Former Lord of Winterfell Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but I don't think the western powers can afford to be held responsible for a single civilian casualty due to a mistake. That just makes air to ground strikes of almost any kind enormously risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 I think it's inevitable - not least because Moammar Sheen will be doing his best to make those mistakes likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 So, why did this take so long? I mean good on the U.N. but this should have happened a couple of weeks ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoadm Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but I don't think the western powers can afford to be held responsible for a single civilian casualty due to a mistake. That just makes air to ground strikes of almost any kind enormously risky.Not only that, Khadaffi will make sure to display every single body, prep every weeping mother, and change every dead uniformed soldier into a civilian clothed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danro Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Whatever happened to ninjas and assassinations and all that good stuff? Some cyanide in Gaddafi's nesquik would make all of this so much simpler.First, leaders are usually reluctant to order the assasination of other leaders. Sets a bad precedent.(One of the few that doesn't follow this convention is K himself.)Second, you don't think this have been tried before? K has ruled Libya since 1969, and he has always had powerful enemies. If he wasn't notoriously paranoid and hard to kill he would be gone decades ago.Third, what would happen if K was killed? Would his faction collapse without him, or would power just pass to his heir? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 So, why did this take so long? I mean good on the U.N. but this should have happened a couple of weeks ago...Sounds like they didn't really want to do get involved but at the same time, they didn't want Gaddafi to win. And he was clearly winning. Given he was back to been a pariah, who knows what he would get up to after the war as revenge for the West turning against him.But yes, i'm not sure will Gaddafi lose now. But I really didn't want to see Benghazi been bombed to death. So that should hopefully now be avoided. And that's a win, whatever else may come.Kosovo had an overwhelming majority that wanted independence, the rebels in Libya are 50 : 50 at best.Not sure about that at all. A lot of cities turned against Gaddafi. He kept a lid on things in Tripoli because he was prepared to kill indiscrimatately. While he is not without support, a lot of his apparent support is just propaganda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danro Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 So, why did this take so long? I mean good on the U.N. but this should have happened a couple of weeks ago...This whole "arab spring"-idea is new, threatens the status quo everyones planning has been based on and comes at a really awkward time for the west.The 2 greatest western military powers are heavily comitted elsewhere and both have economic difficulties.Not only did the big players in the west have to muster the will to do this, they also had to somehow get China and Russia to agree not to veto a resolution.China in particular is understandably reluctant to support foreign intervention in a popular uprising demanding democracy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman of the North Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 The Norwegian government have stated that we'll participate in the action. Well, if Gadaffi isn't scared shitless by the prospect of an old Norwegian F-16 flying down to Malta, I don't know what will scare him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 All the coastal cities revolted bar Sirte, which is his clan's heartland. The extended clan, his loyal troops and mercenaries (there, I said it :D ) stuck by and crushed the revolt in the West with heavy bloodshed. Haven't heard much out of the Fezzan but basically in the first week he looked gone for all money and has only clawed back with obscene brutality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljkeane Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 China in particular is understandably reluctant to support foreign intervention in a popular uprising demanding democracy...I suspect China's main interest in Libya is ensuring that they have reliable access to it's oil supply. Gaddafi spending all this time convincing the world that he's a complete nutjob probably didn't help his cause with the Chinese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 The Norwegian government have stated that we'll participate in the action. Well, if Gadaffi isn't scared shitless by the prospect of an old Norwegian F-16 flying down to Malta, I don't know what will scare him.Eh, still newer than his single remaining Mirage F1 and MiG-23s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galactus Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 So, why did this take so long? I mean good on the U.N. but this should have happened a couple of weeks ago...Essentially, they didn't want to intervene in case the rebels would win on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted March 18, 2011 Author Share Posted March 18, 2011 Basically from Feb 17 to about the beginning of March it looked like the violence wasn't enough to quell the uprising and Tripoli was going to fall. Then the regime rallied and began to push the rebels back - only then did talk about NFZs start and it was only in the last week or so that the Opposition started to ask for Western direct assistance, for the very good reasons that they didn't want Gaddafi to paint them as puppets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteHaven Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I know that I am going to be eaten alive for this post, but fuck it, I am so happy Merkel does not want to start throwing bombs. She has different reasons then I do, but whatever. Some maniac somewhere in the Ivory Coast is killing his citizens, too. Why don't we interfere, there? It's not like Gaddafi is the only asshole on our planet. Oh wait, I smell oil.But, yeah, no matter what, we will peace and prosperity...with our bombs. Fuck yeah!OT:The mobile version of this board sucks, big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Some maniac somewhere in the Ivory Coast is killing his citizens, too. Why don't we interfere, there? It's not like Gaddafi is the only asshole on our planet.So the argument is because we are letting innocent people die in the Ivory Coast, we should let even more innocent people die in Libya.That'll teach us! Edited to add: And i'm still amazed that Gaddafi didn't make some effort to keep China or Russia on side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Well, that didn't take long and surprisingly, didn't even require actual military action: Libya has announced a cease-fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman of the North Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Because Gaddafi was our ally up until a few weeks ago. Black gold, baby.Pod,Gaddafi obviously has something that Cote DIvoire does not.You really believe that oil has anything to do with this Coco?Libya is right at the doorstep of Europe, thus garner far more attention than some backwater on the wrong African coastline. Cooperation with North African countries is necessary to stem the flow of African immigration to Europe. That's far more important than a few gallons of oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman of the North Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 The primary reason? Well, probably not. The immigration point is well taken, though I think Egypt has more to worry about there.I wasn't thinking about people fleeing Libya due to the unrest, that's a temporary issue, but those using Libya as a springboard to get to Europe. Without Libyan assistance, maintaining "the integrity of the southern EU border" will be far more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Former Lord of Winterfell Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Well, that didn't take long and surprisingly, didn't even require actual military action: Libya has announced a cease-fire.And why not? A ceasefire after you've essentially won is a good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Former Lord of Winterfell Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Because Gaddafi was our ally up until a few weeks ago. Black gold, baby.Pod,Gaddafi obviously has something that Cote DIvoire does not.I think that's a bit too cynical. Libya is a part of the Mediterranean world in a way that the Ivory Coast clearly isn't. Geographically and topologically, it also is a much better candidate for effective intervention limited to air power only, and is much closer to air and naval bases of the powers capable of enforcing it. A no fly zone over Ivory Coast, even if it was possible to get the assets there and enforce it, would be pretty close to worthless. Over Libya, it could have made a great deal of difference if it had been imposed in a timely manner.I don't think it's unfair to consider issus of practicality in decided whether or not intervention is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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