Dornish Development (aDwD spoilers)

[Guest Other-in-Law]

In his most recent blog entry, GRRM references a major event that will effect Dorne:

.. hmmm, how vague do I want be? VERY vague, I think... there's this event that would of necessity provoke a Dornish reaction. The event was originally going to occur near the end of the book, but in one of my forty-seven restructures I moved it to the late middle instead. And the timeline then required that the Dornish reaction happen in this book and not the next one, so I wrote the two Arianne chapters and was going to write a third... and a chapter from another POV that would be a necessary complement to them, and...

Any thoughts on what this event might be? My thoughts are either the death of Quentyn Martell, possibly at Ironborn hands, or maybe the death of King Tommen, which would mean that the Dornish have their hands on the sole Lannister faction claimant to the Iron Throne (unless Balon Swann managed to get her back). Both would require them to do *something*. Or it could very well be any number of other things. Any ideas?

[Jughead of the Round]

With the information we have now, I feel the reaction could be to:

1) Whatever Balon Swann was to sent to Dorne to accomplish.

2) The natural death of Doran Martell.

I feel the supplementary POV GRRM mentions would belong to Areo.

[Werthead]

I'm wondering if it's the reaction to the news that the ironborn are pinning the Reach troops down in the west whilst Mace Tyrell's army has returned to King's Landing. These actions leave Highgarden wide open to a Dornish assault. If Doran has died and more forceful hands have taken the princedome (the Sand Snakes?) this could well spark some kind of reaction in Dorne.

Those events could happen, from ADWD's perspective in the late-middle of the book. Or the news reaches Dorne much earlier in the book and then Doran dies or the Sand Snakes escape, and that's the big event that changes everything.

That's my thought anyway. The only other option, I think, is that they get news Quentyn and Daenerys are on their way back to Dorne, but that seems more likely to be something that happens at the end of the book, with Dany's invasion of Westeros happening in Book 6.

[Alexia]

1) Whatever Balon Swann was to sent to Dorne to accomplish.

This is my vote. I'm guessing Balon attempts to kidnap Myrcella and it doesn't go well.

[jurble]

Hmm, well whatever it is, it's an event that elicits a reaction Dorne. Since GRRM's one plan involved it in the middle, and Arianne then had several chapters to respond to that. It can't have been anything Quentyn related imo, unless the book covers a huge time-span, no news could have reached Arianne. I bet Doran dies.

[Joy Lannister]

I would like to note that I am certainly not very impressed with what I just read. Moving a major event close to the end of the book sounds awfully close to what was done to all major events in Feast and I'm not very fond of the idea of reading another book, however well written, of nothing happening until the very end. Hope I'm wrong about this though.

Anyway, I don't think trying to just blindly guess what this event Martin is talking about actually is would be very fruitful. We should first try to think of any and all events that meet the requirement of being able to provoke a strong Dornish reaction and then narrow our focus to the more likely hypotheses. First narrowing the focus and then searching for alternatives is not a very good strategy.

Until now we have:

1. the death of Quentyn Martell;

2. the death of Tommen;

3. Some action of Balon Swann;

4. the death of Doran Martell (my, aren't we a merry fandom);

5. Attack on Highgarden;

6. Dany being on her way back;

And from me: 7. Cersei being saved and then disposed of and Mace Tyrell taking control of the Kingdom in some way;

And just for fun: 8. the Revelation of The R+L=J Conspiracy which I guess House Martell would be rather unhappy about (lalala).

So what else do we have? (let's make them as much as possible before tearing them apart one by one ^.^)

[Liadin]

It's an event that will provoke a Dornish reaction as seen through the eyes of Arianne. Thus, it seems to me that the event itself will not take place in Dorne, presumably eliminating the death of Doran and any action by Balon.

Also, GRRM seems to believe that the reaction needs to be shown pretty close in time to the event itself (thus, putting the event in the middle meant the Arianne chapters had to be in ADWD, but moving it to the end means they don't). Thus, it's probably not happening overseas, because the lag time can be significant. So I'm guessing nothing Quentyn-related.

My vote is for either the death of Tommen, or the impending arrival of Dany.

[fionwe1987]

It's an event that will provoke a Dornish reaction as seen through the eyes of Arianne. Thus, it seems to me that the event itself will not take place in Dorne, presumably eliminating the death of Doran and any action by Balon.

Also, GRRM seems to believe that the reaction needs to be shown pretty close in time to the event itself (thus, putting the event in the middle meant the Arianne chapters had to be in ADWD, but moving it to the end means they don't). Thus, it's probably not happening overseas, because the lag time can be significant. So I'm guessing nothing Quentyn-related.

My vote is for either the death of Tommen, or the impending arrival of Dany.

I agree with both your points about the event.

Let us remember that if this event can happen late-mid book or at the end of the book, it is likely nothing to be connected with aFFC story lines. Tommen's death cannot possible occur in the late-middle of the book, can it? Given the situation in King's Landing at the end of aFFC, a quick death for Tommen seems very unlikely.

Plus, Tommen's death needn't necessarily cause Doran to react. Sure, Myrcella would be the next heir, and Balon Swann will do who knows what to that situation, but given his typical style, Doran would likely choose to wait and watch if Tommen dies, not make a claim in Myrcella's name.

Dany's arrival also seems weird for the late-middle of aDwD.

Here are some possibilities that I think can fit:

1) News reaches Dorne that Dany has three Dragons and that Tyrion and Barristan Selmy are with her: The presence of a Lannister with Dany will certainly alarm Doran and Arianne, and merit a response of some sort.

2) News reaches Dorne that Quentyn has either allied with Dany, or that she has rejected his offer of marriage: Again, this would cause some jubilation/consternation. If the former, Dorne may well call its banners to prepare for war.

If the latter, Doran may send Hotah to Quentin (the same might happen in case 1 too), thus explaining the need for 2 Dornish PoVs.

3) News reached King's Landing of Oakheart's death and Myrcella's disfigurement (whether through Swann or other sources) and as a result Dorne is attacked: This seems very possible to me. And its timing can be easily shifted, plus a reaction from Dorne is a must.

4) Someone asks for Arianne's hand in marriage: This seems very possible to me. Arianne's last chapter in aFFC definitely dealt with this issue in detail, and with so many people eager to shore up alliances, Arianne is quite the catch.

[Lord Varys]

It must be something big. At least, if we assume that Doran Martell is still in charge of Dorne, as he would not let himself being forced to react to some unimportant development.

As GRRM mentioned a Dornish reaction, all inner Dornish matters (Doran's death, for example) are out of the question. I'd even assume that it cannot be Swann's attempt to save Myrcella, as this would likely be described from a Dornish POV (I cannot see GRRM introducing Swann or Myrcella as new POVs), and thus not need a complement chapter.

And if Dany and/or Quentyn do not teleport back to Westeros, all the Meereen stuff is our of the question, too. A Dornish reaction only would be necessary, if Dorne could do something. So, for example, if a letter arrives at Sunspear, informing Doran and Arianne of Quentyn's death, there would nothing the Martells could do about that. They certainly would not declare war on, say, Volantis, or Meereen.

It must be some big political development in Westeros proper, thus it is most likely the recent development in KL. Meaning the trial of the Queens (late middle of the book makes sense, as GRRM said after 800 pages or so, the storylines covered in AFfC would be continued - that counts as 'late middle' I would think). Whatever the outcome is, it will further weaken the Western Alliance, and the time might finally come to exploit this. Especially if word about Myrcella's disfigurement gets out of Dorne, and Quentyn sends encouraging news from Meereen. It would be smarter to take the war to Highgarden/KL than to sit and wait for an invasion of Dorne. Especially as Dorne would have to attack the Lannister regime anyway, when Dany returns.

Maybe Dorne does not take on the Reach, but the Stormlands. There was this talk about some POV being in the Rainwood, if I remember correctly. And securing the eastern coastline north of Dorne might be bright to secure a safe landing spot for Daenerys. And I can see Doran talking quietly to some of the Storm Lords (we know, for example, that Oberyn's group went to KL - and likely back - through the Stormlands rather than through the Reach). With Stannis away/beaten, and the decline of the Lannister regime (who they never honestly backed, anyway) the return of House Targaryen might be a real option for them.

Tommen's death is possible. This certainly would force Dorne to do something, as they harbor the next queen. At is pretty evident that any Lannister/Tyrell in power in KL would be forced to contact/inform Dorne at once about this development, and demand to return the new Queen to her capital.

Oh, and certainly Arianne is about to marry now, at least in the near future, to gain some support for the Dornish cause among the remaining Targaryen loyalists in Westeros. There, too, the Storm Lords spring to mind, as we still knew next to nothing about them.

[GrimTuesday]

I hope it's not Doran's death. He just seems like such a cool character who really knows what he is doing. I think that it will be Dorn entering the war fighting for Myrcella's claim to the throne under Dornish law of succession. They will use her as a placeholder till Dany gets there.

[urizen]

Unfourtunatly, since I like the guy, I think Doran might bite the dust here. It's very much GRRM style to bump off the decent, intelligent characters. The Prince of Dorne's death would very much provoke a Dornish reaction, especially if it looks like KL is behind it.

Ever since we've known that Balon Swann has some hidden agenda I've wondered if that agenda might not result in both Doran and Myrcella's death(Along with Swann himself).

[Lasty]

Could be about Gregor Clegane being only mostly dead.

[Werthead]

Let us remember that if this event can happen late-mid book or at the end of the book, it is likely nothing to be connected with aFFC story lines. Tommen's death cannot possible occur in the late-middle of the book, can it? Given the situation in King's Landing at the end of aFFC, a quick death for Tommen seems very unlikely.

Remember that only the first half of ADWD runs parallel to AFFC. The second half takes place after (and will see the reappearance of AFFC POVs, if only briefly), so extremely major events with huge ramifications for Westeros and happening in the AFFC theatre of action can happen in ADWD quite easily without contradicting AFFC, as long as it happens in the second half (i.e. the late-middle to end-of-the-book period). Tommen dying quickly after the events of AFFC would be unlikely but not, IMO, impossible.

Dany's arrival also seems weird for the late-middle of aDwD.

This I agree on, especially if the Meereenese Knot (likely the events that spark Daenerys' departure from Meereen to Westeros) takes place late in the book. At best, maybe news of Quentyn's arrival in Meereen could get back to Dorne, but I don't see how it could be that Dany's forces actually reach Dorne in ADWD. If GRRM can do it, it would be brilliant, but I just don't see it happening.

3) News reached King's Landing of Oakheart's death and Myrcella's disfigurement (whether through Swann or other sources) and as a result Dorne is attacked: This seems very possible to me. And its timing can be easily shifted, plus a reaction from Dorne is a must.

This is more likely than the other possibilities, but I think still difficult. The Tyrell armies are dealing with other crises and even if Cersei is freed and exonerated of acting against Margaery (I think that Cersei and Margaery being both imprisoned mean that Cersei can spin it to the Tyrells that the Faith was acting against both of them, not at her instigation and then backfiring), I think it unlikely she would be restored as Regent. Kevan and Mace would probably prefer to send her packing back to Casterly Rock.

Of course, if Mace Tyrell's army has to fight its way into King's Landing and run the streets red with the Faith Militant's blood, and if maybe Margaery and Cersei are wounded or killed in the process, that would spark a response in Dorne. The Tyrell armies would be bled heavily in that kind of street fighting, and even if they didn't they would have to be extricated afterwards and return home. I think it's more likely that Dorne would respond to such news with an attack on Highgarden or Oldtown, especially if Doran dies and someone else (the Sand Snakes?) assumes power.

There was this talk about some POV being in the Rainwood, if I remember correctly. And securing the eastern coastline north of Dorne might be bright to secure a safe landing spot for Daenerys. And I can see Doran talking quietly to some of the Storm Lords (we know, for example, that Oberyn's group went to KL - and likely back - through the Stormlands rather than through the Reach). With Stannis away/beaten, and the decline of the Lannister regime (who they never honestly backed, anyway) the return of House Targaryen might be a real option for them.

All of this - and Gregor Clegane's revelation - is also possible, although I think the Rainwood is more likely to be a Davos POV. Having escaped death in White Harbour, he lies low for a while and then tries to return home. I can see that story making sense.

[Lord Varys]

When going back to Arianne's last chapter in AFfC, I always thought that Doran was too cautious there, as his fear of an invasion of Dorne (lead by the Lannister-Tyrell-alliance, but backed by the other kingdoms as well) was something that could no longer happen at that time:

- The Realm is disintegrating, the Western Alliance cannot count on the Vale, the Riverlands (which no longer are able to provide troops for a new war), the Ironborn, and the North. All the men the Iron Throne would have - if Cersei Queen Regent would declare war on Dorne after learning of Myrcella's fate - are Westerlanders and Reachmen. And although Mace still has sufficent troops, the Westermen are no longer fresh, if they are still in the field and not already back home.

- But further, the regime in KL is tied up by the Queen situation, and will likely need a sufficient amount of time to settle things there, and to establish a new administration. Cersei's administration completely obliterated itself, so before a new Regent/Hand could act, he would need to recreate his government.

The priorities of the leading figures of the Tyrells and Lannisters likely are now:

1) Get the one of two queens out.

If that fails: Make those pay who are responsible for the whole situation (i.e. either Cersei or House Lannister in general, especially if Margaery dies).

2) Put the Faith back into place. That will be difficult, and to succeed the two house have to work together (which I doubt they will), or the High Septon will be able to play them against each other.

If they fail: The Faith might end up becoming the dominant power in KL, getting a seat at the Small Council, or the High Septon even becoming Regent.

3) Secure the position in the alliance; meaning that Kevan/Jaime are going to try to keep the Regency/Handship in Lannister hand, and Mace is going to push for the Regency.

If the negotiations do not end peacefully, civil war will follow.

4) Enact a united policy against any third party. I'm pretty convinced that no one in KL will be able to do anything about any attack of a third party. Say, against Dany's invasion, or a the Dornish situation.

I'd argue that whatever trust there ever were between Casterly Rock and Highgarden is now completely destroyed, and that will make it impossible to enable them to build a united front, even against a common enemy. And there comes in the new about Myrcella:

Highgarden most likely has no interest in a living Myrcella in Dorne, thus they will certainly not press for war on Dorne (more likely, they will argue against it), silently hoping that she might yet die. And Euron and the Ironborn are the perfect pretext for this. There is no way that even a working Lannister-Tyrell-alliance would be able to take on the Ironborn and Dorne at the same time. Sam's last chapter made it perfectly clear. The Lords of the Reach (especially the Hightowers) are pretty pissed off by the recent developments - at least if Samwell's analysis of the situation is correct. If the Iron Throne does not show that he is willing to do something against the Ironborn, there will be consequences.

So, back to the topic:

Any news from KL - first the news about the trials, and also the news about the outcomes - will have a great impact on the political situation in Dorne. It seems that Arianne and Doran are going to work together (at least that's what I do read into the revelation of the planned Targaryen alliance, as Arianne now has no longer a reason to believe her father wants to rid himself of her, and she might even realize that Doran indeed does something, in the end), so the chances are high that news about the utter chaos in KL would convince Doran that now the time for war has come.

The death of Doran would not need a POV outside of Dorne (and GRRM already stated, that something is going to happen that would trigger a reaction of Dorne, not that something in Dorne is happening, that would need Arianne to react), and in my opinion the chances that Balon Swann actually is going to do something (the guy does not seem to be stupid) right now, are low. With the Lannister regime toppling, and him being alone in Dorne, without any assistence whatsoever, trying to free Myrcella would be suicide (as would be an assassination attempt on Doran, or Arianne).

Wert,

Davos returning home to the Rainwood feels just wrong to me. If Davos is going to survive his quest to White Harbor, he will likely not escape but win Lord Manderly over to Stannis. But even if not, even if he somehow gets away with the help of some old smuggler buddy, there is simply no way he would abandon Stannis to return home! That would contradict his entire character. And the possibility that he is forced to go along with somebody, just to end up back home I don't take seriously.

[Swense]

I, for one, agree with Varys. Davos in the rainwood makes no sense. News from the east wouldn't travel so fast, and I think both Quentyn and the Ironborn won't necessarily have a huge impact on the outside world yet. Though they will shape Dany's future decisions immensely, I think we will wait to see those future decisions until the next book.

Dorne on the attack makes sense. As we have seen by his arrest of the Sand Snakes, Doran is not incapable of decisive action. He simply is biding his time. I'm not saying he would make an excellent military commander, but he has no shortage of able commanders, including possibly some of the sandsnakes and some of his greater bannermen.

The Ironborn hold the Reach's armies in the east, and Mace is too far away for the Dornish, who would probably use massed cavalry raiding as a primary tactic, to even be concerned about. Furthermore, I agree with the guy who said that the former Baratheon territories might join the Dornish. While there is no love between them, they have a common enemy now, and Stannis has abandoned them. (also, a Dornish attack on the rainwood seems like a bad idea, if only because their fighting styles and the jungle seem rather incompatible) With that, combined with a Dornish assault which pressed up towards Highgarden, the Reach could rapidly fold under the pressure and Dany could already have half the battle won for her by the time her Unsullied show up.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

(I think that Cersei and Margaery being both imprisoned mean that Cersei can spin it to the Tyrells that the Faith was acting against both of them, not at her instigation and then backfiring)

I doubt that. Besides the fact that the High Septon will undoubtedly get a chance to speak with Mace before Cersei does, and lay out his side of the story (including testimony from the Kettleblack who confessed the entire plot, from killing the High Septon on), Margaery is likely to pin the blame on Cersei as well. I would be surprised if Cersei was able to spin her way past all that.

[Spaceman Hobbes]

I think it has to be some sort of break down in the Tyrell Lannister alliance. I'm not sure if that is the death of someone important or just Mace making a power play for the regency, but anything that results in the Tyrells and Lannisters fighting in the streets could provoke a preemptive strike from Doran.

Or maybe LF gets off his ass and declares the Riverlands/Vale/North as it's own kingdom and while everyone runs off to try to stop him, Doran decides to take Highgarden.

[guciomir]

What if Darkstar make another attack at Myrcella life and this time the girl dies? (or if you do not believe in Darkstar, than imagine that Myrcella just dies, falls from the horse etc) It would force Doran to react somehow and it would be quite game turning.

[Lord Varys]

We won't get a Sansa chapter in ADwD, so nothing involving Littlefinger should happen. And even if he would appear in the book, Petyr Baelish is not going to do something as stupid as to declare himself a King, or the independence of the kingdoms he does rule. He made a huge show out of staying away from the High Seat of House Arryn, so declaring himself King is completely out of the question (although, I admit, that he has a good chance to remain as one of the last men standing in the end, then maybe owning five or six of the Seven Kingdoms ;-)).

Tommen's death, too, would be a possibility. I always assumed that Varys remained in KL to orchestrate that particular unpleasant event, and if he lets it coincide with the sentence of the two queens - and forges evidence implicating the Tyrells - KL will bathe in blood.

All under the assumption that the Lannisters and Tyrells keep quiet until then. If I judge Mace right, the chances are high that he butchers first, and asks questions later. And if he arrives first in KL (which is likely, as Storm's End is much nearer to KL than Casterly Rock), then there is not only no one in KL to oppose him, but also no one with the guts and capability to explain things to him, or to calm him down.

And really, if I were Mace, I would not give a damn about Ser Kevan and this impotent Kingslayer. Not only is Cersei responsible for Margaery's situation, but she has already orchestrated (not prevented) the (near) death of my favorite son (assuming that Loras really was hurt). I can see me being really, really pissed.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

If I judge Mace right, the chances are high that he butchers first, and asks questions later.

Based on what, specifically? I can think of people who speak about Mace's stubborn ambition, and Tyrion thought of him as something of a blowhard, but I can't think of any time when Mace Tyrell had shown himself to be ruthless.