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Plot question, ASOS (Tyrion/Tywin)


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There is no way to assume he was planning to specifically plant Shae in Tywins bed in early COK.

Early COK? No.

Fast forward to the evening before the Blackwater. Stannis Baratheon is outside Kings Landing, and it doesn’t look good. Maybe Tywin’s army will get there in time, maybe not.

If Stannis wins, Varys has to flee immediately. If Tywin wins, Varys may be able to stick around for a little while, provided he makes himself insanely useful.

Whatever the outcome, Varys knows that Tyrion is no longer the Hand tomorrow. For some reason (which is mysterious except under my theory), Varys chooses the evening to lead Shae into Tyrion’s bedchamber, via a secret passage. Incompetently, he is not able to prevent Shae’s blindfold from slipping. Also, he has chosen to illuminate one single room in the dungeons. (Note that Varys is perfectly able to negotiate these dungeons in perfect dark.) The blindfold slips in this very room. Also note that there is no reason to lead Shae to Tyrion just to facilitate sex, we see later that there are plenty of other room that Varys can arrange similar meetings in, including his own quarters and the dragon skull room.

In short, Varys does something very strange, very incompetently, and utterly needless. And he does it just before Tyrion vacates this very room, never to occupy it again. These are a lot of factors to write off to “chance.” You could write them off to authorial railroading. But I prefer my version: Varys is actually good at his job.

Varys hopes Tywin will win. (Stannis means game over.) If Tywin wins, Varys will have to remove him pretty soon. His own position is fragile, and it’s just a matter of time before Tywin will remove Varys instead. So the eve of the Blackwater is when Varys’s plan gets a little more form: Tyrion will kill Tywin, by arranging Shae in Tywin’s bed in the exact same position. All other details will be settled later.

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Ah, all right, the plan taking shape on the eve of the blackwater is much less farfetched. Still, using Shae to reveal to Tyrion the vulnerability of the rooms as hes about to vacate them could just be building up to creating strife between Tyrion and Tywin - or on the assumption that Tywin won't immediately boot Tyrion out, giving him an edge - without involving Shae. Or, if Tywin really was the hand with the tunnel, Tywin might already know about the passage and keep in unguarded becuase he assumes no one else does. A secret tunnel is much more dangerous when the whole household guard knows exactly where it is. (Thats the problem with secret passages, they work both ways.)

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  • 11 months later...

There is a very elaborate crackpot theory which explains this.

Tywin is Varys’s main enemy at court, and a major obstacle against a Targaryen restoration. So from Varys’s POV, Tywin has to die. (Tywin likewise wants to remove Varys, the sooner the better. Varys’s days are counted.)

Varys also needs Tyrion. He needs Tyrion on Dany’s side, and in a way that is believable and irrevocable, despite Tyrion’s traditional loyalty to his family. So why not make Tyrion kill Tywin?

Varys plans this from the moment Tyrion sets foot in King’s Landing. His plan is to infuriate Tyrion against Tywin using Tyrion’s main weakness: women. So Varys quickly finds Shae, and then does everything in his power to keep the Shae–Tyrion relationship alive. His plan is then to plant Shae in Tywin’s bed, hoping for a crazy crime of passion. From Varys’s point of view, that’s a good plan.

(Varys is not a mind-reader, nor is he psychic. He doesn’t yet know about the Tysha story, or that Tywin will disinherit Tyrion, or that Tyrion is actually rather cynical about his own relationship with Shae.)

Varys goes so far as to tell Tyrion (in a concealed way) that there is a secret passage into the Hand’s bedroom. (This happens just before the battle of the Blackwater; note that there is *no* reason for the Shae-rendevous in that bedroom, we learn later that there are plenty of other places Varys can arrange for Tyrion to meet Shae. In particular, it seems a huge tip of Varys’s hand to tell Tyrion that he can enter that room whenever he wants.) Varys sets up the whole assassination that night, including the extra effort of lighting the brazier in the dragon mosaic room for Shae’s benefit. (Why light a brazier in a dungeon that he can otherwise negotiate in pitch darkness?)

From that point on, events somewhat overtake Varys’s control, including disinheritance, a regicide, a confused Jaime, and Tysha. But it’s all consistent with his plan.

In the final scene, he has let himself be overpowered by Jaime (this is after he’s found a bloody ship to get Tyrion out!!!), poisons Tywin, probably with Widow’s Blood to glue him to the privy seat (just like Cersei was previously kept on the shitter), drugged Shae with Sweetsleep, placed her in the room, festooned her with the Hand’s Chain (huge blunder! Tywin would never do that!), put a dagger next to the bed, and moved the chest under the crossbow so that Tyrion has an easier time reaching it.

Any questions?

Like the theory, the set up is so perfect but... I cannot find the exact line in my Kindle but doesn't Tyrion say he "knew" Tywin would be in the privy? Correct me if I am wrong but if that line is correct, how did Tyrion know he would be in the privy? This whole scene has too many loose ends for me to believe it was not staged.

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It's a pretty theory, but it ignores one important fact: Varys has no reason to believe Tyrion will kill Tywin, until that very moment when he asks the way to the Hand's chambers. Now it may well be at this point, a lightbulb went off in Varys' head, “May as well give Westeros a parting gift before I go.” But to claim he plotted the whole thing out in advance, as early as ACOK, means Varys had advance knowledge:

A. That Joffery would die.

B. That Tyrion would be put on trial.

C. That Tyrion would lose the trial.

D. That Jaime would spill the beans, and reveal the true extent of Tywin's douchebaggery.

Now as much as I like Varys, he's not that good. He doesn't have bullshit Dany Deus Ex Machina powers. I think the entire scene in the Hand's bedchamber was designed by the author to deconstruct and humanise Tywin Lannister more than anything else. How does this feared and respected tyrant die? This paragon of Westeros nobility? Shot dead on the privy by a dwarf he despised with a whore in his bed.

It’s pretty clear that once the trial went bad, Varys intended to bust Tyrion out of King’s Landing. But to claim anything beyond that is silly, implying Varys has insane, godly powers of foresight.

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means Varys had advance knowledge:

A. That Joffery would die.

B. That Tyrion would be put on trial.

C. That Tyrion would lose the trial.

D. That Jaime would spill the beans, and reveal the true extent of Tywin's douchebaggery.

No, as I’ve said countless times, it means none of these things. Varys was merely confident that he’d find/concoct some reason for Tyrion to kill Tywin. His plan was to use a staged crime of passion, making it look like Shae slept with Tywin. It turned out that this set-up was never needed. Much juicier stuff came to pass.

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It's a pretty theory, but it ignores one important fact: Varys has no reason to believe Tyrion will kill Tywin, until that very moment when he asks the way to the Hand's chambers. Now it may well be at this point, a lightbulb went off in Varys' head, “May as well give Westeros a parting gift before I go.” But to claim he plotted the whole thing out in advance, as early as ACOK, means Varys had advance knowledge:

A. That Joffery would die.

B. That Tyrion would be put on trial.

C. That Tyrion would lose the trial.

D. That Jaime would spill the beans, and reveal the true extent of Tywin's douchebaggery.

Now as much as I like Varys, he's not that good. He doesn't have bullshit Dany Deus Ex Machina powers. I think the entire scene in the Hand's bedchamber was designed by the author to deconstruct and humanise Tywin Lannister more than anything else. How does this feared and respected tyrant die? This paragon of Westeros nobility? Shot dead on the privy by a dwarf he despised with a whore in his bed.

It’s pretty clear that once the trial went bad, Varys intended to bust Tyrion out of King’s Landing. But to claim anything beyond that is silly, implying Varys has insane, godly powers of foresight.

Until Ecstatic Ent comes along to defend his own theory:

The "Varys facilitated Tyrion killing Tywin" theory posits powerful motivations for Varys to want Tyrion to kill Tywin, and a mechanism by which it ultimately happened, but it doesn't require control from beginning to end. If Ent is right, Varys was patiently trying to set it up, but the plot wasn't quite ripe. When Joff was assassinated he twisted it to his advantage as best he could, helping ensure Tyrion would be convicted (which he did). (It was to his advantage that Tywin didn't help Tyrion - coincidence?)

Just because a plot might not work out doesn't stop people from trying them. Given his motivations and previous efforts, why shouldn't Varys try to get Tyrion to kill Tywin before he's shipped to Pentos? If Tyrion is uninterested or unsuccessful, then Varys might have to find another way to kill Tywin. But given Tywin's failure to help Tyrion there seems sufficient chance to justify preparation: incapacitating Tywin, sticking Shae in bed, taking Tyrion where he'll know he's under the Tower of the Hand, and "grudgingly" giving him precise directions to the Hand's room. There's little to lose.

So by preparing to take advantage of circumstances, Varys could succeed without controlling everything.

Thus your list isn't really needed. However, it reminded me of the arguments that have arisen about Joffrey's death, so here's an unresearched, crackpot aside: It's possible that Varys in fact was confident that Joffrey would be killed in such a way as to make Tyrion look guilty. He could have known of the plot (that's his job, after all), he could have prompted the plot (LF isn't the only manipulator at court), and/or he could even have prepared a plot of his own. We know of one plot - Dontos gave Sansa a hairnet with poison stones, LF knew that Olenna would take one, and from her seat on the dais she could reasonably expect an opportunity to get it into Joffrey's wine cup. Yet the wine Joff was drinking didn't get near the dais, did it? Hadn't Tyrion poured that wine? Plus, it almost seemed as if the poison was in the pie, from the timing. I wonder if it's possible that two or even three different assassination plots were all aimed at Joffrey that night - if two or three hunters take aim at a young stag, it can be pretty hard to tell which got him. I imagine any plotter would see Tyrion as the perfect scapegoat.

Cheerful Ent: according to the AFFC flashback, as his reason for helping Tyrion, Jaime told Varys "innocent or guilty, a Lannister pays his debts". When actually talking to Tyrion, in ASOS, he says much the same to Tyrion - "It was ... a debt I owed you." Jaime isn't terribly bright sometimes; given the parallelism and his obvious sense of guilt, he may have told Varys about the debt as well. Did Varys encourage him to resolve matters with Tyrion? I suppose we'll never know, but Varys may have had even more reason to suspect Tyrion would be primed to kill Tywin if he anticipated that revelation. I'm pretty sure he was listening to the Jaime/Tyrion conversation - he was very close.

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No, as I’ve said countless times, it means none of these things. Varys was merely confident that he’d find/concoct some reason for Tyrion to kill Tywin. His plan was to use a staged crime of passion, making it look like Shae slept with Tywin. It turned out that this set-up was never needed. Much juicier stuff came to pass.

If that's the case, then why not just kill Tywin himself and frame Tyrion? It's got to be easier then poisoning the Hand, then dragging an unconscious girl up a long-ass ladder in pitch darkness, then contriving some reason for Tyrion to catch them in the act.

Your theory is just way, way too complicated, especially considering the lack of textual evidence. Occam's Razor buddy.

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If that's the case, then why not just kill Tywin himself and frame Tyrion?

He could have easily done that. Had Tyrion, against Varys’s expectations, decided to not kill his father, Varys could (and, I claim, would) have done it himself.

(Haven’t adressed this in this very thread?)

The reason to prefer that Tyrion did it is that Tyrion needs to have separated himself from his family in his own mind. Tyrion is very, very loyal to House Lannister, and as such cannot work for Dany to overthrow his own family.

Except… if he completely severed all ties and murdered his own father. Now he‘s a free agent, he can never go back.

--

This is not about making Tyrion look bad in anybody else’s eyes. No framing is necessary. The man is already a twisted monkey demon and a kingslayer. The patricide is for Tyrion‘s benefit. Only he needs to know.

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  • 1 year later...

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