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Egypt and the Middle East Thread 6


zollo

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The wikipedia page on Libyan protests has an interesting map too, although it seems to have been made by a non-journalist 'aggregator' if you will. Its a little bit of a mess, but shows Misrata as liberated. Maybe the situation there is in flux.

Al Jazeera posted this on its blog a hour ago:

According to witnesses, pro-Gaddafi forces took control of Misrata town late on Thursday after evicting forces loyal to leader Muammar Gaddafi from the Mediterranean coastal city, prompting street celebrations

That clarified now? :wideeyed:

But yes, if that map is correct then there is no way Gaddafi is going to survive.

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It's surely only a matter of time until Gaddhafi buggers off to some safehold outside Libya and the people there can begin restructing post-dictatorship. All these defections and the constant fighting is probably going to sap the will of all but his most zealous supporters to kill their own countrymen.

I hope it goes that simply. But I think that Gaddafi and a significant number of his family, tribe and other allies are going to fight to the death. Apart from anything else, they have nowhere else to go. Gaddafi has pissed off most of the other Arab leaders and most of the African leaders. Mugabe still likes him, but taking Gaddafi in would cost him significant political capital and risks sparking further trouble in Zimbabwe. He doesn't like him that much. Who else in the world will take in Gaddafi? Who wants the stink of sheltering that bloody-handed, egotistical, barbaric asshole? Most people only tolerated him because he had power. Without it, there are a handful that might have offered him a home, but most of them now have problems of their own.

So I think this is likely to end with Gaddafi dead. Which I will not weep over, but if it costs others' lives, that's a bad thing.

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So it does seem that Misrata and Zuara are under the control of the rebels after battles. Its Zawiyah where the cusp of the fighting is going on.

BBC is saying that "opposition supporters in Tripoli have said they are planning to protest in Green Square after Friday prayers at noon".

Wow.

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NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said he had called an emergency NATO council meeting for Friday afternoon to discuss the situation in Libya.

"I have convened an emergency meeting in the NATO council this afternoon to consult on this fast-moving situation. So I will return to Brussels in a few hours," he told Reuters during a visit to Budapest on Friday.

"Before I do so, I will meet with EU defence ministers and discuss with them how we in a pragmatic way can help those in need and limit the consequences of these events."

He said priority must be given to evacuation and possibly humanitarian assistance.

http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE71O0D420110225

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Saudi falls into the category of 'problems of their own'. Harbouring Gaddafi is not a good idea for them in the present circumstances, I think.

South Africa, the person who matters is not Mandela but Jacob Zuma - and as Gaddafi once threatened to boycott Zuma's inauguration in a temper tantrum, I'm thinking Zuma is not likely to feel personally hospitable. Like many African leaders, he accommodated Gaddafi so long as he had power, but a Gaddafi scurrying from the fall of his regime is a different beast.

Venezuela is a possibility, I suppose.

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South Africa, the person who matters is not Mandela but Jacob Zuma - and as Gaddafi once threatened to boycott Zuma's inauguration in a temper tantrum, I'm thinking Zuma is not likely to feel personally hospitable. Like many African leaders, he accommodated Gaddafi so long as he had power, but a Gaddafi scurrying from the fall of his regime is a different beast.

Yes, but would Zuma want to shut out an old friend of the ANC's greatest hero?

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Yes, but would Zuma want to shut out an old friend of the ANC's greatest hero?

How important was Gaddafi to ANC? Was it just that he is a personal friend of Nelson Mandela or did he have any real political influence? If not, I can't see them taking him on. The man is a pariah and also now a slaughterer of his own people. Will the South Africans really accept Gaddafi living there? It seems Chavez does what he wants anyway, but does Zuma really have the political capital to take on somebody as embarrassing as Gaddafi?

Didn't it seem like not even Chavez wanted him earlier this week? I could have sworn I read something to that effect.

Which means yes, I agree with the people who think Gaddafi will fight it out on the home turf, much to the pain of the poor Libyans who've done nothing to deserve such a batshit insane leader.

North Korea:

Is the uprising there just a coincidence or are there really links? I thought the people from NK didn't get any information at all from the outside world?

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North Korea:

Is the uprising there just a coincidence or are there really links? I thought the people from NK didn't get any information at all from the outside world?

Hmmm. The only guys getting regular contact the with the world are the upper echelons and the Chongyronand they're not going to lead the riots. There's contact between the Chinese border community and regular people inside but that's less concerned with geopolitics and more with the practicalities of getting the fuck out that hellhole. But it's the hermit kingdom, what do we know?

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Nasty and bloody day in Tripoli it seems. While the pro-Gaddafi forces keep assualting Zawiyah but its nominally under the control of the protestors.

No sign that this is going to end anytime soon. But if Gaddafi has failed to turn the tide so far, you'd imagine it becomes less and less likely that he can.

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... from what I understand, Horza is spot on here. It looks like the protesting is going on around the Chinese border. So, that would explain where they got revolution fever! It's like Bieber Fever, but with more death.

:lol:

I feel tainted and wrong just from having read this paragraph. :P

On a more serious note, why on earth did Gaddafi try to assasinate the Saudi Crown Prince? That just seems totally crazy.

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I know, it's so out of character!

:lol:

Well, more than what you'd come to expect from someone who is already batshit, I guess. Doesn't he have better targets to assasinate? I dunno, GWB? Gordon Brown perhaps? Or Sarkozy!

Of all the possible people to assasinate, attempting to do a Saudi prince in just seems like a not too great choice. Even if you are totally crazy.

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