Targs only but multiple marriages are out). I see no reason for the marriage to recognised if it did happen.

While Rhaegar wouldn't have had any fire-breathing reptiles to back up his right to polygamy, Maegor and Jaehaerys certainly did....so they should have been able to resist attempts to force them to give it up. There's no mention anywhere of abandoning polygamy as part of the reconciliation; as far as we know the only concession Jaehaerys made was his amnesty for the former Stars and Swords, which would have been a huge improvement over Maegor's policy of total extermination from their viewpoint.

And the elephant in the room with all of this is the incest. Lucamore the Lusty was reviled for his polygamy, but I don't recall anyone calling his children "abominations"....which is exactly what the offspring of incestuous unions are called, over and over again. The conclusion to that is that incest is considered a far worse crime than polygamy (much like in real life, where polygamy has seen more widespread acceptance). If the Faith could choke down Targaryen incest, presiding over incestuous marriages right down to the last Targ king, with no indications of resisting it had the dynasty continued...why would they have been so up in arms over the lesser offense of polygamy?

There's also Jorah Mormont's ease of advocating polyandry for Daenaerys. The only character who addresses the issue at all thinks it's acceptable for Targaryens. He probably wanted Dany to marry him, but at every turn he demonstrates deep jealousy. As easy as it is be to attribute his comment to an ulterior motive, wanting to share Dany really doesn't fit with what we've seen of his character. So that suggests that he's trying to use a convenient fact to his own (non-ideal) benefit, rather than fabricating a lie from whole cloth, to the extent that his comment has a bearing on Westerosi law.

[israfel070]

I think that Rhaegar would definitely have wanted his third, prophetic, epic child to be trueborn, and would have married Lyanna to make sure that happened. Even if he didn't really care about her and it WAS purely an abduction. I don't think the intervening 250 years since the last polygamous Targ matters to a guy who thinks his next son is going to be a messiah.

And even if they didn't marry, well his daddy can legitimize bastards with a wave of the hand. And Rhaegar probably figured that he could do it himself, pretty soon. For the first several months of his time at the Tower, none of the Targ forces were taking the rebellion very seriously as a threat to their dynasty (until the Battle of the Bells).

[Perin Stone]

Is that the usual version these days? I think people have missed out on some stuff, since it depends way too much on the coincidence of Ned "just" arriving.

A bit of research on childbed deaths show a number of cases where women end up having a lingering death from puerperal fever (the most common of killer of women due to childbirth complications, back in the day), which can in its final stages turn hemorrhagic. Lyanna could have lingered for a long time, actually.

Note that Ned states she actually died of illness, which could be a lie, or could simply be a large part of the truth (and he's just leaving out that she was ill because she had given birth). Note further that if Lyanna had been ill after the birth, the removal of any child she bore would make more sense, for fear of the infant's health if for no other reason.

If Lyanna died days/weeks after giving birth why would Ned call it a "bed of blood"?

[Guest Ontology Interface Layer]

If Lyanna died days/weeks after giving birth why would Ned call it a "bed of blood"?

Because of this part that you quoted:

"A bit of research on childbed deaths show a number of cases where women end up having a lingering death from puerperal fever (the most common of killer of women due to childbirth complications, back in the day), which can in its final stages turn hemorrhagic."

[Shewoman]

As far as I can tell, there's no reason whatsoever to believe that Lyanna committed suicide. Ned obsessively remembers her death more than once, but there's never any mention of suicide, or of any grief or guilt on his part for not having stopped her. One of his early POVs describes her death: he promises her something and she"gave up her hold on life" (I believe that's the quote. If it isn't, the real one is close to it). His memories of her death generally involve her saying "Promise me." When Sansa is pleading for the life of her direwolf Lady, Ned remembers Lyanna pleading as well.

Werhead, I've argued that Elia--generally in ill health--was unable to conceive (or, possibly, to bear) anymore. Since Rhaegar seems to have believed that he needed three children, he had to go elsewhere for a mother.

Edward the Great, if the KG accepted that Jon was their rightful monarch, they might not have thought killing his mother was a wise thing to do.

[Aumerle]

Assumption for this thread -

Rhaegar and Lyanna were married

Jon is their son

The Kingsguard accept Jon as the legitimate heir to the Iron Throne (I kicked and screamed over this one)

If you don't like those assumptions, go to another thread, because you will only disrupt this thread's purpose.

Why the frak would Jon be left at the Tower of Joy? I can't see any reason to do this. It would just be insane.

This gets back to a previous idea - Jon must not have been at the Tower of Joy. This means that Ashara Dayne must have taken him to Starfall, with his wet nurse Wylla. And my speculation is that Ned showed up and got medieval on her ass for wanting to set up Jon as some damned king in exile - which is what inspired her suicide and the reason Ned got totally mental when Catelyn asked about her.

The Kingsguard must have remained at the Tower as a decoy - although this seams like a weak idea, I would have expected them to head to Starfall with Jon. But it's not as implausible as leaving Jon, their king, at an insecure location at the end of a lost civil war.

Why not kill Lyanna? That's another weakness. I can only suppose that murder was a line they were not willing to cross.

The best reason for leaving Jon as the Tower would be for Lyanna's teats. But we know that Wylla was his wet nurse, so teats are available.

Actually I think that it still would make sense for Jon to be at the ToJ. Even if they were married, it obviously was a secret wedding since it never came out later and the few that knew all died in the war so I think it's quite possible that Rhaegar had Jon's safety foremost in his mind. A small, defensible tower with the best knights of the realm guarding it seems like a moderately safe place to keep your trueborn heir - and a lot easier to keep quiet than bringing him to a larger settlement that has a lot more people where someone might give away the secret. I can see your argument as well, I'm just saying I don't think it's that unreasonable that he would be at the ToJ, *especially* since that's where the Kingsguard were stationed. The more I think about that aspect, for however much Rhaegar loved Lyanna, I don't think he would station those knights, or at least that many of them, to guard Lyanna and not his trueborn heir, the Prince that was Promised.

Although I agree, the ToJ isn't the most secure place in Westeros, it does have the advantage of not being under anyone's rule - actually the best defensible castles I can think of were all on the other side - the Eyrie and Storm's End. But okay come up with another castle on the side of the royalists - securing him there might seem smarter on the surface but then you run into the problem that not all Lords are as honorable as the guy who wouldn't give up Edric Storm. So now all of a sudden you're relying on more than just the Kingsguard to keep your son safe. So then my next thought was- why he wouldn't have been brought to say... Dragonstone, I have no idea, except that perhaps that would be an obvious next target by the usurpers and perhaps Rhaegar could tell that his side was losing and wanted his son somewhere more out of the way?

Anyway, I'm just throwing out ideas here but I think that if Jon was his trueborn son, having the Kingsguard guarding Lyanna and not Jon, doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

[Daena the Defiant]

My speculation is that Ashara was nowhere near the Tower and was suddenly surprised when her lover Ned showed up to tell her he was suddenly married to his dead brother's fiancee, he had a baby, and he had just killed her brother. Hence the suicide.

There is a SSM quote somewhere about how the Daynes were Targaryen loyalists and how Ashara was one of Elia's ladies-in-waiting; I sometimes kick about the idea that if Elia was in on the whole "Rhaegar, you go out there and find a suitable mother for your third child" idea, she might have sent her lady to help prepare the Tower of Joy for the lying-in and birth, plus was on hand, ready to go, with a wetnurse, Wylla, who happens to be a Starfall retainer....

Then they all decamped back to Starfall, and Ashara killed herself...for some reason that doesn't fit.

Argh.

There is a sensible theory in there somewhere, I swear ;)

[israfel070]

Then they all decamped back to Starfall, and Ashara killed herself...for some reason that doesn't fit.

Argh.

There is a sensible theory in there somewhere, I swear ;)

Cause she and Ned fell in love at Harrenhall and he was suddenly forced into marrying Catelyn! So when he got to Starfall he broke up with her. And told her about stabbing Arthur to death.

I'm really stuck on the "Ashara was uninvolved until Ned limped up to Starfall with Dawn, a wedding ring, and a baby" versions. They just make way more sense to me.

[Edward the Great]

However, you'll get plenty of objections from those that believe the Kingsguard are sworn to be with the heir to the throne at all times, regardless of circumstance, therefore at least one would have gone with Jon.

That's an excellent objection. As Sherlock Holmes said, "After the impossible is eliminated..."

Has it occurred to anyone that Ned's arrival and fight to the death may have sent Lyanna in to labor? Now I think Jon was born during the fight.

The only reason that Lyanna would commit suicide is if Ned were going to send her back to Robert. But Ned brought his six most loyal vassals with him to the Tower of Joy precisely because he had no intention of doing so.

And if Lyanna were going to commit suicide, she would have had Ned promise her well before she made herself bleed to death.

[SFDanny]

A bit of research on childbed deaths show a number of cases where women end up having a lingering death from puerperal fever (the most common of killer of women due to childbirth complications, back in the day), which can in its final stages turn hemorrhagic. Lyanna could have lingered for a long time, actually.

About ten days for puerperal fever, if my google search is correct.

Fever, puerperal: Fever that lasts for more than 24 hours within the first 10 days after a woman has had a baby. Puerperal fever is due to an infection, most often of the placental site within the uterus. If the infection involves the bloodstream, it constitutes puerperal sepsis.

The time period would not rule out Jon as Lyanna's son. For that to happen she would have to have a child well before the sack of King's Landing or more than about two months after the sack. As I understand it, that's the window in which Jon is born.

The biggest weakness in the theory is that it does rely on Rhaegar and Lyanna getting married and multiple marriages still being legally tolerated in Westeros even though the last time it happened was 250 years earlier with Maegor the Cruel.

Now, maybe I have my facts screwed up, but my understanding is the this is the last time we know about, not necessarily the last time it happened. I just posted a GRRM quote in the L+R=J thread that, if I read it correctly, states that there may well be further polygamous marriages on the part of the Targaryens - we just don't have all the information on the Targaryen brides.

From Martin:

June 06, 2001

Targaryen Polygamy

First off all I want to thank you for the one of the best fantasy novels I ever read. Then I would like to ask one question: In the SOS Jora Mormont told to Dany that Aegon The Dragon had two wives and she could take two husbands. The question is if there were any other precedents of polygamy among Targaryens besides Aegon the First.

Yes, there were.

Maegor the Cruel had eight or nine wives, I seem to recall, though not all of them were simultaneous. He beheaded a few of them who failed to give him heirs, a test that all of them ultimately failed.

There might have been a few later instances as well. I'd need to look that up... (or make that up, as the case might be)

emphasis added

Perhaps you or Ran have further information that places the last polygamous marriage 250 years ago, but, if you do, could you share it? Even if it is true, which I doubt given Jorah Mormont's remarks, I'd argue that wouldn't rule out Rhaegar being determined to reinstate the tradition when it came to the third head of the dragon and a woman we are told he loved.

[Ran]

The Targaryen genealogy I've seen (*cackles*) does not include any clear-cut cases of additional polygamy after Maegor, unless one counts

[The hairy bear]

The Targaryen genealogy I've seen (*cackles*) does not include any clear-cut cases of additional polygamy after Maegor, unless one counts

counts what? What a teaser!!! :tantrum:

Anyway, I don't think that there are cases of poligamy after Maegor. Aegon IV would have married his multiple mistresses if it had been a standard practice. Then we know Baelor wasn't interested and the Young Dragon died young. And the whole Dance of Dragons happened because Jaehaerys I married a second time after his first wive died (or mymemory is failing here?)

[SFDanny]

The Targaryen genealogy I've seen (*cackles*) does not include any clear-cut cases of additional polygamy after Maegor, unless one counts

You are ooh so mean, Ran. Unless one counts ... WHAT? ;)

I'll buy the world book already!! When does it come out btw??