Ned + ? = Jon Snow

[Faint]

While I'm here, another one of my concerns about this entire subject is, even if Jon is Dany's nephew and this fact is important to the story, how is this even proved? I'd hate to have to search all over these boards for an answer, especially given how thoroughly this topic has been discussed, but is there a general consensus as to how Dany, or anyone else for that matter, could be convinced? Because, from where I'm sitting, Howland Reed is not going to cut it.

[Angalin]

Dany's dragons are drawn to those with Targaryen blood; they behave quite differently around Brown Ben Plumm, I think it is, whose Targaryen ancestor was a few generations back. It's likely they'd take to a half-Targaryen quite readily.

[Horza]

Also, there's the letter Ned may have written in the Black Cells.

[Recently]

The main quote: "Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow's face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own. If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, why did they fill men with such lusts?" brought up by OP doesn't really imply that Jon is his bastard.

Technically Jon is still a bastard if R+L=J since Rhaegar was already married. I think it would be too random to suddenly bring up a new character that happens to me R+L's child if jon isn't it, so either its Jon or there was nothing (maybe miscarriage or something dunno)

[corbon]

While I'm here, another one of my concerns about this entire subject is, even if Jon is Dany's nephew and this fact is important to the story, how is this even proved? I'd hate to have to search all over these boards for an answer, especially given how thoroughly this topic has been discussed, but is there a general consensus as to how Dany, or anyone else for that matter, could be convinced? Because, from where I'm sitting, Howland Reed is not going to cut it.

Surely that is better asked in the R+L=J threads, rather than this one which is explicitly not about R+L=J?

I actually have some answers that would help your last two question, but feel that answering them here would just assisting threadjacking - especially rude after the OP asked others to avoid doing so.

[A Redeemed Hound]

Wouldn't it be really out of character for Ned to make Jon Snow believe he is his father for so long and then just throw out a bombsell telling him that "I'm not your father afterall" in some goofy letter? It's sloppy to me. It's out of character. It's pretty mean. It just makes no sense.

I think the real question is who is Jon's mother? That is more than enough reason for Ned's guilt. Especially if it is Ashara. And he killed (or helped kill) Ashara's brother, a man he truly respected, and told Ashara he would take Jon to keep him safe since Ashara was a Targ loyalist, and he basically said he would not stay with Ashara because he married another, AND all this grief caused Ashara to kill herself.

What more could there be for him to feel so damn guilty?!

A letter telling Jon who his mother is would be pretty heavy and rather life-changing as it is.

Oh, and he made a promise to his dying sister about something. Maybe the secret is the offspring of L+R? Maybe it is her telling Ned she was never kidnapped? Maybe both?

That all seems to fit much better in the story and in line with the characters and how they have been reacting. Just my opinion.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Weren't you saying it had to be Wylla and couldn't be Ashara like 2 posts ago?

I think the real question is who is Jon's mother? That is more than enough reason for Ned's guilt. Especially if it is Ashara. And he killed (or helped kill) Ashara's brother, a man he truly respected, and told Ashara he would take Jon to keep him safe since Ashara was a Targ loyalist, and he basically said he would not stay with Ashara because he married another, AND all this grief caused Ashara to kill herself.

What more could there be for him to feel so damn guilty?!

Even if Jon is not N+A, Ned would still feel super guilty about Ashara for the other reasons you listed. He may have even had an affair with her during the war (I find this likely myself) - this is one explanation for why he can say "I dishonored myself" truthfully even if Jon is not his son. It was a tragic romance whether or not sex is involved - your beloved throws themselves off a cliff after you kill their dear brother in combat and marry another woman? That would be enough for a lifetime of guilt.

Plus of course Ned feels guilty that he is keeping Jon's parentage secret from his wife, and that Jon suffers a bit for it. He'd have that guilt whoever mom and dad are.

[Faint]

Surely that is better asked in the R+L=J threads, rather than this one which is explicitly not about R+L=J?

I actually have some answers that would help your last two question, but feel that answering them here would just assisting threadjacking - especially rude after the OP asked others to avoid doing so.

My mistake. I'm relatively new here and only now noted that there is a sticky thread (is that what you call it?) about the topic on the top of the board. I figured all such threads were just old and not getting posts.

[A Redeemed Hound]

Weren't you saying it had to be Wylla and couldn't be Ashara like 2 posts ago?

Even if Jon is not N+A, Ned would still feel super guilty about Ashara for the other reasons you listed. He may have even had an affair with her during the war (I find this likely myself) - this is one explanation for why he can say "I dishonored myself" truthfully even if Jon is not his son. It was a tragic romance whether or not sex is involved - your beloved throws themselves off a cliff after you kill their dear brother in combat and marry another woman? That would be enough for a lifetime of guilt.

Plus of course Ned feels guilty that he is keeping Jon's parentage secret from his wife, and that Jon suffers a bit for it. He'd have that guilt whoever mom and dad are.

I do agree with what you said as well. Kind of makes me feel really bad for Ned all over again. And poor Jon Snow. Ned should have told Robert to go to hell and even Catelyn should have been told to go to hell as well in certain scenarios. All of the people around him whom he loved so much and dedicated his life to caused him so much guilt and grief. He was loyal to a fault. I feel for Catelyn but I never really liked her as a person. Robert as well. I liked him but he was kind of a jerk to everyone around him. Ned was like his whipping boy.

[Faint]

I do agree with what you sais as well. Kind of makes me feel really bad for Ned all over again. And poor Jon Snow. Ned should have told Robert to go to hell and even Catelyn should have been told to go to hell as well in certain scenarios. All of the people around him whom he loved so much and dedicated his life to caused him so much guilt and grief. He was loyal to a fault. I feel for Catelyn but I never really liked her as a person. Robert as well. I liked him but he was kind of a jerk to everyone around him. Ned was like his whipping boy.

Much of what you say is true but I feel that, from my admittedly limited exposure to these boards, Lysa Tully gets nowhere near enough mention for being the true cause of the Stark's downfall. I even think she should be assigned more responsibility than Littlefinger himself because while he never had particular cause to be loyal to the Starks, Lysa was wife to one of their biggest allies and sister to the Stark's leader. Moreover, while I can't excuse Ned for being so trusting of Littlefinger and conciliatory to Cersei, I have a hard time blaming him or his wife for counting on the fact that Lysa would not be the true traitor in their midst. As a kind of joiner to this, I should mention that her betrayal was one of the truly shocking moments for me in the series; the other stuff I had kind of figured out (although, it's quite possible I was just naive about this point).

[Horza]

I think Lysa gets off because she was a sad, pathetic, broken individual being played like a cherry-red '62 Strat by Littlefinger.

[A Redeemed Hound]

Much of what you say is true but I feel that, from my admittedly limited exposure to these boards, Lysa Tully gets nowhere near enough mention for being the true cause of the Stark's downfall. I even think she should be assigned more responsibility than Littlefinger himself because while he never had particular cause to be loyal to the Starks, Lysa was wife to one of their biggest allies and sister to the Stark's leader. Moreover, while I can't excuse Ned for being so trusting of Littlefinger and conciliatory to Cersei, I have a hard time blaming him or his wife for counting on the fact that Lysa would not be the true traitor in their midst. As a kind of joiner to this, I should mention that her betrayal was one of the truly shocking moments for me in the series; the other stuff I had kind of figured out (although, it's quite possible I was just naive about this point).

Lysa and Littlefinger are the reason for the Stark's demise in the first place. Lysa got what was coming to her. I hope Littlefinger gets even worse. But I have a feeling he is going to survive the series. Still, a nice slow death at the hands of Stoneheart or the jaws of Summer would be great.

[Whatever]

To answer your question: yes. In fact, if it does turn out to be true, I'll always see it as a flaw that nobody had figured it out before, especially someone like Littlefinger. What makes it so ripe for suspicion is that so many people know Ned's character yet they don't question the fact that he has a bastard -- you would think the perceptive would read through the lines. Although, I suppose the possibility that Ashara Dayne is the mother does mitigate this to some degree.

Now, as to my question, I agree that if R + L = J is not true, it won't have consequences in the story because nobody thinks that Jon is a Targaryen in the first place. But that's not really what I'm getting at. My issue is, if the theory isn't true, why did George make such an effort to suggest it so much? Is it meant as a smokescreen for something else?

I don't think this theory was meant to be obvious. I think that years of waiting, internet and our obsessed minds overreached GRRM's expectations :) I mean, if you read all of the four books together, you don't start wondering about Jon's mom

[Faint]

I mean, if you read all of the four books together, you don't start wondering about Jon's mom

I did actually. And, for that matter, it only took the first book. In fact, it only took Chapter 40 of AGoT to get my mind racing on the topic.

[Whatever]

I did actually. And, for that matter, it only took the first book. In fact, it only took Chapter 40 of AGoT to get my mind racing on the topic.

Ok, I didn't explain well. I meant, when you read the book the first time, you actually start wondering about Jon (Bran I or Jon I). Then you want to know the truth (Cat II), but when Ned throw a name (Ned II) you are quite pleased.. in that moment (when i read the book, all together, and i read "wylla" the first time, i downloaded the pdf and started seaching for "wylla" in all of the books :D).

Then you keep feeling something weird about the matter, but you just let it be and enjoy the story... till Ned XV, when he HAS to say jon something. Then you read Bran VII, and you become really suspicious. Then the book is almost over, there is nothing about Jon's bith in acok, and a really interesting arya chapet in asos. You might suspect something, likely something about wylla or ashara, but how many of us actually thought about lyanna and rhaegal? I did it, when i was reading the books for the third time. And it wasn't a real theory, just a simple idea.

The point is, all of the theories are not THAT obviuos. It's just that we are many, and we're smart :)

[Kariggi]

To answer your question: yes. In fact, if it does turn out to be true, I'll always see it as a flaw that nobody had figured it out before, especially someone like Littlefinger. What makes it so ripe for suspicion is that so many people know Ned's character yet they don't question the fact that he has a bastard -- you would think the perceptive would read through the lines. Although, I suppose the possibility that Ashara Dayne is the mother does mitigate this to some degree.

I would put forward that because of his character most individuals (such as littlefinger/robert) would want to embrace and believe in any small character fault which could be associated with this otherwise untouchably honourable man. Why would you want to dispell the single apparent flaw in Ned's character, that would make him...well he's already better than you, well just infuriatingly honourable and good and well we can't have that because we all suffer by comparison. If we believe, he becomes flawed and human like the rest of us, if we don't then we are the ones who have failed because being truly honourable is attainable, and we are weak and disdainable, not just normal like Ned (the Bastard maker) and everyone else.

[A Redeemed Hound]

Also, there's the letter Ned may have written in the Black Cells.

I am not sure but does it seem like Ned was given any real time to write a letter? I can never tell. It seems like it was mentioned but never really requested.

[ishmael]

And back to my main point: no one had more incentive to pry.

I agree that she had the biggest incentive to pry. However, I believe she put two and two together after the confrontation she had with Ned over Ashara's name. Cat is perfectly aware that Ned married her out of duty, not because he loved her. Granted, they were close becuase she was to marry his brother, but I don't think there were any "secret sparks" between them during her betrothing(sp?). She was also aware that Ned had interest in someone prior to Ned's brother's murder (I cannot come up woth his name at the moment). I believe her understanding that he was not in love with her (nor her with him) when they were first married, allowed her to view his fathering a bastard as a non-issue. However, when whispers of Ashara's name started to circulate she was stirred to action, because she realized that Ashara was someone significant to Ned. Ned satifying a basic need with a random woman during the war is on thing, but the possibility that Ned was invovlved with someone he cared about was a game changer that required her to confront him. We all know how that conversation went, and Cat dropped the subject overtly, but that doesn't mean that she didn't attain information about Ashara quietly and eventually found out she had committed suicide. Once she found this information, she realized she had no competition, but had no reason to soil Ashara's name and contest the commonly accepted identity of Jon's mother.

In one of EvilClosetMonkey's early posts, he questions the logistics of how Ned would meet up with Ashara or Wylla. I got the impression the men returning from the war are the ones who start the whispers of Ashara's name as being the most likely candidate for Jon's mother. I can't answer how they got together, but it sure gives the impression the Ned's men had seen Ashara spending time in the camp with him or him going to her.

In regards to the OP, I think 80r hit the nail on the head when he says "It's a cleverly written statement, in that it alludes to one thing...". How you interpret those lines of internal thoughts depends on how you view Jon's parentage. If you feel Jon is Ned's son, it is a great moment of self inspection that completely supports your stance. If you believe Jon has other parents, then you view his thoughts about Rhaegar as confirming Jon as a direct link to R, because looking at baby Jon reminds Ned of Rhaegar for the first time in a long time. When I read this passage originally, I had not even thought of the possiblity of there being any thing significant about Jon's parentage, so I read this internal dialog as being about men in general.

[Lady Blackfish]

Lysa - besides her utter pawn status, she may have truly believed that Littlefinger wanted her to send Catelyn the note in order to warn her to stay away. She says as much when she reacts in surprise to Catelyn's arrival at the Eyrie, and while we don't have enough insight to safely say that was true or not, it's at least in keeping with what we know of her character. She's timid, she likes to run away from problems instead of confront them. Perhaps it's odd that she thought her sister was the same way, but I chalk this up to their 15 year separation + Martin not really handling their relationship with much care. Anyway, it's quite possible that Lysa didn't have an intent to harm, so I would still see Littlefinger as a bit more blameworthy here.

I too started wondering about Jon's mom in my very first read-through of the first book. It seemed quite clear that we were "supposed" to, to me. By the time Ned and Robert were having their discussion out in the snow on the way to King's Landing about that one time Ned Stark forgot his honor, I found myself suspecting that both Wylla and Ashara Dayne were red herrings, but didn't have an actual candidate. Half way through the series I don't see any candidates on the horizon other than those two plus Lyanna, so I'm content to look amongst those three for the answer.

About the believability of Ned's indiscretion, I'd like to point out that not everybody finds it so hard to believe that Ned fathered a bastard. Gendry mentions it to Arya quite casually, so casually that it upsets her. There's this whole issue about what someone wants to believe or not believe. Cersei would love to believe that Ned betrayed his deepest values by fathering a bastard, it makes his righteousness hypocritical. Robert is similar but with the malicious edge replaced by an teasing amicability. Arya is that little girl thinking her father is perfect, not unlike Cersei who finds it insupportable that Tywin would sleep with whores, or even Catelyn wondering about her father and some Tansy woman and finding Hoster suddenly a stranger to her. All I'm trying to say is that I think Martin gives it a measure of subjectivity, the subjectivity of personal interpretation, within the story itself.

I think Cat actually did pry about the situation, we can consider her asking Ned about it to be prying. That wasn't very long into their marriage, and before that she didn't know him very well (they didn't even meet until their wedding, so I don't think they were even friendly during her engagement to Brandon), and her concept of honor probably wasn't as ascetic and hardlined as Ned's to begin with. As she got to know him, I think it did strike her as odd, but that's more and more why she probably concluded that Ned didn't just dick around, but loved the woman fiercely. To have her conclude instead that Ned was not the father at all, well I think that would require her to find it unbelievable that Ned was in love with someone else then, and that he would carry that torch to some extent or other for 15 years, and personally I don't think that is unbelievable. I always felt like Sansa got her romanticism from her father much more than from her mother.

[SFDanny]

I got the impression the men returning from the war are the ones who start the whispers of Ashara's name as being the most likely candidate for Jon's mother. I can't answer how they got together, but it sure gives the impression the Ned's men had seen Ashara spending time in the camp with him or him going to her.

I think your impression of the source of the whispers is absolutely right, but I reach the opposite conclusion about Ned's men seeing Ashara in camp. If they had done so then it would not just be a rumor suggesting Ashara was Jon's mom but rather if his men knew Ashara met up with Ned at the right time it would be an established fact. Instead they talk of a romance started at Harrenhal and Ned returning Dawn to the Daynes. Add to this we know Ned took no troops with him into Dorne and it seems likely Jon shows up with Ned when they return to Storm's End, or wherever they first reunite with the rebel army, and the troops start gossiping about this new child based on sketchy information.