Jump to content

A Clash of Kings Spoilers: The Starks and the War


Chirios

Recommended Posts

After the Tyrells declared for Joffrey, Joffrey's cause was as good as won, regardless of the Vale. Because even if the Greyjoys had remained a non-entity, and Robb had not married Jeyne Westerling, and even if Bolton remained loyal, the Redwyne fleet would have opened the North to attack, and the Tyrell strength, which by itself is already nearly equal to the rest of the Seven Kingdoms, would have been more than enough to pummel the North. It would be like a siege of Dragonstone situation, except because the entire north is being warred over, slightly bloodier.

The Tyrell have a massive army but that didn't help Aerys...

Robb was forced to defend the Riverlands after they crowned him, if he was crowned by the northern lords alone he could have fell back to Moat Callin and hold off any chance to take him down.

Robb should've had three of the seven major houses under his command. Granted the Riverlands and the Vale seem like pretty weak regions

The Riverlands is not a weak region it's just very divided and hard to defend. even before Robb got south because of Edmure's and Tywin tactics he was greatly damaged. The riverlands could marshal a fair amount of swords (25K is my top estimate)

Neither is the vale a weak region, Robb mentions twice that the vale troops could tip the balance in the war. in AFFC LF reckons the lords Royce gathered could marshal 20K men add the men brought from Gulltown (which is a major city in Westeros) and other strong lords of the vale with the Arryns own men...the vale could muster a pretty large force

and with the vale and the north pretty much sealed from an attack on their home soil...the war could have looked differently

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Put me in the camp that thinks they never stood a chance. I've always been of the view that as soon as they captured Jaime and then smashed the Lannister host at Riverrun, they should have made peace with the Lannisters. Robb should have traded Jaime for Sansa, gotten married to either Cersei or Myrcella, and that should have been the end of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Tyrell have a massive army but that didn't help Aerys...

But Aerys only had the armies of the Reach supporting him, along with some soldiers from the Crownlands and a small contingent of Dornish troops. And their opponents had the combined might of four of the Seven Kingdoms behind them, with the Lannisters coming in later. That's very different from Robb's situation, he only had forces from the North and the Riverlands against the combined might of Casterly Rock and Highgarden.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hnv has a very valid point - The riverlands are likely the worst kingdon, geography wise, to try and base a campaign out of.

In order to say Robb never had a chance, you really need to consider what Robb's goals were, or should have been, and go from there.

I think his chances were very good for success (success defined as getting his family back, and keeping the North), so good on paper, that GRRM had to hamstring him with a series of problems no other contender/faction had to face.

Personally, the more I look at this, the more I think his biggest problem for the entire campaign was the state of Lord Hoster. Had the man even been as healthy as Doran Martell, and not out of his head on drugs and pain, Robb would have had a true peer in power, better council, and a far more stable and controlable force.

Hoster able to actually head up the Tully banners would have had firmer control over the Freys, and a certain influence on the Vale forces.

oh, and just because - Roose Bolton. I really don't care who plays him in the series...I keep seeing him as looking, facialy and buildwise, like Rob Halford, circa the mid 80's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But Aerys only had the armies of the Reach supporting him, along with some soldiers from the Crownlands and a small contingent of Dornish troops. And their opponents had the combined might of four of the Seven Kingdoms behind them, with the Lannisters coming in later. That's very different from Robb's situation, he only had forces from the North and the Riverlands against the combined might of Casterly Rock and Highgarden.

That is inaccurate, you look at war like a linear function which something it's not.

Robert side consisted of the northerners (who were probably the only host intact for warfare following their stark general but like TWO5K had to be raised very quickly so wasn't on it's full cadre), the vale forces were bled at Gulltown and bled harder during the early phases of the war before Ned got down and the river alliance was secured. the stormlanders host probably never even reached the riverlands. Robert went to storm's end to call his banners, he had under lords who tried to raise for Aerys he bled to defeat and bled them out (their numbers were up to a third of the stormlands entire pool of forces, and the stormlands isn't described as very populated, they have strong keeps but not so much of a mobile land army from my perspective)afterwards he was defeated in Ashford and he broke badly otherwise he wouldn't have fled wounded to stony sept and the battle of the bells (where they searched for him house to house...you don't manhunt someone who has a army behind him). this leads me to believe the number of men who fought under Robert's banner in the rebellion from the stormlands was either non existent or very very small.

last of all we have the riverlands with it's complex politics and the fact that we know a healthy amount of houses actually went with the Targs.

Rhaegar had 40K men with him in the trident thats a really large host probably on par with the entire robert force after all I described, and the interesting point for me is that off Rhaegar host we don't hear of knights of the reach fighting in. weird considering the tyrells and the dornish were all Aerys had left. this lead me to believe Rhaegar's host was made up mainly off Crownlanders, Kinglanders, Royalist Riverlords, Sellswords\Hedge Knights\Free Riders, Royalist Stormlanders and the Dorinsh host (numbered at 10K-15K if I remember correctly) Meaning Mace Tyrell had his huge own host around Strom's End but that didn't help Aerys much...

Robb was in a good shape, Jaime had 15K with him but they were smashed and scattered, Tywin had 20K bled lightly. Robb had 4-5K cavalry with him with Edmure being able to raise 12K of his own along with Roose Bolton 15K (prior to the battle with tywins host probably around 10-13K afterwards) Robb in my eyes could have crossed the river join up with Bolton's army and go on a showdown against Tywin. but he didn't because the riverlands were so divided and in a mess and ran by clumsy Edmure. Because Robb himself had probably was uncertian of their ability to take down Tywin or because no one really knew what they wanted. or on top of it all because GRRM wanted a Stark downfall and it is a novel so not always rational in it's way

but what if the Vale joined up with Robb that's a sweet dream. and I for one think Robb could have won or at least reach some agreement which ok by their side

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is inaccurate, you look at war like a linear function which something it's not.

Robert side consisted of the northerners (who were probably the only host intact for warfare following their stark general but like TWO5K had to be raised very quickly so wasn't on it's full cadre), the vale forces were bled at Gulltown and bled harder during the early phases of the war before Ned got down and the river alliance was secured. the stormlanders host probably never even reached the riverlands. Robert went to storm's end to call his banners, he had under lords who tried to raise for Aerys he bled to defeat and bled them out (their numbers were up to a third of the stormlands entire pool of forces, and the stormlands isn't described as very populated, they have strong keeps but not so much of a mobile land army from my perspective)afterwards he was defeated in Ashford and he broke badly otherwise he wouldn't have fled wounded to stony sept and the battle of the bells (where they searched for him house to house...you don't manhunt someone who has a army behind him). this leads me to believe the number of men who fought under Robert's banner in the rebellion from the stormlands was either non existent or very very small.

last of all we have the riverlands with it's complex politics and the fact that we know a healthy amount of houses actually went with the Targs.

Rhaegar had 40K men with him in the trident thats a really large host probably on par with the entire robert force after all I described, and the interesting point for me is that off Rhaegar host we don't hear of knights of the reach fighting in. weird considering the tyrells and the dornish were all Aerys had left. this lead me to believe Rhaegar's host was made up mainly off Crownlanders, Kinglanders, Royalist Riverlords, Sellswords\Hedge Knights\Free Riders, Royalist Stormlanders and the Dorinsh host (numbered at 10K-15K if I remember correctly) Meaning Mace Tyrell had his huge own host around Strom's End but that didn't help Aerys much...

Robb was in a good shape, Jaime had 15K with him but they were smashed and scattered, Tywin had 20K bled lightly. Robb had 4-5K cavalry with him with Edmure being able to raise 12K of his own along with Roose Bolton 15K (prior to the battle with tywins host probably around 10-13K afterwards) Robb in my eyes could have crossed the river join up with Bolton's army and go on a showdown against Tywin. but he didn't because the riverlands were so divided and in a mess and ran by clumsy Edmure. Because Robb himself had probably was uncertian of their ability to take down Tywin or because no one really knew what they wanted. or on top of it all because GRRM wanted a Stark downfall and it is a novel so not always rational in it's way

but what if the Vale joined up with Robb that's a sweet dream. and I for one think Robb could have won or at least reach some agreement which ok by their side

Let me ask you something: if you had a choice between fighting a war with Lannister and Tyrell might combined, or with Tyrell forces combined with some Crowland, Dornish, and a few Riverland forces, which would you rather have?

Here's a second question: if you had a choice between fighting a war with Northern forces combined with the Riverlands (those that were loyal), the Stormlands, and the Vale (with some of the power of latter two reduced), or with only Northern and Riverlands forces, which would you choose?

In both cases I would choose the former, which is my point. You claimed that Robb's cause wasn't lost when Highgarden joined up with the Lannisters because, hey, Aerys had Highgarden and he lost. But the thing is, the power dynamics were not the same during the Rebellion. If Aerys was facing the same forces as the Lannister/Tyrell alliance was, then the comparison would be appropriate. But he wasn't, so it isn't. Aerys' forces were weaker when compared to the Lannister/Tyrell alliance, and Eddard and Robert's forces were stronger when compared to Robb's forces. That's what makes the comparison invalid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do believe that had Robb not married Jeyne, and had the Greyjoys not attacked the north, that Robb could have won the war to a stand still and keep his crown. The Riverlands are by far the worse of the Seven Kingdoms to defend, but when you add in the strength of the Riverlands, and that of the North defending it, it can be done. The Lannisters have been beaten pretty bad so far, enough that they are recruiting from the bottom of the barrel. The North is secure from all threats under then the Ironmen, and have only brought half their strength south. So you have a force of 45k Riverlands aided by 20k Northmen defending the riverlands, where they are always going to be kept in supply, where as the Lannisters and Reach have to have supply lines, plus carry out siege warfare. If Robb brings his other 25k northmen south, the Riverlands are defended by 90k. although Robb likely would do that so close to winter.

Also the Redwyne fleet would never have been able to do much against the North. It's supply lines would be so stretched, and it would have no chance other then to do small scale raids on the shores of the north. It's not like the Redwyne fleet can just land troops in the north and win the war. If they even tried they would be met by half the strength of the north, and those who would defend their homes, plus have no supplies, as bring in supplies by ship would likely take the whole Redwyne fleet, and it's very unlikely that they would find northmen willing to supply them.

All in all had Robb not married Jeyne, and the Greyjoys not attacked the north, I think he could have kept his crown and the Riverlands. Also don't forget that there would still be 2 Kings fighting for the Iron Throne, and if Robb can win a few battles in the Riverlands, he can very likely sue for peace so that Stannis and Joffery can slug it out, and spend their strength against one another.

Now if the Vale joined Robb, the war was over, he keeps his crown no issue. The Riverlands, North, and Vale all have equal strength at about 45k each, thats a fighting force of about 135k, and 2 of the most defensible kingdoms of the Seven Kingdoms.

I do agree with Alcatur. Balon move against the north was a very stupid move. I mean not just stupid, but also not very Ironborn. It's known that while the lands around White Harbour are as rich in silver as the Lannister are in gold, the other parts don't seem to be as wealthy. The Ironmen had little to gain from an attack on the north. There is no way they could hope to hold the North. I believe it was Ran who said their strength is about 12k. They just can't hold it with that kind of strength. You would think that a better target would be the Westerlands, which everyone knows to be rich, and which is spending it's strength in the Riverlands, would be a far better target. The rewards would be greater then anything they have ever seen. Also as 3 of the 5 kings claimed to be Kings of the Seven Kingdoms, you would think you would want to ally yourself with the one which has no aims on controlling your lands, instead of trying to spend your strength on lands you can't hold, and wait for one king to win out, and then you have to hold the North and the Iron Islands from the combined might of the south, and likely against rebel northmen.

If I had been Balon I would have raided the Westerlands, gained riches, destroyed what fleets they had, and then sailed with my full might to destroy the fleets of the Arbor, so that my fleet remaining not only the largest, but the sole fleet in the west, and begin the glory days of raiding wherever I wanted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Put me in the camp that thinks they never stood a chance. I've always been of the view that as soon as they captured Jaime and then smashed the Lannister host at Riverrun, they should have made peace with the Lannisters. Robb should have traded Jaime for Sansa, gotten married to either Cersei or Myrcella, and that should have been the end of it.

I am of a like mind with you. Unfortunately Ned got beheaded. The aim of this whole war was actually to save Ned. Sansa was just a girl, so technically has no value other than to make an alliance with another house. I was sure Robb would have made the peace to get Ned back alive, even if Ned had to take the black.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do believe that had Robb not married Jeyne, and had the Greyjoys not attacked the north, that Robb could have won the war to a stand still and keep his crown. The Riverlands are by far the worse of the Seven Kingdoms to defend, but when you add in the strength of the Riverlands, and that of the North defending it, it can be done. The Lannisters have been beaten pretty bad so far, enough that they are recruiting from the bottom of the barrel. The North is secure from all threats under then the Ironmen, and have only brought half their strength south. So you have a force of 45k Riverlands aided by 20k Northmen defending the riverlands, where they are always going to be kept in supply, where as the Lannisters and Reach have to have supply lines, plus carry out siege warfare. If Robb brings his other 25k northmen south, the Riverlands are defended by 90k. although Robb likely would do that so close to winter.

For a start, there is no force of 45k Riverlands, and the 20k Northmen left barely 10k there, at a stretch. If such forces existed, don't you think Robb would have brought themn south originally or utilized the full strength of the Riverlands?

Also the Redwyne fleet would never have been able to do much against the North. It's supply lines would be so stretched, and it would have no chance other then to do small scale raids on the shores of the north. It's not like the Redwyne fleet can just land troops in the north and win the war. If they even tried they would be met by half the strength of the north, and those who would defend their homes, plus have no supplies, as bring in supplies by ship would likely take the whole Redwyne fleet, and it's very unlikely that they would find northmen willing to supply them.

They could forage, and the 10k Northmen would need a great deal of time to gather. The North knows winter is coming, and much of Bran's ACOK POV before the Greyjoy invasion describes how the Northron people are stockpiling food.

All in all had Robb not married Jeyne, and the Greyjoys not attacked the north, I think he could have kept his crown and the Riverlands. Also don't forget that there would still be 2 Kings fighting for the Iron Throne, and if Robb can win a few battles in the Riverlands, he can very likely sue for peace so that Stannis and Joffery can slug it out, and spend their strength against one another.

Agreed.

Now if the Vale joined Robb, the war was over, he keeps his crown no issue. The Riverlands, North, and Vale all have equal strength at about 45k each, thats a fighting force of about 135k, and 2 of the most defensible kingdoms of the Seven Kingdoms.

The Vale has perhaps 20k. This would make 60k swords, more than the Lannisters, but fewer than the Tyrells/Stormlords.

I do agree with Alcatur. Balon move against the north was a very stupid move. I mean not just stupid, but also not very Ironborn. It's known that while the lands around White Harbour are as rich in silver as the Lannister are in gold, the other parts don't seem to be as wealthy. The Ironmen had little to gain from an attack on the north. There is no way they could hope to hold the North. I believe it was Ran who said their strength is about 12k. They just can't hold it with that kind of strength. You would think that a better target would be the Westerlands, which everyone knows to be rich, and which is spending it's strength in the Riverlands, would be a far better target. The rewards would be greater then anything they have ever seen. Also as 3 of the 5 kings claimed to be Kings of the Seven Kingdoms, you would think you would want to ally yourself with the one which has no aims on controlling your lands, instead of trying to spend your strength on lands you can't hold, and wait for one king to win out, and then you have to hold the North and the Iron Islands from the combined might of the south, and likely against rebel northmen.

Well there's Ironmen for you.

If I had been Balon I would have raided the Westerlands, gained riches, destroyed what fleets they had, and then sailed with my full might to destroy the fleets of the Arbor, so that my fleet remaining not only the largest, but the sole fleet in the west, and begin the glory days of raiding wherever I wanted.

Balon is mad, Aeron is madder, and Euron is maddest of all. Well, only the first two really apply here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When I say that they never stood a chance, I mean the matter of the King of the North. I do think Robb, if he handled it better, could have at least rescued his sisters by the end of the conflict. But Stannis would have never let him reign as an independent king, and the Ironborn likely would have killed them all anyways upon returning to Winterfell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

and the Ironborn likely would have killed them all anyways upon returning to Winterfell.

This, I would have to disagree with, because the ironborn can only muster so many, and if Robb had not been betrayed by the Freys, then he probably would have outmaneuvered the greater part of the ironborn host at Moat Cailin, and after that, perhaps a couple thousand ironborn remained to oppose his host.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

zmflavius This forum has has many chats on the strengths of the kingdoms, and even gone into the strength of the Houses. the accepted strength for reach Kingdom is something like this.

North - 45, 000

Riverlands - 45, 000

Vale 45, 000

Westerlands - 50, 000

Stormlands - 30, 000

Reach - 100, 000

Dorne - 20, 000

Iron Islands - 12, 000

Robb didn't bring the full strength of the North for two reasons. One was that it was harvest time, and as Winter is Coming, it's important to gather as much food as you can. Two is that as the North is as large as the whole of the south, it takes them twice as long to muster their force, and that was time that Robb didn't have time to wait.

I'm not sure where you get 20k for the Vale. The Lords Declarant brought about 25k of the vale strength, from what I recall, and that wasn't all of the Vale united against Littlefinger.

The numbers I gave are based off many different threads which have had long talks on the subject, and based on the RPG book, with changes based on what Ran has said, as he gave the strength of each kingdom.

Rodrik Cassal gathered I believe 12k for an attack on Winterfell in a rather fast amount of time. I'm not sure if that is the right number, might have been 8 - 10k, but I don't have the book handy. There were enough men to gather for that quickly, and would be just as many, and given time, much more to defend the coast from any attack from the Reach by sea. And don't forget that Rodrick, while respected, is no Robb or major lord. Men would be more willing to join a lord then a man in the service of a lord. Also foraging is good to help keep your supplies from going down as quick, but it is by no mean any way to supply a army in enemy lands. An army can only eat off the land for so long, and it get worse when in lands you are not familiar with.

Euron at least makes sense from a Ironborn pov. IF he is mad or not, we will figure out later, but his plan is in more with what we know of the Ironborn, and offers the Ironborn more rewards then what Balon offered. I mean Balon's plan was kinda like trying to have the Vikings try and conquer and then hold all of Spain. Doesn't make sense when you got France and England full of riches waiting for you to take.

I also agree though that the Ironborn would have stood no chance had Robb marched back to Winterfell. At Winterfell the Ironborn are forced to fight a pitch battle, or worse suffer a siege. There is no ships for a quick escape. Robb's host is made for fighting on land. The combined force of Infantry and horse would wipe the Ironborn out, who have little to no cavalry to speak of. The Ironborn are great raiders, and at fighting at sea, but place them on land against any army from the Seven Kingdoms, and they will likely be met with defeat every time. The only time we know of that the Iron Islands have held lands in Westeros is when they controlled the Riverlands, and killed the Storm Kingm amd even then we don't have much details about that. Could have been a William the Conqueror type thing where they won one battle, killed a king, and much of the Riverlands just fell to them. We just don't know. All in all, I hold no stock in the Ironborn ability to fight pitched battles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am of a like mind with you. Unfortunately Ned got beheaded. The aim of this whole war was actually to save Ned. Sansa was just a girl, so technically has no value other than to make an alliance with another house. I was sure Robb would have made the peace to get Ned back alive, even if Ned had to take the black.

I'm in complete acknowledgment that the reason Robb did not make peace is because Ned got beheaded but he should have just swallowed his pride and done so anyway. That's what I'm arguing. My exact feeling on the issue is that as soon as he realized he would not get the Vale's support, that should have been the end of him and his rebellion.

He could have at least gotten Sansa back, maybe arranged a future match between Sansa and Tommen, and married either Cersei or Myrcella to make sure the Lannisters didn't try to betray him later on. Then he should have retreated to his realm, like his aunt, and let the Lannisters, Baratheons, and Tyrells bleed themselves out. He probably would have even gotten Arya back under this scenario because the Riverlands wouldn't have become such a war zone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

zmflavius This forum has has many chats on the strengths of the kingdoms, and even gone into the strength of the Houses. the accepted strength for reach Kingdom is something like this.

North - 45, 000

Riverlands - 45, 000

Vale 45, 000

Westerlands - 50, 000

Stormlands - 30, 000

Reach - 100, 000

Dorne - 20, 000

Iron Islands - 12, 000

Robb didn't bring the full strength of the North for two reasons. One was that it was harvest time, and as Winter is Coming, it's important to gather as much food as you can. Two is that as the North is as large as the whole of the south, it takes them twice as long to muster their force, and that was time that Robb didn't have time to wait.

I'm not sure where you get 20k for the Vale. The Lords Declarant brought about 25k of the vale strength, from what I recall, and that wasn't all of the Vale united against Littlefinger.

The numbers I gave are based off many different threads which have had long talks on the subject, and based on the RPG book, with changes based on what Ran has said, as he gave the strength of each kingdom.

Rodrik Cassal gathered I believe 12k for an attack on Winterfell in a rather fast amount of time. I'm not sure if that is the right number, might have been 8 - 10k, but I don't have the book handy. There were enough men to gather for that quickly, and would be just as many, and given time, much more to defend the coast from any attack from the Reach by sea. And don't forget that Rodrick, while respected, is no Robb or major lord. Men would be more willing to join a lord then a man in the service of a lord. Also foraging is good to help keep your supplies from going down as quick, but it is by no mean any way to supply a army in enemy lands. An army can only eat off the land for so long, and it get worse when in lands you are not familiar with.

Euron at least makes sense from a Ironborn pov. IF he is mad or not, we will figure out later, but his plan is in more with what we know of the Ironborn, and offers the Ironborn more rewards then what Balon offered. I mean Balon's plan was kinda like trying to have the Vikings try and conquer and then hold all of Spain. Doesn't make sense when you got France and England full of riches waiting for you to take.

I also agree though that the Ironborn would have stood no chance had Robb marched back to Winterfell. At Winterfell the Ironborn are forced to fight a pitch battle, or worse suffer a siege. There is no ships for a quick escape. Robb's host is made for fighting on land. The combined force of Infantry and horse would wipe the Ironborn out, who have little to no cavalry to speak of. The Ironborn are great raiders, and at fighting at sea, but place them on land against any army from the Seven Kingdoms, and they will likely be met with defeat every time. The only time we know of that the Iron Islands have held lands in Westeros is when they controlled the Riverlands, and killed the Storm Kingm amd even then we don't have much details about that. Could have been a William the Conqueror type thing where they won one battle, killed a king, and much of the Riverlands just fell to them. We just don't know. All in all, I hold no stock in the Ironborn ability to fight pitched battles.

Nerdish reply in process:

your figures for strength of different houses are pretty false.

the North:

Robb takes 18K with him down south but we know he's in a hurry and doesn't have time to scrape the barrel. I'm not sure where you get your figures but Cassel brought 2K men to siege Winterfell not 12K. Joined in by the 1K Bolton and really scraping the barrel in WH and other places who hadn't really bought forth the total might (the rills, the barrowlands, the mountain clans, deserted place in the wolfswood and deserted holdfasts who didn't have time to gather their men). on the overall I would put the north on 25K men to call up to 30K.

45K for the riverlands is quite large as well, if the riverlands had the time to call its forces up and prepare for war better maybe they could fair better but on the overall: Renly estimated their forces at 20k and I'll say that's a good call, Edmure brings 12K to the battle of the fords at the Freys who are 4K alone and all the men the riverlords already lost plus the lords beyond the trident who were bled dry (harrenhal, derry and such contributed no more for the war afterwards) I would sie the riverlands could reach 30K but because of its political climate and geography ad such a fall call up can never be in order there.

For the Vale again your figures are false, they bring 6K men to the siege and LF declare they can bring up to 20K (that may be a bit of an over estimating there) add other Vale great lords and Gulltown plus scraping the barrel from places like the fingers and the three sisters ohh and lets not forget arryn own sworn swords I think the Vale could muster up to 30-35K men but again war isn't a black and white matter and you can't always take everything you got and you always have to keep a garrison.

The Stormlands is a blind spot for me, we never get a figure for them. they were crushed t early in Robert's rebellion and were divided and battered in TWO5K, but I wouldn't give them more then 20K. we know they got strong keeps and can fight well at home but I never reckoned they had any great mobile army under them.

The reach, they bring forth 80K to renly, Willas has 10K with him and he can gather then 10K more within 2 weeks. The Hightowers don't seem to have sent their ground forces to the war and they probably number a good 10K-15K on their own. the reach seems very very populated I would give them a good 120K (because anymore and they just won't be able to arms them and feed them)

Lannisters: Jaime had 15K with him, Tywin had 20K, their brother in lannisport trained new levies and scraped the floor for more men. 40K tops

Dorne: anywhere from 15K to 25K

Iron Islands: they could have 10K to 100K doesn't matter their strength is at sea

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This, I would have to disagree with, because the ironborn can only muster so many, and if Robb had not been betrayed by the Freys, then he probably would have outmaneuvered the greater part of the ironborn host at Moat Cailin, and after that, perhaps a couple thousand ironborn remained to oppose his host.

I think after what we've seen of Robb's ability to handle political situations, it is not hard to imagine him being tricked by Theon upon returning to Winterfell and thinking that the Ironborn were neutral or even with him. After he was dead they'd call it the Wet Wedding.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My number for Rodrick might have been wrong, but as I said I didn't have the book on hand.

I suggest you read this thread , or the hundreds like it, which takes figures from the RPG book, and which Ran then makes changes to based on later changes by GrrM. The numbers are pretty close to what I gave, with only the Iron Islands being off by 3k - 6k

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45K for the riverlands is quite large as well, if the riverlands had the time to call its forces up and prepare for war better maybe they could fair better but on the overall: Renly estimated their forces at 20k and I'll say that's a good call, Edmure brings 12K to the battle of the fords at the Freys who are 4K alone and all the men the riverlords already lost plus the lords beyond the trident who were bled dry (harrenhal, derry and such contributed no more for the war afterwards) I would sie the riverlands could reach 30K but because of its political climate and geography ad such a fall call up can never be in order there.

Don't forget that the Riverlands suffered two defeats before Robb arrived, the first one near the Golden Tooth, and the second one when Jaime smashed "the gathered might of the river lords" (or words to that effect) under Edmure's command right next to Riverrun itself. The latter engagement in particular sounds like a major defeat for the Riverlands. Who knows how many men were slain/incapacitated/deserted because of those two battles, and were thus later unavailable to Robb and Edmure?

EDIT: Oh, and let's not forget that Tywin must also have caused a number of casualties among the Riverlands' manpower while he was marching on the river lords' castles one by one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was reading this: http://www.towerofthehand.com/blog/2011/04/21-war-of-five-kings-lannisters/index.html, it's a summary of the Lannister's strategy during the War of Five Kings and it got me thinking: Could the Starks have won? The North is relatively poor, and without appropriate funds it's not possible to continue the war. IMO, even if the

Red Wedding

hadn't happened, chances are the Lannister's would have been able to beat the Starks simply by outlasting them.

But what if the Starks had marched on Lannisport? What if they'd taken the bulk of their army and marched hard for Casterly Rock? If they captured, or, even better, raided Casterly Rock, they'd have been be able to effectively destroy the main source of Lannister funding, and then fled back to their own lands. But, there's another problem. Tywin anticipated that effectively when he marched on Harrenhal. He would've been able to know, probably before they reached Golden Tooth, that the Starks were heading towards Casterly Rock.

I don't know. If you were Robb Stark, minus the obvious stupidity, what would you have done after capturing Riverrun?

If Edmure hadn't acted the maggot Rob could at the very least have held up Tywin and prevented him from releaving Kingslanding during Stannis attack once Kingslanding fell Tywin would be trapped between Starks and Stannis. The problem is the King in the North title but if he had any sense at all after the Lannisters were defeated he would be happy to get rid of that bend the knee to Stannis and return to the North victorious and with head held high. If he was too stubborn to bend the knee to Stannis then the war would have to drag on longer and its hard to see how the north could come out on top of that one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My number for Rodrick might have been wrong, but as I said I didn't have the book on hand.

I suggest you read this thread , or the hundreds like it, which takes figures from the RPG book, and which Ran then makes changes to based on later changes by GrrM. The numbers are pretty close to what I gave, with only the Iron Islands being off by 3k - 6k

Not really. Ran says later that his figures may be off by as much as 10k, but some of them are logically impossible. Martells aside, which was pre-AFFC information, there's no way Stark could raise close to 45k swords in the best of times, and come out with only 18k, perhaps 20k. The Boltons, for example, took around 3500 south, but from Ramsay himself, we have it that Roose left a mere six hundred to garrison the Dreadfort. If we assume similar ratios for all the houses of the north, then there could be no more than five or six thousand swords available to defend the north in an emergency, which incidentally, is around how many were available to Rodrik Cassel when he assembled his host to re-take Winterfell. The Greyjoy strength, admittedly, is sketchy, but I think in this case, 20k is probably accurate enough. The point is that they have one of the most powerful fleets in Westeros, and enough men to overcome the Stark garrisons in the North. The Tully and Arryn strengths are definitely grossly overinflated, as we have it from Petyr himself that Yohn Royce, with the support of virtually all the Vale, is unable to scrape together more than 20k swords. Rob took several thousand Tully swords westward with him, and perhaps several thousand left to retake the castles from the Lannisters, leaving Edmure with 11k at Stone Mill. This amounts to 21k, or the region thereof, plus the dead from the early battles. In any case, it could not be more than 25-30k. The Lannister, Tyrell, and Baratheon figures are likely accurate, though I was given to understand that Renly's 100k army consisted of both Tyrell and Baratheon swords, so Tyrell strength may be as low as 70k. Still, the point remains, that the Tyrells have many more swords than all the other great houses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

zmflavius how many Houses of the north are you counting when you figure out those numbers? Are you counting Houses that all we really know about is their names? Are you counting the northern mountain clans? What about houses we have yet to hear about? You can't really go by houses. The Boltons may have left 600 guards at the Dreadfort, but in times of war you recruit from the Smallfolks, who when aren't fighting, tend to their fields.

As hmv said, Ramsay Bolton brought 1k to the battle of Winterfell. Do you think that he took every guard from the Dreadfort, and then only 400 smallfolk or guards from elsewhere? More likely he only took half his strength from the Dreadfort, and the other were from lands around the Dreadfort. It's also not like he had time to muster more troops. He didn't spend much time doing that, and still had 1k, and that would likely not count men from Hornwood, as I believe, if I recall right, that their banners were with Rodrick.

I think your forgetting just how big the north is. It takes a fortnight to travel from Lannisport to Bear Island. Thats 14 days, and sailing is by far the quickest way to travel. Thing of all the time it would take for messengers from Winterfell to visit every House to call for forces, even with ravens being sent to the more powerful ones. Think then how long it would take for all those forces to gather, most would be on foot, and then to set off south.

To compare it to something from the Citadel.

Stoney Sept is a large town less than a fortnight from Acorn Hall. It is greater than the castleton of Harrenhal, and is walled for its protection. Its sept stands upon a hill, with a stout holdfast of grey stone below it that seems too small for such a large town. It was the site of the Battle of the Bells during Robert's War (III: 253, 327, 328)

Less then a fortnight, but it seems to be close enough to one that it's compared for one. You look on the map and the two aren't that far from one another, and it takes close to a fortnight to travel. Might be 8 days, might be 10, who knows, but it's compared to a fortnight and not simply a week or a few days.

How long would it take for every House, every holdfast to gather their troops by the time the gain word of the call to arms, mustering their local troops, and then setting out for Winterfell or somewhere like Moat Cailin?

Robb didn't have the time to wait for his full strength, and even if he did he wouldn't do so so close to winter, as is his House words, Winter is Coming. They must prepare for winter, and bring in the last harvests so that are ready to endure the hardships of winter. He also knew that he could expect reinforcements from the Riverlands, which by the time he got there are already lost battles, and castles, and if I recall, most the lords had returned to defend their own lands from the Lannisters instead of remaining in an army.

I don't think anyone disputed that House Tyrell can gather the largest army. Thats a fact.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...