Whose going to protect the Frey's now?

[Snowy89]

I think most will agree Frey's are fucked in the long-run, unless they manage to come on top of the pyramid which is very unlikely, seems like old Walder Frey has a bit more fuckin to do before his army is large enough :P

On the other hand Greyjoy will probably survived, they haven't done anything people don't expect from them so they'll be humbled again and Asha will take over..

[Noroldis]

There's a reason we even found out about the fact that Tom O' Sevens was staying at Riverrun and were specifically informed Jaime had stripped the castle of most of its defenders in order to double protection on the party heading to Casterly Rock. I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Brotherhood Without Banners is taking the castle back and they won't need to do any kind of straightforward assault to do it. It's going to mirror how Theon took Winterfell, only much easier since I doubt the defenders that are there are going to put up much of a fight.

Are we specifically told how many reliable soldiers the Lannisters have left in/near Riverrun at the end of Feast? Whatever the answer, as long Jaime remains there, I doubt the Brotherhood will make any sort of attempt. Maybe after he's gone, but even if the Brotherhood succeeds at taking Riverrun, what's to prevent the Lannisters and/or Freys from assembling a new host and then returning to besiege the castle anew? The Brotherhood's greatest assets are mobility and secrecy. If they take Riverrun and remain there, they lose both.

By the way, did you never wonder where all those soldiers released by Jaime after he took Riverrun will end up?

And how many soldiers is that? Three hundred, I think? In any case, the castle's garrison would almost certainly have been overwhelmed had Jaime gone through with his threat of assaulting Riverrun. I believe the same would happen if those soldiers and the Brotherhood did retake Riverrun, and the Lannisters and/or their allies returned later on.

If anything, next time we see the Brotherhood Without Banners their numbers will have probably doubled.

Maybe, maybe not. Given that the Brotherhood seems to have taken serious losses since the Red Wedding, those new members might be just enough to cope with losses. And let's not forget that the Brotherhood has effectively lost its leader, Lord Beric. Will UnCat prove as good in the long run at maintaining the Brotherhood's cohesion, drive and sense of purpose in the face of mounting losses?

[Kaitscralt]

Maybe, maybe not. Given that the Brotherhood seems to have taken serious losses since the Red Wedding, those new members might be just enough to cope with losses. And let's not forget that the Brotherhood has effectively lost its leader, Lord Beric. Will UnCat prove as good in the long run at maintaining the Brotherhood's cohesion, drive and sense of purpose in the face of mounting losses?

They've been going for a whole book since Beric died, and I'd say their accomplishments are more notable with Cat, if less noble.

[Faint]

Are we specifically told how many reliable soldiers the Lannisters have left in/near Riverrun at the end of Feast? Whatever the answer, as long Jaime remains there, I doubt the Brotherhood will make any sort of attempt. Maybe after he's gone, but even if the Brotherhood succeeds at taking Riverrun, what's to prevent the Lannisters and/or Freys from assembling a new host and then returning to besiege the castle anew? The Brotherhood's greatest assets are mobility and secrecy. If they take Riverrun and remain there, they lose both.

This will all happen after Jaime leaves of course, but that's the whole point -- he is going to leave and soon. He has no reason to stay at Riverrun anymore. As for the Lannisters mounting another assault, yes, that's possible but not likely when they have a dozen other concerns right now starting with the fact that the entire Tyrell army is marching on King's Landing. I don't even think it will get to a point where they'll be focused on Riverrun again. Matters are going to start spiraling so out of control that Riverrun will seem unimportant. Soon there will be rebellion in the North, in Dorne, and in the Vale, plus Daenerys on her way -- compared to that, Riverrun will be the least of Lannister worries.

Maybe, maybe not. Given that the Brotherhood seems to have taken serious losses since the Red Wedding, those new members might be just enough to cope with losses. And let's not forget that the Brotherhood has effectively lost its leader, Lord Beric. Will UnCat prove as good in the long run at maintaining the Brotherhood's cohesion, drive and sense of purpose in the face of mounting losses?

That's more questionable but then again, do we have any evidence that she can't? Right now everyone follows her orders as quickly as they did Beric's. Moreover, if they actually get a castle they will have proved even more successful than before. Their recruitment numbers will just keep on growing.

This also goes back to my earlier point. The Lannisters will not have the time or will to keep hunting them down. If anything, their casualties will go down. They'll only be facing the Freys at that point. In other words, the Lannisters are in a terrible position right now, so if that's who you are counting on to control the Brotherhood Without Banners, I think that amounts to a pipe dream.

[Noroldis]

Kaitscralt:

They've been going for a whole book since Beric died, and I'd say their accomplishments are more notable with Cat, if less noble.

Just because the Brotherhood hasn't collapsed yet doesn't mean they're doing well. Infiltrating Riverrun and killing Ser Ryman Frey's party are worthy accomplishments, sure, but IMO they cannot make up for the losses the Brotherhood seems to have sustained.

Alleluia Cone:

This will all happen after Jaime leaves of course, but that's the whole point -- he is going to leave and soon. He has no reason to stay at Riverrun anymore.

I thought Jaime intended to remain up until the Blackfish had been recaptured. And if he did decide to leave Cersei to her fate, lingering in Riverrun while events play out in King's Landing would be one way to accomplish that. Then again, you could be right and Jaime will soon leave to go deal with the KL situation – but that doesn't mean that the Brotherhood will be able to take full advantage of that given the losses they seem to have taken.

That's more questionable but then again, do we have any evidence that she can't? Right now everyone follows her orders as quickly as they did Beric's.

I'd say the Brotherhood's situation as explained in that last Brienne chapter is proof that she's not doing as well as Beric did. For one thing, UnCat seems to have abandoned the ideal of justice, which is what attracted Gendry, for one, to the Brotherhood. From the Tower of the Hand website, the summary of Brienne's eight chapter:

Brienne asks the man who he is, and he replies that he and his fellows are kingsmen without a king and a brotherhood that has been broken. He knows not where they are going now, but knows the road is dark. Brienne realizes the man is Thoros, which he confirms. He also says that Lord Beric's fire has gone out of the world. Thoros brings her food and tells her what has become of her companions. Meribald was sent on his way, but Podrick and Ser Hyle are also awaiting judgment. Brienne asks for mercy for odrick since he is only a boy, but Thoros tells her that the cave holds no mercy. She asks of justice, and he responds that they did justice when Lord Beric was alive, but now thing are different.

Moreover, if they actually get a castle they will have proved even more successful than before. Their recruitment numbers will just keep on growing.

This also goes back to my earlier point. The Lannisters will not have the time or will to keep hunting them down. If anything, their casualties will go down. They'll only be facing the Freys at that point. In other words, the Lannisters are in a terrible position right now, so if that's who you are counting on to control the Brotherhood Without Banners, I think that amounts to a pipe dream.

If the Brotherhood makes itself a stationary target by taking a castle and remaining there, then yes, I think the Freys would be capable of inflicting crippling casualties, if not wipe out the Brotherhood entirely. Also, sooner or later the troubles in King's Landing will be resolved. Whether it's the Tyrells or Lannisters who win, I doubt they'll be willing to let the Brotherhood or any other rebels keep Riverrun. Yes, Dany's arrival, if it happens, could distract the rulers in KL from a Brotherhood-held Riverrun… or it could make them decide that Riverrun needs to be retaken pronto, and send part of their army to do so.

[Faint]

@Noroldis

I have many different assumptions than you. For starters:

[list = 1]

[*]I don't think Jaime is going to stay at Riverrun much longer.

[*]I don't think the situation in King's Landing will be resolved quickly.

[*]I don't think the Tyrells will care about Riverrun while the Reach remains under attack.

[*]I do think Dorne will soon declare war in the name of Daenerys Targaryen via Arianne after Doran dies.

[*]I do think the situation in the Vale will finally boil over and Sansa's presence will be revealed.

[*]I do think the situation in the North will finally reach a point where it can no longer be ignored by most of the realm.

[*]And, finally, I think by the time Daenerys gets to Westeros, the Tyrells will be desperately trying to think of some way to get on her good side -- maybe starting with double crossing the Lannisters and presenting Tommen's corpse for her inspection.

I could be wrong about all this, I don't deny that, but my take is that the Riverlands will become its own sphere of the story, involving the Freys and the Brotherhood Without Banners only. I actually think we'll get few POV, if any, from the location in the near term and our only information about what's going on will come from reports that Freys are being hung left and right.

[tuthmoses]

one way or another the Freys are going down and they are going down hard, I wouldn't be surprised if every last one of them are taken out the BWB probably being the main instrument. Old Walder will likely see all his dozens of sons and grandsons etc being hung, butchered, beheaded whatever before he himself is ripped apart by a pack of hungry wolves led by a giant she wolf that somehow or other break into the twins ... eh I'm getting ahead of myself. But yeah they have no reliable allies, no friends, pretty much everyone thinks they are bad news and nobody is going to marry into them. They're screwed the only question is who will do the screwing.

[Kaitscralt]

They're screwed the only question is who will do the screwing.

Frankenrobb!

[Bronn is God]

I thought you wanted Bron to be the King? Maybe if he marries Ramsay Snow both your wishesh come true?

Bronn is God.

The 7 will be removed and the peoples would worship the living God that is Bronn. King Roose I will declare holy war against the free cities in his name.

It is known.

[Gurkhal]

Bronn is God.

The 7 will be removed and the peoples would worship the living God that is Bronn. King Roose I will declare holy war against the free cities in his name.

It is known.

Praise Bronn! I shall pledge my sword to the holy cause our god and king!

In regards to the Frey I don't think that the BWB will be able to knock them down for a long time. While the Lannisters may not like them the Lannisters are still not Starks with their honor so far up their rears they can lick it. House Frey is the only House which is standing on the side of the Lannisters while the rest hates them. Also with the marriage alliance between the Freys and Boltons I think that Roose would also have a vested interest in seeing House Frey survive.

As to the enemies of the Freys I don't see anything to impressive.

The other Riverlords had their best men butchered and lands ravaged during the war, while the Freys stands reasonably strong. They may be pissed but I'm not sure that they are ready to fight a new war. And as the Lannisters have some political understanding I doubt that they will allow separatists to break the king's peace with impunity.

The BWB is a guerilla movement and while they could infiltrate Riverrun, infiltraiting the Twins will be an entirely different process with few friends to help them out. If the BWB makes themselves a sitting target, the Freys will destroy them, and I think that as the BWB turns more like other outlaws their support among the smallfolk will vaporize.

The Vale is not entirely likly to be the enemies of the Freys, and they look more like they're gearing up for a civil war than anything else.

The Faith may hate the Freys, but at the moment the Faith has managed to seriously piss off the Tyrells and most likly the Lannisters sees the Faith as a threat. Thus I do not think that the Faith will be able to make any kind of moves before the resolution of the situation in King's Landing. I strongly suspect that the Faith won't just hand over Maergery and go fight some other war. The situation between the Faith and the BWB is also interesting as Stoneheart is taking the BWB down a more sinister way. With that, and with the presence of followers of the Red God and the Hound (or at least his helmet worn by one of the members of the BWB), who is said to have sacked the Saltspans it is not unreasonably that the Faith will target the BWB as well, if their army makes it to the Riverlands and then we can see how things will turn ever worse in a three-sided war. I for one pity the poor smallfolk or the Riverlands.

[Snowmelter]

I have been of the opinion for a long time now that the first major assault by the Others will be at the Twins. None of the Southrons seem to be aware of anything north of the Neck. No one listens to the Night's Watch (see the Tyrion chapter when the rep of the NW brings the rotting zombie hand to the Council), no one cares. I think the Others will sweep out of the North, driving Jon, the NW that remains, and Stannis and his host (what's left of it, and no promises that Stannis is still alive, though Mel probably will be) before it. This wave of fucktastickness will crash against the Twins, which so richly deserves it due to their horrible conduct thus far. By AFFC, the Frey name has been equated with underhanded tricks, dishonesty, and dishonor (see the Jamie chapter wherein a Frey suggests poisoning weapons with shit [nightsoil].

[The faceless others]

House Frey will never die, maybe it will just be dissolved through inter marriage, Edmure Tulley's wife for example. I'm betting that at the end of the series, Lord Walder will still be left standing, outliving his enemies.

[Noroldis]

@Alleluia Cone:

Well, we'll likely know within a few months which one of us is right :) (and it feels so good to be able to post that). But even if everything you listed comes to pass and the Riverlands are left to their own devices, it's no guarantee that the Brotherhood will try to take Riverrun, or hold it for long if it does. One of my main points throughout our discussion has been that by the end of Feast, the Brotherhood is too weakened for such a large operation as taking and holding Riverrun would be.

[Daemin]

My feelings on the matter of that the Frays are done for.

Remember that it was said of one Targ King that he had left the line secure for all time, because of the number of his offspring. We all know how that ended. I've argued elsewhere on this board, though the thread my be lost in the mists of time at this point, that ASOIF is very fractal, i.e. you have the same basic stories played out again and again with minor changes and variations. A prime example is Cat and Cersei: they both married high lords, but not the ones they thought they would, they are both fated to watch/ have watched all their children killed, both fated to "drown in grief", etc.

Given this, coupled with the numerous mentions to how many Fray heirs there are, and comments like "fielding an army from his britches," I suspect we will see a repeat of the Targ situation: all those heirs, which supposedly made the line secure for all time, will come to naught.

[Gurkhal]

I think you may have a point in that all the Freys might turn out to be useless, but I wouldn't take it for granted. I think much of it depends on how violent that the potential Frey civil war is before Black Walder, Edwyn or some other Frey stand as victor.

[paddydubh]

House Frey will never die, maybe it will just be dissolved through inter marriage, Edmure Tulley's wife for example. I'm betting that at the end of the series, Lord Walder will still be left standing, outliving his enemies.

I agree with this to an extent. I think Lord Walder is going to snuff it though! They will survive througg the Frey/Rosby children which were no part in the wedding, and are now married into the Tully line. Perwyn, Olyvar and Roslin (is this Edmure's wife? I cant remember her name) are all Rosby's and seem to be the only Frey's with credibility. Also they haven't got the dreaded curse of breaking guestright to there names, plus the BWB wont be going after them as Lady Stoneheart knows they took no part.

Perwyn helped Catelyn, took no part in the Red Wedding and is also looked on as decent by Daven Lannister. Olyvar was loyal to the hilt to Robb Stark. Roslin is the new Lady Tully.

Of course for them to be the ruling brood of Freys then a lot of the other heirs must die (something I'm looking forward to). But I believe that these will be the only Freys left with any sense of honour and therefore have a greater chance of surviving.

I think Daemin's point of history repeating itself with the Targs may be ttue. But in this case I think we migth see a better bloodline arise. Preferably breeding out the stoat gene in the process!

[the Scorpion Knight]

Basicly nothing.

Roose will dump the Freys to gain Acceptence and support in the north.(why do I think he'l a be a POV in DwD and a sympathetic one)

littlefinger cares nothing for his territory.(AFAIK he is liege lord of the rivers)

the lannisters (devan) might outlaw them to give the region a unified cause.

and the freys themselves are in the BEGINNING of their own civil war. black frey killing everyone in his way.

[Jaak]

I think you may have a point in that all the Freys might turn out to be useless, but I wouldn't take it for granted. I think much of it depends on how violent that the potential Frey civil war is before Black Walder, Edwyn or some other Frey stand as victor.

And my point is, Lannisters, Littlefinger and the river-lords may be hesitant to attack Freys "just because", since it looks like treachery and breaking King Tommen´s peace on their side. But interfering in a Frey civil war on a side they claim to be right - preferrably the waker side, so they can claim most individual Freys were on the wrong side - would satisfy these scruples.

Little Walda Frey seems nice. By Andal Law, she is the right heir if Edwyn dies, she is obviously innocent of Red Wedding, and anybody who helps defend her inheritance and clear Twins of her evil uncles and granduncles (most of them) can get to run her lands for years (she is 8) and marry her off to a suitable boy.

If Robert Arryn lives long enough (and a few months might be enough), how about marrying Walda? Defending his wife´s inheritance is something a lot of the otherwise divided Vale might agree on....

[Gurkhal]

Maybe it could work. But I don't think that any civil war will be with a tiny child as a candidate and most grown Freys seems to have been taking part in the Red Wedding, or being guilty by association. My bets are that Black Walder and Edwyn will be the two most important candidates for the war. At present alot of things will need to change to make the Riverlords or Lannisters have the forces to spare to add another conflict to their table.

[The Sand Snake]

Truthfully, the Freys lives depend on who take the twins or catch them in the open. Eventually, Sansa will become a powerful lady and she will know what happened to her brother/mother at the Red Wedding if she isnt already completely aware. If she comes to the twins with an army that will be bad for the Freys. However if Uncat somehow gets inside or takes the twins, i expect most of the line to be wiped out, women and children too. She doesnt have sympathy or truly human thoughts I feel like. She might just kill them all