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UK Politics VI


Eurytus

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Just woken up here in Australia to the fairly unsurprising news of a hung parliament. None of the parties would really be satisfied with the results - the Tories are going to miss out on a majority and have lost seats to Labour that they would have expected to gain, Labour is down to around 27% of the vote and the Lib Dems have actually lost ground despite picking up 22% of the vote.

Anyone want to take a stab at what is actually going to happen now? Lib-Con coalition? Lib-Lab coalition?

ETA: I was very surprised to hear about Robinson losing his seat.

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I'm still at work, going to take me about an hour to drive home and I'm concerned that I will arrive there to find a Tory government.

Not in my home obviously, but just as frightening a prospect.

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It's a funny thing how democracy works. The three main iconoclastic intellectual parties, the Lib-Dems, UKIP, and BNP, command 4582285 votes as of the latest BBC update and 28 seats. Meanwhile, Labour commands 4553936 votes and 141 seats.

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Lib + Lab won't get over the 326 seat threshold according to projections I believe. It would have to be a multi-headed monster for Labour to form a majority coalition govt. If there's gonna be a majority coalition govt then it will have t =o be lead by the Conservatives. Otherwise the Conservatives can try to get a minority govt going with small party support on confidence and supply. However it goes, if there is a hung parliament the small parties are going to demand PR be on the table for serious consideration as the price for support.

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What are the political colours of the Alliance Party (gone from no seats to 1 seat) and Plaid Cymru (a gain of one seat so far)?

Ulster Conservatives (pretty obvious where they sit in the spectrum) has disappeared from parliament, as has Idependant and community health concern (if that's not socialist then I'll be very surprised that a right wing party would call itself this) has also gone from the political landscape.

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Well bye bye Charles Clarke :crying: Greens have gained more ground here in Norwich South +8% 7,000+ votes, Adrian Ramsey seems to be someone who is worth having in Parliament, his time will undoubtably come. I do vote for people rather than parties, plenty of people I wouldn't vote for in all parties and the converse.

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Interesting thing is that in an MMP PR system only 3 of the current parties would cross the % threshold to be guaranteed seats in parliament. All the other parties would need to win at least one electorate seat to get their PR allocation.

One fascinating thing in the minor party race is that the DUP has only 0.8% of the national vote but is sitting on 8 seats, whereas SNP has 2.3% of the antional vote but is sitting on only 6 seats.

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Wow, after all that noise about the lib-dems following the first debate, the increase in support looks to have completely failed to materialize.

They've managed to pick up a few seats that were close calls (such as Charles Clarke's seat) but, you're right, they will be sorely disappointed to lose so many seats to the Tories after a good campaign.

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Tories curretnly have 49.4% of the seats that have reported. They need 52.1% of the remaining setas to get an outright majority.

It's gonna be tight.

What are traditionally the last seats to come in? Conservative or Labour?

Here it's usually the urban seats with the really large polling stations that report latest, which means the later reporting electorates tend to be the left of centre / labour electorates. It might be a different situation in the UK though.

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What are traditionally the last seats to come in? Conservative or Labour?

The last few are safe Tory seats, but London is the big block we're waiting on.

Caveat: I'm not actually awake this early.

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Still sitting in the mid 49% for seats and needing around 52.5% of remaining seats to get an outright majority.

I think the Conservatives will get more seats than the exit poll predicted. Probably 320. But will fall just short of the majority they need.

Tight like a tiger.

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The last few are safe Tory seats, but London is the big block we're waiting on.

Caveat: I'm not actually awake this early.

BBC exit poll bar suggests there are more predicted Labour seats to come it. I suppose that's London. So it will all hang on whether London swings a lot to the Cons or not.

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