College Football Off-Season and into 2010

[Rhom]

Watching the Auburn spring game and Bama is coming up. It never ceases to amaze me how much football is made available to us these days.

[S John]

A little more info since my above post.

I've been hearing a lot of rumblings this week in regards to the conference shift.

Rumor has it that the Big 10 is leaning towards adding 3-5 teams in order to make a 14 or 16 team conference, instead of just adding the one team to make 12. Supposedly, Notre Dame is still looking like it will hold out, and Notre Dame joining as the 12th team seems to be the only option that would prevent the Big 10 from trying to expand to become the largest major football conference.

The schools that I've heard talked about in this scenario: Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn, Boston College, Missouri, Nebraska

Now, since I know you all can count, you'll notice that four of those schools play in the Big East. The bottom line here is this: If the Big 10 expands to 14 or 16 it is very likely that at least 2 of those schools will come from the Big East. This will effectively spell the end of the Big East as a major football conference.

Further rumblings I've heard, are that WVU might be making a push to join the SEC if this goes down, and that SEC officials are aware of this. I'm sure the ACC could be an option, but I haven't heard anything about them specifically. I guess the thinking is that if the Big 10 goes to 14 or 16, the ACC and SEC may be inclined to add 2 more teams each in order to keep up and, well, there will be at least 5 or 6 former Big East teams available of which WVU brings by far the most in terms of competitiveness, fan-base, facilities, and probably $$$ as well.

Also possible, is that if the Big 10 poaches Mizzou or Nebraska you might see Arkansas bolt for the Big 12 to play Texas every year which opens up a natural extra spot in a 12 team SEC. I would think that WVU, Louisville, and USF would be candidates for that spot, unless the SEC tried to take GT or Clemson in which case the ACC will have some openings.

So yea, lots of shit going down in CFB over the next weeks / months. I think that by the time the season starts the future might look very different from what we've become used to.

My thoughts are this. In football, WVU has done more than any other school in the conference to keep Big East legitimacy alive by winning those two BCS games against Georgia and Oklahoma. For that reason, sentimentality, I'd like to see us play in the Big East for as long as it is a viable option.

However, it seems that the days of the Big East being a viable option are truly numbered, and WVU needs to take care of itself and its fan base. I suppose I'd rather play in the SEC or ACC than not play in an auto bid conference at all.

But, the SEC seems like such a difficult conference as it is, and really none of those schools are very close to Morgantown. Lexington, Kentucky is the closest and that is a 6 hour drive from Morgantown. Knoxville is the next closest at 8 hours. As far as the ACC is concerned... since the first raid I've dedicated a lot of time and energy toward hating the ACC and everything that they stand for. I'd hate to ultimately have to join that conference, but it makes more geographic sense than the SEC with Maryland, VT, and UVA all relatively close and the Carolina schools aren't too far away either. I suppose the one bonus would be the revival of old rivalries with VT, BC, and Miami.

[Spring Bass]

Wouldn't having that many teams in one conference (the Big 10) fuck up the current BCS ranking system, though? That's 2-3 additional games per team per season. I'd be curious as to see how the other conferences would react if they actually did something like that.

[Kalbear]

Wouldn't having that many teams in one conference (the Big 10) fuck up the current BCS ranking system, though? That's 2-3 additional games per team per season. I'd be curious as to see how the other conferences would react if they actually did something like that.

No, it's not. Think of a 16-team conference as 2 8-team conferences where one team plays every team (or most every team) in their 8-group and then plays a few in the other 8-group. Then they play only 2 or 3 out of conference games. Wouldn't require any extra games, and would give the Big-10 the ability to have more revenue with a larger overall group.

Heck, the Big-10 could simply not play _any_ OOC games with that large a conference. That would fuck up the BCS, but not for the reasons above.

[Ken Stone]

No, it's not. Think of a 16-team conference as 2 8-team conferences where one team plays every team (or most every team) in their 8-group and then plays a few in the other 8-group. Then they play only 2 or 3 out of conference games. Wouldn't require any extra games, and would give the Big-10 the ability to have more revenue with a larger overall group.

Heck, the Big-10 could simply not play _any_ OOC games with that large a conference. That would fuck up the BCS, but not for the reasons above.

Having a larger conference would give you a much better shot at getting that BCS at large bid, which is where all the money is at.

[Hooplehead]

Being a fan of the old 8 (and then 9) team ACC (the one with the double round robin basketball regular season...), I hope the current "ACC" dies. Even if the ACC expands to keep up w/ the SEC and B10, it will be expanding with scraps - at least in a football sense, which is what is driving this whole thing.

So, instead of having a further bastardized and marginalized ACC, I hope some of the current ACC teams are poached and the ACC ceases to exist. And that Virginia Tech and Miami are left to rot with the corpse that remains behind.

[Hooplehead]

Wouldn't having that many teams in one conference (the Big 10) fuck up the current BCS ranking system, though? That's 2-3 additional games per team per season. I'd be curious as to see how the other conferences would react if they actually did something like that.

I've also heard talk of having 4 16-team super-conferences, and then the winners of each playing off for a NC.

[Rhom]

The New York Times had this article discussing the expansion of the Big 10 and shuffling of conferences. Here's what I found most interesting:

In the aftermath of the A.C.C.’s plucking of Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College in 2003, the Big East put in place what would appear to be some prohibitive measures for conferences swiping universities. One is a $5 million penalty for a university to leave. The other is a minimum 27-month waiting period — an eternity in college football — for a Big East university to join a new league.

I didn't know that there was the equivalent of a "non-compete" clause in the conference membership. That could make a school at least consider the move before they go, although I think with the money involved it would still proove worthwhile to make the jump.

The other aspect that the article talks about is the Big Ten television network as the driving force behind the expansion. They would like to get their network on the cable packages in New York City and New Jersey. Nevermind that no one in Boston or NYC cares when UConn plays... the thought process is that they can reap the benefits of millions of cable subscriptions just by getting their network justifiably into the cable package. That's a side of the dealings that I had not considered.

[Rhom]

Looks like USC is going to dodge any penalties for the Reggie Bush era. Bush has settled out of court with the marketing agents who say they paid him while in school. This will avoid any depositions in the case and everything will stay off the record.

The NCAA lacks subpoena power, and Bush has no reason to cooperate with their investigation. Therefore, the entire case will likely die on the vine.

[lokisnow]

fascinating.

If the big 10 goes superconference to 16 teams, the SEC can't let them get ahead of them. I'd immediately expect them to go after and get Texas, A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

The Pac10 will move slower than the SEC, but they'd get Colorado, maybe Nebraska (if Big10 doesn't take them) Utah and probably Boise State. Texas Tech and Houston would also be aggressively courted to open up the Texas market to the Pac10 television deals. if they get those two Texas teams, they'll probably take Colorado and Utah as well to pick up the Denver and SLC markets.

The ACC will move slowest of all, mostly recovering the dregs of the Big East that the Big 10 doesn't want, and trying aggressively to get Notre Dame in as well.

This leaves the Kansas teams in the lurch, and they'll likely be picked up by the WAC or MWC. The minor conference shuffling will be interesting.

The bottom line is if four 16 team superconferences are set in place you have a perfect monopoly on all BCS bowl money, I'd expect at least a decade if not longer before a non 16 team conference gets a BCS bowl bid. I wouldn't be surprised to see the MWC and WAC attempt a merge as well, and some of the SunBelt CUSA conferences might try the same.

Division splits in all conferences is going to be wild. It will be about tv and recruiting markets rather than geography, some tradition will be a mitigating factor, but Texas/Oklahoma State and Oklahoma/A&M could wind up in different divisions of the SEC to make sure that recruiting & television markets in Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma stays open to both divisions

[S John]

The rumor mill is churning again. Word is that the Big 10 has extended offers to Missouri, Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Rutgers.

If true, then that would make 15 teams. I'll bet that the plan is to go with 14 teams if ND refuses and 16 if they accept, meaning that another team may still get an offer from the Big 10.

As it stands, losing Rutgers doesnt hurt the Big East all that much, but if ND accepts I'll bet that the 5th team proves to be either Pitt or Syracuse.

[Spring Bass]

The Pac10 will move slower than the SEC, but they'd get Colorado, maybe Nebraska (if Big10 doesn't take them) Utah and probably Boise State.

I'm not so sure about Boise State in the Pac-10, considering their "research university" requirement, and the fact that Boise is a small media market (Salt Lake City suffers from that a bit as well).

I suppose my Utes might make it in if the Pac-10 expands like that, but they'll be behind the Texas teams and Colorado in consideration.I feel sorry for BYU, though. The whole "no games on sunday" and private/religious school deal is an obstacle, at least with regards to the Pac-10.

On a side-note, it appears that it will no longer be the Fed-Ex Orange Bowl. Fed-Ex has pulled the plug on their sponsorship:

-- FedEx is ending its sponsorship of the Orange Bowl after two decades.

''This was a difficult decision but one that allows us to focus and redirect our marketing efforts toward our other sports properties and marketing initiatives,'' the company said in a statement Monday.

ESPN is responsible for lining up title sponsors for the BCS bowls as part of its contract to broadcast the games.

''We are in active discussions around the Orange Bowl, which is a premier property and presents a tremendous marketing opportunity. FedEx remains an important client and we continue to be engaged with them in other areas,'' Ed Erhardt, ESPN's president of customer marketing and sales, said in a statement.

FedEx had been the bowl's title sponsor since the 1990 game, making it the longest continuous sponsor of any bowl game.

''We will continue to work closely with the BCS leadership and ESPN, and we are confident that the network will secure a name sponsor for the Orange Bowl that is beneficial for all concerned,'' the Orange Bowl said in a statement.

[Celtigo]

The rumor mill is churning again. Word is that the Big 10 has extended offers to Missouri, Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Rutgers.

If true, then that would make 15 teams. I'll bet that the plan is to go with 14 teams if ND refuses and 16 if they accept, meaning that another team may still get an offer from the Big 10.

As it stands, losing Rutgers doesnt hurt the Big East all that much, but if ND accepts I'll bet that the 5th team proves to be either Pitt or Syracuse.

I assume the Big East would be forced to add a member in this instance though. Seven teams seems to be an awkward number for football and is starting to skirt the "limit" for what could be considered a viable conference. I'm not sure how thrilled the rest of the BCS conferences would be with a 7 team Big East getting a guaranteed auto-bid. That also ignores the possibility of say the SEC responding by grabbing say Texas A&M and Clemson, with the ACC re-raiding the Big East for say West Virginia, Louisville, or South Florida.

[S John]

I assume the Big East would be forced to add a member in this instance though. Seven teams seems to be an awkward number for football and is starting to skirt the "limit" for what could be considered a viable conference. I'm not sure how thrilled the rest of the BCS conferences would be with a 7 team Big East getting a guaranteed auto-bid. That also ignores the possibility of say the SEC responding by grabbing say Texas A&M and Clemson, with the ACC re-raiding the Big East for say West Virginia, Louisville, or South Florida.

Well, yea I agree. I actually think that what is most likely to happen is that the Big 12 will pull at least 2 other teams (possibly Utah, TCU, maybe Arkansas as the dark horse), and the ACC and SEC might try to expand to 14 in the near future in order to keep pace with the Big 10. Who knows what the Pac-10 will do. Maybe look at Boise State, BYU?

Either way, it seems increasingly clear to me that college football is moving toward having a smaller number of 'super-conferences' and this latest Big 10 expansion is going to grease the skids big time. I just hope that WVU finds themselves in one of them when the smoke clears. I have to hope that if the SEC or ACC choose to expand that WVU would get a good look. I have to think that Syracuse, WVU, Pitt, or UConn would all look fairly attractive to the ACC for thier basketball programs. UConn and Syracuse help to legitimize BC's northeastern presence as well. I think that WVU, Lousiville, and possibly USF would merit a look from the SEC if they choose to expand.

[HokieStone]

Being a fan of the old 8 (and then 9) team ACC (the one with the double round robin basketball regular season...), I hope the current "ACC" dies. Even if the ACC expands to keep up w/ the SEC and B10, it will be expanding with scraps - at least in a football sense, which is what is driving this whole thing.

So, instead of having a further bastardized and marginalized ACC, I hope some of the current ACC teams are poached and the ACC ceases to exist. And that Virginia Tech and Miami are left to rot with the corpse that remains behind.

Ah, an ACC basketball "purist". How quaint. Fan of one of the tobacco road schools, I imagine?

I wish the ACC would be more proactive in this whole expansion business, but that doesn't look likely. There was talk of an ACC/PAC-10 network, but that seems to have died, and now the PAC-10 is talking to the Big 12. Of course, if the Big 12 gets poached, that may kill those talks as well. The SEC expanding to match the Big 10 has me worried. I think the SEC will go after Texas and A&M first...but who after that? The names most commonly mentioned are Miami, FSU, Clemson and Georgia Tech. But are they going to bring the SEC any more TV exposure? All of those schools are in states where the SEC already has a significant presence. They could go after some of the North Carolina schools, but they won't take them all, and I don't think the denizens of the Raleigh/Durham area could bear to part from each other. They could go after VT, but that's stretching it geographically, and we'd want to bring UVa along...and UVa won't add any more TV sets than just VT alone. Does the SEC go after any remaining Big East schools? Louisville and WVU would be closest geographically...but those schools are going to bring even more paltry TV markets than the ACC schools mentioned. Maybe with the Big-12 being ripped apart, and if the SEC gets Texas and A&M they go after Oklahoma and another...OK ST maybe, or one of the Kansas schools?

If the ACC is left picking over the scraps of the Big East, there is going to be some hand wringing with respect to academics, but I imagine the school presidents will get over it when faced with being left too far behind the other conferences. Adding the likes of WVU, UCONN, Syracuse and one other (preferably Pitt sans Big 10 invite, but more likely South Florida or Louisville) will do nothing to bolster the league's football reputation, but it would be a hell of a basketball conference.

[S John]

If the ACC is left picking over the scraps of the Big East, there is going to be some hand wringing with respect to academics, but I imagine the school presidents will get over it when faced with being left too far behind the other conferences. Adding the likes of WVU, UCONN, Syracuse and one other (preferably Pitt sans Big 10 invite, but more likely South Florida or Louisville) will do nothing to bolster the league's football reputation, but it would be a hell of a basketball conference.

Predictably, I disagree with (part of) this. Syracuse sucks right now, but that program has what it takes to play serious football. UConn is up and coming, they might not be world-beaters but they field a solid squad and have won some bowl games. And, of course, WVU boasts 2 BCS wins which, iirc, is the same number as the entire rest of the ACC. Would they step in and win it right away? With Stewart, I really doubt it, but they can certainly be competitive and post a winning conference record. Anyway, as you mentioned, all of those schools will bring something to the table in basketball as well.

Another thing to consider when thinking about TV markets. I often see WVU given TV consideration for only the Morgantown area when in fact WVU's TV market encompasses the entire state, not just Morgantown. Even if there are some fringe Marshall and VT fans in the state, they will still watch WVU, and WVU certainly reigns king overall. My grandma watches every WVU game for Christ sake... you can count on almost every bit of that ~2 million plus an extensive alumni network. Like the Virginia schools, WVU get their share of students coming from the NY/NJ area.

Edit: I'd also hazard a guess that Syracuse bball pulls more views in New York than Rutgers does in either sport. In school I knew plenty of kids from Long Island that were Syracuse fans with nary a mention of Rutgers. I sort of think that the Big 10 is crazy for thinking that Rutgers is going to 'give them' the NYC market. Lots of pro teams in NYC, and Rutgers, while slightly better lately, has basically sucked for as long as anyone can remember. I really think they'd have been better off with Syracuse.

[HokieStone]

Predictably, I disagree with (part of) this. Syracuse sucks right now, but that program has what it takes to play serious football. UConn is up and coming, they might not be world-beaters but they field a solid squad and have won some bowl games. And, of course, WVU boasts 2 BCS wins which, iirc, is the same number as the entire rest of the ACC. Would they step in and win it right away? With Stewart, I really doubt it, but they can certainly be competitive and post a winning conference record. Anyway, as you mentioned, all of those schools will bring something to the table in basketball as well.

I wasn't clear. I don't think the addition of any of these schools would damage the current football reputation of the ACC. But it doesn't help it either, not right now. It would be more of the same - some good teams that can break into the top 10, but no real consistent national contender. I agree that Syracuse and UConn have potential in football (and Syracuse even has a bit of history). But it's not like adding Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. It's just not. As much as I have to grit my teeth when I say it, the ACC still needs FSU and Miami to be competitive nationally.

Another thing to consider when thinking about TV markets. I often see WVU given TV consideration for only the Morgantown area when in fact WVU's TV market encompasses the entire state, not just Morgantown. Even if there are some fringe Marshall and VT fans in the state, they will still watch WVU, and WVU certainly reigns king overall. My grandma watches every WVU game for Christ sake... you can count on almost every bit of that ~2 million plus an extensive alumni network. Like the Virginia schools, WVU get their share of students coming from the NY/NJ area.

I'm well aware that most of the TVs in West Virginia are tuned into WVU. And it still means diddly-poo (to quote Jim Mora) in terms of TV market. The Washington D.C. market easily trumps the entire state of West Virginia in TV appeal...and DC isn't even that huge of a market. Of course, DC doesn't command one college football base, split between VT, Maryland and Penn St mostly (with some grasping UVa fans as well).

Edit: I'd also hazard a guess that Syracuse bball pulls more views in New York than Rutgers does in either sport. In school I knew plenty of kids from Long Island that were Syracuse fans with nary a mention of Rutgers. I sort of think that the Big 10 is crazy for thinking that Rutgers is going to 'give them' the NYC market. Lots of pro teams in NYC, and Rutgers, while slightly better lately, has basically sucked for as long as anyone can remember. I really think they'd have been better off with Syracuse.

I don't disagree with this. While I wouldn't mind having Rutgers in the ACC, if the Big 10 wants to chase them for the NYC market, I think they'll be in for as rude an awakening as the ACC got with BC's "mighty" Boston TV market (a distant 6th behind the Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics, Bruins, and Red Sox off-season). In fact, BC really was the odd-man-out with the ACC's earlier expansion. I'd like to see Syracuse and UCONN brought in just to give them someone to play with up there.

[S John]

I wasn't clear. I don't think the addition of any of these schools would damage the current football reputation of the ACC. But it doesn't help it either, not right now. It would be more of the same - some good teams that can break into the top 10, but no real consistent national contender. I agree that Syracuse and UConn have potential in football (and Syracuse even has a bit of history). But it's not like adding Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. It's just not. As much as I have to grit my teeth when I say it, the ACC still needs FSU and Miami to be competitive nationally.

I agree that none of the leftover Big East teams are going to be a big traditional powerhouse on the same level as an Oklahoma, ND, or Texas. But, there just aren't any on the east coast not already in the SEC or ACC that are going to be up for grabs. The ACC can't pick up Texas, for example. Its just not a viable option to have one team 4 states away from their nearest opponent. Leftover Big East teams are likely what the ACC is going to have to work with.

However, depending on how out of control this expansion thing gets, and whether or not the ACC is proactive, they could actually lock up a significant portion of the east coast market by adding four Big East teams. Pick up UConn, Syracuse, WVU, and Pitt. All four help fill in the gap between College Park and Boston. Split the conference by N and S, with the new four + BC, Maryland, and the two Virginia schools. That basically locks up a share of the east coast TV market from Miami to Boston, makes a lot of sense geographically, easily makes the ACC tops in basketball, preserves some old rivalries, and re-introduces some other ones. I imagine UConn and BC could develop a little NE rivalry, and WV already has a history with BC, VT, Maryland, Miami, and Virginia. Pitt and Syracuse have a history with VT, BC, and Miami as well.

Instead the ACC will probably do what everyone else seems to be doing.... which is wait for the Big 10 to make its move and then react. If the Big 10 has its heart set on 14 or 16, and I'm the commissioner of another conference, I'm thinking about which teams I want and extending offers right now. It seems like its only a matter of time, I don't see the point in waiting on someone else to take their picks.

[Frog Eater]

Maybe the SEC is taking S John's advice.

WVU to the SEC?

[S John]

Maybe the SEC is taking S John's advice.

WVU to the SEC?

Huh, if there's any truth to this WVU would be insane not to have packed their bags yesterday. The Big 10 is going to raid at least 1 BE team, and possibly two. The ACC or SEC might come a-raidin' to keep up. The Big East is likely done in football. And I think WVU could be quite competitive in SEC basketball. With Huggy Bear around I have to think we'd be able to give Kentucky a run most years.