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Dornish Development (aDwD spoilers)


Guest Other-in-Law

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All we know (or suspect) about the Golden Company's intentions right now is, that the fact that head east may indicate that their final goal is Meereen. And the fact that they terminated a contract to do so (although they are known to fulfill any contract they make) may also indicate that they do not so because somebody (for example the Volantenes) hired them to help them bring Daenerys down, but out of personal interest.

On the Blackfyre pretender situation:

I'm not sure that we could assume that there are still any male Blackfyres around (females would only count if they were Dany-like), as I honestly doubt that the Targaryens in Westeros would stop calling any son/grandson of Maelys the Monstrous 'Blackfyre Pretender', even if he had sent an official declaration of abdication to King's Landing. The mere existence of the other royal House was a threat to the Targaryens, so it makes little sense that they would believe or accept this new situation.

About the Golden Company we do not know much during the War of the Ninepenny Kings, but we do know that Maelys was the head of the Band, and also head of the Golden Company (or am I mistaken, there?. So if Maelys lead the Golden Company, their assistence to his cause was not exactly a matter of negotiation, and not necessarily motivated by their deep-rooted Targaryen hatred. And as not only Maelys was beaten then, but the whole Band of Nine, it makes no sense to expect that the Golden Company - who likely was beaten, too - should continue the war in name of Maelys' speculative heirs.

Bittersteel's descendants may still be around among the Golden Company, but despite Bittersteel being the strongest supporter of Daemon I, he himself was not a Blackfyre, and until GRRM does not tell us that he himself tried eventually to win the Iron Throne for himself, I don't see his family having the same status/fame as the Blackfyre family. And it actually would not make that much sense to assume that there would no longer be a working relationship between Bittersteels and the Blackfyres, if Bittersteel tried to usurp the rights of Daemon's grandsons.

And in the end there is the fact that Viserys Targaryen once feasted the Golden Company, and tried to convince them to fight for him. That would have been most difficult/risky, I assume, if there were still Blackfyres among the Golden Company leadership, or the Bittersteel descendants there still wanted to eradicate all Targaryens left.

I'm rather in the camp of those people who assume that Dany being the Mother of Dragons will be seen as a sign that she is the true and rightful Queen of Westeros - and the fact that there are three dragons, not just one, lets her all the more appear as reborn female version of Aegon the Conqueror (and three dragons also make it possible that one of there ranks will become a dragon rider). It can't be a coincidence that the recently published TMK explicitly was about the impact a reborn dragon would have for the Blackfyre/Targaryen supporters.

Daenerys also will be the best chance of return the Golden Company exiles have got since the founding.

To come back to the topic, I can't see the Golden Company being involved in the stuff leading to a Dornish reaction.

Although we might start to talk about Aurane Waters. If he does not become a pirate, does not sail to Stannis or Daenerys, but sells himself and his fleet over to Euron Greyjoy, the Ironborn might become a real threat (not only for the Reach but for the Redwyne Fleet as well). But to raid/attack Dorne would still not be a good idea, I think, as it is scarcely populated, and has mostly rocky shores.

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I can't see whoever will be in charge of Tommen in ADwD/TWoW to appoint a Dornishman as master-of-arms (and certainly not Darkstar, even if they would know nothing about his involvement in the Myrcella incident). This just makes no sense at all. Kevan would appoint a Westerman, and Mace certainly never a Dornishman. The Reach is full of good knights (as are the Westerlands), so this would never even cross his mind.

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Guest Other-in-Law

Cersei explicitly announced her intention to appoint a Dornishman as the Red Keep's Master-at-Arms, after bridling at the sight of Loras training Tommen. Now, she may or may not ever regain sufficient power to do so, but why even include that particular tidbit if it never bears any fruit later on?

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OiL,

Having read, many years ago, a version of "The Princess of the Tower" in which there are some notable differences from the final product...

I truly believe that your idea (Dayne becoming master-at-arms) was something GRRM intended when he originally wrote that line for Cersei. But I'm pretty sure it's something that's since fallen by the wayside and he's going in a different direction with Ser Gerold Dayne. In which case, Cersei's line is just something GRRM missed or did not consider particularly important enough to remove.

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Guest Other-in-Law

Having read, many years ago, a version of "The Princess of the Tower" in which there are some notable differences from the final product...

Interesting. Are you at liberty to divulge what the differences were and why it seems like the current plot seems to have diverged? I'd definitely like to hear it if so, but I understand GRRM sometimes likes to play his cards close to his chest on various issues.

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OiL,

Having read, many years ago, a version of "The Princess of the Tower" in which there are some notable differences from the final product...

I truly believe that your idea (Dayne becoming master-at-arms) was something GRRM intended when he originally wrote that line for Cersei. But I'm pretty sure it's something that's since fallen by the wayside and he's going in a different direction with Ser Gerold Dayne. In which case, Cersei's line is just something GRRM missed or did not consider particularly important enough to remove.

Interesting. Other-in-law has been making all the points that I would have made about the Dornish master of arms possibility.

I can't speak to what GRRM intends to do with Darkstar, but he still remains a front-runner for surprises to Dorne that would provoke a reaction. My recollection of AFFC is that he never really indicated his motives to Arianne. I think generally, the Golden Company and so on predictions are going quite big when whatever mysterious event that GRRM is talking about is likely to be precise albeit significant rather than a game changer like the events in Merreen.

About the Golden Company possibility, I agree that a deep-seated hatred for all things Targ isn't a sufficient motivator to explain why they are heading to Dany. They want something or they have some tricks up their sleeve to take the dragons. After all, the dragons are the most valuable things she possesses.

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Ran,

as you mentioned the differences in 'The Princess in the Tower', can explain notable differences, and outline more why you assume that this version pointed towards Darkstar becoming master-at-arms in the Red Keep? Did Cersei already appoint him in this version?

About Cersei's thoughts in the finalized version, I interpret this as another sign for Cersei's inability to rule. In matters she does not care about much (or does not understand) she sticks to the way things were, and thus the fact that Aron Santagar was from Dorne somehow makes her think his successor should be a Dornishman, too.

Also, it fits perfectly with the way the Cersei is portrayed in AFfC, as she continously thinks about plans that never come true (her plan to remove Jon from power at the Wall, for example)

Oh, and do we know how Santagar became master-at-arms? It seems strange for Robert to appoint a Dornishman. Was he, too, a leftover from Aerys' reign? Aerys might have appointed a successor to Willem Darry, as he likely no longer was able to perform his duties as master-of-arms after he accompanied Rhaella and Viserys to Dragonstone.

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About the Golden Company possibility, I agree that a deep-seated hatred for all things Targ isn't a sufficient motivator to explain why they are heading to Dany. They want something or they have some tricks up their sleeve to take the dragons. After all, the dragons are the most valuable things she possesses.

It may be that the remaining Bittersteels think they can get attract one or all of them on blood alone. Remember Ben Plumm. As for hating Targaryens...they hated them as rivals, perhaps, but if a Bittersteel could marry the last remaining legitimate heir I doubt he'd scruple. "Seal the breach" and all that. After all, the Targaryens were all about keeping it in the family. If nothing else, offering to help Dany might get the Bittersteels legitimized (especially if she really cannot have children) and the whole company a ticket home as members of a conquering army to boot.

If they just wanted to kill her, why didn't they when she and Viserys were kids?

All we know (or suspect) about the Golden Company's intentions right now is, that the fact that head east may indicate that their final goal is Meereen. And the fact that they terminated a contract to do so (although they are known to fulfill any contract they make) may also indicate that they do not so because somebody (for example the Volantenes) hired them to help them bring Daenerys down, but out of personal interest.

Absolutely. If their reputation (and fee, I imagine) is based on loyalty it doesn't make sense to switch sides out of the blue, esp. when Volantis doesn't seem to be part of the war brewing between Myr and Lys and Tyrosh. What could make them kill their cash cow but some overwhelming, perhaps nonfinancial interest?

"No," she said. "I would believe it of any of the other free companies, yes. Most of them would change sides for half a groat. The Golden Company is different. A brotherhood of exiles and the sons of exiles, united by the dream of Bittersteel. It's home they want, as much as gold." -AFfC, p. 198 ("The Soiled Knight")

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UnGregor replaces Oakheart as a Kingsguard and defends Cersei at the Trial by Battle.

No chance.. No one on the grand council will want to listen to Qyburn anymore

I feel that's its gonna be more of an explanation of what happened between R + L = J and how the Dornish people are going to have to act, knowing that a Targ was not only getting it off with another woman but also got a kid on her

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  • 8 months later...

I'm surprised this thread died so quickly given that Dorne being forced to react to an event serves as a pretty big clue on what might transpire in other parts of the realm. My own guess, given time line considerations, is that the event in question is Tommen's death. Quentyn Martell is too far off for him to factor in this discussion, as I see it, since the Meereenese Knot is not likely to occur early enough for its result to reach Dorne so quickly. The only other possibility, in my opinion, is if Dorne got word that Gregor was alive in some form -- but I tend to doubt this on several grounds. I'm not even sure Dorne would react to this news directly.

And the reaction? I say that after finding out about Tommen's death, Dorne sends a missive to King's Landing declaring for Daenerys Targaryen, throwing the realm into chaos.

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Remember that only the first half of ADWD runs parallel to AFFC. The second half takes place after (and will see the reappearance of AFFC POVs, if only briefly), so extremely major events with huge ramifications for Westeros and happening in the AFFC theatre of action can happen in ADWD quite easily without contradicting AFFC, as long as it happens in the second half (i.e. the late-middle to end-of-the-book period). Tommen dying quickly after the events of AFFC would be unlikely but not, IMO, impossible.

This I agree on, especially if the Meereenese Knot (likely the events that spark Daenerys' departure from Meereen to Westeros) takes place late in the book. At best, maybe news of Quentyn's arrival in Meereen could get back to Dorne, but I don't see how it could be that Dany's forces actually reach Dorne in ADWD. If GRRM can do it, it would be brilliant, but I just don't see it happening.

This is more likely than the other possibilities, but I think still difficult. The Tyrell armies are dealing with other crises and even if Cersei is freed and exonerated of acting against Margaery (I think that Cersei and Margaery being both imprisoned mean that Cersei can spin it to the Tyrells that the Faith was acting against both of them, not at her instigation and then backfiring), I think it unlikely she would be restored as Regent. Kevan and Mace would probably prefer to send her packing back to Casterly Rock.

Of course, if Mace Tyrell's army has to fight its way into King's Landing and run the streets red with the Faith Militant's blood, and if maybe Margaery and Cersei are wounded or killed in the process, that would spark a response in Dorne. The Tyrell armies would be bled heavily in that kind of street fighting, and even if they didn't they would have to be extricated afterwards and return home. I think it's more likely that Dorne would respond to such news with an attack on Highgarden or Oldtown, especially if Doran dies and someone else (the Sand Snakes?) assumes power.

All of this - and Gregor Clegane's revelation - is also possible, although I think the Rainwood is more likely to be a Davos POV. Having escaped death in White Harbour, he lies low for a while and then tries to return home. I can see that story making sense.

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Hi this is my first post in Westeros. Try to keep the rookie hazing to a minimum. Werthead brings up an interesting point that I hadn't considered previously. The Faith will go ballistic if Cersei is freed as a result of trial by combat. The High Septon has coerced a confession out of Osney Kettleblack, they know that she is guilty and Margaery is taking the fall for House Lannisters' ambition. The Warriors Sons have been given free reign to govern as they see fit thanks to Jamie's sweet sister. The people of King's Landing are ready to explode and no matter who emerges victorious in the trial, the streets will be awash with blood. It may be that Daenerys may walk right in untouched thanks to all the fighting in the Westerosi capital. Sorry I am all over the place, feel free to agree or disagree, the posters on this forum in general are top notch.

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I've long thought that Tommen's death would be a natural thing to move the story along. Perhaps an "accidental" death while training with his new Dornish weapons master.

I think Cersei's story is headed for a close, and that her prophesy will play out. Meaning that both Tommen and Myrcella are headed for their golden shrouds. In order for Myrcella to wear a crown of gold, Tommen needs to bite it, and probably relatively soon in the series.

Dorne would then hold the putative heir to the thrown, while being allied to another claimant, Dany. I could see Dorne crowing Myrcella and holding her while waiting for Dany to land. Once Dany lands, Dorne announces that it has proof of the Jaime + Cersei rumors being true (whether it actually does or not) and announces for Dany. I could also see Myrcella subsequently being executed when it's announced that she's bastard born or perhaps she dies in a botched escape attempt.

Side note: I believe that if Tommen and Myrcella are both dead, Stannis is Dany's heir, leading to interesting possibilities if Dany is indeed barren.

Edit to my side note: Actually, Stannis is Dany's heir regardless of whether Tommen or Myrcella are alive. What would change would be that he would be Dany's heir and they'd be the only two claimants to the throne.

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My own spin on matters is that the Lannisters will crown Myrcella in abstenia while Dorne will just declare for Daenerys ahead of time -- that is, before they are even sure she is willing to ally with them. I had it in mind that Arianne would be the one behind these rash decisions, which might mean that Doran is dead at this point. Or maybe not even that -- the death of Tommen might bring things to such a head that even Doran could not afford to be cautious anymore. Because if Tommen dies, then the Martells are put in a very tricky position. Presumably, according to what was agreed to between Tyrion and Doran, Myrcella would become queen and Trystane Martell would be the queen's consort under the circumstances. But Doran can no longer afford to play this ruse anymore, not with Tommen's death -- especially with Balon Swann on his way, only now, to bring the queen home.

There is also another aspect to this whole quagmire and that is the Tyrells. With Tommen dead and Myrcella the presumed heir to the throne -- betrothed to a Martell no less -- what will become of their allegiance? How will the the Lannisters placate them then? They are already the weaker party, at least militarily so, and the only thing keeping them in power is the fact that Tommen and Myrcella are the presumed heirs to the throne. Might the Tyrells declare for Daenerys as well? You question if they even known about her but if they do, isn't it better to join her cause then go down with the Lannisters?

An alternate scenario, or rather, a refinement of my previous scenario, is that the Martells go all the way in. Not only do they hold Myrcella hostage and declare for Daenerys, but they launch a preemptive strike on the Reach while the Highgarden forces are occupied elsewhere. Under this set of circumstances, I think Doran would almost have to be dead and Arianne and the Sand Snakes would be running Dorne since I can't see Doran doing something this bold without assurances that Quentyn was successful. And by the way, to add to this, I don't think Quentyn will be successful -- Daenerys will be coming back with the Ironborn, most likely as a captive of Euron. All that will factor later though. With Dorne attacking the Reach, this would at least provide justification for the Tyrells and Lannisters to keep with their alliance, this time to defeat the Martells and get Myrcella back, in order to marry Willas, I would think.

Either way, Myrcella will die at some point as well. And that's when Daenerys comes in -- although I don't know how -- because she's really the only person left who can legitimately claim the throne save Stannis, who neither the Martells or the Tyrells will bow to -- on that point at least, I think they will agree. The Lannisters on the other hand, face rough waters no matter how things play out.

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interesting points.

Alleluia - regarding Doran - I wouldn't assume that, because he has yet to be seen to make an overt move yet (or ever), that he can't, ever. Like Petyr, he's playing a very long, very subtle plan, clearly with many go/no go points. It could very well be (not that I'm say it IS), that when everything achieves a critical mass, and is lined up exactly according to what he knows and desires, he'll commit to a strong military/political move.

some people think like that, they seem to do nothing, and then , boom, they overpower their opposition.

about the Targ's and the Iron Throne - one thing that underlies this story, that seems to get missed or glossed over:

Dany, technically, isn't the rightful ruler of Westeros. Her House is an invader, alien (even if now "settled"). They might have conquered and ruled the Seven Kingdoms, but that doesn't mean that Westeros is naturally disposed to being unified.

Considering the weight of memory/history/tradition and pride in those in Westeros...

i dunno. it just seems like something to consider.

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As others have stated, though, Tommen's death would have too great an effect on too many storylines other than Dorne to "tweak a few lines" and have it moved.

Maybe the Ironborn could attack Sunspear... That would provoke a Dornish response, but no one else would necessarily care, and if the event is in the late-middle, it would be after the AFFC parts.

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@Nukelavee

One thing that must be understood is that I assume this will all take place before the Martells get confirmation of Quentyn's success. So under those circumstances, I don't think launching an invasion of the Reach would be smart in any sense -- all it does is push the Tyrells right back into Lannister arms. That's why if that happens, it would have to be under the direction of Arianne and the less clever Sand Snakes. Declaring for Daenerys though, that I can see Doran doing if Tommen dies if only because he'll be out of options at that point. He can ignore the ravens and hold Balon Swann prisoner, but what will that do? Delay the inevitable?

The other thing is, and this is only my own opinion, but I'm rather wedded to the idea that Quentyn will fail. I think Daenerys will be captured and possibly raped by Euron -- per the prophecy in the House of the Undying as the mount "to dread" -- before being brought back to Westeros in "partnership" with the Ironborn. How she'll get out of that, I've no idea right now. But I see that coming in the next book after ADwD, so I'll have time to come up with some crackpot theory on that -- provided, of course, I'm even right to this point.

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As others have stated, though, Tommen's death would have too great an effect on too many storylines other than Dorne to "tweak a few lines" and have it moved.

I'd thought the event was now moved towards the end of the book and the reaction, through Arianne's POV, would come in the next book. Thus, George wouldn't be forced to do much but tweak a few lines under that timeline. All these effects would be felt in the next book.

Edit: Taken from Werthead's post:

"27 June 2010 Update:

George R.R. Martin has given a detailed account of some recent restructuring on A Dance with Dragons. He revealed that a major event taking place in the late-middle of the book had necessitated the writing of 'reaction' chapters from the point of view of the Dornish, via the POV character of Arianne Martell (introduced in A Feast for Crows and previously not thought to be in ADWD), as well as some other chapters expanding on the event. However, the event has now been moved until later in the book and the 'reaction' material he had been anticipating having to write has now fallen back to The Winds of Winter. As a result, he now has less material to complete for ADWD than envisaged. This also means that ADWD will be somewhat shorter than previously estimated (when it was coming in around the same size as A Storm of Swords)."

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