A Clash of Kings Spoilers: The Starks and the War

[Young Wolf's Vanguard]

@zmflavius

@Noroldis

i was joking, of course i know half of North worships Seven, and Greatjon is unique by all means, i wrote this just to laugh a little bit, i was not expecting to be thoroughly analyzed as if i wrote "Crime and Punishment"

[Maia]

The point is, once he captures Tywin

Woa, woa! IMHO, Robb's plan to fight Tywin in the Westerlands with only his cavalry was incredibly dubious, since Tywin would have known the terrain better and the populace would have been loyal to him. Barring gross incompetence on Tywin's part, the best Robb could hope for was to lure Tywin away from KL and escape with his forces relatively intact. And even that would have required quite a bit of luck.

and makes peace with the Iron Throne it'd be trivial to convince the Lords of the Vale to follow him

Why would the Iron Throne (i.e. Stannis or Renly) make peace with Robb and why would the Vale want to follow him? It is more prestigious and profitable for them to remain vassals of the Iron Throne.

In GOT it's mentioned that he sent most of his cavalry with Jaime.

On the contrary, Jaime had almost all of his cavalry with him in the Whispering Wood (2 or 3K, IIRC). And he was outnumbered against Robb's cavalry (northern + Frey). Tywin had more cavalry at Harrenhal than Robb had with him during his raid on the Westerlands.

Robb doesn't need to fight an open battle with Tywin, he needs to fight a guerilla war.

On an enemy turf, where the populace would have fought and spied against him? Rather implausible, don't you think? Also, Tywin's infantry was the best trained by 7 Kingdoms standards. And, what makes you think that Robb had a lot of light cavalry? He didn't. Westerosi light cavalry are undisciplined freeriders in any case - not somebody one could depend on.

If Edmure followed Tywin with his smaller army, Tywin could just turn and defeat him. Nor did Robb hold the Golden Tooth - he sneaked around it thanks to Grey Wind, remember? That's what made his victory at Oxcross possible - that the garrison of the Golden Tooth had no clue and couldn't warn the Westlands.

[Noroldis]

Nukelavee:

The major difference in the books between a knight of the West, and a bannerman of the north? The west (and most of the south) go for elaborate fancy pretty armour. Did all those ruby's on a certain dragon's armour make it better armour? Did that knight of the Vale's pretty armour make much of a differnce to Bronn?

Fancily decorated armor is for lords and knights from noble families. I'd be willing to bet that the majority of the heavy cavalry among Tywin's army was outfitted with plain armor. And Bronn is, as Cersei noted, a battle-hardened killer with the ability to perceive the weaknesses of the knightly fighting style, and the skill to exploit those weaknesses. I very much doubt that peasant levies can match him on either count. Also, massed battle is quite different from a one-on-one duel.

The biggest part of any of these armies is the infantry, which is made of up levies from basically peasants - Who do you think HAS to spend more money on getting some basic gear for those levies, the Lannisters who are grabbing huge numbers of men from a "peaceful" province, or the North, where virtually every hut has a spear or sword to deal with wilding's and the like, or bows for hunting and trapping, compared to farmers and miners in teh West?

Basically - Lannister gold does not automatically mean Lannister forces are better equipped. The knight's have prettier armour, they have more foot...but pretty gold armour isn't better than plain, and arming 20,000 farmers and miners takes more money than fielding 10k hunters.

Robb himself states to Catelyn that Tywin has "By all reports, he has more men than I do, and a lot more armored horse." Which, given that heavy cavalry is the most expensive type of medieval troops to outfit and maintain in large numbers, means that Tywin's forces are indeed better equipped. What more do you want?

Plus, much of the Lannister gold goes directly to details, luxuries, bribes and gifts - not weapons and armour.

Quote, please. And I have to mention I find it hard to believe that a battle commander as seasoned as Tywin would put more emphasis on luxuries, bribes and gifts than on weapons and armor.

As for trade - Lannisport is a VERY long distance from foriegn trade - traders from the Free Cities must navigate around the entire continent. It's definately worth the trip for luxuries, but bulk goods, the majority of trade, will arrive and ship from the other coast...and NOTHING comes from the west across the Sunset Sea.

Whatever the limitations/hindrances caused by Lannisport's geographical location, the fact is that the Lannisters and their bannermen can afford to equip their forces very well man-for-man, perhaps best of all the great houses.

[seppuku]

They never stood a chance.

Please.

Had the Wedding not happened, at the very least you're looking at the Status Quo' which is a victory in itself since he would be still be King of all the North and would still control White Harbor. An invasion of the North is not feasible. And downright suicide with Winter on the horizon.

While the Tyrells declared for Jofferey, that doesn't mean they are going to invade the North for him. Not only would that be ridiculous, but the Tyrells obviously had alterior motives and realized Joff was an abomination that needed to be removed from the very get go.

[Nukelavee]

Noroldis - I think you misunderstood the comparison i was making. I'm saying in quality of gear, there wouldn't be near as big a gap between a northern lancer, and a southern.

I'm not saying northern foot is better than southern horse, I'm saying a northern levy will have more men, proportionally, with experience than the southern levy's.

I agree - Lannister can equip more men - but equipping 40,000 foot takes way more gold than equipping 10,000, most of whom already have basic weapons.

Brilliant or not, Tywin DOES spend a ton of gold on pretty things - Read the description of his armour, and the luxuries the southern forces bring with them om campaign.

BTW - teh bribes and gifts are a HUGE part of Lannister strategies - Tywin is actually smart to spend gold rather than men to keep people on his side or at least on the sidelines.

I totally agree that wealth and population gave Tywin a huge advantage, and that Robb could only have won a limited war; I'm just saying that it wasn't the quality of the forces, it was the quantity that decided things.

That, and being far too trapped by the need for the Freys both for men, and to maintain a connection between the North and teh Riverlands.

[Noroldis]

Nukelavee:

I think you misunderstood the comparison i was making. I'm saying in quality of gear, there wouldn't be near as big a gap between a northern lancer, and a southern.

I apologize for misinterpreting your post, then.

I'm not saying northern foot is better than southern horse, I'm saying a northern levy will have more men, proportionally, with experience than the southern levy's.

I'm not so sure about that. Given that Tywin's army had a larger number of armored cavalry (who presumably also received training at riding and fighting in addition to mount, armor and weapons) along with freeriders and sellswords (who do need some skill at arms just to survive), it could be that quality-wise the two hosts were about even.

Brilliant or not, Tywin DOES spend a ton of gold on pretty things - Read the description of his armour, and the luxuries the southern forces bring with them om campaign.

Tywin is the wealthiest lord in the Seven Kingdoms. He can afford a very pretty armor (and besides, I'd think that Loras Tyrell's jousting armor with all its sapphires cost more than Tywin's enamelled suit and its few rubies) without compromising the availability of decent weapons and armor for the majority of his common soldiers. Also, I can't recall what unnecessary luxuries Tywin's host carried with it. Could you describe them for me? IMO, it was Renly who was big on superfluous extravagance when campaigning.

BTW - teh bribes and gifts are a HUGE part of Lannister strategies - Tywin is actually smart to spend gold rather than men to keep people on his side or at least on the sidelines.

If you mean political strategies rather than military ones, then I agree, bribes and gifts did play a large part in the Lannisters' success. However, I'll point out that the most significant and influential of those prizes weren't monetary in nature. The Tyrell alliance was secured by the marriage offer of Joffrey for Margaery, the Dornish alliance by the offer of Myrcella for Trystane (as well as offering the killer of Elia and her children). Gold did play a part for the Westerlings/Spicers, true, but they, like the Freys and Roose Bolton, were likely even more interested in getting royal pardons once it became clear which side was going to win the war.

All in all, I don't think thatthe Lannisters' monetary bribes and gifts throughout the War of the Five Kings were as big a drain on their resources as you make them sound – especially since, IIRC, the bribes meant for the Reach's lords when Littlefinger led a delegation to Bitterbridge were taken from the royal treasury, not from the Lannisters' own vaults.

I totally agree that wealth and population gave Tywin a huge advantage, and that Robb could only have won a limited war; I'm just saying that it wasn't the quality of the forces, it was the quantity that decided things.

Actually, I think that the personal deeds and decisions of the northern commanders (notably Robb failing to tell Edmure exactly what he wanted him to do and Roose treacherously sending 4,000 men to their doom to Duskendale) played an even larger part in the North's defeat than troop quantity or quality. :)

[Talleyrand]

I'm not so sure about that. Given that Tywin's army had a larger number of armored cavalry (who presumably also received training at riding and fighting in addition to mount, armor and weapons) along with freeriders and sellswords (who do need some skill at arms just to survive), it could be that quality-wise the two hosts were about even.

Well at Duskendale Helman Tallhart's forces were heavily outnumbered by Randyll and Gregor's southerners but apparently Randyll still had very high losses

[Chirios]

Woa, woa! IMHO, Robb's plan to fight Tywin in the Westerlands with only his cavalry was incredibly dubious, since Tywin would have known the terrain better and the populace would have been loyal to him.

Hence why Robb burns all the populace out and kills the ones who fight against him. Scorched Earth tactics. Not what Robb would've done, but that's not the point of the thread.

Barring gross incompetence on Tywin's part, the best Robb could hope for was to lure Tywin away from KL and escape with his forces relatively intact.

Robb lures Tywin away from KL. Tywin passes Riverrun and reaches the Westerlands to find them completely burned and destroyed. The River Lords engage in hit and run attacks and make sure he can't get any supplies from outside. Soon enough Tywin's men run out of food, while Robb can feed himself on loot from the south.

And even that would have required quite a bit of luck. Why would the Iron Throne (i.e. Stannis or Renly) make peace with Robb and why would the Vale want to follow him? It is more prestigious and profitable for them to remain vassals of the Iron Throne.

The Iron Throne would make peace because Robb would give up the King in the North bollucks. Again, not what Robb would have done, but what he should have done. And if Robb kneels to the Iron Throne, the both of them can convince the lords of the Vale to ignore Lysa.

On the contrary, Jaime had almost all of his cavalry with him in the Whispering Wood (2 or 3K, IIRC). And he was outnumbered against Robb's cavalry (northern + Frey). Tywin had more cavalry at Harrenhal than Robb had with him during his raid on the Westerlands.

No, Tywin sent most of his cavalry with Robb. Once Robb beat Jaime he and Tywin had the same numbers of cavalry. But Tywin's were better equipped.

On an enemy turf, where the populace would have fought and spied against him? Rather implausible, don't you think? Also, Tywin's infantry was the best trained by 7 Kingdoms standards.

Robb marches through the westerlands, burning and looting as he goes. The populace will find it hard to fight against trained warriors. Tywin follows Robb and has to march his forces through lands that have been completely scorched. Soon enough they starve.

And, what makes you think that Robb had a lot of light cavalry? He didn't. Westerosi light cavalry are undisciplined freeriders in any case - not somebody one could depend on.If Edmure followed Tywin with his smaller army, Tywin could just turn and defeat him. Nor did Robb hold the Golden Tooth - he sneaked around it thanks to Grey Wind, remember? That's what made his victory at Oxcross possible - that the garrison of the Golden Tooth had no clue and couldn't warn the Westlands.

Robb's forces were lighter equipped, so they can move faster. Robb has to stay close enough to Tywin that if Tywin turns around Robb can strike him in the rear, Edmure has to stay close enough that if Tywin marches on Robb in earnest Edmure can strike him in the rear.

[Noroldis]

Lothbrok:

Well at Duskendale Helman Tallhart's forces were heavily outnumbered by Randyll and Gregor's southerners but apparently Randyll still had very high losses

IIRC, we don't have numbers stating by how much the northmen were outnumbered by Randyll's force. Also, I believe Gregor's force was used to block the northmen's retreat after they were defeated, not for the battle itself. That the northmen managed to inflict high casualties upon a force from the Reach led by a reputed battle commander speaks well of their ability, but they did lose in the end, and in any case their performance isn't definitive proof of their qualitative superiority over Tywin's westerners.

Chirios:

No, Tywin sent most of his cavalry with Robb. Once Robb beat Jaime he and Tywin had the same numbers of cavalry.

Here's the description of Tywin's army from Tyrion's POV:

In the dawn light, the army of Lord Tywin Lannister unfolded like an iron rose, thorns gleaming.

His uncle would lead the center. Ser Kevan had raised his standards above the kingsroad. Quivers hanging from their belts, the foot archers arrayed themselves into three long lines, to east and west of the road, and stood calmly stringing their bows. Between them, pikemen formed squares; behind were rank on rank of men-at-arms with spear and sword and axe. Three hundred heavy horse surrounded Ser Kevan and the lords bannermen, Lydden, and Serrett with all their sworn retainers.

The right wing was all cavalry, some four thousand men, heavy with the weight of their armor. More than three quarters of the knights were there, massed together like a great steel fist. Ser Addam Marbrand had the command. Tyrion saw his banner unfurl as his standard-bearer shook it out; a burning tree, orange and smoke. Behind him flew Ser Flement's purple unicorn, the the brindled board of Crakehall, the bantam rooster of Swyft, and more.

His lord father took his place on the hill where he had slept. Around him, the reserve assembled; a huge force, half mounted and half foot, five thousand strong. Lord Tywin almost always chose to command the reserve; he would take the high ground and watch the battle unfold below, committing his forces when and where they were needed most.

[…]

This wing [the left one] too was all cavalry, but where the right was a mailed fist of knights and heavy lancers, the vanguard was made up of the sweepings of the west: mounted archers in leather jerkins, a swarming mass of undisciplined freeriders and sellwords, fieldhands on plow horses armed with scythes and their fathers' rusted swords, half-trained boys from the stews of Lannisport… and Tyrion with his mountain clansmen.

Even if Tywin did assign some of his cavalry to help form Jaime's host, he obviously still had plenty of it, especially heavy cavalry, when he fought Roose Bolton's force near the Green Fork. So I'd like to know exactly where it is mentioned that Tywin sent most of his cavalry off with Jaime.