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ADWD Official Release Date Thread #2


Werthead

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Picking up where the last one left off, GRRM has confirmed that ADWD is now past 1,600 manuscript pages in length, making it significantly longer than A Storm of Swords (1,520 MS pages or thereabouts). He still has some more work to do, but before panic erupts he can also 'hear the biplanes', a reference to the end of King Kong where the giant ape is slain atop the Empire State Building by biplanes (he's been referring to ADWD as 'Kong' for some time now).

I've heard on the wire that GRRM can deliver the book as late as early May and the book will still hit the shelves on 12 July as previously promised, so he still has more than a month to finish the book before a change of date needs to be seriously discussed.

Before these points are raised again:

1. The book is well over 95% complete. The work remaining to be done on the novel is minor, at least compared to what has come before.

2. GRRM does not appear to be writing new material from scratch, instead revising and finalising material that has previously been written in drafts of varying states of completeness.

3. The 95%+ of the material that is already complete has been not only edited, but also typeset. The new maps and appendices are also apparently complete at this time.

4. The ebook comes out on the same day as the physical book.

5. Roy Dotrice is reading the audiobook. Its release date is not yet known.

6. At the moment, the book will not be split in hardcover. However, the UK paperback will definitely be in two volumes. Given the size of the book, it is possible the US paperback will also be split.

7. The book catches up with the timeline of AFFC around the 50% mark. The rest of the book takes place after AFFC and AFFC characters and storylines will reappear.

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7. The book catches up with the timeline of AFFC around the 50% mark. The rest of the book takes place after AFFC and AFFC characters and storylines will reappear.

Wow. Maybe I haven't been paying attention, but I was thinking that ADWD was mostly catching up to AFFC. To have 800 or so manuscript pages of "new" time is fantastic.

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Picking up where the last one left off, GRRM has confirmed that ADWD is now past 1,600 manuscript pages in length, making it significantly longer than A Storm of Swords (1,520 MS pages or thereabouts). He still has some more work to do, but before panic erupts he can also 'hear the biplanes', a reference to the end of King Kong where the giant ape is slain atop the Empire State Building by biplanes (he's been referring to ADWD as 'Kong' for some time now).

I've heard on the wire that GRRM can deliver the book as late as early May and the book will still hit the shelves on 12 July as previously promised, so he still has more than a month to finish the book before a change of date needs to be seriously discussed.

Before these points are raised again:

1. The book is well over 95% complete. The work remaining to be done on the novel is minor, at least compared to what has come before.

2. GRRM does not appear to be writing new material from scratch, instead revising and finalising material that has previously been written in drafts of varying states of completeness.

3. The 95%+ of the material that is already complete has been not only edited, but also typeset. The new maps and appendices are also apparently complete at this time.

4. The ebook comes out on the same day as the physical book.

5. Roy Dotrice is reading the audiobook. Its release date is not yet known.

6. At the moment, the book will not be split in hardcover. However, the UK paperback will definitely be in two volumes. Given the size of the book, it is possible the US paperback will also be split.

7. The book catches up with the timeline of AFFC around the 50% mark. The rest of the book takes place after AFFC and AFFC characters and storylines will reappear.

Wert, just as a means of comparison, how much longer will it be than Wise Man's Fear or A Way of Kings?

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At Amazon.com, Rothfuss and Sanderson have an interview up where they discuss word counts. Sanderson says the final of AWoK is 386,470 words and Rothfuss says WMF was about 395,000 words.

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At Amazon.com, Rothfuss and Sanderson have an interview up where they discuss word counts. Sanderson says the final of AWoK is 386,470 words and Rothfuss says WMF was about 395,000 words.

And 1600 MS pages will be how many words/pages?

Actually two/three more chapters are still left, so it's more likely to come to 1620-1640 MS pages right?

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July 12th = pipe dream. :thumbsdown:

It is all but done. If we do not have it on July 12th we will have it shortly afterwards.

I am aware people have had their hopes up before but before those were just that: hopes. But the fact is, it is all but finished now. That is not some optimistic hope but a fact. So relax.

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I'd estimate 50-60,000 words more than the Rothfuss or Sanderson right now, probably more once the book is done.

July 12th = pipe dream.

As mentioned above, I've been told that Bantam and Voyager can still hit the 12 July date if the final manuscript is handed in as late as early May. That gives Martin a reasonable amount of lead-time from now to then (potentially as much as 6-7 weeks from now). This appears to be due to a lack of other 'Triple A' releases at either publisher in the same timeframe. If we were closer to the end of the year, for example, it's highly improbable that they could manage a 2-month turnaround.

It is slighlty confusing that we were down to 1-2 chapters a couple of weeks back and we've had 2 chapters completed with still more to come. I assume GRRM has broken down those chapters into smaller ones for some reason.

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It is all but done. If we do not have it on July 12th we will have it shortly afterwards.

I am aware people have had their hopes up before but before those were just that: hopes. But the fact is, it is all but finished now. That is not some optimistic hope but a fact. So relax.

All but done? GRRM has written several more chapters since his announcement and just said he has more chapters to come. I cannot wait for this to come out but until he is actually done, anything can happen. Like another knot. A new chapter that forces him to change a finished chapter. Etc. Etc. I don't think I am acting too rash on this one. When he is done, I will cartwheel around my house in my best suit. Until then I remain a skeptic.

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All but done? GRRM has written several more chapters since his announcement and just said he has more chapters to come. I cannot wait for this to come out but until he is actually done, anything can happen. Like another knot. A new chapter that forces him to change a finished chapter. Etc. Etc. I don't think I am acting too rash on this one. When he is done, I will cartwheel around my house in my best suit. Until then I remain a skeptic.

That is your right of course. But I think it is pure fantasy GRRM will miss this deadline...and even if he does it will only delay the release a short time. The date is set, the publisher and everybody else is commmitted and the stakes are high enough it would just be unprofessional to miss it and this is still a business. Besides he has never, to my knowledged, missed a deadline like this in the past.

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All but done? GRRM has written several more chapters since his announcement and just said he has more chapters to come. I cannot wait for this to come out but until he is actually done, anything can happen. Like another knot. A new chapter that forces him to change a finished chapter. Etc. Etc. I don't think I am acting too rash on this one. When he is done, I will cartwheel around my house in my best suit. Until then I remain a skeptic.

No, no. You remain a cynic. A sceptic would be cautiously pessimistic: you're being reflexively dismissive. Two different things.

Happy to help. :)

Just to add some substance, the prospects of another knot coming up are so remote as to be not worth consideration. This is cleaning-up work. To suddenly discover a major plot problem now would require that GRRM had no idea of how the plot of ADWD worked - even after 1600 MS pages.

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1600 MS would be ~450k words by my count.

An average Word page written in Calibri size 11 is 400-500 words.

Being this a novel (so sometimes shorter lines due to dialogues) and probably is double-spaced I think we might have like 200-300 words/page that makes the total word count between 320,000 and 480,000.

I think a realistic estimate will be between 350k and 400k (also considering the word lenght of previous ASOIAF novels)

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is everyone forgetting GRRM's website said "no updates until further notice" because he has missed deadlines before?

therefore it's not at all unreasonable to think he will do so again.

that being said, i do hope he will keep this date and we will all enjoy the next part of the story mid-july.

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7. The book catches up with the timeline of AFFC around the 50% mark. The rest of the book takes place after AFFC and AFFC characters and storylines will reappear.

It catches up with Feast around the 50% mark? Wow. I thought it was the 2/3rds mark (which I already thought was a great achievement).

However, while I'm delighted Dance will surpass Storm in length, I'm getting a tad worried about the book in a physical sense. Just how many pages can a hardcover novel have before its binding becomes problematic?

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He really hasn't had significant publication date deadlines, at all, at any time when writing ADwD. You can't say Amazon put up a date and call that a deadline -- that has nothing to do with GRRM and very little to do with his editor.

As George notes, July 12 is an actual, genuine deadline. One he's pretty confident in, and doubtless for very good reason. I wouldn't worry.

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I think a realistic estimate will be between 350k and 400k (also considering the word lenght of previous ASOIAF novels)

Considering that ASoS is around 420.000 words with 1521 manuscript pages, I think it's far more reasonably that ADwD will be around 430.000 or more words at the moment. It might be even more when you consider the fact that the lenght of the chapters has been steadily growing since Book 1.

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No, no. You remain a cynic. A sceptic (sic) would be cautiously pessimistic: you're being reflexively dismissive. Two different things.

Happy to help

Nah, that didn't sound condescending at all!

Look, I don't mind sticking up for Martin, the guy who gave us all these wonderful books and a Feast for Crows, but at the same time, don't denigrate a fellow boarder merely because he's- perish the thought -pessimistic or- nay - even cynical about this publication date. To say that Martin has engendered in his readers a sense of doubt when it comes to any pronouncements of publication dates would be a wonderful understatement. Remember this is the man who stated in AFFC that Dance of Dragons would "be along next year." That was in 2005.

For me, I think its perfectly acceptable to by "cynical" and retain one's skeptical street cred. For me, I am squarely in the "cautiously pessimistic" department. I hate to be a doubting Thomas on this one, but since 2001, I don't believe much of anything that anyone tells me on the books unless or until Martin turns a book over to his publishers. Remember, that when Legends II came out it stated that AFFC would come out in 2003. They were off by two years.

Now, I will readily admit that there are a number of factors that make me more hopeful. First and foremost, Martin has placed a release date without any qualifiers (In AFFC he stated that the book would come out next year, but then was quick to point out- even parenthetically -"I devoutly hope"). Martin NEVER states something so absolute unless he thinks he can make good. You cannot take that away from him. Also, the publishers appear to be already ... publishing. This is rare (or so I am told) to do when the book is still in the process of being written. Finally, Martin does not appear to be writing anything brand new or from scratch. Instead, he appears to be finalizing material that is already in, at least, a prior written form.

And, much like my atheism, I WANT to believe. Evidence shmevidence. If this guy says the book is going to be released on July 12, I WANT him to be right. Sure he's been wrong before, but much like an abused spouse... this time it will be different! Its just so hard to try to hold nay bad feelings towards Martin when he has brought such a classic series to life and for my benefit. So, yeah, while I can be skeptical and coldly logical... there is a large part of me that just wants to be giddy like a school-girl and get my ham-hands on that book.

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