[BOOK SPOILERS]So, how does Stannis know?

[Werthead]

In the books, Stannis and Jon Arryn discover the truth of Joffrey's parentage by working together, and Stannis returns home before he can suffer the same convenient death as Jon so he can start calling his banners and preparing for war.

In the TV series, however, there is no mention at all of Stannis being involved in the investigation, or even that he's a member of the small council. So on TV, how does Stannis find out about Joffrey's parentage?

Several possibilities present themselves:

1) He was involved in the investigation but this has gone completely unnoticed by anyone involved.

2) Jon Arryn sent a secret letter or note informing Stannis of the real situation before he died.

3) Eddard's note to Stannis that he wrote in last week's episode makes it to Stannis and isn't intercepted (as it was in the books).

4) Stannis had no idea at all, but Melisandre saw it in her flames and told him about it.

Interesting to see which explanation the TV series goes for. 3) would be the simplest and most elegant, I think, and it would also explain Stannis's curiously lax timing in the novel (where he doesn't claim the throne until after Renly has done it despite knowing what the score is weeks or months before AGoT even begins).

[phoenix_rising]

In the books, Stannis and Jon Arryn discover the truth of Joffrey's parentage by working together, and Stannis returns home before he can suffer the same convenient death as Jon so he can start calling his banners and preparing for war.

In the TV series, however, there is no mention at all of Stannis being involved in the investigation, or even that he's a member of the small council. So on TV, how does Stannis find out about Joffrey's parentage?

Several possibilities present themselves:

1) He was involved in the investigation but this has gone completely unnoticed by anyone involved.

2) Jon Arryn sent a secret letter or note informing Stannis of the real situation before he died.

3) Eddard's note to Stannis that he wrote in last week's episode makes it to Stannis and isn't intercepted (as it was in the books).

4) Stannis had no idea at all, but Melisandre saw it in her flames and told him about it.

Interesting to see which explanation the TV series goes for. 3) would be the simplest and most elegant, I think, and it would also explain Stannis's curiously lax timing in the novel (where he doesn't claim the throne until after Renly has done it despite knowing what the score is weeks or months before AGoT even begins).

I say # 1

littlefinger and varys know and they know that stannis knows, but dont reveal said knowledge for obvious reasons

thats an easy one for D&D to "fix"

[Lord Varys]

I doubt that there was an 'investigation' in the books. At least as far as Stannis was concerned. I rather believe Stannis figured the truth out, or decided that his opinion about his brother's children was the truth, and then went to Jon Arryn for help to convince Robert. The whole book thing and the visiting of the bastards could have been just a means to convince Jon Arryn of the truth, especially as I'm pretty sure that Jon was not that eager to believe Stannis' sad story, as he was the one who arranged the Lannister marriage in the first place...

I'm pretty sure Jon Arryn was in denial at first, and needed to be convinced. And even after he started to believe the truth, he most likely was not that eager to go to Robert with this story, at least without solid proof, and for the very same reasons Ned ended up not telling Robert the truth.

As for the series, well, I guess Stannis could learn the truth through this letter, although I'm sure guard-extra-guy was supposed to travel on the same ship as Ned's children, so it's not that likely that he is going to get away. Especially as Cersei needs to know about Ned's 'treason' as well, during her conversation with Sansa.

Stannis should have found out the truth himself, in my opinion, the same he has in the books, and I also think he has to, because only if he had found out himself, and believed it himself, he would have the iron will to claim the crown himself. If someone had told him, even someone as honorable as Ned, there could and would always be doubts.

But then, we actually do not know how Stannis grew suspicious or found out about the incest in the books, either...

[Anomandaris86]

Yeah I was wondering about that. I seem to remember something about Jon Arryn seeing how Cersei and Jaime acted with one another and from there started to get his first hints. Anyone care to refresh my memory?

As for Stannis finding out, I'd go with option 3. I'd forgotten completely that it had been intercepted in the books anyway.

[Steel_Wind]

Yeah I was wondering about that. I seem to remember something about Jon Arryn seeing how Cersei and Jaime acted with one another and from there started to get his first hints. Anyone care to refresh my memory?

As for Stannis finding out, I'd go with option 3. I'd forgotten completely that it had been intercepted in the books anyway.

Stannis did not figure it out on his own. He went to Jon Arryn with the "suspicions" he had, but did not tell Jon Arryn their source. Stannis knew that Robert was not likely to believe the brother who stood to profit from the accusation -- it would seem self-serving; moreover, Robert would never believe in the "proof" Stannis had, either. So Stannis went to Jon Arryn with his "suspicions" and Jon Arryn set out about investigating, looking for some proof.

As Jon Arryn reached his conclusion and arrived at the truth, Lysa Arryn, at the urging of Littlefinger, struck with the poison through the squire, who we later know as "Ser Hugh of the Vale". The poison was not effective and Jon Arryn's Maester stopped Jon Arryn from dying. Knowing what Arryn was investigating (because Arryn's request of Pycelle for the book was extremely unusual) the Grand Maester dismissed Arryn's Maester and took over his "care". Pycelle, acting on his own for the benefit of House Lannister, then poisoned Jon again and finished the deed.

Cersei was at Casterly Rock at the time. It wasn't her.

But how does Stannis know?: This only becomes clear when you think it through. Stannis knows because his wife's Priestess and shadow binder declares that Stannis is a prophesied hero of legend and the true king. Melisandre tells Stannis he is destined to be AA/TPWWP as he is the "true king" before the secret of Joff's birth is revealed by Arryn or Ned Stark. Melisandre believes Stannis to be the true king and seeks him out well before these events occur, as:

• She believes the prophecy of "The Prince that was Promised" means a male heir, not a female one, and so Melisandre discounts Daenerys for this reason. Aemon tells Same in AFFC that this may well be a translation error (but the jury is out on that);
  
• She sees Robert's death and knows it can't be him;
  
• She has seen Viserys crowned in her flames and knows he will soon die and therefore, cannot be AA; and
  
• She knows that Robert's children are not actually his children as she has seen that in her flames as well.
  

Ergo, Melisandre deduces that TPWWP must be Stannis Baratheon. That critical deduction is what has driven nearly everything that Mel has done in the years since she arrived at it.

So after insinuating herself into Stannis' wife's confidence in order to gain access to Stannis, Melisandre goes to Stannis and convinces him that he is AA/TPWWP and tells him what she has seen in the flames. Stannis believes her enough to go to Jon Arryn about it.

After Jon Arryn dies, Stannis realizes he is in danger and it is time to gird for war. He withdraws to Dragonstone and believes Robert cannot be saved -- at this point, Stannis becomes a true believer in Mel's flames.

And Bob's your Uncle and there you have it. That's the book version of events.

The TV series strives to be far less complicated, but even so, it is clear from the first scene with Jaime and Cersei in the Sept that they didn't know what Jon Arryn knew, but thought that he may well have known their secret. They did not cop to poisoning him however, even to one another.

[Lord Varys]

Steel_Wind,

Ser Hugh of the Vale has nothing to do with Jon Arryn's death. Lysa poisoned her husband herself. She gave him the Tears of Lys, not that poor squire. He is just a red herring by Littlefinger and Varys to prevent Ned from looking for the actual poisoner.

Varys was involved in this to prevent any revelation of the incest, as the incest being revealed would have lead inevitably to war, and he did not want a war at this time. Littlefnger wanted to prevent Stannis from becoming King, or Robert's immediate heir (which would have happened if Cersei's children were executed), and Lysa wanted to prevent her son from becoming Stannis' ward on Dragonstone.

And Pycelle did not poison Jon Arryn, either. He prevented his recovery, though, by sending Colemon away who intended to give him a vomitive agent, which could have saved him before the Tears of Lys had finished their work. He did not give him another poison or an additional dose of the Tears.

And Melisandre can't have been the source of Stannis' knowledge, either. Before he left for Dragonstone at the beginning of AGoT, he scarcely was at Dragonstone at all. He was not close to Melisandre, and had no chance of being influenced by her or his wife, and he certainly would not believed her, if she tried to tell him something like that. But he would have had to have suspicions about Jaime/Cersei way before AGoT begins, as this whole 'investigation' takes place before the story begins. Stannis only begins to listen to Melisandre a year or so later at the beginning of ACoK, and even then he only does so after Davos delivers him his bad news about Renly and the loyalty of the Stormlords.

Stannis only starts to consider him being Azor Ahai a real possibility in ASoS - and even then, he does not really believe in this tale, if you ask me, but he starts to act the way a guy like Azor Ahai would have to act when he goes to the Wall. Before that, all he believes in and thinks he is, is that he is the true and rightful King of Westeros, which is of course entirely different from being Azor Ahai.

As to Melisandre's approach to/opinion of the Targaryens in exile, that's just speculation on your part. We don't know what she thought about them yet, as this issue has never been raised by her, or with her being present. She could have simply forgotten them, or never thought about them. We don't know how and why she came to Dragonstone, either.

[Hyper]

How does Stannis know??? I think it is rather obvious, since I read the book recently. Ned sent him a letter describing the situation. (we even saw Ned send the letter in the last episode!) Maybe I did not play close enough attention, but I do believe that at least one of Ned's letters got through to Stannis in the book.

[Arrogant Bastard]

How does Stannis know??? I think it is rather obvious, since I read the book recently. Ned sent him a letter describing the situation. (we even saw Ned send the letter in the last episode!) Maybe I did not play close enough attention, but I do believe that at least one of Ned's letters got through to Stannis in the book.

Actually I believe that letter was intercepted by the Lannisters and Ned's man was killed. In the book Stannis was investigating with Jon Arryn, learned the truth, and that's why he fled to Dragonstone instead of staying on the council.

For the show, I believe the letter will reach Stannis and that's how he'll know; it's too late to explain that he was with Jon and the letter reaching him makes a lot of sense. In fact, from looking at HBO's guide, it seems like in their description of Stannis he does not have a seat on the council and resides at Dragonstone permanently. They could also throw in Melisandre seeing it in the flames and confirming Ned's letter.

[Anomandaris86]

Ser Hugh of the Vale has nothing to do with Jon Arryn's death. Lysa poisoned her husband herself. She gave him the Tears of Lys, not that poor squire. He is just a red herring by Littlefinger and Varys to prevent Ned from looking for the actual poisoner.

Then why did the Lannisters kill him? Because they suspected he might have known what Jon Arryn knew?

[Nick Of Troy]

Then why did the Lannisters kill him? Because they suspected he might have known what Jon Arryn knew?

I always assumeds that was just Gregor being Gregor IE eager to kill someone at a friendly tourny

[Prankster]

I have to admit, when I read the book, I didn't realize Stannis was privy to any special knowledge; I just assumed he had heard the rumours which had begun to circulate by then (after all, quite a lot of people were witness to Ned claiming that Joffrey wasn't legitimate, even if they didn't hear about the incest) and put two and two together.

[Rand]

Yeah the way I had interpreted in the book was that Stannis was part of the investigation with Jon Arryn. To what extent I'm not sure, whether he Arryn only confided in him at the end, was an active participant throughout, or maybe even started the investigation. After all If anyone would catch on to Jamie & Cersei taking funny looks at each other and become suspicious from it you'd think that it would be Stannis.

From there again the full details are never known, but with the knowledge Stannis realizes he's the true heir, figures Robert is to useless to confide in or do something against it and will likely get himself killed soon, so he retreats to Dragonstone and begins gathering his army.

As for the speculation on when Melisandre showed up, I wonder if it had anything to do with the red comet? Without a doubt that should have been Dany's doing, and something like that would sure to trigger a religious lunatic like Melisandre to think the end is near and go searching for her champion.

[OneTrueWarg]

This has nothing to do with this topic persay but i didnt know where to put it. What is Stannis doing? I feel like he is a crazy person trying to summon a god to defend the realm against the others and the winter. Now the way I read this in ASOS is that he is putting leeches in a fire and using kings blood to summon the god. With this outrageous deduction in the book he points to leeches and says the names of the kings that are alive at the time I believe he mentions Robb Stark,Joffery Baratheon, and Daenerys Targaryen. I'm not 100% positive on the kings he mentions but I think its those. I know he didnt want to sacrifice Roberts bastard into the fire and I'm just confused about his whole religious beliefs we shall call it. The way I am understanding this is that he is waiting for the perfect time to bring this upon the realm because he has seen into the fire as well but that doesnt mean that he was completely honest with Melisandre about what he saw. Someone help I feel stupid because I must have missed something important.

[TheWhiteWolf]

I always assumeds that was just Gregor being Gregor IE eager to kill someone at a friendly tourny

The mountain wanted to win that tourney and as The Hound pointed out he knew that Ser Hugh was poorly armoured and not fitted properly an advantage he took but which also worked out nicely for Varys and Little finger

[The Anti-Targ]

TV series-wise I think it might be 3. IIRC The dude delivering the note was not directed to travel with the girls but to get out of dodge immediately, so he may have won through before Cersei had a chance to close up shop.

In the books it is noted that Stannis and Jon Arryn visit at least one of the bastards together, I can't remember whether it's Gendry or Barra, I'm thinking Gendry. So Stannis knew what Jon knew.

Stannis could never lay the claim of incestuous bastardy himself because, as said already, it would be seen as self serving and would be quickly shot down as such. It had to be revealed by someone with nothing directly to gain.

Doesn't matter, Tywin's much hoped for 1000 year dynasty doesn't look like it'll last 1000 days.

Yeah and I always read it that the Mountain just saw an opportunity to kill someone accidentally-on-purpose, 'cause that's the way he rolls. No big conspiracy there.

[Anomandaris86]

The mountain wanted to win that tourney and as The Hound pointed out he knew that Ser Hugh was poorly armoured and not fitted properly an advantage he took but which also worked out nicely for Varys and Little finger

That still doesn't explain how Ser Hugh got so quickly knighted and how he was able to afford his new armor.

[The Anti-Targ]

This from one of the Unsullied (people of the Television without pity website who've vowed not to read the books):

But. I'd just like to say that I very much doubt that the message to Stannis won't reach him. It makes absolutely no sense from a story telling perspective to introduce a new, mysterious, power player, show us the actions of bringing him into the story, only to then have an off screen "Oh, that letter thingy? Dropped it in the john, sorry." fizzle. The Lobster is coming, sez I.

So for those who only know the TV show it makes a lot of sense from a story telling perspective that Ned's letter makes it to Dragonstone.

As to Ser Hughs sudden rise in fortunes, if LF and/or Varys want to set up Hugh as a red herring for Jon Arryn's death then there's no reason other than their plotting and forward thinking.

[j52y]

There's an option 5: They reveal in the second season that Stannis used to be on the small council and aided Jon in his investigation.

Something about the show that has irked me to this point is that they haven't mentioned that Stannis fled King's Landing or that Robert (Robin in the show) was supposed to squire for him in Dragonstone. Both of those things are relatively important, but easily could be revealed later. Like, when Lysa tells Petyr that she killed Jon for him, she could also slip in anger that he wanted to take Robin away from her and squire for Stannis.

I hope we get a Small Council meeting in the next two episodes where they talk about what to do with Renly, Stannis, and Robb. There's a lot of natural exposition that would happen in a scene like that, as well as some good characterization.

[Shakey]

So far, the TV series loves to open scenes with a letter being read. I predict that will be the case for Stannis.

If we assume the letter gets through, the first scene of Stannis may very well be him reading the leader aloud to his advisers.

It will also serve as a reminder to viewers, as the letter likely spells out and reminds us of the many events of the previous season.

[The Anti-Targ]

Something about the show that has irked me to this point is that they haven't mentioned that Stannis fled King's Landing or that Robert (Robin in the show) was supposed to squire for him in Dragonstone. Both of those things are relatively important, but easily could be revealed later. Like, when Lysa tells Petyr that she killed Jon for him, she could also slip in anger that he wanted to take Robin away from her and squire for Stannis.

Well the sending Bobby Arryn to ward with Stannis could still be in the Cat/Lord Frey conversation in the next episode. Frey says Jon Arryn turned him down for looking after booby Bobby (talk about frying pan fire situation) in favour of sending him to Stannis, but that mad Lysa spat the dummy over that idea. Cat does a double take and says "What? I heard he was Lannister bound."