Relative army strengths of the Great Houses

[Free Northman Reborn]

Martin's specific comment that the North takes far longer to raise its full strength due to its geography and size, and secondly that Northern Lords are much more hesitant to release their men during Harvest time, seems to be lost to many of the posters. It almost seems to be dismissed as just a nice bit of added colour to the world, but to be of no real impact on Robb's host size.

I find this attitude astounding.

It seems clear to me that Martin made that comment because it is of specific plot relevance, namely that it is meant to explain why Robb's host is only 20k in size instead of 30k or more. The fact that he decided to give Torhenn Stark a 30k strong host - when he could easily have made his historical host 20k as well, surely just enhances this point. He had no need to depict Torhenn as bringing 30k men South of the Neck, other than to have it serve as a point of comparison for Robb's host which passed through exactly the same area.

In light of Martin's specific comment about the North's challenges in raising its full strength at first muster, during Harvest time, it should be clear that Robb's 20k host MUST be a significantly smaller percentage of his total strength than Tywin's 35k host is of his. I find it very plausible that Robb's 20k represents in the region of 50% of his total strength - given Martin's statement on the matter - while the Lannister 35k could easily represent in the region of 75% of their strength.

That would then take you to a full strength for the two regions of around 40k for the North and around 45k for the Westerlands.

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I find it astonishing that time and time again you mention this quote from GRRM when it is not labelled at Robb or used in reference to his army raised in the books.

I'd say these three kingdoms were roughly equal in the force they could assemble... but the north is much bigger, so it takes longer for an army to gather. And life is harsher there as well, so lords and smallfolk both need to think carefully before beating those plowshares into swords.

Robb took longer to assemble his army than Tywin or Edmure did, quite a bit longer. We are even given a description of his army

This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. When their lords called, they came … but not forever.

We even get Houses like the Umbers and Karstarks complaining about not having enough men to bring in the harvest, Hornwood not having enough men to defend itself or the Stark lands being deprived of  "all the likely lads for leagues around."

The assumption that GRRM has gone out of his way to only mention the Houses who are suffering the most seems strange. Not impossible, but unlikely.

I mean we are five books into the series as well as a world book and there is absolutely nothing in all of that material that gives the North a 40k army. Just where has this 20k Northern army been hiding?

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

I find it astonishing that time and time again you mention this quote from GRRM when it is not labelled at Robb or used in reference to his army raised in the books.

I'd say these three kingdoms were roughly equal in the force they could assemble... but the north is much bigger, so it takes longer for an army to gather. And life is harsher there as well, so lords and smallfolk both need to think carefully before beating those plowshares into swords.

Robb took longer to assemble his army than Tywin or Edmure did, quite a bit longer. We are even given a description of his army

This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. When their lords called, they came … but not forever.

We even get Houses like the Umbers and Karstarks complaining about not having enough men to bring in the harvest, Hornwood not having enough men to defend itself or the Stark lands being deprived of  "all the likely lads for leagues around."

The assumption that GRRM has gone out of his way to only mention the Houses who are suffering the most seems strange. Not impossible, but unlikely.

I mean we are five books into the series as well as a world book and there is absolutely nothing in all of that material that gives the North a 40k army. Just where has this 20k Northern army been hiding?

How can he be any clearer than in the quote above? Robb may have taken longer, but it still was not nearly long enough. Robb said as much - he couldn't wait any longer, he had to depart with the 12000 at Winterfell. And it was still Harvest time in Dance, long after Robb's war was over. So those lords and smallfolk who "think carefully before beating plowshares into swords" would only now become available for war.

The Umbers and Karstarks were not amongst those careful lords. But many others were. Such as the Dustins, whose explicit example we have to that effect. And the Mountain Clans, clearly.

As to where this 20k Northern army "is hiding?" How about this rather plausible answer:

• 3000 with the Mountain Clans
• 3000 from Skagos
• 2000 with Lady Dustin
• 1000 with the Ryswells
• 4500 with the Manderlys (including the men they sent with Rodrik and the men that fought the Boltons in the Hornwood lands)
• 1500 with the Boltons (including Ramsay's 600 Dreadfort garrison and the reserve forces that were fighting the Manderlys in the Hornwood lands)
• 500 with the Mormonts (including Dacey's few hundred that assisted Stannis at Deepwood Motte)
• 700 from the Karstarks (in addition to their original 2300, including those contributed to Rodrik's host and with Arnolf)
• 800 with the Umbers -Mors and Hother
• 1000 with the Reeds
• 500 from the Flints at Widow's Watch
• 500 with the Flints of Flint's Finger
• 1500 from the depths of the Wolfswood - of which Stannis has gathered around 500 to date
• 500 with the Lockes
• 1500 from the Starks, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Hornwoods etc that were contributed to Rodrick's host.
• 2000  miscellaneous refugee soldiers that is being gathered by Manderly in White Harbor as seen by Davos

This takes us to well beyond 20k, in fact, closer to 25k.

The above is very plausible, and yet, due to its fragmented nature - and the lack of the military leaders of virtually every one of those Houses, these forces would not have been readily available or easily gathered to engage the Ironborn at the time when Robb was in the South. In fact, this force was so widely dispersed, each group guarding their home territories or busy with the Harvest, that it is little wonder that Robb needed to return North to try and rally them into a single army.

So you asked where this 20k army has been hiding. That's where it's been hiding, in my view.

This is also the force Stannis was hoping to gather when he wanted to rally the North to his banner under Jon Stark, in the hope of relaunching his campaign to take the Iron Throne.

[UFT]

my list. not including green boys given a shield and a spear and told to fight in a line. and as of the most recent events.

1. tyrells.  they have some of the best knights, and a truly massive area to call from, due to the fertile land and food supply.

2. targaryens. scattered and disunited, however dany can raise about 10 000 if she really pushes it and aegon straight up has ten thousand. that puts them at around 20 000 but thats 20 000 of some of the best soldiers in the world, fiercely loyal to their targaryen lords no less. plus 3 dragons. 

3. Arryns. i have the arryns above martells even though they have similar amounts of men,because of the quality of their knights and discipline.  also the arryns live in a more proud, militaristic area and theyre always fighting the mountain clans. most importantly, like martells theyve stayed out of the whole thing 

4. Martells. yet to commit, thus have taken no losses. dornish spearmen are also very tough due to the harsh conditions.

5. lannisters. took a huge hit during the war, but have tough veteran soldiers who would have been at blackwater bay. i would say cersei could call her banners and get a nice army but nowhere near what it was before the war started.

6. hightowers. powerful bannermen that took no losses except for euron's raid, and command much of the chivalry of the south. thrice that of the next strongest bannermen

7. royces. second strongest house in the vale. banners would be 4000 men at least. 

8. boltons. directly, theyre very powerful, but unreliable current bannermen weaken their chances considerably. 

9. baratheons. mostly smashed. stannis is stuck begging for men

10. freys. ascended to a great house but they don't have much in the way of loyal allies and their armies took a hit under robb

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, UFT said:

my list. not including green boys given a shield and a spear and told to fight in a line.

1. tyrells.  they have some of the best knights, and a truly massive area to call from, due to the fertile land and food supply.

2. lannisters - not accounting for all the mercenaries they can hire. plus some great knights sire from there.

3. arryns. i have the arryns above starks and martells even though they have the same amount of men,because of the quality of their knights and discipline. the north and dorne seem more rugged. sometimes the invididual soldier quality can make a difference. also the arryns live in a more proud, militaristic area and theyre always fighting the mountain clans.

4. starks/martells

5. baratheons

6. tullys

7. hightowers

8. redwynes

9. greyjoys

10. hard to say. probably either royces or freys. both are the second most powerful houses in a powerful fertile region of westeros

Dorne is no longer at the North and the Vale's level. That was the level the rest of Westeros "believed they were at". But Doran corrected that, confirming to Arriane that Dorne is in fact the least populous of the Seven mainland kingdoms.

So from the bottom up, you have the Iron Isles, then a step up to Dorne, then a step up to the Stormlands, then a step up to the likes of the Vale, Riverlands, North and Westerlands (in uncertain order), then a step up to the Reach.