Whose going to protect the Frey's now?

[Gurkhal]

Stoneheart will kill everyone she comes across, guilty or not. Although seeing that bitch Little Walda Frey or the asshole Olyvar Frey swing is something that warms my heart. (a light touch of irony or sarcasm...)

Sansa may or may not come to the Twins, but then agains she hasn't showed herself to be much of a vengeaful character so I wouldn't trust that she'll make the massacre that all the pro-Starks are itching for.

[AvengingAryaFan]

If Petyr is going to press his claim for the Riverlands any time in the future, he could put himself at the head of an anti-Frey-movement. After all, he honestly had no hand in the Red Wedding, and as guardian of the presumed Lady of Winterfell he would have the perfect pretext to cleanse the Riverlands from its foul weasel brood on his way North.

And there is actually no way that the Freys and Littlefinger/Sansa/Harry are able to maintain a peace with House Frey after they reveal Sansa's true identity. Learning that there is still a Stark heir with Tully blood around, might be enough to unite the complete Riverlands against the Freys. They will never rule the Riverlands, nor will they be able to maintain their position as a house. They might very well be completely destroyed in the end.

Haha, by "no hand" in the Red Wedding you meant he only had his little finger in it, right?

No, I'm sure you're serious, and you may well be right. But my impression of Tywin is that while he is barbaric, brutal and devoid of moral compunction, he also lacks originality. Exterminating whole Houses, Tarbecks and Reynes: brutal but not brilliant. Gang-raping Tysha: brutal but not brilliant. Turning on Aerys: not brilliant. Sacking KL: brutal and nothing else; reaving the riverlands: brutal but not brilliant. And staring down that other noble who was teasing him: totally not brilliant. After Jaime's defeat at the Whispering Woods, Tywin went around asking everybody what should be done. Granted, he pursued the most diabolically evil but potentially effective course - he isn't stupid, just unoriginal.

I don't think we have evidence of any brilliant thing that he's done on his own. He was certainly central to the RW conspiracy, but assuming it was his idea begs the question (i.e., is circular reasoning). The RW conspiracy was original and brilliant, requiring an excellent grasp of both Robb's and Walder Frey's foibles, and deeply evil too. Tywin is plenty evil, but IMO lacks the brilliant originality. The RW conspiracy seems more like one of LF's plots that he tosses out like seeds to see which grow. So yes, I'm in the "LF is behind everything evil" (unless proven innocent) camp.

LF never leaves fingerprints; he acts through others who either have their own reasons not to reveal his guidance (Joffrey/pride, Dontos/money+death, the Kettleblacks/loyalty?, etc.). I can imagine that his one requirement before providing the idea to Tywin was that he not be associated with the plot - it would obviously muck up his plans for Sansa, and as you point out it would also make an anti-Frey stand look hypocritical - can't have that! Seriously, he'd understand full well how much blowback there was bound to be, and want no part of that.

But I'm with you on the idea of LF leading an anti-Frey campaign if he can use it to his advantage. It's hard work creating chaos, and none of it should be wasted!

ETA:

I actually think the Greyjoys are not doomed in the long term but a lot of that depends on whether Asha survives or not. Either way, they will have to change -- they will have to sow. As for the Lannisters, that's a really interesting question. I don't know who will be left. I doubt Cersei or Jaime will still be alive, and I don't think Tyrion, even if he survives, will take charge either. I kind of foresee Kevan leading a greatly diminished House into the future. They might end up being the weakest of the seven big houses in the realm.

It's also been suggested that there is a way for Tyrion Lannister to inherit Casterly Rock - something he dearly wants. His killing of Tywin could yet be spun as payment for his part in the RW, thus insulating Tyrion (who truly did not know of it) from its fallout. The Lannisters might end up greatly weakened and much diminished in ... stature ... but it's still a rich land.

[AvengingAryaFan]

Sybell's name means "female prophet". There's been much wondering on the boards about Jeyne's shrinking hips, and whether that means Sybell double- (or triple-) crossed the Lannisters. Note that Sybell rather angrily made clear to Jaime that she wouldn't have allowed Raynald to attend the RW had she known of the plot; because Raynald received a couple of quarrels trying to save Grey Wind and is presumed dead, she has a pretty good alibi. However, she'd be even more in favor of the people of the riverlands and the north (excepting the Boltons, of course) if she had double-crossed Tywin and allowed Jeyne to get pregnant by Robb. If she's a seer - and she's a daughter or granddaughter of Maggy the Frog, so it's entirely possible - she might have seen sufficient hint of the eventual downfall of the Lannisters and Freys to feel it essential to hedge her bets by only seeming to prevent conception.

This line of reasoning suggests that the Lordship of Castamere may be as poisoned a chalice as possession of Harrenhal. It was given to Sybell's brother Rolph Spicer, a rich reward for a mere castellan of a minor castle, and pretty strong evidence that he was involved in the RW. So while Sybell has an alibi and possibly an heir to contribute, Rolph Spicer may find himself on the wrong end of Faith/smallfolk pitchforks when the movement against the perpetrators of the RW gets steamed up - something I expect LF will enjoy the irony of encouraging.

To be explicit, the presumption underlying all this is that nobody will ultimately be able to protect the Freys, who directly violated guest right on a massive scale; and that those who actively assisted that violation may also fall victims to the blowback.

ETA: I also notice my reasoning about Rolph Spicer requires the direction of the plot by the Lannisters to be recognized, something that isn't yet a given.

[AvengingAryaFan]

Sorry to put so many posts in a row ... catching up.

(About UnCat's ability to lead the BwB successfully):

That's more questionable but then again, do we have any evidence that she can't? Right now everyone follows her orders as quickly as they did Beric's. Moreover, if they actually get a castle they will have proved even more successful than before. Their recruitment numbers will just keep on growing.

This also goes back to my earlier point. The Lannisters will not have the time or will to keep hunting them down. If anything, their casualties will go down. They'll only be facing the Freys at that point. In other words, the Lannisters are in a terrible position right now, so if that's who you are counting on to control the Brotherhood Without Banners, I think that amounts to a pipe dream.

First, UnCat has not only become indiscriminate (evil), which will drive some men away, she has already split the BwB; a faction (under/with Edric Dayne?) has split off. But I don't know how well her blind vengeance will suit all the returning riverlands fighters, who after all have nominally promised not to take up arms again, and who are probably pretty anxious to get their devastated lands in order in view of the imminent arrival of winter.

As for enemies of the BwB, Tarly is apparently hanging outlaws, including, thus far, a dozen BwB (though the BwB haven't started hanging Tarly men in retaliation yet; Tarly is a Tyrell bannerman, IIRC). Given that they are primary BwB targets, I should think that the Freys will be actively seeking the BwB.

Don't know if the BwB will take formal possession of Riverrun - I think that would be disastrous for them - but I agree the Lannisters are likely to lose it due to Jaime leaving a weak garrison and Tom O' Sevens being inside.

House Frey will never die, maybe it will just be dissolved through inter marriage, Edmure Tulley's wife for example. I'm betting that at the end of the series, Lord Walder will still be left standing, outliving his enemies.

Yes, standing ... alone, with no heirs, after creating so many that he was the "only man who ever fielded an army out of his breeches".

Or, like Daemin said:

Remember that it was said of one Targ King that he had left the line secure for all time, because of the number of his offspring. We all know how that ended. I've argued elsewhere on this board, though the thread my be lost in the mists of time at this point, that ASOIF is very fractal, i.e. you have the same basic stories played out again and again with minor changes and variations. A prime example is Cat and Cersei: they both married high lords, but not the ones they thought they would, they are both fated to watch/ have watched all their children killed, both fated to "drown in grief", etc.

Given this, coupled with the numerous mentions to how many Fray heirs there are, and comments like "fielding an army from his britches," I suspect we will see a repeat of the Targ situation: all those heirs, which supposedly made the line secure for all time, will come to naught.

As to how it transpires, I can't believe everybody forgets that whole Arya subplot being developed over in Braavos ... her connection to Nymeria, her warging, her killing, Nymeria's huge pack ... the wolves and Arya, among others, are coming down on House Frey. Eventually. Probably in TWOW.

[Gurkhal]

I for one don't think that the smallfolk will rise up and kill those part of the Red Wedding. We've seen worship for the nobility by the smallfolk, and the Starks and Tully certainly did not have a cult of personality going. Most likly there will be noble houses who are infuriated or the Faith, possibly, if anyone will turn on the Freys for the Red Wedding alone.

[Faint]

I'm still rather confident in my belief that the Riverlands are going to be essentially abandoned by both Lannister and Tyrell forces. And people also forget that Bolton took two thousand Freys when he went North. Going by the numbers mentioned AGoT, the Freys only had four thousand to start with. So we're looking at a situation where the Freys are the only great force left in the Riverlands and they have, at most, two thousand spears. In other words, they're not really in a position of power.

[Septon Meribald]

I'm not sure I see an concerted effort by anyone to get rid of the Freys just yet. I don't see the BwB storming and taking Riverrun and certainly not the Twins. I am pretty sure Tom O'Sevens is there as an assassin, not to open the gate. Little finger might have plans for them and can use a campaign against them to unite the Riverlands and solidify his control, but he's still working on the Vale for now. The Lannisters have their own problems to worry about. The Starks have to power to come at them with. The Tyrells, Martells and the Greyjoys have no reason to care.

[Faint]

I agree about there being no concerted effort, even by the Brotherhood Without Banners. My thinking is that the Freys will slowly but persistently lose numbers to a variety of factors -- Catelyn, the small folk, the Sparrows, the war in the North, themselves. By the end, there will be less than a shell left, less than a thousand. That's when I think the wolves descend.

[shapur]

There seems to be much ongoing debate about if and how the BWB would be able to take and hold Riverrun. I believe that while a strike at Riverrun is imminent, the BWB wont attempt to hold it. Something similar would be much better from a strategical perspective. It drives home the message that the BWB is strong, and that the Freys and their allies are going to end up dead. At the same time, it denies the enemy a fortified position, and helps to raise the morale of the opposition. In general, I see the whole campaign of the BWB quite in par with the deeds of Good Sir James, at the earlier part of the 1st Scottish War of Independence.

[Faint]

I'm torn on the issue because under regular circumstances, not only would it not be wise for the Brotherhood Without Banners to hold Riverrun, it wouldn't be possible. On the other hand, these are not normal circumstances. As I keep pointing out, I don't think either the Lannister or Tyrell swords will be in the Riverlands much longer, leaving only the Frey contingent. And at the moment, if I have my numbers right, I think the Freys can only muster -- at best -- half their usual force. In any case, probably not enough to conduct a siege of Riverrun by themselves.

That does make for a good question though -- what should the Brotherhood Without Banners do?

Take Riverrun, execute Emmon Frey and Genna Lannister, and then leave? Gather the Riverrun soldiers released by Jaime and hold the castle? Or, do both, take Riverrun, execute Emmon and Genna, gather the Riverrun soldiers and then disappear back into the forests of the Riverlands?

That last option may be the best bet. They could even conduct gorilla warfare on the Frey force that Walder is likely to send in order to re-take Riverrun, further decimating the Frey banners.

[shapur]

I'm torn on the issue because under regular circumstances, not only would it not be wise for the Brotherhood Without Banners to hold Riverrun, it wouldn't be possible. On the other hand, these are not normal circumstances. As I keep pointing out, I don't think either the Lannister or Tyrell swords will be in the Riverlands much longer, leaving only the Frey contingent. And at the moment, if I have my numbers right, I think the Freys can only muster -- at best -- half their usual force. In any case, probably not enough to conduct a siege of Riverrun by themselves.

That does make for a good question though -- what should the Brotherhood Without Banners do?

Take Riverrun, execute Emmon Frey and Genna Lannister, and then leave? Gather the Riverrun soldiers released by Jaime and hold the castle? Or, do both, take Riverrun, execute Emmon and Genna, gather the Riverrun soldiers and then disappear back into the forests of the Riverlands?

That last option may be the best bet. They could even conduct gorilla warfare on the Frey force that Walder is likely to send in order to re-take Riverrun, further decimating the Frey banners.

I too believe that the last option is probably the only real option the BWB has. I can't see them interested in holding a castle, thus placing themselves in a situation that they could be dragged to a pitched battle. It would be the first time they'd do something like that. Plus, I would expect them to execute any prisoner serving under Freys at Riverrun, prossibly also burn the castle to the ground, so that it wont be easy for their enemies to use it as a base anytime soon. And with winter coming, I don't think they'll have either the will or the resources necessary to rebuild it. Which raises the question though. When winter comes, where the BWB will be? It can't survive in the forest, I suppose, and still be in fighting shape.

[Swordfish]

The BWB will take and hold river run until the blackfish and sansa/littlefinger arrive.

Then they'll use it as a base to re-take the north once Dany arrives.

Old man fry will die, and the fry's will self destruct. If ever there's been a character ripe for redemption, it's Edmure, so look for him to come out on top there when you least expect it.

[Blue Steel]

The Blackfish is going to join the BWB and they are going to cause havok.

If there was an official draft for an outlaw group, my number one pick would be the Blackfish. He's so perfect for the job. The Freys are doomed.

[East of the Wood]

I reckon the Freys will end up being their own worst enemy. They're all fighting for the Late Lords seat of power so they'll fight each other.Someone within house Frey will off Walder Frey and start a cascade of murders.

As for the support of other houses, house Frey has broken the ancient rule of guest right so apart from the Lannisters and Boltons, no one is gonna give a damn about them. The Lannisters will be too busy trying to combat Stannis and keep the Iron throne and the Boltons will be busy with Winterfell and the marriage of Ramsey Snow.

[Gurkhal]

I reckon the Freys will end up being their own worst enemy. They're all fighting for the Late Lords seat of power so they'll fight each other.Someone within house Frey will off Walder Frey and start a cascade of murders.

As for the support of other houses, house Frey has broken the ancient rule of guest right so apart from the Lannisters and Boltons, no one is gonna give a damn about them. The Lannisters will be too busy trying to combat Stannis and keep the Iron throne and the Boltons will be busy with Winterfell and the marriage of Ramsey Snow.

I think you've got it a bit mixed up. I agree that few Houses except for the Boltons and Lannisters will genuinly care about the Freys, but many could see the potential of having a hated Great House that is dependent on the Iron Throne, better than a loved Great House with a history of rebellion against their overlords. Thus I can see the Tyrell take an interest in them. However I would figure that the Lannisters will mostly be involved with the Faith and Tyrells, the Tyrells with the Faith, the Lannisters and the Ironborn, while Roose and Ramsay takes care of the North and Stannis. In the end more or less similar but with some changes.

[Whitering]

The gods of the Seven Kingdoms do not take direct routes to anything. Lord Frey will die, there will be civil war. They will kill each other and the house will fall to ruin. I can only wonder what the Arryns did to piss the gods off.

[Gurkhal]

Probably nothing at all. Kind of the same that Robb did to get his head chopped off and Brienne to get herself hanged by Stoneheart.

[East of the Wood]

I think you've got it a bit mixed up. I agree that few Houses except for the Boltons and Lannisters will genuinly care about the Freys, but many could see the potential of having a hated Great House that is dependent on the Iron Throne, better than a loved Great House with a history of rebellion against their overlords. Thus I can see the Tyrell take an interest in them. However I would figure that the Lannisters will mostly be involved with the Faith and Tyrells, the Tyrells with the Faith, the Lannisters and the Ironborn, while Roose and Ramsay takes care of the North and Stannis. In the end more or less similar but with some changes.

I don't know about that. The Freys have proven they're completely unreliable. While the Tyrells have a huge army they could maybe keep the Freys in check but hasn't it often been said that the Late Lord Frey is the only person who could field an army out of his breeches, or some such? I just can't see Mace Tyrell getting involved with Walfer Frey.

[Gurkhal]

I don't know about that. The Freys have proven they're completely unreliable. While the Tyrells have a huge army they could maybe keep the Freys in check but hasn't it often been said that the Late Lord Frey is the only person who could field an army out of his breeches, or some such? I just can't see Mace Tyrell getting involved with Walfer Frey.

I could more be seeing that the Tyrells could see the advantage of keeping the Freys in position as the dominant power of the Riverlands. In fact I would appoint them as the new overlords of that region. Now you may probably wonder, why the hell I would do that with that bunch of traitors. The answer is that they can be easily controlled.

The Freys are hated by the Riverlords at this point and as the Riverlands recover, the Freys will be more and more dependent on outsider support to keep themselves on the top, as well as focused on making sure that they are on the top. The advantage of this is that the Iron Throne can then pretty much count on the Freys not doing something stupied - unlike the Tullys for example. Sure the Frey are unreliable, but they don't have the loyalty of the other Houses and so could not do well to not throw in their lot with the Iron Throne. Hence, as I see it, the Freys would be unlikly to rebell as many of their sworn Houses would take advantage of that to turn on them.

Also the possibility is that the Freys could perhaps be manipulated to make the dirty work and drag their name in the dirt, and so allow the Tyrells to stay clean. In exchange for continued support. It would work pretty good with the Lannisters as well, as they are pretty skilled with politics if memory recall.

EDIT: I wouldn't call the Freys completely unreliable, but more of extremely proud and somewhat stupied about it.

[Lord Varys]

AvengingAryaFan,

mostly we get at least a clue or a hint that Littlefinger might be involved in something. There a clues pointing towards him being behind Ned's execution or behind Mandon Moore's attempt on Tyrion. But all information we get on the Red Wedding indicates that Littlefinger had really nothing to do with it. But I agree with you that Tywin was not that much involved, either. I also agree that Tywin was not that much of a original thinking, too. He outright dismisses the possibility that the lands beyond the Wall could support large numbers of people. That shows that he really has his limits.

Tywin's role in the Red Wedding was more or less only assuring Roose Bolton and Walder Frey that they would be welcomed back to the King's Peace and be rewarded for ridding the Realm of the traitor Robb. We see how Roose Bolton wagers Tywin's promises against the possible story of Roose Bolton the evil maimer a one-handed Jaime might tell his father would he return to King's Landing. But Tywin only imagine an accident, an arrow gone astray in the field or during a hunt. He did not want an atrocity like the Red Wedding, just the assassination of Robb Stark. Without him, and with Sybell Westerling ensuring that he had no living offspring, the Stark/Tully rebellion would be at an end.

The Red Wedding how it happened was the brainchild of Walder Frey, Roose Bolton, and Lame Lothar Frey. Walder Frey commanded it, and Lame Lothar and Roose Bolton laid out the details. The political position of the House Frey and especially of House Bolton increased through the Red Wedding as it happened. Roose got rid of many men-at-arms of Stark loyalists, and got plenty of Stark loyalists as hostages, and the Freys got plenty of Riverlords, or their heirs, as hostages, which put them in the position to really get the rewards Lord Tywin had promised them.

I really don't see what Littlefinger should have gained through the Red Wedding. He was occupied with his own schemes during this time. Planning Sansa's escape, double-crossing the Tyrells, and the poisoning of Joffrey should be enough to keep everyone occupied. Tywin did not even tell Cersei or Tyrion about the Red Wedding. So why should he talk about it with Petyr? Yes, he trusted him to a degree, but there is no indication that he favored his advice over Tyrion's or Kevan's advice. Littlefinger did go to Tywin to tell him about Sansa's planned marriage to Willas (it served his need to keep Sansa at court until Joffrey's marriage), but that does not mean that Tywin would go and ask Littlefinger's advice in delicate matters. For Tywin Littlefinger was a valuable asset, a tool who had repeatedly proven his loyalty and was rewarded for his service, but he was not yet part of his inner circle, nor do I believe he would ever have made him such. He was of too low-born.