BOOK SPOILERS] Renly's plan

[Grumkin]

Renly tries to persuade Ned to strike while the castle sleeps, and offers his own men to help. He implores Ned to act quickly, for each moment he delays gives Cersei time to prepare. I don't believe, however, that Renly was aware that Ned had confronted Cersei before Robert had even returned from his hunting trip. She would have been well prepared by the time their plan was set in motion. Would Ned and Renly's combined forces be able to overwhelm Cersei's without the element of surprise? If Renly knew that Cersei had been tipped off so far in advance, would he have even proposed his plan?

[Vuron]

I'm not sure how well anyone's plan would have worked without the gold cloaks. It seems to me that whoever gets the 2000 gold cloaks is going to win.

I think for Renly's plan to work, he would have had to kill Joffrey and Tommen, and not just take them hostage. Cercei would have needed someone to place on the throne in order to bribe Slynt with a lordship. With Joffrey and Tommen dead, Cercei has no real power for herself and I doubt she could just name herself queen.

[reiver]

Tbf if Renly held the Red Keep, even with his hundred or so men, plus Ned's and the pulled up the drawbridge... Well the goldcloaks would be able to nothing.

[Rand]

I would suspect that if Ned had gone with Renly plan Littlefinger would have backed them. Renly's plan wasn't much different than what Littlefinger advised Ned to do and I got the impression he would have followed through on it if Ned wasn't so insistent on Stannis.

[Xenophon]

TV-Renly or book-Renly? TV-Renly's plan to make himself King would almost certainly have meant the Lannister men would fight to the death, and might have led the KG to side with Cersei. Book-Renly's plan to seize Joff and declare Ned regent was safer, as the KG would probably sided with them. They still probably would have won either way (there are only a couple hundred Lannister men, IIRC, and they would have had the advantage of surprise), but book-Renly's plan was much more feasible. Of course, book-Renly's plan had the problem that Ned wasn't willing to make Joffrey King, but Renly didn't know that.

[Bronn Stone]

TV-Renly or book-Renly? TV-Renly's plan to make himself King would almost certainly have meant the Lannister men would fight to the death, and might have led the KG to side with Cersei. Book-Renly's plan to seize Joff and declare Ned regent was safer, as the KG would probably sided with them. They still probably would have won either way (there are only a couple hundred Lannister men, IIRC, and they would have had the advantage of surprise), but book-Renly's plan was much more feasible. Of course, book-Renly's plan had the problem that Ned wasn't willing to make Joffrey King, but Renly didn't know that.

Regarding the books, I think Eddard was perfectly willing to declare himself regent until the heir comes of age. Then declare Stannis the heir and that he is of age. He could assume the role just long enough to ensure the transition. He just wasn't willing to prevent Cersei from fleeing with Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen. Because he knew the children were not guilty of their parents incest and felt no need to murder them. But he knew that even as regent he'd not have had the power to save the children once their origin was known. Especially since Stannis is such a stickler for the law and the law condemns the spawn of incest to death.

[j52y]

Cersei may have been prepared for Ned's guard, but she wouldn't have been ready for the Tyrell guard as well. I think they would have been able to kidnap Joffrey and Tommen relatively easily enough. Littlefinger likes to be on the side that wins, so I think he would've had the gold cloaks side with Ned and Renly. But this would have cause a war, naturally. Where would the noble families lie?

The Starks and the North obviously would've sided with Ned. he could sent ravens and had the bannermen come down with Robb leading them.

The Tullys and the Riverlands would side with the North as well

The Arryns and the Vale still would've remained neutral.

The Lannisters and the Westerlands naturally would've been against it.

The Tyrells and the Reach would've backed Renly, and thus joined the North

The Stormlords would support Renly as well, as they did in the war of the five kings.

So, it would appear that it's Stark, Tully, Tyrell, and Baratheon vs. Lannister. But there are a couple wild cards.

The Martells are Targaryen sympathizers, so they wouldn't support Renly. But they hate the Lannisters, but they also hate the Tyrells. I think Dorne would've stayed neutral.

The Greyjoys hate the Starks, but dislike the Lannisters even more. Would Balon still have rebelled in this senario? I think so. So, he would've helped the Lannisters by attacking the North, but the North would also have more allies against the Greyjoys.

Finally, what about Stannis on Dragonstone. Would he support Renly? What choice would he have? Would he still have Renly killed? And if Renly dies, would the Reach support Stannis? It seems to me that the biggest question of Renly's success actually lies with Stannis.

If Stannis supports Renly, then its:

Starks, Tully, Tyrell, Baratheon, Dragonstone vs. Lannister vs. Greyjoy. This war would end rather quickly.

If Stannis declares for himself, its:

Starks, Tully, Tyrell, Bratheon vs. Lannister vs. Greyjoy vs. Dragonstone. This war still seems to favor the alliance, but if Stannis is able to kill Renly, what would that do for the alliance?