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Egypt and the Middle East Thread 6


zollo

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New York Times is reporting that Ajdabiya has already fallen to government forces, so there's nothing left but open road between them and Benghazi. Apparently it fell incredibly quickly, under an hour in fact. I suppose its possible that its a fake retreat designed to draw the government into an ambush, but that seems unlikely. Especially due to this ominous part of the report:

I think the fight's been knocked out of the rebels. Gaddafi's won.

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New York Times is reporting that Ajdabiya has already fallen to government forces, so there's nothing left but open road between them and Benghazi. Apparently it fell incredibly quickly, under an hour in fact. I suppose its possible that its a fake retreat designed to draw the government into an ambush, but that seems unlikely. Especially due to this ominous part of the report:

I think the fight's been knocked out of the rebels. Gaddafi's won.

ABC (our one) radio had a correspondent in Ajdabiya, he said after an increasingly heavy bombardment they received word they were being outflanked and everyone pulled up and ran. The New Yorker's correspondent paints an even less flattering picture: they weren't digging trenches at any of their last three 'lines of defence', failing Defence 101.

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I'd say the rebels are pretty well fucked at this point. They just don't have the firepower, and the more of them that die, the less will they'll have for the fight.

I guess we'll see if they have something up their sleeves in Benghazi...

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Hope you enjoy your kingdom of ash and bones Gaddafi you've earned it and while I am sure the chickenshit international community will pretend this last month never happened you have shown the world that in spite of your pretensions to the contrary you are just another thug.

I only wish this were some 80s action movie and not a decision dictating the lives of 5 million people. Shame on everyone for not acting sooner. I can only hope that some of the populations in the eastern zones escape before the purges begin.

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Hope you enjoy your kingdom of ash and bones Gaddafi you've earned it and while I am sure the chickenshit international community will pretend this last month never happened you have shown the world that in spite of your pretensions to the contrary you are just another thug.

Anybody who needed the last month to show them that Gaddafi is a thug hasn't been paying attention. He's a despicable piece of shit, and has been proving that for decades.

But realistically, I'm not sure there was much the international community (be that the UN, US, NATO or anyone else) could have done. And the case for doing it to Gaddafi is no better or worse than the case for doing it to Mugabe, Lukashenko, Kim Jong-Il... the list goes on. You can argue there was a chance to get rid of Gaddafi - there still is - but that chance has come at the wrong moment. The diplomatic and military resources required to take advantage it aren't available.

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Security forces with tanks have overrun a square in the centre of Bahrain's capital Manama where anti-government protesters have been camped for weeks.

At least three died after police fired on mainly Shia protesters, reports say. State TV said two police died.

There are reports that troops are shooting at people and threatening doctors at the main Salmaniya hospital.

The country's Sunni rulers have declared martial law and called in Saudi troops to help keep order.

At least two people died in clashes on Tuesday and more than 200 were injured.

or if you prefer your news from the Al-khalifa family:

Rashid’s Equestrian Club continues its intensified preparations for organizing His Majesty’s King Hamad Horse Riding Cup which will take place on Friday the 18th of this month. Various groundwork of creating the race track, technical arrangements and all the facilities required for hosting this big event.
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Update from my friend in Bahrain -

There will likely be a proxy war in Bahrain between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

As for Libya Gaddafi will go back to funding terrorism, and likely try and get nuclear weapons from Pakistan again. With how precarious Pakistan is currently it would be a possibility.

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CNAS is a 'progressive' defence think-tank - they were co-founded by Nate Fick (yes, Generation Kill guy) who was an adviser on the Kerry campaign.

ETA: we need a new thread. Someone make one, I'm going to work.

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But realistically, I'm not sure there was much the international community (be that the UN, US, NATO or anyone else) could have done. And the case for doing it to Gaddafi is no better or worse than the case for doing it to Mugabe, Lukashenko, Kim Jong-Il... the list goes on. You can argue there was a chance to get rid of Gaddafi - there still is - but that chance has come at the wrong moment. The diplomatic and military resources required to take advantage it aren't available.

I don't think it is a question of resources. NATO had more than enough planes in the area to impose a no-fly zone over Libya and/or carry out targeted strikes a-la Kosovo and there was far more consensus on this issue than there was, for example, on the war in Iraq (in this case, both the Arab league and the Western powers agree). The problem is that Obama is unwilling to act without the Security Council and that's a lost cause for at least 95% of such rebellions. For a few minutes last week, I was half-convinced that Sarkozy would act regardless (he was talking pretty tough), but it seems that Western Europe will not fight without US leadership. The NYT article has a point -- perhaps that's for the best.

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