U.S. Politics 19

[Guest Raids]

What does it say that I no longer find The Newt to be that frightening?

Also, is there anyone on earth more midwestern and white than Thune?

[TrackerNeil]

So my guess for the first to announce will be Pawlenty or Thune.

Maybe not Thune.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

Maybe not Thune.

He's still a "maybe", but this sure sounds like a guy who's running just trying to keep up the suspense:

Still, Thune suggested another factor leaning against a presidential campaign is the apprehension of his wife, who has read “Game Change” - the book by reporters Mark Halperin and John Heileman that at times illustrates the dark side of political campaigns in excruciating detail.

“It was not helpful,” he said of the book. “But in spite of having read ‘Game Change,’ she’s somebody who really believes in public service, and she’s been a real trooper in all the campaigns. So however this ends up for us, she will be ready to go to work,” he added.

That sounds to me like a guy setting up his explanation for why he won't be there for a lot of Senate votes. "Reluctantly", he'll run. I mean, that's the reason you speak at CPAC.

And that's the same reason I suspect Daniels will run:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/11/cpac-knocked-for-inviting-mitch-daniels/

Daniels to me is the guy set up to bridge the gap between the folks who won't vote for Palin, and the folks who won't vote for Romney. Some hard-right social conservatives are ticked at Daniels, but I think his stance actually will attract more support than it loses. He actually gets that "it's the economy, stupid."

[alguien]

He's still a "maybe", but this sure sounds like a guy whose running just trying to keep up the suspense:

Still, Thune suggested another factor leaning against a presidential campaign is the apprehension of his wife, who has read “Game Change” - the book by reporters Mark Halperin and John Heileman that at times illustrates the dark side of political campaigns in excruciating detail.

“It was not helpful,” he said of the book. “But in spite of having read ‘Game Change,’ she’s somebody who really believes in public service, and she’s been a real trooper in all the campaigns. So however this ends up for us, she will be ready to go to work,” he added.

That sounds to me like a guy setting up his explanation for why he won't be there for a lot of Senate votes. "Reluctantly", he'll run.

Yeah, I'm not counting him out either. I see him as a fairly likely VP choice depending on who wins the GOP primary.

[alguien]

What does it say that I no longer find The Newt to be that frightening?

That the GOP strategy worked! ;)

I don't think Newt Gingrich has any real chance. Too many skeletons. But he's arrogant enough to keep trying. His hypocrisy is astonishing.

The four most likely IMO are Pawlenty, Romney, Daniels, or Thune.

The only reason I think Thune has an outside chance is because he's non-controversial and looks OK in front of a camera.

Pawlenty is really gearing up for it with his new book, but I'm less than impressed with him. He shows no real ability for critical analysis beyond parroting talking points.

Romney has Mass. healthcare (and Mormonism) going against him, Daniels has budget position under Bush and he doesn't seem as "presidential" in terms of physical appearance. However, in terms of effectiveness, I think they are the two "best". (as in least worst)

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

The Republicans have no one who can beat Obama. It's already tough to beat a sitting president, and Obama hasn't pissed off his base enough to make them forget that they hate and fear Republicans. Everyone who runs is just practicing for 2016 when they might have a shot.

[ThinkerX]

::Waits for Rush Limbaugh to jump in the running for president. Afterall, he already effectively controls the republican party and has a huge herd of admirers out there, plus plenty of money:::

[TerraPrime]

::Waits for Rush Limbaugh to jump in the running for president. Afterall, he already effectively controls the republican party and has a huge herd of admirers out there, plus plenty of money:::

*cough*oxycontin*cough*

[DanteGabriel]

*cough*oxycontin*cough*

*cough*racist scumbag whoremonkey who has no interest in leading, just wants to profit off the fires of stupidity he lights*cough*

[Spaceman Hobbes]

I mostly agree with that. The Republicans gave up on their goal of ruining the economy to hurt Obama when they got their shot at extending tax cuts for the rich. The only way Obama loses now is if the economy goes into a totally unexpected tanking, ThinkerX style.

Obama will be even more difficult to beat because of how rapid the right's base has become. When the left gets back out to vote in the Presidential election and the GOP's candidate has to track ever-rightward the middle will get sick of the GOP again.

ETA: Fucking Freud....I meant rabid, not rapid.

I think it really depends on who the GOP runs. If they put forth an economy first, lets cut spending across all boards(including the military), candidate and platform the GOP could do very very well in 2012. If they try to focus on social issues and teabag the hell out of America, they'll lose the house and Obama gets four more years.

[Swordfish]

I'm considering running myself...

Come on, you guys know you want to work on my campaign.....

Who's in?

[ThinkerX]

*cough*oxycontin*cough*

*cough*racist scumbag whoremonkey who has no interest in leading, just wants to profit off the fires of stupidity he lights*cough*

Like this sets him apart from most other Republican (and quite a few Democratic) politicians?

Again...

instant name recongnition in all 50 states

already effectively has the republican party doing his bidding

a huge number of brainwashed supporters out there

more than enough money

And Fox News would probably become his campaign propaganda arm.

Now...given all that...were he actually inclined to jump into the ring...would he not have a realistic chance of coming out on top?

[Shryke]

*cough*racist scumbag whoremonkey who has no interest in leading, just wants to profit off the fires of stupidity he lights*cough*

I love his latest racist outburst and the fact that calls by a California State Senator to apologize for his blatantly racist remarks have lead to that State Senator receiving death threats.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/27/rush-limbaugh-boycott-leland-yee_n_814601.html

[DanteGabriel]

Like this sets him apart from most other Republican (and quite a few Democratic) politicians?

By definition, yes. As corrupt, feckless, and beholden to their corporate masters as most of our politicians are, they have at least put themselves in the public arena, accepted the responsibility of leadership, and subjected themselves to the judgment of their constituency. They may suck at it, but at least they're on the field.

I think you quite missed the point of what I said. I said he had no interest in leading.

All Limbaugh does is sit in the peanut gallery and prey on the fear and insecurity of others. He's beholden to no one except his own pocketbook. We can't vote his malignant swollen ass out of office.

And Sarah Palin, by choosing to resign halfway through her term and grift the Teabag Nation for money, has revealed herself to be even a lesser creature than the rest of the Republican politicians. She's more a Limbaugh than a politician.

Now...given all that...were he actually inclined to jump into the ring...would he not have a realistic chance of coming out on top?

And this is the point you've missed. He is not inclined to jump into the ring because he is a cowardly punk who would never subject himself to that kind of official responsibility. And he makes way too much money on his whoremonkey antics to consider giving that up for public service. I'll eat my Patriots cap if Limbaugh runs for anything.

[DanteGabriel]

Speaking of right wing whoremonkeys, can the right wing please stop comparing legal abortion to slavery? You're convincing no one except your own benighted tribe, and making yourselves look like patronizing, ignorant assholes in the process.

[Tempra]

Not too surprising that Reagan's SG would think that. The mandate was a widely accepted item that was considered viable by GHWB officials, the Heritage Foundation, and swathes of the GOP Congress in the early 90's. This is largely politics.

BUT...

I am amazed at this severability (sp) issue. Here's Jonathan Turley from GWU who I'm pretty sure is a pretty liberal guy writing that it's somewhat stunning that they didn't include such a clause.

I don't get the feeling that too many judges will rule as the judge in Florida just did. But it seems like the Democrats left themselves with a potentially huge head ache and I'm not sure why.

If I may borrow a phrase from our President, Congress "acted stupidly." My apartment lease has a severability clause. My cell phone agreement has a severability clause. My gym membership agreement has a severability clause. No one in Congress read this bill. That much is plainly clear.

A severability clause may not have saved the law, but there is absolutely no excuse for it not to be in there.

[Ormond]

I love his latest racist outburst and the fact that calls by a California State Senator to apologize for his blatantly racist remarks have lead to that State Senator receiving death threats.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/27/rush-limbaugh-boycott-leland-yee_n_814601.html

This is a minor point, but according to the article you link to, so far it's just one threat, not "threats".

[TrackerNeil]

The Republicans have no one who can beat Obama. It's already tough to beat a sitting president, and Obama hasn't pissed off his base enough to make them forget that they hate and fear Republicans. Everyone who runs is just practicing for 2016 when they might have a shot.

Well, I agree with this only in that I think that in 2012, as in most election years, the state of the economy will be the determinative factor. Unlike many, I don't think the Republican wave in 2010 was because of the deficit** or Democratic legislative overreaching but because 1) the party in power traditionally suffers losses in off-year elections and 2) when things are bad voters blame the party in power. If unemployment has dropped and the economy seems to be on the upswing, I think that absent some scandal, Obama will win. If not, he will have difficulty.

That's also why I don't pay much attention to polls about which Republican fares best against Obama. Come 2012 I think the only number that matters is the percentage unemployed.

** I think concern for the deficit is for most people really a proxy for concern about the economy. This was proven (if any proof were needed) by the fact that not two months after the 2010 elections, Congress voted to increase the deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars. Nobody really cares.

[awesome possum]

Now...given all that...were he actually inclined to jump into the ring...would he not have a realistic chance of coming out on top?

No. And if you do, please pass on over some of what you've been smoking.

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

If I may borrow a phrase from our President, Congress "acted stupidly." My apartment lease has a severability clause. My cell phone agreement has a severability clause. My gym membership agreement has a severability clause. No one in Congress read this bill. That much is plainly clear.

A severability clause may not have saved the law, but there is absolutely no excuse for it not to be in there.

Perhaps they thought that a severability clause would make it more likely for a court to toss out a part of the law, and they didn't want that. So they were engaging in some groupthink, essentially convincing themselves that the courts wouldn't dare throw out the entire law.

What's interesting is that an earlier House version of the the bill, HR 3200, did contain a severability clause.