Samalander Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Eh, the biggest problem is that the President of Iran doesn't have all that much power; the Supreme Leader (who is not popularly elected and does have to be a priest) is the one really calling the shots.True. The President in Iran is pretty much Secretary of State + Secretary of the Interior rolled into one. But that's it. If you think he decides things like Iran's nuclear program, think again. Basically, the Iranian people get their choice of puppets. It's actually a good thing the radical crazy puppet got reelected, for he reflects Iran's true leadership much more clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Eh, the biggest problem is that the President of Iran doesn't have all that much power; the Supreme Leader (who is not popularly elected and does have to be a priest) is the one really calling the shots.Former President Khatami seemed pretty progressive (within the context of Iranian politics) but he wasn't able to really change the system. I'm not sure if there is any way to really change the system from within there, short of a revolution or coup.ETA: Looking into it, I suppose it's possible that stealth reformers could slip past the government screening and get elected to the Assembly of Experts, and depose Khamenei and install a reformist Supreme Leader. But the odds are stacked against that on an institutional level, I think.The Supreme Leader isn't all powerful either though. He has to walk a fine line between the Fast Revolution (the one with guns) and the Slow Revolution (the gradual shift of the peoples opinions). Push against reform too hard, and the youths get pissed and grab ze guns. Don't push hard enough, and you lose to inevitability and demographics. That's why controlling the candidates on the ballot is quite powerful. It let's them control the debate that's allowed to go on.Obama's softening stance on Iran should hopefully bear fruit soon enough with Iran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman of the North Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 The electoral commission have declared Ahmadinejad the winner with 65% of the votes:Ahmadinejad 'nearing Iran election victory'Crowds took to the streets of Teheran to protest what they claim are widespread voting fraud but where disperesed by the police. Moussavi just had a press conference where he warned that Iran might become a "tyranny" if this "voting fraud" remained uncontested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samalander Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Moussavi just had a press conference where he warned that Iran might become a "tyranny" if this "voting fraud" remained uncontested. :rofl: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ckrisz Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 It's over. Ahmadinejad is going to be President again. The security services have already broken up a pro-Mousavi protest and locked down his campaign HQ. The faction of hardline conservatives based in the security services is now ascendant. Look forward to the purging of the old generation of revolutionaries like Rafsanjani and Mousavi in favor of security service bureaucrats who grew up in the Iran-Iraq War. One faction of slightly younger, much more hardcore nomenklatura displacing the older generation, with Khamanei allying himself decisively with the newer, nuttier crowd.We'll see just how accounts are settled, but a harsher tyranny is right. Iran's power structure just got less complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 I thought the funniest/saddest part was hearing the comments from those who voted for Ahmadinejad because he "is more with the people, and he has a plain way of living". Voting for "the guy you'd rather have a beer with" apparently transcends culture and race and country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Also, it's still too early to say if this shit goes further. But the election is looking dirtier and dirtier by the minute. From Al-Jazeera:Trita Parsi, the president of National American Iranian Council, told Al Jazeera that the emphatic nature of the victory raised "a lot of question marks"."There are so many inconsistencies. They are even reporting that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz, which is Mousavi's home town, with 57 per cent. That seems extremely unlikely."Some more:http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_...ey-came-in.htmlApparently they can't even fix an election with some pizazz down there. /sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalThor Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Some more:http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_...ey-came-in.htmlApparently they can't even fix an election with some pizazz down there. /sighI think that graph is totally plausible. *nods*Did anyone here truly believe Ahmadinejad wouldn't win somehow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman of the North Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Some footage from the protestsAmong others, there's images of a handful of police taking a protester away, clubbing him, before they have to leave him and flee the mob. This looks more and more like the post-election pro-democracy protests we've seen from the former USSR in recent years. Lets hope the outcome have more in common with them than Burma.ETA: This link also have the Reuter's translation of Mousavi 'tyranny' statement that I referred to upthread:"I personally strongly protest the many obvious violations and I'm warning I will not surrender to this dangerous charade," the Reuters news agency reported him as saying."The result of such performance by some officials will jeopardise the pillars of the Islamic Republic and will establish tyranny.":stunned: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 I think that graph is totally plausible. *nods*Did anyone here truly believe Ahmadinejad wouldn't win somehow?Alot of people figured the Ayatollah wouldn't be dumb enough to fix the election if it was a landslidish win for Mousavi.Or that he would at least fix it competently.Boy, are our faces red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 AP is reporting that cellular service in Tehran has been shut down. Daily Kos is reporting that all phone service to the city has been cut.Also, it's fairly notable that Mousavi's side has so far made this about Mousavi vs Ahmadinejad and not Mousavi vs the Ayatollah. So it may actually accomplish something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Looks like the Elections Commission has called for New Election, due to fraud. No articles in English yet though, so no links.EDIT: http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-i...n-election.htmlA more complete run-down on the Election situation and why it was fixed so poorly.Short Answer? Apparently they didn't think they'd HAVE to fix it. Bad preparation. /tisk tisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 13, 2009 Author Share Posted June 13, 2009 Given the events of 1979, showing the Iranians can rise up and remove their government, and the less than tolerant attitude of the Iranian government to dissent, is it possible this could be the ignition point of a second revolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Well, so far we've got rioting in the streets of Tehran, 50-100 dead, the government shutting down communications and government buildings being heavily defended:Hadi Ghaemi reported concrete barriers installed around the Interior Ministry:Concrete Texas Barriers / Hard Stop are not small. They aren’t the sort of thing one has lying about in a city police station on the off chance they might be needed. Similarly, due to its weight, one normally needs Mechanical Handling Equipment to move it. Such tractors, and their drivers, are again hardly the sort of thing one has in a city police station on a regular basis. This was a pre-planned operation.Edit: Also:A reader writes: I talked to my brother who is in Tehran a couple of hours ago. YouTube is apparently down (filtered). The satellite TV and international radio stations (SW) are also jammed. But apparently a VOA satellite TV station has started to broadcast on a new frequency and so they have access to that. They had also lost the cell-phone service. (The phone system is operated by the Ministry of Technology and Communications; so it is state run.) It really is feeling like a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 13, 2009 Author Share Posted June 13, 2009 Could Pres. A. be attempting to use this chaos as an opportunity to push the theocracy out of power and to consolidate his own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Could Pres. A. be attempting to use this chaos as an opportunity to push the theocracy out of power and to consolidate his own?I very much doubt it. AFAIK the people who'd be suppressing these riots and the like are more loyal to the Ayatollah then the President.What was the implication of that graph that Sullivan was showing? Was it just saying that each time an announcement came Ahmadinejad was winning by roughly the same margin?That the ratio between votes for Ahmadinejad and Mousavi were always EXACTLY the same. Basically, they picked a percentage and all announcements of results showed that percentage, even when the vote was supposedly only 20%/40%/etc counted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 According to 538, the Sullivan Graph doesn't actually prove much of anything:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/sta...-not-prove.htmlApparently, you get the same sort of thing looking at Obama/McCain or any other thing like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Iran's ex-Foreign Minister wrote:A coup d'etat? They've already made one! They've created a dictatorship, in fact. Do you know that last night the security forces occupied the offices of many newspapers, to make sure that their reporting on the election was favorable? They changed many headlines. They fixed the election. The Guards are taking over everything, including many economic institutions. The ministry of the interior is increasing its control in all the provinces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samalander Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 At first, I thought the Ayatollah was really stupid.Why not back the moderate sounding puppet and lull the world into complacancy? Why risk all this civil unrest? Was he really this afraid?And then it hit me. He just looks to North Korea and sees how great they are doing with the whole nutty batshit crazy leader and he says "I got to get me one of those!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 I see you continue to grace us with your objective and informed opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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